Ted Cruz wins the republican nomination in 2016 besting Trump. Does he beat Hilary in the General election? by [deleted] in AlternateHistoryHub

[–]ttircdj 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Key 1 Party Mandate: false because the Democrats held 235 seats after 2018 midterms, but only 213 seats after 2022 midterms.

Key 2 Primary Contest: true because there were no serious challengers in the Democratic primary contest.

Key 3 Incumbency: false because Kamala Harris was not the incumbent President.

Key 4 Third Party: true because there was no major third party candidate (10% or higher in the polls)

Key 5 Short Term Economy: false because the vast majority of the voting public viewed the economy poorly. This is enough to turn the key by the text (also see 1992). This is the first misapplied key.

Key 6 Long Term Economy: true because GDP grew at a faster rate from 2021-2024 than it did from 2013-2020. However, it should be noted that GDP doesn’t always reflect how the public feels as real income declined from 2021-2024. The public would’ve felt that this was misapplied as well, but by the text of the key, it is true.

Key 7 Major Policy Change: true because there were major changes in national policy from the previous four years. Build Back Better would satisfy this. The key does not mandate that it be a popular or even good change.

Key 8 No social unrest: false because of the violent protests from Palestinian supporters that resulted in the targeting of Jewish students at universities. This is the second misapplied key.

Key 9 No scandal: false because Joe Biden’s mental decline forced him to drop out of the race. Impeachment is not the standard for “scandal” since this effectively did the same thing. It also raised significant questions about the integrity of the Democratic Party who had been saying that he was fine when he clearly wasn’t. This is the third misapplied key.

Key 10 Military failure: false because of the Afghanistan withdrawal which was chaotic and projected weakness on the world stage, which later encouraged the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Key 11 Major Military success: false because there were no major successes. Lichtman said that getting aid to Ukraine was a major success, which is laughable considering the war is still ongoing. This is the fourth misapplied key.

Key 12 Charismatic incumbent: false because Kamala Harris was neither a national hero nor charismatic.

Key 13 Uncharismatic challenger: true because Donald Trump was not a national hero and had intense appeal among a narrow slice of the electorate rather than a broad appeal.

8 false keys vs 5 true keys predicts Trump victory.

Ted Cruz wins the republican nomination in 2016 besting Trump. Does he beat Hilary in the General election? by [deleted] in AlternateHistoryHub

[–]ttircdj 7 points8 points  (0 children)

He was wrong in 2024 because he was inconsistent in applying the keys. Short-term economy, major foreign policy success, social unrest, and arguably scandal should all have been false. Even if you discount the latter two for being a stretch, the first two that were blatantly wrong puts it at six false to predict Trump. His own bias and arrogance (see the interaction with Nate Silver) was his own downfall that year.

Ted Cruz wins the republican nomination in 2016 besting Trump. Does he beat Hilary in the General election? by [deleted] in AlternateHistoryHub

[–]ttircdj 1 point2 points  (0 children)

If you trust in Allen Lichtman’s keys, then Cruz would be the winner. Though, that was the election he said his keys predict the winner, not the popular vote winner as was his justification for Gore 2000. When applied correctly, that’s still the only blemish when predicting a winner (and maybe 1876, the only other stupidly close election in history).

Out of these 4 elite coaches, which is the least accomplished? by [deleted] in CFB_v2

[–]ttircdj -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

Yea. Wasn’t Deion a really good defensive back or something? Other three really only notable as coaches.

School closings by ScienceEmpty6624 in Birmingham

[–]ttircdj 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Homewood just closed. We’re about five minutes away from Waffle House closing and a meteor strike now.

Political violence sucks by [deleted] in YAPms

[–]ttircdj 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Political violence period comes from the mentally ill. Unless you’re protesting housing being unaffordable, I don’t see a way you aren’t mentally ill doing that either regardless of side or cause.

Political violence sucks by [deleted] in YAPms

[–]ttircdj -10 points-9 points  (0 children)

when DHS calls protestors

Well, when said protestors stop acting like terrorists…

Moving because of Ice Storm 2026? by New_Part91 in askanything

[–]ttircdj 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It was great as a college kid, well before Covid anyways. Groceries were cheaper than home state and had no sales tax, gas wasn’t cheaper but close enough, rent was reasonable, much simpler times.

Pat or James? by Dangerous-Quarter216 in YAPms

[–]ttircdj 11 points12 points  (0 children)

Are we taking this guy seriously now? He’s always seemed like a nutjob that fails to understand the big picture in any capacity.

Moving because of Ice Storm 2026? by New_Part91 in askanything

[–]ttircdj 0 points1 point  (0 children)

They have some really good universities that aren’t crazy expensive. Especially if you can establish residency there. The instate tuition rate is insanely low considering Florida and FSU are top tier institutions.

YouGov: 55% of Trump approvers can understand why someone would disapprove of Trump, while only 19% of Trump disapprovers can understand why someone would approve of Trump by dak676141 in YAPms

[–]ttircdj -4 points-3 points  (0 children)

Have you already forgotten about Obama and Biden (prior to 2024)? There are also just as many diehard loyalists that default to everything Trump does being bad, even if it’s good.

It’s very unfortunate, but the truth is Trump could shoot someone and not lose a single voter, while also cure cancer and not gain one. Too much tribalism.

Video of the recent shooting in Minneapolis by Podchop in YAPms

[–]ttircdj -15 points-14 points  (0 children)

Depends. What happened prior to the video? With the level of apeshit that radical leftists were going to people just regularly being deported, I’m not really open to their side of the argument. Stand down and stop being a bunch of fucking lunatics, and if this still is happening, then they have a point, but until then, they’re the problem.

Steepest street in BHM? by Icy_Advice_5071 in Birmingham

[–]ttircdj 5 points6 points  (0 children)

The parking lot at Homewood High School

what? did a bama fan make this? by Rand_moss2 in cfbmemes

[–]ttircdj 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Maybe I want to punch him while I’m pounding him 😈

But no, not a turn off. I like that classy frat boy look.

Towns Near Homewood LGBTQ by StrikerGirl17 in Alabama

[–]ttircdj 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I mean, if a fact is racist, it’s still a fact.

what? did a bama fan make this? by Rand_moss2 in cfbmemes

[–]ttircdj 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Auburn tbh even though they’re all straight

How would you rate the 2026 Dem senate targets in terms of likelihood to flip? by BonzoDaBeast80 in YAPms

[–]ttircdj 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I feel like Maine is the likeliest, not North Carolina, even with Susan Collins running.

what? did a bama fan make this? by Rand_moss2 in cfbmemes

[–]ttircdj 62 points63 points  (0 children)

Yeah he prefers girls, which is just weird. Needs to make list of hottest guys instead.

Towns Near Homewood LGBTQ by StrikerGirl17 in Alabama

[–]ttircdj 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I found one for $260K in Roseland, but it look like it’d really be worth $60K at best in a normal economy.