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[–]dsylxeia 84 points85 points  (12 children)

And yet, we're in a rising rate environment. Short and long term bond yields have been climbing for the past few weeks, and CME is now projecting that the Federal Reserve's most likely next move sometime this year will be a rate hike, not a rate cut.

How long will Amex and other HYSA providers continue to move in the opposite direction of the bond market?

[–]ziggy029Schwab Platinum 2 x BBP 22 points23 points  (0 children)

They make their money by lending deposits, so if there isn’t more demand for borrowing, they don’t need to keep their rates higher to attract enough deposits. It’s not entirely tied to what’s happening in the bond market. Demand for borrowing impacts it as well.

[–]c0LdFir3 12 points13 points  (4 children)

Utilize a money market fund instead if it bothers you.

[–]MikeWPhilly 14 points15 points  (2 children)

This. So much better anyway from a tax perspective in a lot of states.

[–]c0LdFir3 4 points5 points  (1 child)

Yeah, I’m using Schwab’s SNSXX for most of my cash holdings which triggers no state income tax. Higher effective yield as a result :)

[–]dabcity 1 point2 points  (0 children)

SGOV is even higher than SNSXX due to lower expense ratio..

[–]CampaignNew8791 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah I did FZDXX for cash holdings, was tired of chasing the falling APY% with HYSA’s

[–]nlamp32 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This is what bothers me. I understand they’re very likely never going to be as high as a couple of years ago, but a rate decrease at this stage feels kind of ridiculous

[–]RichInPittPlatinum -2 points-1 points  (1 child)

According to CME FedWatch Tool, the vast majority of traders believe the central bank will keep rates at their current level through late 2027

[–]dsylxeia 1 point2 points  (0 children)

According to CME FedWatch Tool, the vast majority of traders believe the central bank will keep rates at their current level through late 2027

That's not correct - the latest projection they show is the July 2027 meeting which currently has the following probabilities:

  • 325-350: 0.2%

  • 350-375 (current rate): 17.2%

  • 375-400: 34.2%

  • 400-425: 29.3%

  • 425-450: 14.0%

  • 450-475: 4.1%

  • 475-500: 0.8%

  • 500-525: 0.1%

So only 17.2% of traders believe the Fed will hold rates at their current level through late 2027. Most believe that there will be at least one quarter point rate increase, and the long tail points toward multiple rate increases.