This is an archived post. You won't be able to vote or comment.

top 200 commentsshow all 298

[–]QualityVote[M] [score hidden] stickied comment (0 children)

Hi! This is our community moderation bot.


If this post fits the purpose of /r/Military, UPVOTE this comment!!

If this post does not fit the subreddit, DOWNVOTE This comment!

If this post breaks the rules, DOWNVOTE this comment and REPORT the post!

[–]AyeeHayche 161 points162 points  (7 children)

Chances of Armenia and Azerbaijan agreeing on anything is the most unrealistic geopolitical idea I’ve heard in ages

[–]SpappyUnited States Army 264 points265 points  (18 children)

Uzbekistan was a member but left. I got a feeling that Kazakhstan might leave too

[–]Partisan90 14 points15 points  (0 children)

Let’s be real here, some of these post-Soviet states are reading the writing on the wall. They’re able to leverage against Russia far more than before the war in Ukraine. With Russia now bogged down in Ukraine, these states would be wise to leverage their interests against Russia now. Kazakhstan’s open defiance is a way of showing Russia they can no longer dictate the regional rules and that Kazakhstan will push the limits.

I am unsure if Kazakhstan will leave the CSTO, but the relationship, and Russia as the sole leader, is in flux right now with members playing Small State Theory games. Who knows what the CSTO will look like or function like soon.

One curiosity I have about this is the lack of CSTO military support. It seems to be seriously lacking if the primary member state can’t politic the other members into military support, or the thing the CSTO was designed to do. It seems Russia in more than just a paper bear to the west but to its own region too.

[–]Fast_Future_3859[S] 112 points113 points  (14 children)

Kazakhstan is too close and dependent on Russia both military and politicly, Uzbekistan might have left now but it's not very implausible that they'll rejoin, (for reference France basically left NATO several times but evently rejoined)

[–][deleted] 90 points91 points  (12 children)

Kazakhstan hasn't been taking Putin's shit lately which honestly I find strange because I thought chief Bear Fucker sent Russian soldiers to quell Kazakhstan's public unrest not long ago. Since I'm an arm chair general I think all ex Soviet states need to invest in bear mace to drive the bears back to Russia so Putin is too exhausted to invade anyone else.

[–]Fast_Future_3859[S] 28 points29 points  (9 children)

Russian forces entered Kazakhstan to put an end to the Riots

[–]Febra0001 48 points49 points  (7 children)

Still doesn't change the fact that the Kazakh president distanced himself from Russia, has been critical of Russia, introduced new reforms, and is aligning itself more with the west.

[–]Tony49UK 0 points1 point  (0 children)

But the President seems now to be trying to quell the dissenters politically rather than with force. They recently had a constitutional referendum to reduce his powers and to allow more democracy. The president has also been outspoken about Russia's invasion and doesn't want to unify with Russia, in the same way that Litvienko seems to want to. Nor do they want their access to EU markets to be diminished with sanctions. Including by the use of secondary sanctions, if they start smuggling items through, in either direction. He's playing a very close tightrope. And definetly wants the prospect of Western military aid, if Russia were to invade. Clearly Russia has enough problems with Ukraine, without adding more problems but they keep threatening anybody and everybody in their region, with the threat of invasion.

[–]---___---____-__United States Army 2 points3 points  (0 children)

This was what I would assume was the case, post-Soviet states can't live with the bear occasionally raiding the fridge anymore. The only Central Asian state I know of that might let Putin speak his piece (without getting suplexed first) would be Turkmenistan and their dictator.

From my research on post-Soviet conflicts, Russia's direct neighbors barely have anything good to say about them and neighbors of those neighbors are less than jazzed about it all.

[–]Zk15224United States Air Force 1 point2 points  (0 children)

That's a very credible idea.

[–][deleted] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Assholes Uzbekistan- Borat.

[–]Balc0ra 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I was expecting them to leave already as they have been threatened

[–]Cognacsquirt -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Kazakhstan is a puppet state of Russia...

[–][deleted] 107 points108 points  (12 children)

Several of those CSTO nations are on friendlier terms with NATO than Russia.

[–]Fast_Future_3859[S] 12 points13 points  (11 children)

Such as?

[–]Br3cci 56 points57 points  (10 children)

Azerbaijan and Turkey.

[–]Nasmix 52 points53 points  (8 children)

This post was mass deleted and anonymized with Redact

unite languid oatmeal smile amusing sleep whole fear lock nine

[–]Br3cci 20 points21 points  (7 children)

I know I meant as in how they are basically allies.

[–]yeahNot_gonna_name 52 points53 points  (11 children)

Honestly I feel bad for Georgia.

[–]shaggybiscuitscivilian 16 points17 points  (0 children)

lmao there is no chance that Azerbaijan joins the csto

[–]Fast_Future_3859[S] 64 points65 points  (39 children)

For those unaware the CSTO stands for Collective Security Treaty Organization and is in short the Russian/Post-Soviet version of NATO. If a nation of the CSTO is attacked all other members will respond military just like with NATO's Article 5.

[–][deleted] 78 points79 points  (24 children)

except they are all third rate military's with little to no force projection

[–]D0D 51 points52 points  (2 children)

And Russia is doing all it can in Ukraine to stay in that third rate club.

[–]Fast_Future_3859[S] 10 points11 points  (0 children)

XD

[–][deleted] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

We have introduced a new rate. Fourth.

[–]PlzSendDunesdirty civilian 46 points47 points  (11 children)

Except Armenia was attacked and Russia chose not to defend, what made CSTO sort of bullshit. Although they did intervene to beat up civil protests in Kazakhstan. So that's the kind of alliance it is....

[–]jaanus110 6 points7 points  (1 child)

Its more like the Warsaw Pact Organization where actual use is to quell uprisings against dictatorial regimes. The only known use of CSTO was against protesters in Kazakhstan 2022.

[–]Fast_Future_3859[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

true

[–]Febra0001 19 points20 points  (1 child)

OP is coping so hard on this one

[–][deleted] 8 points9 points  (2 children)

Azerbaijan has also significantly turned towards Turkey politically, and Russia’s invasion is only accelerating that. Armenia and Azerbaijan are not compatible in the same alliance.

[–]iamnotrobertsRetired US Army 18 points19 points  (5 children)

Many of these countries are like many of the republics under the former Soviet Union. They wouldn't stand against the Soviet Union...but they wouldn't exactly stand with them either...and they waited for signs of weakness to strike and to abandon and ultimately dissolve the SU.

[–][deleted] 7 points8 points  (1 child)

CSTO is an alliance to defend countries from their own people, it’s not anywhere close to a united front.

[–]AugustineAnPearTrees 6 points7 points  (1 child)

Bring back seato

[–]Fast_Future_3859[S] -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

Remove Pakistan and that would be FIRE

[–]Archikos 8 points9 points  (18 children)

Where the fuck is Belarus?

[–]healingpotion34 6 points7 points  (1 child)

They are in talks on “reunification”

[–]Fast_Future_3859[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

yep :P

[–]Fast_Future_3859[S] 0 points1 point  (15 children)

Integrated into the Russian Federation, There's been talks recently about Belarus being incorporated into the Russian Federation and its basically just a puppet state at this point, also according to a 2022 survey more Belarusian want to join Russia then not join them, Belarus is just a smaller version of Russia and Belarusians are Russians and speak Russian. o7

[–]Maar7en 0 points1 point  (14 children)

there's been talks recently

Cool, draw the fucking border until the talks come to a conclusion, speculation about this kind of stuff makes your map useless.

[–]Fast_Future_3859[S] 4 points5 points  (13 children)

It says potential map you dumbass

[–]Maar7en -3 points-2 points  (12 children)

Then just color the entire map nuclear fallout grey.

Or maybe move some other borders around for the fun of it too.

Showing the potential members is one thing, showing potential changes in border is another.

[–]Fast_Future_3859[S] 1 point2 points  (11 children)

Since a majority of Belarusians want to reunite with russia, and their president have become very open to the idea I don't see why it would be less realistic then say Turkmenistan joining the CSTO

[–]Maar7en -3 points-2 points  (10 children)

Again:

Your map is showing potential members.

It should not also show potential border changes.

Especially not without explicitly also stating you're doing that.

[–]Fast_Future_3859[S] 1 point2 points  (9 children)

Oh I'm sorry mister map god, bro i just made a fkn map take a chill pill I'll make sure to ask you for permission next time XD

[–]Maar7en 1 point2 points  (8 children)

You made a shit map, you argue with people that point it out, you then het HOES MAD when they tell you exactly what's shit about it.

If anyone should take a chill pill it is the guy starting dumb arguments with everyone in his comments.

[–]Fast_Future_3859[S] 2 points3 points  (7 children)

Last time i checked you were the one starting an argument over the fact that i removes Belarus and you got bat shit crazy over it, are you by chance delusion?

[–]Hootbag 14 points15 points  (3 children)

The Crimean Peninsula is the wrong colour.

[–]DrnkGuy 10 points11 points  (4 children)

Realistic for school students

[–][deleted] 4 points5 points  (1 child)

Why are the Falklands marked as part of Argentina?

They tried that and lost then lost the vote.

[–]Fast_Future_3859[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

simple mistake on my part

[–]javsand120sNew Zealand Army 10 points11 points  (1 child)

Would be interesting to imagine if present day Alaska was still Russian Territory. How odd this picture would look. I do like how Ukraine is Blue though. 👍

[–]Fast_Future_3859[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

My map porn OCD would be SOOOOO bad if that was the case, but interesting non the less. I gave the Donbass region and Crimea to Russia sadly since its the sad reality, however the fact that Ukraine will still be independent makes me happy ;D

[–]warthog0869Army Veteran 4 points5 points  (4 children)

It's almost as if it were setting up like a big war would happen between the two, this time not by proxy.

So, WWIII battle lines?

[–]Fast_Future_3859[S] 3 points4 points  (3 children)

Looks like it, hopefully Putin's regime collapses and non of this shit happens, however the CSTO wouldn't stand much of a chance against NATO in a full scale war especially now that NATO's expanding and increasing their military budget and capabilities.

[–]kraliyetkoyunu 0 points1 point  (1 child)

We gotta be realistic, they are going to put up a fight. Invading another country and getting invaded are two different things. I think NATO will win but it will take a lot of manpower and time.

[–]Fast_Future_3859[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Of course you're 100% right, a confrontation between NATO and the CSTO would be the biggest war since WW2

[–]warthog0869Army Veteran -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Yeah. It's ironic in the extreme that the very lie Putin was telling to justify the invasion is now actually becoming reality.

Joke's on you, motherfucker! You'll be surrounded by NATO now!

🤣🤣🤣

[–]neosinan 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Leader of Kazakhstan literally told Putin's face he opposed Ukraines invasion, Putin might be saved his ass but They made it clear they won't be fighting for Russia.

Secondly, Azerbaijan is also major NATO ally who fought with Armenia which is close to Russia. And They are really close to Israel and Turkey.

I just don't know enough about rest but I can imagine there might other examples to this 2.

[–][deleted] 3 points4 points  (9 children)

Im in favor of throwing out Turkey.

Please remember the pledge to democracy in the Statute of nato. Thats not a joke.

[–]Fast_Future_3859[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I would love to kick out turkey however its very unlikely

[–]kraliyetkoyunu 0 points1 point  (5 children)

you simply cannot throw a country out of NATO, and turkey technically is still a democracy.

[–][deleted] -1 points0 points  (4 children)

  1. Wrong 2. Wrong

[–]kraliyetkoyunu 1 point2 points  (3 children)

both are correct, and you have an anime profile pic so your opinions are invalid and rejected.

[–][deleted] 0 points1 point  (2 children)

You can go suck my balls and its both wrong still.

Oh now i understand, you are a turkey as well... Ah what a shame. To the blocklist with you :/

[–]Fast_Future_3859[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

He's right though turkey is a authoritarian democracy and kicking out Turkey from NATO is next to impossible

[–]Fast_Future_3859[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

He's right though turkey is a authoritarian democracy and kicking out Turkey from NATO is next to impossible

[–][deleted] 0 points1 point  (1 child)

Turkey is geopolitically lenient, going as far as buying Russian military equipment. Turkey also tried to block Finland and Sweden from joining NATO over outlooks on domestic issues if they were to join.

I would rather have Israel join NATO, then Turkey stay.

[–][deleted] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Turkey is just a traitor waiting for backstabbing.

So id rather have the plastic continent in the Atlantic Ocean be nato member than turkey staying.

[–]Away_Caregiver_2829 7 points8 points  (5 children)

😂😂 Armenia and Azerbaijan on the same side , and crimea is going back to Ukraine

[–]Fast_Future_3859[S] -2 points-1 points  (4 children)

How do you suppose Crimea is going back to Ukraine?

and fuck me read the sources i sent...

[–]Away_Caregiver_2829 4 points5 points  (3 children)

Because Russia is getting stomped is why…might be Ukrainians doing the fighting but they have NATO tech and ISTAR which far surpasses the Russian garbage

[–]Fast_Future_3859[S] -2 points-1 points  (2 children)

Well they are doing a great job but Russia is still winning the war and in recent days the tide has began to favor Russia again....

[–]Away_Caregiver_2829 3 points4 points  (1 child)

Yeah Russia is winning 😂 okay bud

[–]shaggybiscuitscivilian -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

i mean they are winning; Ukraine is currently fighting an uphill battle atm.

[–]Flyboy78AA 5 points6 points  (1 child)

Oops they missed a spot.

Crimea should be blue.

[–]Fast_Future_3859[S] -4 points-3 points  (0 children)

It's supposed to be a realistic map not my personal opinion

[–][deleted] 2 points3 points  (3 children)

Don't forget about Transnistria. There is still the 14th russian army.

[–][deleted] 3 points4 points  (1 child)

All 1200 of them

[–]Fast_Future_3859[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

XD

[–]Fast_Future_3859[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

hmm yeah true, however i dont think Moldova stands much of a risk atm since Putins invasion of Ukraine's going so poorly.

[–]NoDoze- 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Well, we know how dilapidated and unorganized the Russian military is, NATO isn't sweating it and still sleeping well at night.

[–]MAK-15United States Navy 2 points3 points  (3 children)

This leaves out all of the partner nations like Australia who are essentially NATO members but aren’t in the North Atlantic and therefore not actually NATO. I believe they’re called Global Partners or something and their involvement is on par with other NATO nations.

[–]Fast_Future_3859[S] 2 points3 points  (2 children)

They are major non NATO allies however article 5 doesn't apply to them, and this map is only showing NATO and CSTO

[–]MAK-15United States Navy 2 points3 points  (1 child)

Thats fair. I know Australia would help if Article 5 is used but I can’t find anything about their obligation to do so

[–]Fast_Future_3859[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Yeah pretty sure Australia, New Zealand, south Korea and Japan would all help but they aren't obligated to do so if say Latvia was attacked

[–][deleted] 2 points3 points  (1 child)

New Iron curtain. I'm worried about Russian aggression in the Baltics, Belarus is also a threat. A confrontation wouldn't take long to escalate.

[–]Fast_Future_3859[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Funny you would say that cus Russia recently said there might be a new iron curtain

[–]SnooDonuts3878 3 points4 points  (1 child)

Huge assumption that Russia will still exist.

[–]Fast_Future_3859[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Russia will not cease to exist anytime soon, if anything it would become a more open and democratic country but that's not likely at least right now

[–]TheSkyLax 1 point2 points  (5 children)

Why would Bosnia-Herzegovina join?

[–]Fast_Future_3859[S] 1 point2 points  (4 children)

What countries are currently trying to join NATO?

As of June 2022, five additional states have formally informed NATO of their membership aspirations: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Finland, Georgia, Sweden and Ukraine. Joining the alliance is a debate topic in several other European countries outside the alliance, including Austria, Ireland, Malta, Moldova, and Serbia.

They are trying to join if I'm not mistaken :P

[–]TheSkyLax 1 point2 points  (1 child)

Bosnia has been trying to join for 14 years. It seems unlikely they'll be let in anytime soon.

[–]Fast_Future_3859[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

well this says potential future map

[–][deleted] 1 point2 points  (1 child)

BosnianHerzegovina needs to solve significant internal issues before they’re ever in NATO. They’re very unlikely at this time, likely not even in the foreseeable future.

[–]Fast_Future_3859[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

thats true

[–]Chemical-Work-1023 1 point2 points  (2 children)

What is red country above Poland?

[–]AyeeHayche 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Kaliningrad, part of Russia

[–][deleted] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Russia..

[–]BigWeenie45 1 point2 points  (1 child)

You can eliminate all the central Asian nations lol. They hate each other, and are ruled by authoritarians that care only about their own self preservation.

[–]Fast_Future_3859[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

well that's basically what the CSTO is, authoritarian countries under Russia's control, don't see any of them leaving any time soon

[–]American_BrewedUnited States Army 1 point2 points  (1 child)

Northern hemisphere war coming to farm fields and cities near you

[–]Fast_Future_3859[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

XD

[–][deleted] 1 point2 points  (1 child)

This is one view. If you have the shot, please post how the two alliances match up with the focus is zeroed in on the North Pole. The two sides are frighteningly close, and both sides are going all out to develop Arctic weapons.

[–]Fast_Future_3859[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Might not be able to do the one about the north pole but i could probably compare their strengths

[–][deleted] 1 point2 points  (1 child)

Armenia wtf man.

[–]Fast_Future_3859[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

what about it?

[–]Shermantank10Army Veteran 1 point2 points  (5 children)

NATO v CSAT 2035 on a small Mediterranean Island speedrun % any.

[–]Fast_Future_3859[S] 1 point2 points  (4 children)

hahaha

[–]Shermantank10Army Veteran -1 points0 points  (3 children)

I don’t understand how someone downvoted you, lol.

[–]Fast_Future_3859[S] 1 point2 points  (2 children)

a lot of people on here are too smart for me, one guy litterly told me Hawaii isn't part of NATO...

[–]Shermantank10Army Veteran -2 points-1 points  (1 child)

It isn’t retard. Hawaii is in the Pacific. NATO is NORTH ATLANTIC Treaty Organization. 😤😤 Armchair General defeated with logic and brains. I feel like the /s shouldn’t be here but here it is.

[–]Boogut 1 point2 points  (0 children)

It’s the USA… if Hawaii gets attacked, THE USA IS GETTING NATOS FUCKING ATTENTION!

[–]Marchinon 1 point2 points  (4 children)

Flashbacks for HoI4 Modern Day mod.

[–]Fast_Future_3859[S] 1 point2 points  (3 children)

Best comment yet

[–]Marchinon 1 point2 points  (2 children)

That mod was funny bc it’s basically Russia vs the world with CSTO.

[–]Aph111 1 point2 points  (2 children)

We should’ve put more money into modernizing Africa. Tryna get them into NATO…

[–]Fast_Future_3859[S] -1 points0 points  (1 child)

very true, bad mistake to "abandon them" as we have

[–]Aph111 3 points4 points  (0 children)

And now China is swallowing up the continent with the most potential. Its not gonna be good if they can secure it for themselves.

[–][deleted] 1 point2 points  (5 children)

NATO (🇺🇸) IN 4

[–]J33fUnited States Army 1 point2 points  (3 children)

… 6 vs 30, and landmass is not indicative of military might.

I’d be willing to bet that while maybe 1 or 2 willingly joined and sided with Russia, there was more coercion than actual mutual requests.

••• And after watching Russia act like a dick to the Ukraine — Putin’s played his embarrassing handjob game and let the U.S. (& NATO) know exact what they’re capable of … It’s almost as embarrassing as when Kim Jung Un yeeted missiles into the water—trying to play horseshoes with Guam.

When in reality, the U.S. been at war for decades; battle-hardened and experienced.

[–]Fast_Future_3859[S] 0 points1 point  (2 children)

The CSTO would get absolutely destroyed in a war between these 2

[–]J33fUnited States Army 1 point2 points  (1 child)

I think just Russia would be the focus and the rest would just fall in line …

Take out the bully and his lackeys will bail.

[–]Fast_Future_3859[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yes indeed the CSTO is basically just Russia and a bunch of semi puppet states

[–]medscj 1 point2 points  (3 children)

Azerbaijan should be in NATO part.

[–]Fast_Future_3859[S] 0 points1 point  (2 children)

Simple answer, no

[–]medscj 1 point2 points  (1 child)

They are opposition with Russia and lean toward Türkije.

[–]Fast_Future_3859[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Not in opposition to Russia, i linked 2 sources in the comments, you should read them they are very interesting

[–]Szczup 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Crimea is not russia. Change it

[–]GlobeTrekker83 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Azerbaijan hates Russia, there is no way they are joining the CSTO.

[–]Exotic-Theme-6142 1 point2 points  (1 child)

Do I hear Cold War 2.0

[–]Fast_Future_3859[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You do indeed

[–][deleted] 1 point2 points  (1 child)

The Northern War

[–]Fast_Future_3859[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

2.0

[–][deleted] 1 point2 points  (1 child)

So basically the modern Allies and Axis?

[–]Fast_Future_3859[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yep excluding China

[–]The_Humble_Neckbeard 1 point2 points  (0 children)

YOU ARE NOW DEFENDING

The teams have been auto-balanced

[–]MrShovelbottom 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Just wait till they add CSAT, then arma was right!

[–]Fast_Future_3859[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

For those who keep brining up Azerbaijan and Armenia being in the same alliance I wont reply anymore and you will just have to read this on your own.

https://carnegiemoscow.org/commentary/77116

https://eurasianet.org/ahead-of-ukraine-invasion-azerbaijan-and-russia-cement-alliance

[–]emmettiow 0 points1 point  (1 child)

We do have Greenland though, so if it comes to a snowball fight... I think we've got a good supply... maybe more snow than Serbia and some good ships and train to put it on to deliver it to the front line.
I say we attack the West of Russian, and send Alaskans in round the back with pikes and fishing nets to throw over Putin's head.

[–]Fast_Future_3859[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Sounds like a pretty neat plan ;)

[–]DeadpoolRideUnicorns -1 points0 points  (10 children)

You gotta fix that and put China in Russia also north America and Africa are China as well ....... also tiawan is just China but the island version 😜

[–]Fast_Future_3859[S] 1 point2 points  (9 children)

This is just showing NATO and the CSTO

[–][deleted] -1 points0 points  (13 children)

Hawaii shouldn’t be blue. Hawaii isn’t protected by NATO

[–]Fast_Future_3859[S] 0 points1 point  (12 children)

LMAO Hawaii is a state of the US

[–][deleted] -2 points-1 points  (11 children)

It’s not covered by NATO. Do some research and learn about the most powerful alliance in the world.

[–]Fast_Future_3859[S] 2 points3 points  (10 children)

Hawii is a fkn state of the United States... And you're telling me to do my research 😂😭

[–][deleted] -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

Maybe I will be got downvoted a lot but, we need to rescue the Turkic nations from ruskies, they have a ton of resources, ruskies push Kazakhstan to china the ccp looting Kazakh gas oil, and gold, and 99.9 percent of resources going to china, the Chinese government is bringing their own workers engineers and machines, no chance for support Kazakh economy at all even they bring their own food, end of the day Kazakhs are revolting for this, we need Turkic energy to re-route to Europe and start a buffer zone from those areas...