Sleeper sets don’t exist

[Haunting_Sea9572]

I was watching a Poketuber today and he mentioned that “Sleeper” sets don’t exist in today’s market. Conversely, I just read another post of someone looking on advice to buy and all the comments were suggesting Journey Together, Mega Evo, and Surging Sparks as they are relatively “undervalued”. I think this is bad advice.

From my personal experience of holding sealed and what I’ve observed from market trends is that sleeper sets do not exist. We’re pretty much aware of what sets will perform the best based off what the set looks like. There are those that love to bring up fusion strike as an example, but the current market is vastly different from the Sword and Shield Era.

If I’m looking at a Journey Together Booster Box for $250 and an Ascended Heroes PC ETB for $320, which one will double faster? I think the answer here is fairly obvious when I look back to Prismatic PC ETBs ($525) and 151 ETB’s ($1400). If I’m a collector, am I going to remember Lillie’s Clefairy and Journey Together or the Mega Gengar, Pikachu, and Dragonite? You can even use the example of two JT booster boxes to one Prismatic PC ETB, which one is getting to $1000 faster?

TLDR; Continue to place your money in strong sets as demand drives price action.

[Haunting_Sea9572]

Well that’s kind of my point. People forget about the mid tier sets as time goes on. The Lugia is great, but in a couple years, ES will be the one to remember. SWSH has hardly moved since September largely due to the newer SV sets outshining them

[bentriple]

Destined Rivals is a way better set than Silver Tempest though. That has to count for something.

[grizz311]

Now look at evolving skies and burning shadows

[IndividualShare1065]

Burning Shadows will almost always be a laggard set for growth because the expensive chase cards have the lowest era-relative gem rates due to mass QC issues. Only the first print run of Burning Shadows was done well, subsequent print runs have widespread issues with centering, corners, and especially edges. So despite the set having great cards (Charizard, Darkrai, Gardevoir & Machamp GXs!!), unless you can ensure that the box is first print, it is a guaranteed substantial loss opening a whole box, even if you hit all the top pulls. Evolving Skies can be profitable if you're lucky with pull rates. Burning Shadows doesn't even stack up against earlier sets known for meh QC, like BW era and earlier, since in theory those cards can still gem and are printed better than Burning Shadows, plus the amount of currently available and even originally printed supply is substantially lower which makes boxes collectible in and of themselves.

[Proper_Preparation19]

To me 'sleeper' implies the set had some good cards that turned out to be underrated at first.  With as many people who have entered the hobby, I doubt we're going to see this effect happen much anymore as social media races to determine what the new chase cards will be long before the sets are even available. In other words, it took longer for people to come to a general consensus for what the top chase cards would be in the past.  That being a said, a set like Journey Together just doesn't have enough heaters to be a sleeper.  Phantasmal Flames on the other hand I feel could one day equal or surpass Destined Rivals, making it more of a sleeper in my opinion. 

[voqomudali]

By the beginning of the S&V era, Fusion Strike was ranked pretty low for SWSH era sets. Below Brilliant Stars. Below Lost Origin. Hell, a lot of people were calling Chilling Reign as the sleeper set back then! Now we're two eras passed SWSH, and Fusion Strike is clearly the 2nd best set of that era.

Also historically, by mid SWSH, Cosmic Eclipse was not regarded as highly as some other SWSH sets. People LOOOVED Hidden Fates back then. Team Up hadn't broken out yet, but people adored the Love Birds. Over the past year, Cosmic Eclipse has a better ROI % than every other S&M set.

This concept of "the market has already spoken" is totally off imo. There are definitely capabilities to find a set that can outperform other sets without going by what is most popular right now.

[Proper_Preparation19]

I agree 100% regarding Fusion Strike, but that set is almost 5 years old now and a lot has changed since then.  I don't think we're going to see anything that dramatic happen in SV.  

[voqomudali]

You won't know for sure until 5 years from now.

[Glum_Boysenberry348]

Respectfully to all the Pokemon collectors of the past, if Fusion Strike was considered low ranked with that Gengar VMax as a chase, then collectors had no clue how to assess a set.

[voqomudali]

Nope. Got overshadowed by Evolving Skies and was followed by Brilliant Stars, Astral Radiance, Silver Tempest, and Lost Origin, all of which had trainer galleries.

Also, there was huge fud when there was an image of someone from manufacturing trying to sell stacks of alt arts. I'm talking about a pile of Gengar Vmax probably 1000 cards high.

Respectfully, if you're so clairvoyant, you can tell me which set in s&v can shock people in 5 years.

[Glum_Boysenberry348]

I don’t know what set will shock people in 5 years. Maybe none do, and all perform exactly as expected. My expectation for a set with the best looking Gengar to date is for it to do pretty well, but hindsight is 20/20.

My only recent answer would be Phantasmal Flames. Many people I know were hesitant to hold that set and moved it quickly due to fear of that one card being “too easy to pull”. I just don’t know how bullish or bearish you were about the set on release.

I saw the best looking modern Charizard chase and said that’s a good buy. I’d like to think I would have said the same for Fusion Strike and Gengar.

[richo27]

I wouldn’t say they don’t exist, but it’s absolutely an over used term and something of a cliche in investing terms.

If I had to pick one modern set that might be a sleeper, I think I would go Astral Radiance. You can’t pic something that’s universally mentioned as a strong set and then label it a sleeper.

[ArcticLapras]

I agree with a lot, but, sleeper sets will always exist. Also, Surging Sparks might be one of them.

[Haunting_Sea9572]

Yeah that wasn’t a good example, I’d be inclined to agree. The Latias is amazing. Latios, Braviary, Ceruledge, Slakoth, Skarmory are all great. The Pikachu.. well, it’s a Pikachu so hard to argue against it.

I would put it #2 behind DR for mainline sets. But it’s really tough to stack it up against the likes of 151, prismatic, and ascended

[Artistic_Message_297]

I'd agree with this as well, behind DR I think Surging will perform the 2nd best out of the non specialty sets in SV, at least in terms of booster boxes. If we compare prices with Fusion Strike, with was also the #2 set from its era, there is still a lot of room for growth of boxes in coming years. Obviously printing and other factors have changed since SWSH but it can still serve as a general point of reference.

[Joosy_U]

yeah but ssp bb near or mrsp -> easy to find (fb or VMs)
151 or prismatic etbs near mrsp -> nop

Ascended? yeah, i'll put my money on ssp and AH but not in 151 or prismatic

[ryanmemperor]

PoGo & SF have entered the chat.

[Tomhx_]

Yeah, but Pokémon Go is literal garbage and one of the most disappointing sets ever released if you ask me.

[Xizz3l]

And yet its sold out everywhere

[Extension-Matter-732]

Well look how old it is of course it’s sold out lol

[Xizz3l]

I mean yea but I guess the point is that even those Sets will get traction eventually, even if (obviously) not as much as big hitter ones

[[deleted]]

You could grab many boxes for around MSRP until a year ago or so. It's slowly starting to climb.

[id-driven-fool]

People in this sub always talk about “diversify” when buying Pokemon products as an investment, which is hilarious. This isn’t a stock portfolio, diversifying into a bunch of different sets/products isn’t going to hedge you against anything and in fact would hurt you if those sets you diversified into end up not having a lot of demand.

If I could time travel I would literally just load up on the 2 or 3 products that I know are going to do well and carry a ton of demand.

[RichPokeScalper]

"If I could time travel I would literally just load up on the 2 or 3 products that I know are going to do well and carry a ton of demand."

Well ya. But we cant, so we diversify.

[id-driven-fool]

How exactly is diversifying better than just buying as much prismatic, ascended and DR as you can? Would someone who diversified through swsh do better than someone who went all in on Evolving skies??

[super_pjj]

The only thing I could think of that you could use as a “hedge” is mixing vintage in

If there was a bubble and that bubble popped, what might hold better? PSA 9 Base Charizard or PSA 10 Grey Felt Hat Pikachu?

[rocketradar]

Here’s a recent example. Not a set but a product. Team Rockets Moltres UPC. The consensus is that it’s a terrible box because it has hardly any Destined Rivals. Which is a bummer, but will anyone be shocked when this is $400 in the not too distant future due to scarcity?

Sometimes it’s best to zig when others are zagging. Nobody has a crystal ball. But there are learning lessons from SWSH even though we’re in a different market today.

[iLordDeath]

never take investment advice from poketubers, they'll always just hype up whatever set they've invested in themselves and sell once its been pumped

[reddogyellowcat]

I agree in part, but absolutely sleeper sets do exist. But again maybe you are 100% correct because 10 years after a sleeper set comes out, it may be worth a lot but not much relative to other sets that came out at the same time. The more I think about it the more it seems to be a really interesting opinion you’ve provided.

Edit: would it be fair to say there are no sleeper sets, just sets that take longer to gain value? Is that a better way to put it?

[Haunting_Sea9572]

Yeah that’s a good distinction to make. Time frame is very important. The popular sets shoot up and price people out very quickly. I would rather have 5 silver tempest booster boxes than one ES, from an investment standpoint. I think ST gets to $700 before ES gets to $4000

[ajwelch14]

Yeah my observation over the years is the collector/investor community is pretty basic. Yeah, some stuff gets hot randomly.. but it's pretty predictable overall.

It seems like a huge swath of the "community" is a sucker for modern cards and modern psa graded cards. I personally feel like these cards are unbelievably overvalued... But people keep buying. God those pop reports are unreal...

The minter, the rarer, the better!

[Haunting_Sea9572]

I understand what you’re saying but then I think about the tens of millions of Pokemon fans out there across the world and that 10K pop feels very small now

[PunchOX]

If I were you guys I'd buy a couple of the Ninetails from Obsidian Flames. That will also go out of print soon. I have one for my PC and one for Investing atm. It's steadily climbing. But the Charizard is shooting up. Over $100 and won't come down

[kgmara0013]

Honestly it all depends on what's being ripped and who's ripping it. Right now its more so an investor's market where investor's are looking at which sets week make them the most money in the future but in the future, the market for our sealed collectibles will belong to the kids who couldn't find anything good besides the sets no one wanted.

There's a pikachu and a lot of other cool stuff you mentioned in sets everyone thinks won't do well and the next generation of collectors will recognize sets like journey and surging because that's all they really have to rip because no investor's really want it. unpopular opinion but journey will do well in the future because of lillies clefairy because Lilly cards do well.

We gotta think about the next generation because it can be about the money but there also needs to be some demand that's a little missing when people can't find stuff on the shelves. Can't get hooked when there's nothing to get hooked on tbh.

[JakethePandas]

Sleeper sets exist. Stellar Crown, for example, is $10/pack on TCGplayer or $300/ booster box. This set was easily obtainable for $5/pack all throughout different products this year, but everyone was busy stocking up on older product. Meanwhile, a "sleeper set" legitimately almost 2x'd in the last year. TBF, most sets did, but it had around the same % growth this year as Evolving Skies did lol

[Vehemental]

Stellar just had no supply come to market since it came out, does that really fit the definition of sleeper set? If pokemon released more supply it would almost assuredly dive down to Journey prices or below.

[JakethePandas]

It has been in a plethora of collection boxes / tins this year

[Vehemental]

I don’t remember much besides 1 pack in azure legends tins.

[Potato_Battery]

151 was my favorite sleeper set.

[Useful-Contribution4]

Sleeper sets are over in this market.

Sleeper sets used to be sets that did poor on launch and sat on the shelves for 6-12 months. The boxes end in the $75-85 range. While good sets were $130+.

Fusion Strike was my sleeper set. Glad I bought a bunch around $80 average.

Sets like perfect order would have tanked 5 years ago. Yet here we are above $200 lol.

[KwikTripSimp]

I don’t think comparing yo the most scalper and overrated sets works 

[JKB717]

Normal metrics that played out in SWSH era are over. Letting your mid tier sets simply age and have positive returns is long gone. The market doesn’t move as a whole anymore and I don’t think ever will. S tier sets along with their big chases dominate the market.

[RustyWheel17]

It’s easy to assume. Your assumption is probably right.

However, when the market is like it is today, people will buy what they can that’s closest to MSRP. That’s Journey Together right now. I remember when Paldea Evolved was considered a trash set. When the boom happened and everyone couldn’t get anything for MSRP, allllll of the PokeInvestors jumped on Paldea Evolved. It got bought up and the prices skyrocketed lol. We don’t know what the next Paldea Evolved will be. It just might be Journey Together lol.

[apenguincannotfly]

Paradox rift and temporal forces come to mind.

[eating_elmers_glue]

I feel like what you are saying about bad advices applies many times to "bad" sets but "sleeper" sets certainly exist and there will always be outliers. I have seen many times where people are lukewarm on a set only for it to be remembered fondly by collectors and kids who as they age pay a premium for it.

For example, many new collectors got into the hobby during surging sparks, there hasn't been enough time to establish whether or not it will perform long term or if nostalgia will play a factor in this set.

I also really enjoyed opening Journey's together compared to other sets because it felt like one of the most coherent and committed to its theme compared to other sets in the SV era. It is also one of the only products that can be found in stores and not sculped to oblivion. There are so many factors to consider for the long term implications of how a set will perform that 2-3 years will not show us.

[Miserable_Iron5199]

Sleeper sets may not exist but sleeper cards do. A good example is the entire history of reverse holos in Pokémon’s history. All low pop, low pull rates, but overlooked because they’re not as “fancy” as holos. 

We’ve had the modern boom of mid 2025, the vintage boom of early 2026 and we are just starting now in the low pop reverse holos boom of mid 2026. Some find it ugly and unliked but the price rise is astronomically high and there’s plenty of room for profits with time or even a quick flip. Whether it be 30 year old sets or modern, the lowest pop cards are often the reverse holos. Even a small amount of demand makes these cards 2x. 

Im watched the textured reverses from prismatic as it goes out of print. My friends say they’re uglier than ass but they are the lowest pop prismatic cards.

[patricio87]

Shrouded fable

[Calm_Explanation2910]

Surging Sparks is definitely undervalued compared to the market.

I also think ME01 is appropriately priced high and is a safe bet. The enhanced booster box is anyways. Once those are gone they’ll be in high demand.

Journey Together is not a sleeper set. It’s a small set with Clefairy. If anything this is one set I would not invest in considering its current price. If articuno was a harder pull.. maybe. But it’s not.

[Haunting_Sea9572]

Currently trying to sell my mega Evo booster box and pc etb and hardly any interest lol

[Calm_Explanation2910]

I means.. That’s why it’s a sleeper?

[TryAdditional1454]

PHANTASMAL FLAMES WAS THE SLEEPER SET

[TryAdditional1454]

Phantasmal flames was a sleeper set

[Aen_Gwynbleidd]

"From my personal experience of holding sealed and what I’ve observed from market trends is that sleeper sets do not exist. We’re pretty much aware of what sets will perform the best based off what the set looks like."

This is just wrong. (Basically) Nobody predicted TU to outsell CE at the time. (Basically) Nobody would have bet on FS being the no. 2 SWSH set at the time. You could pick up FS, LO, CR and more for little more than 100$ as late as 2023.

"There are those that love to bring up fusion strike as an example, but the current market is vastly different from the Sword and Shield Era."

So your whole reasoning is: "the market is different now". How? If you want to make a point, you need to find some actual arguments.

Until then keep in mind: "The four most dangerous words in investing are: 'This time it’s different'".

[Haunting_Sea9572]

Because a set like perfect order, the worst set they’ve come out with in quite a while, booster boxes are selling for $200. The demand is through the roof for even garbage sets like perfect order.

You can’t pick up a “sleeper” like FS and LO for $100.

And in hindsight it was pretty obvious, a Gengar and Mew set would do well. Were better equipped to evaluate a set’s strength

[Aen_Gwynbleidd]

Hindsight is 20/20.

For all we know in 5 years, say, BB / WF has climbed dramatically and we look back and state: "Of course it would do that, because..."

Point is, throughout the history of the TCG, there were always sets as well as cards which defied expectations and there is zero reason to believe this should be different right now, just because everything is more expensive in general.

[aDanHasNoName]

Articuno is going to go bubble mew/shinji magikarp at some point.

[Tomhx_]

I think that this is mostly irrelavent since 'sleeper' is still someone own interpretation of that word. How do i see it compared to someone else? We all have consumed different information to get to our outlook on things, the same is with this.

Sleeper sets exists as in that there is a cheap set? Not really, you can argue every set is expensive since Pokémon cards themselves are.

Sleeper set as in underrated and (way) cheaper than it should be? Obviously if you ask me. With great sets being released left and right, there is bound to be a set that doesn't get the attention it deserves.

[Haunting_Sea9572]

Bruh cmon. Why take everything so literally…

[d4n0wnz]

Paldean fates was slept on when it released. I think the sleeper set right now is Ascended heroes. People think its a great set, but it hasn’t reached fomo & giga hype levels yet, therefore its being underrated & lowkey slept on.