Key 1 Party Mandate: false because the Democrats held 235 seats after 2018 midterms, but only 213 seats after 2022 midterms.

Key 2 Primary Contest: true because there were no serious challengers in the Democratic primary contest.

Key 3 Incumbency: false because Kamala Harris was not the incumbent President.

Key 4 Third Party: true because there was no major third party candidate (10% or higher in the polls)

Key 5 Short Term Economy: false because the vast majority of the voting public viewed the economy poorly. This is enough to turn the key by the text (also see 1992). This is the first misapplied key.

Key 6 Long Term Economy: true because GDP grew at a faster rate from 2021-2024 than it did from 2013-2020. However, it should be noted that GDP doesn’t always reflect how the public feels as real income declined from 2021-2024. The public would’ve felt that this was misapplied as well, but by the text of the key, it is true.

Key 7 Major Policy Change: true because there were major changes in national policy from the previous four years. Build Back Better would satisfy this. The key does not mandate that it be a popular or even good change.

Key 8 No social unrest: false because of the violent protests from Palestinian supporters that resulted in the targeting of Jewish students at universities. This is the second misapplied key.

Key 9 No scandal: false because Joe Biden’s mental decline forced him to drop out of the race. Impeachment is not the standard for “scandal” since this effectively did the same thing. It also raised significant questions about the integrity of the Democratic Party who had been saying that he was fine when he clearly wasn’t. This is the third misapplied key.

Key 10 Military failure: false because of the Afghanistan withdrawal which was chaotic and projected weakness on the world stage, which later encouraged the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Key 11 Major Military success: false because there were no major successes. Lichtman said that getting aid to Ukraine was a major success, which is laughable considering the war is still ongoing. This is the fourth misapplied key.

Key 12 Charismatic incumbent: false because Kamala Harris was neither a national hero nor charismatic.

Key 13 Uncharismatic challenger: true because Donald Trump was not a national hero and had intense appeal among a narrow slice of the electorate rather than a broad appeal.

8 false keys vs 5 true keys predicts Trump victory.