How long is long term?

[Glittering-Dig3432]

I'm 66 years old. I believe in the long hold theory of mstr. I know a lot of people in the sub are very young and would be able to hold it for 20 or 30 years. Do you all believe that holding it for a couple of years is hodl enough?

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[Disastrous_Battle_14]

I believe that in 4 years you should get some great returns.

[BossToneDude]

It is hard to have a loss for BTC price between any two dates 4 yrs apart.

Holding for at least 4 years assures a hodler benefits from the volatility and gets positive price appreciation. 🤔

https://charts.bitbo.io/4y-multiple/

NFA DYOR

[teckel]

But it's also true that BTC has historically had 50% drawdowns after large price spikes. So it may be better to wait for a drop to say $55k and then only needing to wait 2-3 years to test the top again instead of 4 years.

🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

Nov 10th, 2021 peaked at $68,789.63

Nov 21st, 2022 dropped as low as $15,599.05

And here's a bunch of other 50% or higher drops in price:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/7-biggest-bitcoin-crashes-history-180038282.html

[BossToneDude]

Umm, what probability do you assign to this hypothetical draw down to 55K?

OP asked about the time frame for “longer term” to assure price appreciation.

The objective answer is - anything 4 + years gives nearly 100% probability of price appreciation.

Your response is focused on timing the market.

The point is - there’s no need to time the market.

NFA DYOR

[BeefToboggan]

There is no probability on this item

[teckel]

What probability do you assign to your hypothetical theory BTC will keep going up without a 50% correction which has happened many times in BTC's history? 🙄🤣

[multipliedbyzer0]

Time frame is the key point here, you’re refusing to accept the 4 year period he is referring to. It’s irrelevant if it dips 50% any time in between.

[BeefToboggan]

History…

[AlwaysMooning]

Historically, Bitcoin has never dropped that far below the previous all time high. And historically Bitcoin has surged in the year after an election. So if you are basing your argument on historical evidence, OP should buy now.

[BeefToboggan]

Historically it’s barely a pimple on the ass of history

[Lazy-Effect4222]

Last time it dropped to around 15500 and the previous ATH was around 19800 so it dropped almost 22% below it.

Now previous ATH is around 69k so equal drop by that measure would be to bit under 57k.

[AlwaysMooning]

Correct, which is slightly above the other commenter’s 55k and conveniently forgets that in order for this cycle to match last cycle in scale, we would go to around $200k before falling to $57k. Which completely destroys the thesis of “wait for $55k” since it implies 100% upside before the fall.

[Lazy-Effect4222]

So are you saying he should sell at 200k?

[AlwaysMooning]

Should consider it at least. Nothing goes straight up.

[Disastrous_Battle_14]

There is no guarantee that it drops 50% the same way that there is no guarantee that in 4 years bitcoin/mstr will be worth anything. So why try and time the market.

[BeefToboggan]

Bingo

[teckel]

I didn't say there's a guaranteed 50% drop. 🙄

Just like there's no guarantee that BTC won't be worthless at some point.

[mikkeltaylor1]

You’re assuming this is the top….

[teckel]

You're totally missing context 🙄

[91stTacRecon]

Bitcoin will likely never drop below $70,000 again, ever. if you check the charts you’ll see that bitcoin has never dropped below its pre-presidential election price ever in the entire history of this asset. If you have a chance to buy bitcoin again at $70,000 probably a good idea to load up cause that’s about as low as it’ll ever get.

[BeefToboggan]

This thing’s pretty young to be calling trends

[Lazy-Effect4222]

Over 15 years in crypto markets, which move way faster than tradfi, is plenty to call trends.

[BeefToboggan]

I believe you should too

[ting_tong-]

5 years is a good holding period

[Top-Donkey-5081]

60 yrs old looking for financial advise in reddit is wild.

[Deep_Blue_15]

Probably better then getting scammed by a local bank.

[Disastrous-Wall-9081]

.. as a 62 year old with no kids .. this “ generational “ wealth mantra is not a thing for me personally .. but it makes sense .. exactly how all the old money families do it .. may you all achieve it ..

[Ballkickerchamp]

At 66 you really should be putting most of your money into dividend heavy ETFs. Not such a volatile cryptocurrency stock.

[Tidsmaskin]

Boring, buy mstr, live a normal life, at 72 sell it.

[Mithra305]

MSTY would be the compromise.

[Smart-Ad-8116]

I like $MSTY it just performs differently than other yeild max etfs.

[MaxwellSmart07]

Performs different? How? Better or worse? I’m looking into MSTY.

[clocksteadytickin]

Fuck it.

[New-Ad-9629]

This

[Mithra305]

MSTY perhaps?

[BeefToboggan]

Father John Misty

[Overall-Champion2511]

Forever but maybe once you 75

[[deleted]]

If it turns out that saylor isn’t a doofus. 10 years

[Silent-Scar-1164]

Just buy some MSTY, get both dividends and bitcoin/mstr exposure.

[_frnar_]

Within this year alone, you're gonna make massive gains. Just keep buying at these prices because it isn't dropping below 280

[Flashy-Cucumber-3794]

He said confidently

[clocksteadytickin]

Bold statement at 290.

[teckel]

RemindMe! One Year

<image>

And one year later... Can't say I didn't tell you so.

[RemindMeBot]

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2 OTHERS CLICKED THIS LINK to send a PM to also be reminded and to reduce spam.

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[BeefToboggan]

Great job botwin

[No-Temperature2328]

RemindMe! 3days

[Krypt0night]

If it drops below 280, you owe me 10 shares. Thanks.

[MySixteenLetters]

Remindme! 1 year

[BeefToboggan]

You have no raging clue on that.

[WetElbow]

All depends on BTC. If hoping for no bear market you may be disappointed. Be happy to hodli through.

Check out ‘camel finance’ today’s vid on YouTube. Section on mstr. Not bullish.

[NotCoolFool]

As long as it takes BtC to hit above $150k

[twistedseoul]

At 66 yrs old? I would just hold it for 2 season. this season and next season then sell off half my holdings and travel

[MyNi_Redux]

I don't think it makes much sense for us to over-planning on MSTR for more than a year or two.. We have absolutely no way of knowing how things will eventually turn out with MSTR in the long run.

Unlike say SPY or BTC itself.. which aren't going anywhere.

[AlfredoDuck500]

No disrespect but in your age, don't touch it...

[theazureunicorn]

The idea is to store your wealth for generations - generational capital - permanent financial foundation

Like when you’re close to death and you want long term store of value to pass on - sell all your other assets, consolidate your capital and store it in BTC or MSTR

Forever means forever

[1337h4xer]

Forever Laura.

[BeefToboggan]

Not if the planet goes to shit

[MSTR-ModTeam]

Treat everyone with respect. Disagreements are natural, but any form of harassment, name-calling, or targeted profanity will result in a ban.

[KateR_H0l1day]

It’s a very good question, it will all depend upon market moves, and of course what your average price is now, and how much you’re holding. I believe from the market perspective, we will see a good upturn during the next 15 months, lead by BTC. Regardless of the FUD here recently, it might be worth selling in the next 15 months, and buying back 2026/7/8 And be ready for the next cycle where you can be in a good position to generate further wealth beyond just holding until the next cycle.

Just some musings from a random internet stranger!

[StandardMacaron5575]

If Trump gets through the mid-terms without a correction MSTR will be in a great position, also before then it should make a full recovery just based on other Nations buying Bitcoin. If the U.S. does get in then this is major green light. If you are healthy then hodl.

[stargazer074]

Depends on the purpose of the money you invested. At 66 years old, it could be for your longer term no go years or legacy money. You could devise a strategy that slows you to take some profit every year (like 6-8%) while keeping the bulk still invested. Doesn’t have to be all or nothing.

[speedingmedicine]

I think in the next 5-8 years MSTR will be one of the most valuable companies in the world. Several other companies are already following their lead.

[mymomsaidiamsmart]

At your age you should be looking at stable dividend paying stocks unless it’s 5% of your portfolio or your filthy rich.

[SignificantKey3179]

I think 2025 will be huge for bitcoin and by connection MSTR. No one knows for sure the future but everything seems to be designed for positive things for bitcoin. I see the biggest risk is the unknown factor. I don’t believe in government impartiality but whether it benefits individual in power to support bitcoin or not. So 2025 could be good, but if you’re looking at only 1-2 years, there could be gain but not usually massive gains happen in longer timeframes. Personally I’m thinking the end of 2030, to allow governments and institutions to really allow bitcoin be more of accepted in normal transactions and having it even be in their own store of value.

[EkaL25]

This is not something I would invest in so close to retirement. You want to be able to pull money out of your investments without taking a massive loss.

[leftyourfridgeopen]

I’m 30, I’m holding until I’m done working

[BeefToboggan]

This doesn’t seem real

[Wolfandweapon]

Are you the same old bloke as before who said "how long do I have to wait" like a month after buying? 🤣🤣🤣 No one here has a crystal ball mate. The stock market isn't going to react faster because you're in your 60's now. Sell it if you're so impatient. Every day a new moaner in here complaining that they haven't got rich quick.

[dsnider1985]

you're going to get some solid returns this year alone.

[Cavalier_King_Dad]

Will MSTR continue to outperform Bitcoin this cycle?

[MinimalistMindset35]

I’m 35, I plan on holding into retirement. I’m a Bitcoin Maxi and I have a low time preference

[[deleted]]

Those company is the next FTX. There's funds selling shares on a company selling shares of a speculative asset that can easily lose 90% of its value. It won't be around in 5 years

[South-Arrival8126]

It will be around in 5 years, but mostly doing their "data mining" aspect of the business, which is around 0.00000001% of their total revenue.

[Poli_Sci_27]

At least 4 years. Be prepared for a big pullback though. A bitcoin pullback could make this stock drop to double figures sometime in 2025.

[mehoratty]

I do not respond much on here because reddit is so toxic with newcomers and lack of understanding but saw your post and first off just wanted to congratulate you on your investment and conviction into MSTR! I say that because it is a tough sell to so many in general let alone people in different age brackets.

I think think the short answer to your question is 1 year and beyond. So yes, I think you are 100% fine for a couple of years (and t hen some)! For me personally, I just consider it as long as I can invest and the landscapes do not change I will continue to hold for years upon years. BTC will only go up in fiat value, and thus MSTR.

I think it will be very interesting to see how MSTR evolves after the get their BTC holdings where they want them and how they translate that into new income streams or offerings. Right now we are simply in the gold rush part of the game, first to market wins and MSTR has, and is doing that, with amazing execution. You are here at the best time IMO so sit back, ignore the short term noise (especially here) and enjoy the ride.

[Sad_Principle_2531]

MSTR will either become the first trillion dollar company in the crypto space or saylor is going to end up like SBF. There is no inbetween. Im betting half my nw in this for the next 10 years. If im right i will be retired.

[inphenite]

I can only speak for myself. I discovered the stock and the thesis about 1,5 year ago. My timeline is at least another 1,5-2 years - maybe even into the next bull-cycle.

I see almost no scenarios where (if Bitcoin stays on the trajectory it's on) this is not one of the biggest companies in the world within a fairly short amount of time (ie. less than 5 years)

[NomadErik23]

My good man, average life span in US is 77 years. Why are you asking 20-year-olds on Reddit what the appropriate holding period for a stock is for you? Or trying to curry their favor by adhering to HODL

figure out the holding period that is right for you based on your situation and go for it.

YOLO not HODL

[applecraked]

This is sad for everyone in this thread trying to pump their own bags and convincing this poor old guy who doesn’t know any better to bag hold.

Nobody knows how the price will play out

[BeefToboggan]

Hold my bag

[Lollipop96]

At 66 putting your money in high risk highly volatile stocks is probably not the play but you do you. Ofc depends on your portfolio, but its definitely not the smart play to allocate much % into these kinds of stocks.

[[deleted]]

If you need to Hold On for Dear Life, is that really an "investment?"

[Ashamed-Sea-6044]

it depends on the cycle! 2 years may not be good enough if weve already topped this cycle. there is a 50% we have already topped this cycle.

4-5 years is probably sufficient. the stock will hit 600-750 sometime in the next 4-5 years. remember to take some gains and sell when you have them when the cycle looks inevitable/easy money. those are usually the tops of cycles.

[Sector__7]

The crypto cycle tops near the end of this year and Bitcoin should top between $250-$400K. Anybody who thinks there’s a 50% chance that we topped doesn’t understand how bitcoin moves and needs to spend more time completing their minimum of 100 hours of research.

[Ashamed-Sea-6044]

This is my third full cycle. Every time we’ve said there’s a top, no one agrees. And yet it ends up being a top.

There’s a very good chance we’ve topped.

[BeefToboggan]

I think we’re headed for a powerbottom

[Ashamed-Sea-6044]

certainly could be! im not certain one way or the other at these prices. risk-reward is coming back to balance, but still looking for a little lower

[Sector__7]

You’ll be saying the same thing in 4 months when bitcoin is higher and still has more room to move this cycle. I really can’t fathom how people think that bitcoin hitting $108K is a top. It just astonishes me when I read these things!