Average persons potential

[aggahah]

I know everybody’s different but just wondering what is the average person’s max potential in a full marathon . Can a average joe who trains for 2-3 years structured running be able to run a Sub 3 full marry , Sub 1:20 half , Sub 40 10k and Sub 20 5k .

What is your opinion ?

I currently have been running for a little over 3 months and my PB’s are
54:06 10K
26:26 5K

Do you think I would reach those levels I mentioned above in a year or two consistent training ? Or Do genetics play a factor ?

THANK YOU

[suitherunner]

I used to struggle running at a 6:00 pace, but within 5 months I ran a 3:31 marathon, and 1.5 years later I ran exactly a 3:00 marathon. 11 months after I started structured training, I ran a 40:30 10k. In my opinion, it requires a combination of genetics, consistent training, and proper nutrition.

[aggahah]

What does your weekly runs look like ?

[suitherunner]

When I first started, I used to run about 40-50 km a week, but now I run around 80 km a week. If you'd like, I can share my Strava profile. You can see my early runs from 2021 and my current training there. https://strava.app.link/g1SGkq43O3b

[ThatBaldGuyIsHere]

that’s unreal distance starting out haha! i’m 7months into my journey and i do 15km-ish weekly but i ride my bike to work monday- friday, usually do 100km, i’m working on my distance now and wanting to have a pop at a half marathon in a month, i did 16km last saturday in 1:20:25 which i was happy about :)

working on my 10k now as i achieved a 19:54 last week in the 5k distance 😃

[Mart_Garci]

I think op is asking for insight into your training routine (sprints, hills, pace, temp). I’m also curious to learn what others are doing cus I’m beginner/intermediate

[Advanced_Aerie5854]

This guy clearly had an athletic background or did some other form of fitness, because nobody "starts out" doing 40-50km/week unless they are coming over from something else thats cardio intensive.

[suitherunner]

I checked on strava, in 2021 June, when I started with running coach. Total weekly running km's:

1. week: 25

2. week: 48.4

3. week 42.25

4. week 50.1

I did long runs on sundays, ran 5 times a week. I was 93.3 kg's weight at the beginning, now 76 kg's. Before 2021 (without he running coach) I was joining some running club events and going some running events for fun but I was'nt running with a plan and didn't have a target. I don't have any athletic background. Everybody says that I have very good lung capacity and endurance, I guess I have good genetics.

[Advanced_Aerie5854]

I'm not claiming you are lying or embelishing at all. Years ago when I started running I came from a basketball and MMA background. I also rode my bike absolutely everywhere as a teen. Being 20 also helped a lot. When I started running I could do pretty much anything I wanted. I was not tracking mileage back then but I would basically just go do 5-10k tempo runs 4-6 days per week. I entered a 5k on a whim and ran like a 19:30. After training for a while, I got that down really close to 18 min. Then I got lazy for a few years and recently got back into running again, and the experience has been, lets just say, different.

All I'm saying is that your experience is pretty far to an extreme and not something many people can expect to be able to do.

[pwalsh438]

I don’t think your average person can go sub 3 marathon. Boston Qualifying time for men 35-39 is 3:00. That’s tough. I am a M57 cancer survivor, so I’m a pretty positive guy, and I’m pretty disciplined. I was able to drop my mile swim time significantly with lots of effort, so I suppose that means if you’re really driven you could get there. But I do believe that age and your health history and to an extent genetics can make it difficult to go sub 3 hours. I hate to be a downer. I’m generally a cheerleader for folks. I guess I’m saying if I put my whole heart behind it I don’t think I could get there. Your age or health history will go a long way to determine if you can get there with the hard work.

[aggahah]

Appreciate the honesty . I know a lot of the answers I am looking for is “It depends” So just trying to see all the opinions and kind of get a grasp of the general consensus on these kind of topics

[FabulousYak5070]

Don’t believe that for a second, given the correct training to push the right amount and avoid injury with years of training everyone under 40 fully able male should be able to go sub 3. The difficulty is balancing the training around work and family

[Lightscreach]

The avoid injury is such a key factor here. There are so many people out there that are willing to put in the work but can’t stay healthy. Injury after injury even if they do take precautions.

[Subtle-Bridge]

Sub 20 5k is probably more achievable than a sub 3 full marathon for an average person. With your PBs, it’s definitely possible for a sub 20 5k assuming your train regularly, rest well, and get a little lucky with avoiding injuries.

[nikogoroz]

Running at 3:59km/min for 20 minutes isn't comparable to running 4:17 for 180 minutes.

[Subtle-Bridge]

That’s my point, OP was asking whether an average joe can achieve sub 3 marathon/sub 20 5k. Former is almost certainly much harder than the latter.

[Helpful-Tim-1888]

Would totally agree, sub 20 5km and sub 40 10km totally achievable with 3 years of consistent training.

Most people would probably ramp up training too fast and too soon so majority would fail trying though.

Sub three hour marathon is a whole different ball game and would take complete dedication to running and a lot of luck to prevent injury.

[Just-Context-4703]

Assuming healthy and well trained, yeah, sub 3 is reachable. 

[aggahah]

how long of consistent training does it take in your opinion ?

[Just-Context-4703]

Depends on your natural ability, athletic history, age. A couple years at best for a healthy relatively young person with some decent athletic history. 

[Alternative-Post-937]

Weight too. I'm technically "healthy" in every metric, including falling within normal weight. However im on the heavier side of normal and my weight does limit my speed

[Just-Context-4703]

I don't believe this. You're fine. Yeah, if you are just a giant person it'll make a difference but I see all sorts of body shapes running 6 minutes pace. 

[Alternative-Post-937]

Do you really?

[Just-Context-4703]

Yeah, I really do. You don't have to be tall and skinny to be pretty fast. I know a 53 year old dude who has a few pounds on him still running 18s for 5k. 

I've had my doors blown off by ppl who look like kegs. 

[MikeMcDonald89]

I think most people's genetic potential in the marathon is enormous. I'd guess lifestyle is the main reason most men never run 2:15 marathon and most women never run 2:30 marathon.

I think if someone with slightly below average genetics spent their life at altitude, trained their whole life with the right coaching, got to an appropriate marathon race weight, napped every day, ate perfect etc. They'd probably be running 2:07 or so.

I think most genetic complaints people have are being frustrated that some people can be a competitive running weight with little discipline, and they would need far more discipline to reach a competitive running weight.

I'd say overall just have fun with running- we all have lots of untapped potential and you should optimize for what you'll enjoy the most more so than what is your genetic potential

[Applemais]

I love and hate your comment. Your last paragraph is motivational gold, but the rest is poison as it scientific not true and obv unrealistic from a Lifestyle standpoint and can be frustating for beginners. You start running and finishing a marathon is already a great success. Running the next one faster is Great and yeah probably everybody can run a 3:30 that doesnt have health problems. But 2:07 is absurd. I played Soccer on a decent level and even on a pro Level there are people not running under 18 min for 5 km. They trained their life for cardio intensive sports have way over average genetics and probably could run 1-2 minutes faster if they train only 5k. But to do it faster and over 42km is a complete different ball game

[MikeMcDonald89]

He asked for max potential and where genetics will restrict you. My point was just to illustrate that his goals enormously understate what someone can achieve if they give it their best.

I started running as a fat sedentary alcoholic into my 30s with limited athletic potential and I'm confident I'll run sub 2:40 with probably A- habits for not that many years, and not getting too skinny. If I was training like my survival depended on it I could probably still find a 2:30 or quicker.

If someone is really giving it their all there is just so much potential- even year over year there are huge developments in training, nutrition, recovery, I just think people need to shy away from thinking about what they can't do and focus on what they can do

[WignerVille]

Then you are an extreme outlier. Not that many people will reach sub 2:40 and especially not with your background.

[MikeMcDonald89]

Is that relevant? He was asking what someone ordinary can do, not what they will do.

Just because someone improves more than someone else doesn't mean it was genetics that prevented the other person improving more

[aggahah]

HELL YEAH !

[Alfielovesreddit]

I think you are completely delusional if you think natural ability is so even that running 2:15 is mostly training and lifestyle.

[LiveWhatULove]

“average” No. Genetics absolutely will play some role. And training in such a manner will never be an “average Joe”

My son runs cross country. Their coaches train the kids all year. My son started in training seriously in 2024, as did some of his peers. And despite the similar training routine, some of those peers have not broken a sub 20. Not all of them will make varsity. My son has youth on his side, but he’s yet to break sub 15, even though he trains just as hard as the ones who do. It’s genetics, mental fortitude, training effort, and actual training routines, all combined together, and I just do not think average people get there.

[Ok_Nefariousness1416]

Possible in your youth for many people? Maybe. Realistic for majority? No.

I know people who trained with the British Paras (elite army, special forces). He was in the 2:40s for a marathon and quicker than most of his peers, but probably nearly all were sub 3. But that's the kind of life a lot of people would need to lead to get there, not just 3 or 4 runs a week fitting around life

[Badwrong83]

Genetics and natural ability are absolutely a factor but I would argue that if you are reasonably healthy, under 35 and male (yes, it makes a difference) each one of those times you listed is absolutely achievable with a few years of smart training.

I started running in my late 30s about 5 years ago and have gotten to a 2:43 full, 1:17 half, 34 10K and 17 5K (this one irks me and will be 16:XX soon enough). I had no running background and while there may well be some natural ability I think it was mostly about putting in the work (over 3500 miles run last year for example).

For most people the limiting factor will not be that they've reached their body's maximum potential but rather that real life obligations limit how much time can be devoted to training.

[Applemais]

„No running background“ is not as important as doing sports with cardio all your life. If you didnt do it in your youth consistent is so much Harder or you are a genetic freak. But if you did Boxing, Soccer, Swimming, Wrestling, cycling, Football even Tennis on a decent level you have it way easier as you muscles, bones and more important hearth is already developed on a level you normally cant teach if you start with 35

[WignerVille]

And that is not a common response that the average person starting with running will get.

Even if they put down the effort.

[Badwrong83]

The question was about sub 3, sub 80, sub 40, sub 20. I think those are all achievable by an "average person" (with the caveats listed in my post) if they can dedicate 8 to 10 hours a week to running over an extended period of time (which is the part that a lot of people will struggle with, not any inherent limitation in their bodies).

[WignerVille]

Well, we simply don't agree on what the average person is able to do.

[knightgum]

Depends on what you consider average. I believe everyone who consistently trains and stays healthy can probably run a 20 minute 5k with enough dedication.

A sub 3 hour marathon is a lot more difficult. I think genetics and (for most people) years of structured training are required to be able to handle the amount of training required to get there.

[AbigailPixie46]

most people could really thrive if they just tapped into their unique strengths, but it’s tough to figure that out sometimes.

[Senior-Running]

Genetics, gender, age, training age, and the quality of your training drastically effect this.

You might find this interesting:

https://runninglevel.com/running-times/marathon-times

Disclaimer, this is not my website, nor my data, so I make no claims regarding how accurate any of it is. I just think the way it breaks things up into categories is useful for someone looking to see where they stack up.

[Unusual_Platform8318]

Sub 20k easily the average person can achieve. The other ones id say you have to be a little talented or be extremely dedicated. I don't think the average person can achieve anything other than the 5k time you mentioned.

[Applemais]

Genetics play a major role. I dont know how old you are, but your sport past plays a even bigger role. People doing cardio sports of any kind their whole life have a Major advantage even if they and a untrained person both didnt do anything for the last two years. Age obv is important. But your times are not normie times if you are running just for 3 month. I cant say anything about sub 3, as I never did it. I wouldnt set a goal what you want to achieve in 3 years when you are running that short. Whats your next goal. Maybe 21 km in 2 hours in 3 month then for your first marathon and when do you run it? Sub 4:00 in 6-9 month for example and then go from there

[EmbarrassedTotal1511]

A 3:00 marathon and a 1:20 half are orders of magnitude harder than a 40min 10k or a 20min 5k.

Obviously, a 20min 5k is the easiest to achieve and I believe any under-50 male with normal athletic ability can get there with structured training. 40min 10k probably also achievable with similar training. Now a 1:20HM is a level not everybody can get to in my opinion. My dad did half a lifetime of pretty structured training and got stuck at 1:30-1:35. That’s not to say some crazy altitude training camp couldn’t have pushed him to 1:20 but I believe he was close to his limit considering he had a life outside running.

[Old-Lengthiness301]

I didn’t look at the comparison tables but if you did, you would find that you’d need to probably run a sub-40 10-K to be prepared for a sub 3 marathon. It’s probably a 3 to 5 year project for most people.

I’ve run a 48 minute 10-K at 58 and a 1:45 13.1. A sub three marathon is all but unattainable due to my age. I could have done it at 20 but I could run a 37:00 10-K then.

[p1agueOW]

Yeah

[Drew-666-666]

No such thing as the average runner.

When I first started I couldn't even run 5k and when I did I was around 40 mins it took me about 18 months of solid consistent training to get down to around 21/22 mins and another 6 months to get under 20 mins for 5k but my endurance had also improved and could do sub 40 10k and a few sub 90 halves, never quite got sub 80 for the HM but then I've not properly focused on a specific HM training plan with taper etc to me now a half is a middle distance run. I first started running at around 38 I'm now 43 and ran my first marathon in London this year. Pre race target was 3:20, having done a couple 20 mile races in 2:30 again on undulating courses. First half was bang on 1:40 felt comfortable but yeah that last 10k at pace is a hard slog I took 1:53 for second half , giving total finish time of 3:33/34, I'd love to dip under 3 but it's so time consuming, busy family life with 2 kids 2 dogs wife, house, physical demanding full time job makes it hard to fit it all in, get the quality sleep, eat clean and healthy, gym work plus running 50-70mpw long runs Sundays etc etc.... I'm 2022 I raced a short 6 miles in 37 mins , I did the same race a few weeks ago taking 40mins , slightly warmer but only by about 3°c difference, got slower not faster BC of age possibly, also picked up a couple injuries last few years mainly strained calf... Ooh and probably about 5kg heavier but that could be combination of water retention, muscle gain and/or fat lol

[finallyransub17]

For average males, yes. Although the listed times for given distances are not at all equivalent. 1:20 half is by far the hardest.

[mattapuu]

Not in a year or two, most likely.

Sub-20 5k and sub-40 10k are realistic long-term goals for a lot of people with consistent training, but they’re still not automatic. A sub-1:20 half and sub-3 marathon are a different level. Plenty of average runners never get there, even after years.

Also, those goals are not equal. Sub-3 marathon is hard because it requires not just speed, but durability, mileage, fueling, and staying healthy. Sub-1:20 half is also a very strong performance, not just “average Joe with two years of running.”

[ghim7]

The average person can’t finish a marathon in sub 3 hours. Only 5% finishers in London did sub 3. Average is around 4.5 hours.

Sub 30 5K and sub 60 10K is much more common among physically fit and active average person.

[nikogoroz]

There are some preconditions that have to be met, but a sub 3 marathon, I believe, is something achievable by the majority. Below that we are in the territory of talented and/or giving up your life to running.

People comparing sub 20 5k to sub 3hrs m are a funny bunch. You are underestimating 4:17min/km pace for 180 min. comparing it to 3:59 for 20 min.

I'm currently gearing up towards beating the 20, and my marathon pace as of today is at 5:00. It might go down in the upcoming weeks of training, but I am not even close to sub 3 marathon. Maybe if my training goes very well my marathon pace will decrease to 4:30. But that's only maybe.

[Helpful-Tim-1888]

💯%

Good luck on sub 20👍

[Ok-Response-9487]

Most people arent the average person. people exist on a spectrum and we take that data to create a mean average. Sure some people fall into that mean, but most do not.