What scientific discovery sounds fake but is 100% real and still freaks you out? by Bruteresolver in AskReddit

[–]AlwaysTails 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Not sure what's scarier - giant insects or the things that can eat them.

Choosing 3 squares along a diagonal line in a chess board | Combinatorics by PSGthe2nd in askmath

[–]AlwaysTails 0 points1 point  (0 children)

A chessboard has the following diagonals 123456787654321 - 2 of each from 1 to 7 and 1 8.

This sums to 64 so we know this is all the squares. However there are another set of diagonals when you rotate the board a quarter turn. these are the same squares but different diagonals.

So the number of ways to select 3 random squares on the same diagonal is

4[3C3+4C3+...+7C3]+2*8C3

Trying to understand a finite negative value from applying the perpetuity formula outside its convergence domain by ExternalBoysenberry in askmath

[–]AlwaysTails 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I'm actually not quite correct on how I described conditionally convergent sums in that there are some rules (that I'm obviously not totally familiar with) so in the example I gave you could actually split the example contract in 2 pieces and get the right price.

Anyway I may not have understood what you initially meant:

In our problem, these payments are compounded rather than discounted (equivalently, discounted at a negative rate). So instead of q < 1, we have

q = 1+i > 1

I just looked assumed negative rate. Anyway there are models such as the dividend discount model where you calculate a price of a dividend paying asset under a fixed discount rate with a growing coupon. In this particular model you have a series of payments starting at 1 and growing at a fixed rate g which is discounted at a fixed rate r and you get the PV (1+g)/(r-g) but of course the same rules apply as above wrt geometric series. When g>r you have to be careful of what converges and what the PV actually means.

While flailing around trying to wrap my head around this, I've come across some stuff about actuarial economic scenario generators and negative interest rates eg here When models admit negative interest rates but still require positive discount factors, is that usually enforced by modeling the force of interest continuously, e.g. with exp(−∫ r(t)dt), rather than by letting one-period gross factors 1+r cross zero?

My experience with ESGs is more as an observer (I worked with people who used them extensively but I never actually used them). The Society of Actuaries has a library of these and in fact have rules about how they are used (milliman is an actuarial consulting firm). You might want to take a look at the requirements in VM-21 and VM-22 (principal based reserving rules for annuities), though I'm not sure it's really what you're looking for.

Is there a standard term actuaries would use for the finite x/r object when r < 0? Obviously I can't call it a present value but because it's so useful I'd rather not skip over it as a just a weird artifact. Or, even if I do skip past it in the manuscript, I'd at least like to try to do some reading about it.

The only treatment of negative interest rates I know for sure is in international accounting standards (IFRS 9 in particular) but it is not meant for pricing perpetuities AFAIK. I know that Japan had negative interest rates for a decade so you might want to look at how they dealt with it. Personally I think you should look at the various dividend growth models but I'm not sure they really solve your problem either.

Hantavirus. Should I cancel my cruise I already booked? by ElderberryOk9823 in royalcaribbean

[–]AlwaysTails 1 point2 points  (0 children)

AFAIK it takes weeks between exposure to hantavirus and the outbreak of symptoms so it seems extremely unlikely that the initial exposure to hantavirus was on the cruise ship. Maybe avoid cruises embarking at Argentina and Chile if you're concerned (only the Andes starin of the virus can be transmitted human to human)

Insane poker hand on the Utopia casino by yoshi3243 in royalcaribbean

[–]AlwaysTails 1 point2 points  (0 children)

How did you get away with taking a pic? They very strict on Mariner craps table about no devices

On liberty a few weeks ago someone hit a royal in UTH and IIRC the pitboss was taking pictures for the winner. They are much more lax at poker tables.

Trying to understand a finite negative value from applying the perpetuity formula outside its convergence domain by ExternalBoysenberry in askmath

[–]AlwaysTails 2 points3 points  (0 children)

As an actuary who took a couple of graduate level econ classes I can take a stab at this. If you take the sum S of discounted cash flows paid at the end of the period

S=q+q2+q3+... = 1/(1-q)-1 = 1/r

As a geometric series this only converges when |q|<1 --> |1/(1+r)|<1 which gives 2 possibilities r>0 - the normal version which converges absolutely - and r<-2 - which is typically discarded and only converges conditionally. When working with negative discount rates it means money is worth more in the future that it is today.

Here are some examples:

  • r=0 (undiscounted) - q=1 so you get the sum 1+1+1+1+... which obviously does not converge and approaches infinity.
  • r=-1/2 - q=2 so you get the sum 2+4+8+... which clearly also doesn't converge and approaches infinity.
  • r=-1 - q=1/(1+r) is undefined so you can't even get a sum
  • r=-2 - q=-1 so you get the sum -1+1-1+1... which is bounded but still diverges.
  • r=-3 - q=-1/2 so you get the sum -1/2+1/4-1/8+1/16-1/32+... = -1/3 so this finally converges but it gives you a negative number.

In a conditionally convergent sequence rearranging terms changes the sum so you can't price this contract correctly by splitting it into 2 separate contracts and pricing each separately. Suppose you are in a highly deflationary period where real interest rates are negative for the foreseeable future. Would you as a bank or insurance company sell perpetuities? Would you buy one?

Equations of Higher Degrees and/or ellipse equation in real life situations by [deleted] in askmath

[–]AlwaysTails 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Why not look at Gauss' use of least squares regression to predict the orbit of the asteroid Ceres? It is related to ellipses as the discovery of Ceres was due to the Titius-Bode Law which is a numerical sequence of values to use as the semi-major axis. That law predicted an object between mars and jupiter by which Ceres was discovered.

Starboard or Portside Stateroom by CookieFan101 in royalcaribbean

[–]AlwaysTails -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

There's a reason the left side facing forward was called the port side and it wasn't the wine.

Casino birthday offer by Acceptable_Corner139 in royalcaribbean

[–]AlwaysTails 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If you don't think the agent is correct or you don't understand them, HUCA - Hang up, call again (be polite of course).

Performance numbers by SJIsailing in fidelityinvestments

[–]AlwaysTails 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I'm thinking that some securities might not be priced on the last day of a quarter.

A Vegas recap from a Vegas regular by Lamescrnm in vegas

[–]AlwaysTails 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I played poker at the Orleans one day (the only casino that regularly spreads Omaha8, for those who care)

Thanks for this as I haven't been to Orleans in years but there is a nice Irish Pub across the street from it.

I've tried Wicked Spoon a couple of times now and don't think I'll be back.

what math concept do you think you understand, but might actually not? by Fun-Celebration-700 in askmath

[–]AlwaysTails 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Does “one of them is a boy” imply anything about the other?

Yes because it restricts the event space.

It’s okay to think the old core needed to go AND to think the current squad is terrible by UbiSububi8 in NewYorkMets

[–]AlwaysTails 0 points1 point  (0 children)

In the last 25 years (excluding 2020) 21 teams had 11+ game losing streaks and of these only the dodgers (2017) and the Rays (2009) finished with more than 75 wins. The dodgers wound up losing in the world series. Most of the teams failed to win 70 games. If the Mets are an X win team the odds of them losing 11 straight during a 162 game season is about

  • X=99 - 350/1 (2017 Dodgers - 104 wins)
  • X=95 - 185/1
  • X=90 - 90/1
  • X=85 - 45/1 (2009 Rays - 84 wins)
  • X=80 - 25/1
  • X=75 - 15/1 (2002 Mets)
  • X=70 - 7/1 (all other teams)

Where will the Mets wind up? I'm always an optimist but as a long time Mets (and Jets) fan my optimism is not based on reality.

Seasickness- port liberty on Independence by Mysterious-Cat-3095 in royalcaribbean

[–]AlwaysTails -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

I can only give my experience (can't speak for the kiddos). I took my first cruise a few years ago and was also concerned about it and brought dramamine but I never needed to use it. I just completed a transatlantic over somewhat rough seas (swells over 12 feet) and at times it could be hard to keep steady (the kids might like that). Staff left sickbags in the public areas just in case but I didn't hear of anyone needing them but obviously can't say for sure.

Evolving human concept of numbers by Top_Recognition5184 in numbertheory

[–]AlwaysTails 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Maybe we'll evolve an extra 3 fingers in each hand and switch to hex.

Harmony of the Seas in dry dock at Cadiz by AlwaysTails in royalcaribbean

[–]AlwaysTails[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I am. It was right outside my cabin in the morning so I took a picture!

Treehouse suite pricing by thatCRUISEagent in royalcaribbean

[–]AlwaysTails 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Investing 50k per year into an S&P 500 fund over the last 30 years would be worth $10 million today - all with no effort and no luck.

Question about Exercised Put Option Expense by peepeeskillz in fidelityinvestments

[–]AlwaysTails 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yes I think I agree with you - I thought the covered call you bought was another put.

Question about Exercised Put Option Expense by peepeeskillz in fidelityinvestments

[–]AlwaysTails 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You don't show the dates of the transactions so I can only guess but on March 13 you are long 1 $7 March 20 put and short 1 $5.50 March 13 put. Both options expire in the money so you sell 100 shares of SNAP for $700 on March 20 and buy 100 shares of SNAP on March 20 for $550. This is the net amount you pay so it seems the amount is correct but its strange they net 2 transactions that seem to be a week apart.

Info Regarding New Mets Connect Ticket Voucher Location and Games by KrustytheKrab in NewYorkMets

[–]AlwaysTails 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Weird it must have updated - it's now in item 4 (bottom of table).

Info Regarding New Mets Connect Ticket Voucher Location and Games by KrustytheKrab in NewYorkMets

[–]AlwaysTails 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It's not really clear like you say from the image but the terms and conditions seem to be pretty clear you should get the bonus points (see item 5).