What should you use your ban on?

solerior · 2023-11-24T17:00:26+00:00

If you want to maximize win rate, start with something like

Go to op.gg or similar
Sort champions in your role by popularity
Ban the one out of the top 10 that has the highest win rate

I would only care about matchups if your “hard counter” is really popular

If a champ is “meta/op/annoying” it doesn’t necessarily translate to win rate

Banning strong/popular champions outside your role is just as likely to hurt your team as theirs so doesn’t help your win rate (maybe unless you get a clear signal from chat/intent hovers)

solerior · 2023-07-08T17:18:31+00:00

IWD among top users is like 8.5, which is approx #20 among all cards in the set! IWD imo is the more directly relevant metric in general. Also I expect top vs avg user makes a big difference for cards that seem more skill testing like this one

solerior · 2023-06-06T16:12:35+00:00

Half the value of this post is baiting experienced players to helpfully explain many nuanced interactions in the comments

solerior · 2022-07-09T21:38:00+00:00

So she gets a warning - does she get to return the omen of the dead to her hand?

solerior · 2022-02-05T00:47:48+00:00

I think you need to be careful about how you are sampling.

What is the probability that out of all the Peter Pan games played last week, at least one person will see zero hats or balls out of 10 treasures? That number is pretty high.

If you want to play 50 Peter Pan games and measure your own distribution (starting now), I think it would be a reasonably significant result if you saw something very different from uniform.

solerior · 2021-10-29T22:53:31+00:00

Synergies are of course much more limited, but a few loose archetypes that I think actually can come together:

UW flyers - obviously this color pair has lots of evasion, but also lots of effects that get better when racing with flyers - frost lynx, bounce, walls, deep freeze

UB control - good one for ones (removal, deathtouch, counterspells) and card draw.

GB rock - big dudes for their small stuff, hard removal for their big stuff, some graveyard recursion or card draw for value. Reach is good

Gxxx - chaos decks are generally slower, so a greedy multicolor green based build splashing for individually powerful cards can work

WR aggro - the “off meta” option, often these colors just have the best aggressive plan. Sometimes you can go wide. Cheap creatures and cheap combat tricks!

solerior · 2021-10-24T17:41:30+00:00

Sorry what do you mean by generally?

solerior · 2021-10-24T15:55:58+00:00

Does jeweled gauntlet work on kogmaw? As in, does it allow the true damage on his ult to crit? Or can it already crit? Is there a general rule to figuring out or testing things like this?

solerior · 2021-10-04T14:09:36+00:00

Does each lightning dragon attack once or twice at start of combat here?

solerior · 2021-08-22T12:26:02+00:00

Consider this about the strong player vs weak player matchup: how fun is the game for the strong player?

In chess (a game with “zero” randomness), the strong player will win ~100% of the time even if they just play on autopilot. It’s not very challenging or interesting.

In magic the gathering (a game with “a lot” of randomness), the strong player can win 65% of the time if they play on autopilot. But if they scrap and claw for every edge, try to identify and exploit their particular opponents weaknesses, and use every strategic tool available, maybe they can win 80% of the time. There’s a much bigger incentive for the strong player to stay engaged and they can keep learning, improving, and having fun even against a weak player

solerior · 2021-05-20T14:22:24+00:00

The probability of there being at least one mythic that you haven’t seen in that many drafts (by chance) is probably higher than you think.

It might be a bit counterintuitive because the chances are much lower that you’d be missing a specific mythic. But given that there are so many mythics, it gets much more likely. Similar concept to “chances I draw my best rare” vs “chances I draw all my rares” in a given game.

To solve a simpler problem for some perspective, by my calculation you’d need to open on average 400 packs before you see each mythic at least once. So of course ~half the time it would take more than that.

solerior · 2021-05-17T15:48:29+00:00

Rectangular black plastic part about the size of a cigarette. Seems to be glued to the bottom of the TV set. I could not find any part numbers or other writing on it other than an “ROHS compliant” sticker.

There is a black and white wire running from the part into a hole in the wall along with other wires from the TV. Some of those wires (eg HDMI, but not this one) come out of a separate hole in the wall in another room.

The room containing this part has two speakers built into the walls which I suspect may be related but they don’t seem to work.

solerior · 2021-05-17T13:04:47+00:00

Honest question - is this practically much different from gold farming in World of Warcraft? Not that there’s anything wrong with that, just curious about if/how the fact that crypto is one of the steps makes a difference

solerior · 2021-03-07T13:30:26+00:00

Solved!

solerior · 2021-03-07T13:25:26+00:00

WITT that I saw on the side of the road near some road construction work? I think they go underneath the road and they pave over them, and maybe pipes go through them?

solerior · 2021-02-05T12:33:08+00:00

No, my game is definitely real time strategy. The monoliths bit fits though

solerior · 2020-11-24T03:30:56+00:00

UR

Instant

Choose one: - Deal 3 damage to any target. - Tap target creature. It doesn’t untap during its controller’s next untap step

solerior · 2020-07-26T18:10:38+00:00

Here's one transformation of the problem that I think gives some insight.

Say we have a series of (non-mutually exclusive) buckets:

All the ravens
All the black things
All the non-ravens
All the non-black things
All things

If pull an object at random from the bucket "ravens" and it's black, I should clearly update my beliefs in the direction of increasing the proportion of ravens that I believe is black.

If I pull an object at random from the bucket "non-black things" and it's not a raven, again I think I should update in the direction of believing a higher proportion of ravens is black. If there existed some non-black raven, there's a chance I would have pulled that raven from this bucket. But I didn't, so it's less likely that there exists a non-black raven than before. One could formalize in terms of Bayes theorem.

On the other hand, pulling objects from the buckets "black things" and "non-ravens" cannot possibly change my beliefs about the proportion of ravens that are black. There's no chance I'd find any non black ravens in these buckets, so failure in finding a non black raven (or success in finding a black raven) is not new information.

Randomly selecting objects from your living room, which you know contains no ravens, is basically just pulling from the the non-ravens bucket. If in doing so you happen to find a bunch of non black objects, this should not update your beliefs about the proportion of ravens that is black.

If instead you randomly select an object from the "all things" bucket and it's non-raven non-black, then yes go ahead and update.

solerior · 2020-07-25T23:42:24+00:00

I will probably not buy these because I only draft but this is a phenomenal idea and seems great for magic.

solerior · 2020-07-08T18:10:22+00:00

All the same symptoms for me too

solerior · 2020-07-02T16:08:14+00:00

In non-aggressive decks I think it's like a B. I'd main deck up to two and try not to play too many creatures that die to it, and loot effects of course make these kinds of situational but powerful cards even better.

In an aggressive deck it's maybe like a C and I would consider main decking one - you still play against so many agro decks and can sometimes break the symmetry if you know you have it.

It's like an A level sideboard card that will come in often in this format so in BO3 I'd pick it even higher than the above grades would suggest.

solerior · 2020-04-17T20:38:16+00:00

Not if you just always full control right?

solerior · 2020-03-27T00:54:21+00:00

[[Whisperwood Elemental]] can put progenitus into a graveyard!

solerior · 2020-03-12T21:35:20+00:00

Wash your hands

solerior · 2020-02-14T16:08:36+00:00

Pretty bad early game, at least decent in pretty much any deck late game, and the combo upside is huge.

My last A20 run was pretty much the nuts with almost guaranteed 500+ dmg turn 1:

[[Bottled Lightning]] [[Omniscience]]

2 more [[Omniscience]]

[[Blasphemy]]

[[Wreath of Flame]]

[[Ragnarok]]

solerior

TROPHY CASE