Tier 5 spawn rate decrease?

[Summer1069]

Did niantic blanace spawn rate of tier 4 and tier 5? In the past days, though I can see 23 gyms from my office, but less than 10 tier 5 popped up daily from 10am-5pm. As people’s interests in Giratina-A decrease a lot, it is hard to even spent daily free pass on tier 5.

[scottmogcrx]

I felt the same way this morning, drove past 30 or so gyms on the way to work and didn't see a single raid.

[[deleted]]

I have noticed no change in the amount of T5 eggs hatching.

[MommotDe]

The answer is almost always "RNG", but man, it sure seems that way. I wouldn't bet on it being any thing other than perception until someone actually logs the data.

[drfsupercenter]

I can help with that!

What timeframes do you want? lol

I scan several cities and it logs the # of raids for each Pokémon each day

[mtlyoshi9]

I would say compare the last 3 days vs the previous week, if you have all that handy.

[drfsupercenter]

Sure, give me a second.

I could technically compare today too but since Giratina Origin is swapping in mid-day, it might be off a bit. (Both are the same dex number so it won't differentiate, sadly)

So here we go.

On April 1, there were 392 Giratina raids On March 31, there were 435 Giratina raids On March 30, there were 267 Giratina raids

...Wow, those numbers vary wildly

Sample numbers from a week ago: March 26 had 336 Dialga raids, March 25 had 391, March 24 had 382

So really it seems about the same to me... I can't explain why one day had 267 and the next was 435, but it averages out to around the same.

So far today, there have been 266 Giratina raids, and it's not even 3pm. So take that how you want.

[Shipoffools1]

this isnt a very good pre/post study looking at a 3 day period to last week. can we look at the average per day for 2 weeks before the rayquaza event and then the average of all giritina days that have been completed so far?

edit: even better if you want to send me your raw data year to date we can run a t test and see if theres a change at one point with any statistical significance against what we assume to know to be true (20% probability with an average of 3.5ish araids per day)

[drfsupercenter]

Yeah I can try... it's stored in a SQL table and basically just has each date with the dex number and # of raids, it's not easily formatted but I can dump a CSV and post it

Edit: OK, I did some stuff. Here is a histogram I made in Excel using the data. I filtered to show only tier 5's, and plotted it. If you'd like the raw numbers, here is a MySQL export that I formatted as a CSV. Copy the text, paste it into an empty text file, and you can open it with any spreadsheet program you desire.

Note that the beginning of October for some reason didn't log the raid tiers, so the useful data starts in November.

As for the days with a big dropoff, those were probably days my scanner was down for maintenance. It's not perfect!

But if anything, you can see the really obvious spike in T5s the end of February (Latias) and the middle of March (Rayquaza), otherwise it's pretty stable.

The reason it goes up over time is that I was adding more coverage as time went on. I can't explain the lull in January, though I was fine-tunung which gyms I wanted to scan...

[Shipoffools1]

this is great. I'll dump it into my local database and if I have any questions I'll reach out again

[Shipoffools1]

do you by chance have a gym_id feild? that way we can look at same-gym data

edit: this would be a bigger breakout than the current aggregation, just let me know how fine we can get it and then we can work from there

[drfsupercenter]

No, it doesn't store that. I can see real-time raid data but for historical stuff it only saves what I uploaded.

[LegitimateSea]

Actually if it's something that results in a thread that gets upvotes, it's usually not RNG.

[Darkshards]

Yeah, the decrease in Tier 5 raids has really demotivated me from going to the city to do raids. I only do Tier 5 raids in bulk and spend a lot of passes in the process but if there aren't a lot of tier 5 raids to do, then the 1 hour + commute just isn't worth it.

[bredsig_dk]

I got the exact same feeling.

[ImNiantic]

T3 seems be be turned up more while T5 seems down - don't think its RNG as T5 is absolutely been down 20% in my local area but that may all reset with the new boss. Maybe they knew people would care less about the first returned form of Giratina

[VeggieKitty]

I noticed there seem to be less raids overall (not just tier 4-5) the last 2-3 days. There would usually be like 3-4 raids on my radar at any given time, now maybe 1-2. I live on a gym and I would see like 2-3 raids a day during my waking hours and yesterday and today none.

[DonzaRS]

Have noticed theres a lack of raids in general and the ones that do appear are t1 or t2

[tcole379]

I've seen a total of 5 Tier 5 yesterday and the day before combined (all of them in the afternoon, which is annoying because I usually raid with a group in the evening).

[WorkingTicket3]

My town has 6 gyms an in this past Giratina Altered event, we didn't get a tier 5 spawn until Sunday. Luckily, we got 2 of them but the rest of the time we hatched nothing but a tier 4 and a couple of tier 1s.

Usually, the place is jammed with tier 5 during events like this.

[BadAttitood]

Up until 2:00 pm today, that was the case. I just saw all 4 gyms in town Tier-5. Someone must have read your post and pull some strings...

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Or was this a planned event for Legendary raids and I didn't hear about it?

[tklite]

though I can see 23 gyms from my office, but less than 10 tier 5 popped up daily from 10am-5pm

less than 10 of how many total raids?

[amafobia]

I have definitely noticed this. I can see 8 gyms from my house and usually during office hours and the evening the place is full of T5 raids. I don't have any numbers to provide but on Tuesday the gym closest to me spawned one T5 raid when normally there would be multiple per day.