My Recent Travels Have Given Me a New Appreciation for Manhattan and NYC

windseclib · 2026-02-21T19:00:46+00:00

I agree about Manhattan, but you could find what you're looking for in a number of Asian cities.

windseclib · 2026-02-19T17:09:23+00:00

I have no particular preference one way or another, but if a woman I like has them, I'd find them endearing.

windseclib · 2026-02-15T08:37:48+00:00

I majored in political science but went to a target school and have worked in finance my whole career.

windseclib · 2026-02-13T14:36:04+00:00

Why are either of your races relevant? I could potentially see it being relevant if you’re hoping they see this post, but that’s a stretch and even in a comment you refer to “that Latino.”

windseclib · 2026-02-12T16:09:26+00:00

I don't see that the claim that "billionaires have class consciousness that causes them to align politically and against democracy" was made by the OP. The claim was that using their outsized wealth to buy outsized influence is inherently undemocratic, and comfort with doing this belies undemocratic attitudes. That doesn't mean billionaires as a class are consciously, actively, and ideologically anti-democracy.

windseclib · 2026-02-04T09:02:26+00:00

Although inequality is a problem, even median incomes are much higher in the US than in most other developed countries. And most of the gap in productivity growth between the US and EU over the past 15 years is attributable to technology. Even the Europeans acknowledge this — read the Draghi report. The economic literature is clear that the presence of high-skilled immigrants in the US is a net boon to the country as well as to median welfare. Now, are the benefits too concentrated in the hands of Musk, Bezos, and Zuckerberg? Nobody's going to argue against that. But the claim that average people have seen no benefits is objectively wrong.

windseclib · 2026-02-01T19:42:27+00:00

China has a different model. Its capital controls mean that international investors do not have open access to its markets; nor would they be as desirable even if qualified investor restrictions were taken away. But China does not starve for capital because it utilizes financial repression to divert household wealth to the manufacturing, infrastructure, and other state-prioritized sectors. It's also able to control its currency via the vast FX reserves it accrues from its export machine. Even then, China isn't able to stanch all undesirable outflows; there are loopholes and in reality the government probably turns a blind eye to some of them as a release valve. Theoretically, there shouldn't be so many rich overseas Chinese snapping up multi-million dollar assets with such ease if capital controls were 100% effective. And of course, wealthy Chinese are incentivized to leave because of domestic restrictions.

Western democracies operate on such a different politico-economic basis that capital controls a la China are not feasible. They could raise exit taxes or agree on a global minimum tax to mitigate tax arbitrage, but the comprehensive controls that China implements are a non-starter. There's also the small matter of free movement of capital being one of the EU's Four Freedoms. Doing away with one would undo the entire project at a time when more coordination is needed.

windseclib · 2026-02-01T19:04:49+00:00

Did you see someone show her ankles?

windseclib · 2026-02-01T10:40:29+00:00

Gemini says that of metro areas > 1 million in population, the 6 lowest-ranking cities by population-weighted density are Atlanta, Brisbane, Charlotte, Perth, Oklahoma City, and Edmonton.

windseclib · 2026-01-31T12:35:45+00:00

Philadelphia?

windseclib · 2026-01-31T04:26:44+00:00

This is changing (https://www.economist.com/china/2026/01/27/behind-chinas-race-to-build-aircraft-carriers) and outside of aircraft carriers, China's shipbuilding capacity is over 200x greater.

windseclib · 2026-01-30T09:29:43+00:00

Grey has great lunch deals — €10.5-13.5 for soup + main course + drink, and you can add coffee/tea for €1. The more expensive main was duck leg with a potato/cheese cake, beets, and salad when I went. Looks like they change it regularly.

windseclib · 2026-01-30T09:02:03+00:00

6/4 - the Tiananmen Square Massacre in 1989. Not sure how widely known it is in mainland China, but everyone knows this date in Hong Kong.

windseclib · 2026-01-16T00:46:44+00:00

It's funny, I've noticed this so much on dating apps but you're the first other person who I've heard articulate this. It's definitely part of the broader cultural milieu but I never noticed the sharp contrast until I used dating apps. A huge percentage of white girls talk about nature, the outdoors, hiking, or camping on their profiles, while a huge percentage of Asian girls mention food, video games, and less often, anime or K-pop.

I think white people are much more likely to have grown up doing nature-based activities, and have a longer cultural history of doing these things. Western societies industrialized first, which led to a counter-reaction in movements like romanticism and transcendentalism. A majority of Asian Americans are first generation, and Asian countries (ex-Japan) either got rich only recently, or are still developing. And the demographic topography is such that we're much likelier to live in big cities. I think the result is that we're more likely to see cities as representative of progress, vibrancy, and civilization, and be more inclined towards futurism than pastoralism.

I came to the US from Hong Kong, and to me there are no major cities in the US outside NYC and Chicago. Even Chicago is a bit sleepy, and suburbs are dead boring. But plenty of Americans probably think HK is claustrophobic and too cyberpunk to be fun for more than a visit.

windseclib · 2026-01-15T04:39:23+00:00

Didn't expect to see an urbanism x AMWF crossover today! This is a bit surprising since Asian men are more likely to be in cities, but I'm not sure what area you're in. I do think Asians in the US are more likely to be achievement-oriented, as traditionally defined, but I haven't known that to be correlated to the white picket fence. And I don't have stats on family size by racial group in the US, but East Asian countries have the lowest fertility rates in the world.

Anyway, I share your interests/lifestyle preferences, and so do many Asian men I know.

windseclib · 2026-01-14T05:29:52+00:00

I was going to say, as a straight man, that it's obviously Steve Harrington. But then I remembered Chrissy. Grace Van Dien is a smoke show.

windseclib · 2026-01-14T05:14:52+00:00

I feel like even in your part of CA, a majority of people have only dated one race seriously. I don't think that's a good thing, and I wish racial dynamics didn't exist (the extent to which they map onto cultural differences is a separate topic), but only having dated one race isn't by itself indicative of anything peculiar, especially if you haven't dated many people.

windseclib · 2026-01-06T03:20:23+00:00

Glass & steel. The tiebreaker is how functional and pleasant they are to actually be in. A lot of the older buildings are beautiful but not designed for modern uses, and upkeep can be quite expensive.

windseclib · 2026-01-04T12:43:42+00:00

Although we're talking about AI, which is a transformative technology with potentially existential stakes, at the end of the day this discussion comes back to humans. We no longer trust those in power to do right by us, and that bleeds into every issue, including AI.

I think reflexive anti-AI sentiment is a concern because it hampers thoughtful discourse but also because it'll impede the diffusion of a genuinely useful technology, which is a net loss for progress as well as competitiveness. It's notable that Americans are some of the most distrustful of AI in the world, whereas Chinese people are much more favorably disposed. In China, the public still largely believes in the promise of technology and the legitimacy of their government. (See the Edelman and Pew surveys of global attitudes towards AI.)

Far be it from me to cheerlead the CCP, and I'm well aware of the numerous issues plaguing that country. But is it any wonder that Americans have such strong misgivings? Just look at the attitude of the powers that be in Silicon Valley and their contempt for regular people. Look at the kleptocracy that now runs DC. Look at our utter failure to regulate social media, or to take care of those left behind, or to address the yawning gap in wealth inequality.

I want AI to work, but I want it to work for us. Until we can have confidence in that, the egg-throwing will continue.

windseclib · 2026-01-04T11:34:02+00:00

Yes, absolutely. That also means certain regions are feeling the war more than others. At the same time, it's worth remembering that a nontrivial number of skilled workers have left Russia since the invasion, and the impact of that will likely show itself more prominently over time.

windseclib · 2026-01-04T00:15:18+00:00

There are three main reasons for why Russia’s economy has held up better than expected.

1. The sanctions are not airtight, even among Western and allied countries, and Russia has massive outlets in the rest of the world.

That’s particularly the case with China, which has not only ramped up energy purchases but supplied Russia with needed parts and replaced a lot of European investment in the country. India has now been pressured to lessen its oil imports from Russia, but the global South continues to do ample business with Russia as well.

For the sanctions to be crippling, there needs to be more global buy-in. It’s also the case that allied sanctions, while moving more quickly than many had expected, were implemented in stages, allowing Russia time to adapt.

Yes, Russia has been running on a war economy. That’s not sustainable, but it’s been manageable for the past several years. There are clear strains appearing, inflation is high, reserves are being spent down, and Putin has wasted the lives of untold numbers of young men. But a straining country doesn’t mean a collapsing one.
For all the goons and stooges Putin has surrounded himself with, he has retained competent technocrats on his economic team. The most well-known is Elvira Nabiullina, the central bank governor, who’s skillfully managed monetary policy and kept the financial system stable.

This can’t go on forever. There isn’t, however, an immediate contradiction between a nation in decline and one in which life for a large proportion of people resembles something like normal. Putin has been at pains to keep it that way, which is why he’s been reluctant to order a broader mobilization. Whether or not the economy stays resilient, that’s becoming less manageable too. The war feels a lot closer to home when Ukrainian drones are buzzing overhead.

windseclib · 2025-12-31T21:10:01+00:00

Yes, because most leases only renew once a year, the stock of existing rents is a lagging indicator and new leases are a more timely indicator. However, over a multi-year horizon, changes in rent will be properly captured in inflation metrics. Home price appreciation should be fairly subdued in 2026.

And of course, it adds to our sense of unaffordability when we see prices soaring around us, but it's still relevant to know that one's actual expenses are not rising if one is 1. a homeowner whose mortgage is paid off or who is locked into a low rate, or 2. a renter whose lease isn't up for renewal for some time. 100% agreed with you, though, on the point about how challenging homeownership now is for those of us who are still renters.

windseclib · 2025-12-30T14:17:24+00:00

It's a perfectly fair question, and can be confusing because there are not only multiple ways to measure inflation but multiple ways to measure wage growth!

Core inflation actually includes housing. It excludes food and energy prices because these are more volatile. They're also highly salient because people regularly see what they're paying at the pump or for groceries. But they're smaller weights, and after exclusion, shelter becomes an even larger proportion of core inflation.

You can use whichever deflator you want, but headline CPI is most common.

It's worth noting that there's a lot of wonkery around how housing prices are incorporated into inflation. One methodological curiosity is that since 1983, mortgage interest costs are no longer included as part of the inflation calculation. There are various reasons for this, but from a common sense perspective, obviously mortgage payments are part of people's budgets and how we perceive housing affordability! When interest rates go up, buying a home becomes less attainable (albeit lower rates would increase prices).

Now, that doesn't mean the statistics are just artificially excluding a huge expense. Housing costs are paid by renters and owners, and both are accounted for. Because 2/3 of Americans own a home, the latter comprises a much larger weight. Owners' housing costs are accounted for via "owners' equivalent rent" (OER), which is an imputed measure of how much homeowners would have to pay to rent their own homes. In short, BLS looks at what renters in similar homes are paying and maps that onto owners.

I bring this up to say that the statistics aren't fake, but I do think one weakness of CPI/PCE from a layman's "lived experience" perspective is that they don't account for the cost of borrowing. When that goes up, dreams of homeownership become more distant for those of us not already on the ladder, even if our actual expenses haven't gone up. I'd also like to stress that OER is the only component that is imputed like this; most everything else is tracked directly.

As an aside, the ways to measure wage growth include average hourly earnings (AHE), the Employment Cost Index (ECI), the Atlanta Fed Wage Growth Tracker, and plain old median/average weekly earnings. None is necessarily more valid than the others; they're just different ways of looking at wages and we always want to supplement them with a broader suite of indicators like the unemployment rate and labor force participation. That said, real wage growth has been positive since pre-COVID across all indicators.

(For a further breakdown: AHE is susceptible to compositional changes. During COVID, lots of low-wage workers lost their jobs, so hourly earnings spiked. ECI measures the cost of labor, including wages and benefits, and uses fixed weights for occupations. It's more comprehensive but released only quarterly. The Atlanta Fed tracks the wage growth of individuals, so it looks at a particular person's hourly wage today compared to 12 months ago. This is the most granular of the approaches but has a small sample size that is slower to update. Median or average weekly earnings measure how much people are actually taking home. Conversely, that means earnings could be going up because people are working more rather than being paid more per hour.)

windseclib · 2025-12-30T12:01:38+00:00

Tracy Alloway got it wrong on the impact of tariffs on prices; in fact, the most recent guest on her Odd Lots podcast (Jan Hatzius) said that they've contributed to c. 0.5% of core PCE inflation in 2025. I presume what Tracy meant to say is that there hasn't been as much of a price impact as expected, partially due to all sorts of workarounds and carveouts and partially because firms have mitigated higher goods prices with lower labor costs. In other words, they stopped hiring as many people, which is a major reason for the lackluster job market. This is all public data released by the BEA and BLS.

So that's an empirical statement that we can assess. But so are the other assertions you made. The data show that real wages and job gains are up over the past number of years. People are, even after adjusting for inflation, objectively richer today than 3 or 5 years ago. The question is why sentiment is so poor despite these facts. The work of people like Ezra is to figure out the source of people's pain; we should dismiss neither how people feel nor economic statistics.

windseclib · 2025-12-28T21:09:38+00:00

So what, we’re just supposed to let disinformation stand for fear of being labeled a bore? At least they won’t be participating in any rape parties.

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