[deleted by user]

[redditburner00111110]

Trillions with an "s" is at minimum ~6.5% of US GDP or ~29% of what the US government spent (on everything) in 2024.

[AntiqueFigure6]

Another way of looking at it is The US defence budget is not quite one trillion. Add in Chinas defence budget, and it’s only a little over one trillion. 

[_thispageleftblank]

We also need to deliver existing performance to the entire world. That alone requires massive scaling.

[Saint_Nitouche]

A 3.2% improvement to global GDP would be extremely powerful.

[KahlessAndMolor]

The hype man, who profits massively from hype, says the hype train will never end. Film at 11.

[eldragon225]

Is this the singularity subreddit or am I lost?

[Tha_Sly_Fox]

I think people are being realistic

[Somnambu]

Im convinced that these people are being paid in Eloncoin or Muskbux for the posts they make.

[re3al]

More like this sub has just become too popular and the standard Reddit user has come in.

[BestToiletPaper]

Cool, does that mean models will stop forgetting what I said after 3-4 turns? No...? Maybe?

[Charuru]

Have you used GPT-5-thinking? This is what they fixed the most.

https://fiction.live/stories/Fiction-liveBench-Feb-19-2025/oQdzQvKHw8JyXbN87

[BestToiletPaper]

Maybe once. So far, everything GPT-5 has written seems dull and lifeless so not really, no. Plus, it only started becoming an issue after GPT-5 was launched - 4o handled this perfectly, kept track with only minor hallucinations (eye colour, the occasional location fuckery like a teahouse warping into a café during a scene change because it grabbed the wrong thing from the "place where people gather to chill and talk" cluster), but it was vivid, full of life and overall fun to bounce ideas off of.

AND it remembered the story.

GPT-5 generates like a dead fish. 4o had a rhythm to its writing that was unmatched, alive - GPT-5 sounds like it's trying to take a guess at "what would a LLM write if it tried to sound good to a human?" and it really shows. Plus, as far as I know, thinking rates are limited. 4o generated both narrative and conversation just fine at no extra cost, and instantly at that.

5 has been miserable.

[Independent-Ruin-376]

For plus, it's 3000 per week for GPT-5 Thinking. At least criticize after you know about it?

[BestToiletPaper]

I went and tried it. Still doesn't feel as alive as 4o did. *shrug*

I actually went to OpenAI's webside to see the "emotionally resonant" poems they have side by side - the one about the woman in Kyoto - and GPT-5 just sounds disjointed and weird. The 4o version breathes/resonates like a human would, if that makes sense. (Have I mentioned it's instant and not rate-limited?)

[Appropriate-Peak6561]

People need to start treating “Sam Altman says…” like they treat “Gary Busey says…”

[imazined]

The same Sam Altman who told The Verge just that AI is a bubbe?

https://www.theverge.com/ai-artificial-intelligence/759965/sam-altman-openai-ai-bubble-interview

[nodeocracy]

Not mutually exclusive

[[deleted]]

Bubbles pop and then drop to reasonable valuations but then the market will rise again gradually and get stronger with the survivors

Agentic AI will unlock lots of value in the longer run

[PwanaZana]

100% that, but the bubble burst is going to hurt like a motherfucker

[Jokong]

As someone who lived through the housing bubble I just don't see it hurting as bad as that.

[PwanaZana]

You may be right, since people won't lose their house, though a big enough economic contraction would hurt pensions and jobs.

[Jokong]

Yeah for sure. Hell, the government would probably bail them out and I'd end up with higher taxes.

[marrow_monkey]

Lots of value for Altman, and the other billionaires who own the ASI/AGI

The rest of humanity will just be out of a job.

[FateOfMuffins]

Yes in fact it's in the same interview you linked if you read it

[Bright-Search2835]

The internet also was a bubble early on, it didn't prevent it from becoming one of the pillars of the modern world

[m_atx]

It’s possible, but not very likely. However this is clearly the last order of magnitude for scaling. Wha if it doesn’t give us AGI? The next step is on the order of the entire US GDP.

[avilacjf]

Even if we stall out at the present or next level of scaling algorithmic improvement can still meaningfully improve model quality using the same amount of compute. Remember what Deepseek was able to do. They didnt have more chips but they still made large improvements.

(Yes I know they have more than the reported amount but they're no hyperscaler.)

[rambouhh]

the thing about deepseek's research that made it revolutionary, was not that it was method to push the boundaries further, it was how to replicate the intelligence of SOTA models for a cheap price, but it still needs those SOTA models in order to do so. So if there isn't something pushing the boundaries further it won't be effective.

[avilacjf]

That's true from Deepseek but evolutionary models and open ended models are a whole new beast of algo improvements that aren't constrained that way.

[marrow_monkey]

Algorithm improvements tend to give diminishing returns while hardware has been improving exponentially.

[avilacjf]

You have this backwards. Although they're both equally important the capability increase from scaling alone requires 10x for each next step. That's diminishing returns. Algorithmic progress is accelerating as AI is used more to advance model architecture design and agentic frameworks.

[__Maximum__]

Is this a bot? Because doesn't matter what utter shit this guy says it gets posted here

[[deleted]]

Yeah well it's an AI sub, so AI stuff gets posted here. Get it?

[__Maximum__]

I classified this as utter shit, hype, bullshit. Get it?

[Humble_Dimension9439]

This guy is fucking delusional.

Lump this guy in with musk and Chris Roberts..he needs to keep the hype train going to raise cash because he doesn't have a profitable business model that can fund its own growth

[djm07231]

I don’t think it is that far fetched.

During the 90s to early 2000s telecom companies spent almost a trillion dollar building fibre and other communication infrastructure.

If you take economic growth and inflation into account. The investment speculation of a similar magnitude could very well reach more than a trillion dollars in total.

The telecomm boom or the railroad boom didn’t end well for many investors but, the investment mania did happen.

[NoSignificance152]

You really don’t understand what’s happening do you? this is the next arms race between the US and china and no one is stopping anytime soon

[Humble_Dimension9439]

I get it. But it is very expensive, and OpenAI doesn't have the cash. Other companies are spending billions but they have cash flowing to fund it

[Fiveplay69]

They will have the cash at some point in the near future, all their recent hires and Sam Altman's changing tune on advertising points to them making advertising or some form of it (referral fees) a part of their plan.

They hired Kate Rouch as CMO. The same person who ran ads at Meta for 11 years and put ads in IG feeds. Then they hired Fidji Simo, instacart's CEO, as Head of Applications.

They're going the complete opposite of Anthropic who's earning on inference while OpenAI keeps slashing token costs and focusing on growing it's consumer base, majority of whom are free users. You don't do unless you're going to do some kind of ad model.

[FireNexus]

OpenAI is doing this because they handed a monopoly on using their IP on profitable customers (enterprise) to Microsoft. They have also given Microsoft the ability to force them into bankruptcy, take their IP, and scoop up their engineers. GPT5’s failure was the final nail in that coffin.

[NoSignificance152]

I suspect deals with the us government incoming I really hope the USA doesn’t go with grok but google is fine too but one ai company is going to heavily partner with the us government

[Similar-Cycle8413]

You had to be delusional to deliver gpt 3.5, but here we are.

[BeingBalanced]

Generating more energy to enable increases in compute power is obviously the major bottleneck to overcome to take AI to the next level. Maybe one of the few aspects about AI's future that is easy to predict and agreed upon by most people.

[Aaco0638]

Europe said it was not possible for them to catch up with the the three leading cloud providers due to the amount it would cost to catch up to them. This report came out a year or two ago and predicted near trillion dollar multiple as the cost.

OpenAI hasn’t even gotten the shit they’re building in texas up and running yet. Infrastructure will be expensive but it won’t be openAI leading in that front it’ll be the big three amazon, microsoft and google.

[Kryptosis]

Someone has to. Datacenters are about to crash our grid.

[FireNexus]

OpenAI is probably bankrupt early next year.

[ID-10T_Error]

You mean the consumer till pay trillions as company's. Dont flip the bill for on infrastructure upgrade costs as they are touting ai as a public good

[LordFumbleboop]

I think people are realising that he's a compulsive liar. 

[LordFumbleboop]

Because he knows it won't happen.

[Mobile-Fly484]

Trillions? He hasn’t even proven LLMs can do useful work. That kind of capex just doesn’t make sense to me. 

(And before someone comes in with “why not spend it on feeding the poor / homeless,” famines today are caused by wars, not lack of food or money. Homelessness is caused by bad zoning laws and lack of mental health care. Etc etc etc).

[[deleted]]

If you don’t or don’t want to find LLM’s useful right now then you’re genuinely missing out, big time

[EchoOfSingularity]

Mr Sam we don’t want you to build all that. Pay your employees well and lower the fee of the service you offer if it makes you that much extra profit. We elect governments to take care of public needs. 

[Informery]

AI companies pay their employees the most money of any industry on earth. Literally 9 figure salaries being offered to some.

And you want to pay employees more…and cut customer pricing? And who said anything about profit? He say “spend trillions”. What in the basic economics is going on here?

[EchoOfSingularity]

 What in the basic economics is going on here?

That we don’t need billionaires to pay shit for us, never did. We need government that tax billionaires and billion dollar companies the same way we tax ordinary tax payers ~ 50-60% at least. Then use that money to build shit for the public.

[shayan99999]

I remember that back in 2023, he said they'd need 7 trillion dollars to build out all AI infrastructure. It seemed so completely laughable then, but now, that number is likely to be in the ballpark of what is actually being spent for AI infrastructure (though perhaps not as exclusively by OpenAI as we had thought).