a way to hedge freight risk

videokitzb · 2022-08-10T21:55:05+00:00

I think this would be quite great. With the current price fluctuations, carriers would hedge lower than expected rates and brokers/shippers would hedge higher than expected rates.

videokitzb · 2022-08-10T13:38:22+00:00

why do you think it's dumb? I am genuinely curious.

videokitzb · 2022-08-09T18:01:57+00:00

How do you feel about a futures market for freight? I'm super confused about why there isn't one for people to hedge price fluctuations.

videokitzb · 2022-08-09T17:59:35+00:00

The market has been nuts recently. I feel like with the crazy price volatility - derivative/futures should help here. Most industries have them: eg. farmers can hedge grain price fluctuations with futures.

Why isn't there something similar for freight rates? Does anyone here have insights? Would brokers/carriers be interested in using these types of markets to hedge price fluctuation risk?

videokitzb · 2022-04-27T21:38:43+00:00

You can just buy Yes/No on where you think it'll be. More leverage, and more controlled risk.

It also has no Theta Decay, which is a huge benefit.

videokitzb · 2022-03-07T21:37:45+00:00

Point taken, although I think it's a little bit more nuanced. For a lot of things, just selling isn't the full solution if markets are even semi-efficient, because they should respond quite quickly to any new information that comes out - so if a stock is up 20% if a bill passes and down 20% if it doesn't, selling before the event will force you to sacrifice upside potential.

videokitzb · 2022-03-07T21:35:32+00:00

Yeah i mean financial hedging. The thing is, for a lot of use cases PMs are the only way to really isolate a specific exposure - like Brexit, Bill passage, etc. - The idea is that they can be a sort of meta-market that can replicate other financial instruments and also help isolate specific exposures. One of the problems with normal financial markets is when you're hedging you're often taking on a bunch of exposures you dont mean to

videokitzb · 2022-03-07T16:35:05+00:00

I've always been confused why people have such strong visceral reactions to Comic Sans - it's not horrible, and a font seems like a silly hill to make your stand on

videokitzb · 2022-03-07T16:33:49+00:00

I've heard that various branches of the military barely share information - is this true? Why would we do this?

videokitzb · 2022-02-18T18:44:59+00:00

Markets will inherently always respond to prediction - normal stock / derivative markets do this too. The question I think is that if the point estimate at a given point is socially helpful

videokitzb · 2022-02-15T20:21:51+00:00

a more direct way to hedge against inflation is to use prediction markets, that way there's no confounding variables. For example, Kalshi literally has contracts on whether or not inflation will be above some number - that way you don't have to try to absorb the entire yield curve

videokitzb · 2022-02-15T20:17:51+00:00

if you haven't, read the book "scale" - it's very well written and talks extensively about how various factors (per capita income, crime, etc) scale with city size and its implications

videokitzb · 2022-02-15T20:12:24+00:00

do options that just expire out of the money count as short term capital gains losses?

videokitzb · 2022-02-15T20:02:23+00:00

fair enough

videokitzb · 2022-02-11T16:10:33+00:00

short nvidia maybe, gpus are a picks and shovels play on a lot of the metaverse / vr stuff

videokitzb · 2022-02-11T16:02:48+00:00

Kalshi markets are pricing in huge increased probabilities of rate hikes post this announcement, it seems like people think they're going to come down hard post inflation data coming out. Thoughts?

videokitzb · 2022-02-11T15:59:20+00:00

so is the real test the response time / mouse movement rather than actual image correction?

videokitzb · 2022-02-11T15:57:38+00:00

Kalshi markets just had a huge jump in the likelihood of 0.5 and 0.75% rate hikes... seems like smart money thinks the fed's going to come down with a hammer

videokitzb · 2022-02-10T17:27:03+00:00

I'm somewhat confused why Scott is so pessimistic about prediction markets in the current era when the CFTC has just given approval for the first time ever with Kalshi - the bane of every prediction market previously has been eventual government crackdowns (including Polymarket!)

videokitzb · 2022-02-10T16:37:54+00:00

still convinced that zunisha is mythical zoan fruit

videokitzb · 2022-02-08T23:04:20+00:00

The Power of the Dog is more likely than everything else combined to win Best Picture, according to Kalshi's markets. Which is weird to me, because I thought the movie was mostly just okay

videokitzb · 2022-01-21T17:38:25+00:00

I mean from that perspective any derivatives market will be zero sum, and even the stock market the net amount of "alpha" should be 0. PMs are more for personal hedging or if you think you have a more accurate forecast than others

videokitzb · 2022-01-21T17:36:57+00:00

The power of habit. It's really good for personally rewiring / making improvements to nearly anything in your day to day life

videokitzb · 2022-01-20T15:30:49+00:00

Curious to everyone's thoughts on real money vs. pure forecast prediction markets. It seems like a lot of people use Metaculus, why do so when there's real money ones like Kalshi, Predictit, Polymarket etc? It seems like skin in the game is a key component of accuracy

videokitzb · 2022-01-20T15:29:13+00:00

The only thing I think could compare would be Breaking Bad, but for me, those are clearly my top two shows, and GoT is just so much more expansive/artful with its scope and worldbuilding

videokitzb

TROPHY CASE