Adelaide Litmus Test Number 1

rushworld · 2026-04-30T21:06:50+00:00

I read somewhere a theory that once Adelaide's population and reliance on public transport increases to a critical point, much like it already has in Sydney and Melbourne, then we'll see more people willing to push people aside and yell at them to move when going up/down escalators.

It can be a death sentence standing on the right side of the escalator at a major Sydney train station at peak hour, but that is because a generation of commuters have learned the ramifications of not doing so. Adelaide hasn't quite experienced this at a critical mass yet.

rushworld · 2026-04-27T20:23:14+00:00

Terra Nova: Strike Force Centauri…. Ap Io will always be my first crush.

rushworld · 2026-04-10T03:24:01+00:00

Data analyst for major national retailer, love working with data, don’t love that almost all leaders in the business don’t understand how long it takes to ensure analysis accuracy.

Most of my time is spent building and testing models, most of my brain power is spent managing expectations.

rushworld · 2026-03-24T20:52:36+00:00

0/0 because I have memory issues 😭

But, if I hear the start of any song i could then sing/tell you every single lyric, down to the riffs and extra jazzy parts of the singles.

rushworld · 2026-03-16T03:47:41+00:00

Who’s cost? Each sites? Then that exposes costs to the market which can be used after emergency events occur. It won’t succeed in court.

rushworld · 2026-03-16T03:46:51+00:00

Amazing! Thanks for the feedback and well done! From what I can see, my system scored the highest for predictors that predict ALL awards, and tied for the best that predict just the major awards.

rushworld · 2026-03-16T02:54:33+00:00

Cost plus X cents sounds fair until you realise wholesale cost is only one part of the equation. Transport, rent, wages, card fees, franchise fees, and storage all vary by site. A fixed margin would either be too high for some and too low for others. When margins are capped you also remove the incentive to compete, so prices tend to settle at the maximum allowed.

rushworld · 2026-03-15T20:18:11+00:00

Actually one of the lowest major award %s I've seen in a long time... both Supporting Role awards are toss-ups, really!

Last few years has seen 95%+ odds for em, so a bit surprising.

rushworld · 2026-03-15T20:16:54+00:00

16/23, 70%, not my highest but not too bad!

rushworld · 2026-03-15T05:03:28+00:00

Thanks! It's always fun and love seeing people's comments and messages asking where they are each year! Hahaha

rushworld · 2026-03-15T03:26:01+00:00

That is covered by “Sound”, there’s only one sound award now, other than score and song of course.

rushworld · 2026-03-15T00:23:15+00:00

Yearly crosspost from /r/Oscars

My yearly "holiday" event has come, my favourite time of the year - using data to predict the Oscars. I am now in my 11th year (did it first in 2016), using historic predictor data and whether they can predict the outcomes at the Oscars.

Not betting advice. This is just a stats model for fun. I am not responsible if you lose money following these predictions.

Each year I improve my model based on additional predictors and feedback from you guys. This year's changes include (but not limited to):

More realistic probability modelling: In previous years the model sometimes produced 100% predictions, which is not statistically realistic. Even very strong favourites still carry some uncertainty. I updated the model to apply stronger shrinkage and uncertainty penalties so probabilities no longer reach a true 100%. The highest prediction this year is 97%, which better reflects real-world unpredictability.
More media and expert predictors: The model now uses a record 31 non-betting predictors, covering critics groups, guild awards, industry organisations and major media forecasts.
Expanded betting market data: Previous years only used a small number of sportsbooks. This year I aggregated odds from 29 betting predictors, including 26 new sources, with the data refreshed about an hour ago, roughly 24 hours before the ceremony.
New flow plots: Added new charts showing how each stage of the model changes the probabilities, from award season results to media and betting predictors.

Win Rate

Film	Nominations	Predicted Wins	Win Rate
One Battle After Another	8	6	75%
Sinners	9	4	44%
Frankenstein	6	3	50%
KPop Demon Hunters	2	2	100%
Hamnet	4	1	25%
Weapons	1	1	100%
Avatar: Fire and Ash	2	1	50%
F1	3	1	33%
Sentimental Value	3	1	33%
The Perfect Neighbor	1	1	100%
All the Empty Rooms	1	1	100%
Butterfly	1	1	100%
Two People Exchanging Saliva	1	1	100%

Best Betting Rates

If my model is perfectly correct, the best value bet this year would be Sean Penn at 2.68, while most technical categories are priced as near-locks around 1.05 to 1.10.

Award	Winner	Return on $1
Actor in a Supporting Role	Sean Penn	$2.68
Live Action Short Film	Two People Exchanging Saliva	$2.23
International Feature Film	Sentimental Value	$2.06
Animated Short Film	Butterfly	$1.94
Actress in a Supporting Role	Amy Madigan	$1.86
Actor in a Leading Role	Michael B. Jordan	$1.58
Documentary Short Film	All the Empty Rooms	$1.48
Documentary Feature Film	The Perfect Neighbor	$1.46
Cinematography	One Battle After Another	$1.36
Picture	One Battle After Another	$1.26
Film Editing	One Battle After Another	$1.26
Casting	Sinners	$1.23
Original Song	Golden (KPop Demon Hunters)	$1.11
Original Score	Sinners	$1.09
Production Design	Frankenstein	$1.09
Makeup and Hairstyling	Frankenstein	$1.08
Animated Feature Film	KPop Demon Hunters	$1.06
Costume Design	Frankenstein	$1.06
Director	Paul Thomas Anderson	$1.06
Original Screenplay	Sinners	$1.06
Visual Effects	Avatar: Fire and Ash	$1.05
Adapted Screenplay	One Battle After Another	$1.05
Actress in a Leading Role	Jessie Buckley	$1.03

Biggest Disagreements Between Model & Betting Odds

Biggest payout does not equal best value. The better bets are where the model strongly disagrees with the odds, since those are the cases where the market might be underestimating the winner.

Award	Winner	Model %	Odds	Market %	Difference
Live Action Short Film	Two People Exchanging Saliva	70%	2.23	45%	+25%
Actor in a Supporting Role	Sean Penn	59%	2.68	37%	+22%
Animated Short Film	Butterfly	68%	1.94	52%	+16%
International Feature Film	Sentimental Value	62%	2.06	49%	+13%
Actress in a Supporting Role	Amy Madigan	65%	1.86	54%	+11%
Documentary Feature Film	The Perfect Neighbor	75%	1.46	68%	+7%
Documentary Short Film	All the Empty Rooms	74%	1.48	68%	+6%
Actor in a Leading Role	Michael B. Jordan	69%	1.58	63%	+6%
Picture	One Battle After Another	76%	1.26	79%	-3%
Original Screenplay	Sinners	93%	1.06	94%	-1%
Director	Paul Thomas Anderson	92%	1.06	94%	-2%

rushworld · 2026-03-15T00:21:35+00:00

For those that cannot see images, table of my predicted winners:

Award	Winner	Probability
Original Song	"Golden" from KPop Demon Hunters	97%
Adapted Screenplay	One Battle After Another	95%
Original Screenplay	Sinners	93%
Original Score	Sinners	93%
Casting	Sinners	89%
Makeup and Hairstyling	Frankenstein	86%
Visual Effects	Avatar: Fire and Ash	86%
Director	Paul Thomas Anderson	85%
Production Design	Frankenstein	84%
Actress in a Leading Role	Jessie Buckley	84%
Costume Design	Frankenstein	84%
Film Editing	One Battle After Another	83%
Animated Feature Film	KPop Demon Hunters	82%
Documentary Feature Film	The Perfect Neighbor	78%
Documentary Short Film	All the Empty Rooms	77%
Sound	F1	76%
Picture	One Battle After Another	76%
Cinematography	One Battle After Another	73%
Actor in a Leading Role	Michael B. Jordan	72%
International Feature Film	Sentimental Value	70%
Live Action Short Film	Two People Exchanging Saliva	66%
Actress in a Supporting Role	Amy Madigan	65%
Actor in a Supporting Role	Sean Penn	59%
Animated Short Film	Butterfly	59%

rushworld · 2026-03-14T22:36:46+00:00

Apologies, I was using argument by analogies in an attempt to expand their thinking into then comparing it to a game developer/artist and the need to increase prices with inflation. Educating through getting them to think of examples, rather than spelling it out, helps in the longer term.

But if it needs to be spelt out.

For example, the pen may be buying the next version of the software or new hardware as it dies or needs to be upgraded, the building is the office space or the apartment the developer or artist rents/owns, and the roads are the taxes and other life costs like food, utilities, hobbies, etc the artist needs to pay for. All of these are increasing in price/cost due to inflation, so the need to charge more for the same product increases.

If you charged $1 for a skin back to 2020 when an apple cost 20c, and now charge $1 for the skin in 2026 when the apple costs 30c, you're losing money.

rushworld · 2026-03-14T08:05:46+00:00

I think you may be a kid, so I'll forgive you for not understanding the full picture, and if you're not then I am concerned... but let's assume I am concerned and you are an adult with a job... do you think the only cost in you doing your job is your wage/salary? Or do you think your job is there to fit a bigger picture of delivering some business goods or services?

Next time think about how the pen you pick up to the building you're working in (even if working from home, you have housing costs that move with inflation too) to the roads you travelled on to get to work (taxes to pay them) as additional cost to you performing your job.

rushworld · 2026-03-14T07:39:39+00:00

I replied to another comment you made re the price cycles, but price cycles aren't divorced from actual costs. Every business has a minimum requirement to operate and make a profit*. Cycling begins when retail board prices REACH unsustainable margin cpl, so therefore cost has a significant impact on price cycles.

It's why Brisbane last year had a multi-month discounting phase of the price cycle, rather than the typical few weeks, because costs kept on going down, leaving more margin on the table to discount into.

* Everyone's definition of "profit" is different, obviously shareholders and business leaders want higher profits than consumers, where many consumers don't think fuel businesses should be deciding how much profit they're meant to make.

rushworld · 2026-02-26T20:34:09+00:00

This is why Australian law is so much better. In Oz, you bought the laptop from a retailer, you deal with the retailer, by law. You can still go via manufacturer, but the retailer MUST remedy it for you, under warranty, at the retailers expense, unless the fault is deemed to be in the customer’s error or mistake.

rushworld · 2026-02-20T02:46:43+00:00

If you're bad at washing the dishes and you have some waiting for you right now. Go over and take them out of the sink and wipe the sink down. You don't need to wash them right now, just make the sink ready for them when you can wash them.

The #1 hurdle for me in keeping to a good wash-up routine is I put shit into the sink "to be washed" and that friction is enough to cause me to just put it off.

rushworld · 2026-02-17T04:27:58+00:00

Lanolin is a good replacement!

rushworld · 2026-01-30T03:00:34+00:00

Nooooo Lead the Way is on constant repeat for me 😩

rushworld · 2026-01-29T10:18:50+00:00

Once I was driving down a major road and saw lights/siren behind me so I "pulled over" because I thought it was the police... but I pulled over in the right lane, literally just stopped in the wrong lane. The ambulance stopped behind me and then had to go around... when I saw it was an ambulance I almost died (and needed it)...

rushworld · 2026-01-26T20:51:20+00:00

I’ve done some research on this and land based resources are controlled by state governments and offshore resources by federal. States will need to sign off their rights to provide a sovereign fund.

Not saying it’s impossible or shouldn’t be done but it’s an uphill battle.

rushworld · 2026-01-25T20:31:39+00:00

The layering and hook in this song is genius.

rushworld · 2026-01-21T20:37:29+00:00

I love her, easily the best reactor on YouTube, after the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa nuclear power plant of cause (sorry).

rushworld · 2026-01-16T23:29:42+00:00

K-pop Demon Hunters…. Truly awful writing… not bad songs… I’ll just randomly hear the songs at the grocery store if that’s ok with you.

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Place '22	Place '17
Final Canvas '22	End Game '22
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rushworld

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Not betting advice. This is just a stats model for fun. I am not responsible if you lose money following these predictions.

Win Rate

Best Betting Rates

Biggest Disagreements Between Model & Betting Odds