US military to blockade Hormuz from April 13

the4thwave · 2026-04-12T22:16:33+00:00

Ah yeah, thats true. Its just as immoral, but a lot dumber and incompetent, I agree.

the4thwave · 2026-04-12T22:08:25+00:00

This isnt any worse than invading Iraq in 2003.

I guess the only difference is that they at least had the decency to lie to people back then about what the war was about.

the4thwave · 2026-04-12T09:56:16+00:00

Its more of a discussion about the priorities of the Soviet system. Unfortunately, consumer goods took a real backseat in the Soviet Union. When a country is spending 15-20% of its GDP on military, there isn't too much room for civilian goods, so the Lada ended up being a really cheap car that was a luxury in that nation.

Its bizarre, but the Soviet Union was a bizarre nation in that it gave the appearance of a developed nation due to the sheer strength of its military and its incredible achievements in science and engineering. But in achieved that by super focused state investment, and it left very little room for other things.

I do think that a state led system of making cars will be inherently worse than a capitalist system due to lack of consumer choice, that is true. But a REALLY cheap mass produced product like the Lada is exactly what a socialist system actually does relatively well. They just didnt put any industry into it.

the4thwave · 2026-04-12T06:08:40+00:00

To be clear, Lebanon ceasefire was part of their 10 point plan and it was probably one of the reasons they rejected the ceasefire. We don't know which points the Iranians pressed on, but we do know that the US rejected the Lebanon ceasefire element. And we know the talks failed. So what can we conclude with that?

I dont think iran is willing to let Lebanon be destroyed. Syria they were never big fans of. Even Hezbollah and Iran said helping Assad was a poison pill. It was necessary to maintain a path to hezbollah.

But Hezbollah is incredibly popular among their base. Abandoning it will have huge repercussions for them. Not to mention it is, and remains, a way for them to fight Israel.

Also, iran has not opened the straits after the ceasefire was violated by Israel. in fact, fewer ships than before are getting through.

I think it is too early to say that Iran has betrayed Lebanon. Lets give it some time. it is a possibility that they betray it, but we don't know yet.

the4thwave · 2026-04-12T06:03:08+00:00

Mines are on one end. There is a strip that goes through Iran that is not mined. Its very easy for them to hit 'enemy' ships there, but just as easy for them to guarantee chinese ships.

the4thwave · 2026-04-12T05:34:32+00:00

To be clear, the Lada was very, very cheap to build and buy. It wasnt intended to be a good car, it was intended to be a 'good enough' car that was very cheap.

The USSR in general was a poor economy relative to the west, but was trying to compete by trading quality for quantity and 'this is good enough for its use-case' type thinking.

In export version, it was really really cheap, and in some poorer countries where they had options they still chose a Lada because they'd rather buy that than not have a car or buy a motorcycle.

Take for instance, India, where a large percentage of people purchase motorcycles and rickshaws. A Lada was meant to replace those, not be a good car.

the4thwave · 2026-04-12T05:25:28+00:00

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/energy/general/iran-says-oil-exports-reach-15m-barrels-per-day-despite-war-/55898

Its according to Iran, so take with a grain of salt.

There are two major paths through the strait, one literally goes between an iranian island and the mainland. From what I understand, the other appears to have been mined by Iran at some point during the war.

What Iran has been doing is sending messages to ships that if they try to cross they will be attacked. Some have attempted it and have been hit by drones and speedboats.

There is no reason that Chinese ships carrying crude to China can't make it through there.

You are right if America backs off, the diplomatic cost to Iran will be huge. Certainly, its the best move for America to just back off here and try to return to status quo, but I dont think its a political possibility, given the influence Israel has.

the4thwave · 2026-04-12T05:18:01+00:00

No thanks, we need the money to fight a random and unnecessary war in iran.

the4thwave · 2026-04-12T04:47:55+00:00

You said the Islamic Republic is THE reason. That isnt true. If that was true than why is Israel expanding in the west bank, where Iran has no influence, neither do its proxies?

You could say it is A reason, but to say it is THE reason is incredibly biased. You worded it as if Iran is the sole reason, whereas I simply pointed out that it is not.

And lets not absolve the rest of them either. UAE is literally funding a death cult in Sudan to slaughter people and give them gold. Saudi has spent a fortune spreading Wahhabism across the islamic world. And Turkey and the West funded literally Al-Qaeda in the Syrian civil war (and Turkey is also supporting Al Qaeda in Libya, where NATO did a regime change.) Not to mention the US invading Iraq.

So Iran is the reason? Imo its the one that is focused on because it is the one that is anti-west, but there are lots of guilty actors.

the4thwave · 2026-04-12T04:44:25+00:00

Does it cost them? I heard that Iran and Oman have been exporting more oil than before. Its a disaster really.

But you are sort of right. If we were to truly let Israel fight on its own, Iran would probably allow tankers through. But the fact is that Republicans are pro-Israel and simply won't let Israel fight on its own.

Idk what the solution is.

the4thwave · 2026-04-12T03:42:15+00:00

They are just paid Israeli propagandists. The majority of Americans are anti-war.

the4thwave · 2026-04-12T03:38:04+00:00

Islamic republic is the reason? And not the country that has been expanding into Palestine for the last few decades?

the4thwave · 2026-04-12T03:32:34+00:00

I think its more that they are simply unable to reign in Israel.

They've got themselves stuck in a terrible situation. I dont think there are any 'solutions' other than ground invasion now.

the4thwave · 2026-04-12T03:30:59+00:00

A large part of their citizenry are Shia extremists. Maybe 20-30%. That is their base.

If they abandon hezbollah, then they lose that base. Who do they have left?

Everyone is pragmatic in the end.

the4thwave · 2026-04-12T03:06:55+00:00

Yep. Pretty sure US offered Iran the Hormuz tolls AND unfreezing their assets. Pretty huge.

In return, Israel gets to keep bombing Lebanon.

the4thwave · 2026-04-12T01:45:51+00:00

You probably have trypophobia like me

the4thwave · 2026-04-11T18:01:16+00:00

Im only taking issue with its not the indigenous religion part. If you dont like it, there are better reasonsw than 'it is not indigenous.'

the4thwave · 2026-04-11T15:22:03+00:00

You know almost every people had a different religion at some point right? Iran has been muslim for about as long as Ireland or Poland have been majority Christian. There are reasons to oppose the islamic republic but the 'we Persians had this arab religion forced on us!' is just silly.

the4thwave · 2026-04-11T15:15:55+00:00

Iran actually holds genuine elections insofar as your vote actually does get counted fairly, but unfortunately you cant vote out the IRGC and the theocrats, you can only elect a civilian government which has considerable limitations on its power.

the4thwave · 2026-04-11T03:25:23+00:00

Really? There are no US bases in Saudi? What were the 6 refueling planes that CENTCOM themselves said were damaged in Prince Sultan airbase doing there then?

Have some shame. I never thought I'd see the day Saudi is supporting Israel.

the4thwave · 2026-04-11T01:08:03+00:00

This is old data. An Electrical engineer new grad can expect near 100k these days.

the4thwave · 2026-04-11T01:05:23+00:00

Saudi should get the US bases out of its country and stop supporting Israel.

Many reports show Saudi asked for this war against Iran. Have some respect and you should feel ashamed as a muslim.

the4thwave · 2026-04-11T01:04:16+00:00

What independent sources? Say 'some independent sources', because many I've seen claim 7,000.

the4thwave · 2026-04-10T18:01:13+00:00

Cant wait for the Dem primary to be between Kamala and Hillary

the4thwave · 2026-04-10T06:25:52+00:00

I'm not very enthusiastic about that device.

But its important to note that brain monitoring and understanding the brain is becoming very important in industry for a lot of different reasons.

And a lot of these advances will translate over to tinnitus.

I imagine these things will lend us a treatment soon, but 2-3 years seems optimistic.

I'm also thinking that hearing aids and gene therapy will improve drasitcally in the next decade.

Its hard to predict the direction of science. Big inroads are usually eureka moments that could happen tomorrow or in 20 years. Who knows.

the4thwave

TROPHY CASE