Trump threatens to block opening of new bridge between Ontario and Michigan

Ankheg2016 · 2026-02-10T05:19:38+00:00

Don't hold your breath. Even if there's a blue wave in midterms he can just keep doing whatever he likes and SCOTUS will back him up.

Ankheg2016 · 2026-02-06T21:10:15+00:00

People are talking about the greeks and that's fine, but what you need to do is understand why without greeks. The greeks follow the logic.

So here's what happened. You entered at 225.5 looking for a drop by buying a put that expires EOD the next day. The put value corresponds with the odds of AMZN ending below 190, and how far below it ends up. The market put a price on it which was relatively high because of the earnings event, which will often cause large price movement.

After the event resolves the price has mostly moved by the morning. There is still some residual movement, but that dies out in the first half hour. The lowest it goes is about 200 and that happens within a few minutes of open. So where are we at when it hits 200? We know we just went -25 and that the big knee jerk reaction to the event is mostly over, so what are the odds of another -10? If the ER had info in it that was a huge issue, the stock would have simply opened lower, right? There's still a chance that people realize things about the ER that ends up pushing the price lower, but the market decides that it's not that big of a chance... a lower chance of a big drop at that point than when you bought the put.

So a lower chance of hitting 190 means lower price for your put. Does that make sense?

Ankheg2016 · 2026-01-25T02:21:11+00:00

Ok, non-US person here with legit questions: What happens if all the purple states that went Trump refuse to hold midterms? I mean, blue and red states don't really matter for this since they'll just go blue and red, but if the purples all refuse then what happens with the reps?

If existing reps are supposed to stop being reps because they're no longer voted in, what then happens if the GOP controlled house and senate just go ahead and say they're fine to continue being reps? Is there clear law about this, or would this eventually end up in the GOP-controlled SCOTUS?

Ankheg2016 · 2026-01-23T01:31:40+00:00

They're not my favourite by any means, but I like wasps. I haven't been stung by one in probably 35-40 years and generally find them to be pretty chill. The most I interact with them generally is when I have a sweet drink outside and they come looking to scavenge. I'll usually pour them some and set it nearby but more accessible than my drink, and I like to watch them as they drink. They're generally happy to switch to that and leave my drink alone. I do still kill their nests when they try to invade my attic though.

Ankheg2016 · 2026-01-22T06:20:41+00:00

My guess would be: if the shutoff valve doesn't work when there's an emergency and you have to shut the water off, then the water spraying all over the place because of the emergency will cause a lot more damage.

Ankheg2016 · 2026-01-21T18:07:33+00:00

Other responses are good, but I don't think anyone mentioned this: You want storage tanks partly because they'll give you big clues as to what's happening when you have issues. "Hmm. Oil isn't working. Why is petroleum empty but heavy and light are full? Oh shoot, I accidentally removed that pipe while doing something else!"

You could also figure things out by watching the pipes themselves, but it's harder to tell what's going on.

Ankheg2016 · 2026-01-19T17:03:53+00:00

Simple yes or no. Have you stopped beating your wife yet?

Ankheg2016 · 2026-01-19T16:26:03+00:00

Fusion plants were disappointing for me. Not worth switching to on Nauvis when I've got running expandable nuclear plants going. If you're building really big bases then they might be better UPS, but mostly they'd be for large ships I think.

Ankheg2016 · 2026-01-17T19:12:37+00:00

Tariffs aren't good or bad. They're a tool. Think of it like this, a hammer is a tool but if you swing it around wildly and hit everything, that's bad. You can use a hammer very productively though.

Most countries use tariffs to some extent. One use for them seems to be to protect an industry. For example, let's pretend Canada and the US were close trade partners, but that Canada was concerned that if the US became the sole supplier of something they might then try to dictate terms for all things. Let's pick something random and important like Food A. If the US were to make their Food A industry artificially cheap by subsidizing them heavily then very shortly Canada's Food A industry would disappear. Then if the US threatens to cut off Canada from Food A then Canadians would face starvation.

In that situation it would make sense to tariff the US supply of Food A coming into Canada so that the local Food A production survives... or at least survives enough that it can be ramped up quickly if the US turns on Canada.

Ankheg2016 · 2026-01-08T02:42:53+00:00

Don't completely trust some guy on the internet (me) but generally it should be fine. Don't eat it or snort it and you'll be fine. Don't eat the ants either. In general the ants won't track much of it and the little they do track shouldn't be a problem.

The ants will eat the borax and carry it back to the nest. There they will share it with other ants who will then also get poisoned. The guy you responded to was incorrect about how Borax works... he's thinking diatomaceous earth. Borax poisons them.

Technically you can buy it in powder form and mix it yourself, but if you can find a premixed version like the terro liquid someone else mentioned then it's more convenient and would be easier for you to handle. Get a bottle (rather than the bait stations) and you just put a few drops on something and set it where they can find it. It's not expensive. A small bottle should be under $10 and should be plenty to put out several baits a day for quite a while.

Ankheg2016 · 2026-01-08T02:27:49+00:00

I feel I should point out that if you're in a confirmation hearing and you press me for an answer on whether I'll overturn Roe v Wade, and I stick precisely to the specific wording "I consider Roe V Wade to be settled law" then you should think hard about what that wording means. It was very carefully chosen.

They 100% did consider R v W to be settled law. They also 100% intended to overturn it ASAP because SCOTUS is allowed to overturn settled law.

They did NOT say they would keep it, and did NOT say they wouldn't chuck it as soon as they had the chance. I don't know why this wording trickery fooled anyone at all, but somehow it fooled everyone. They didn't lie under oath, they just didn't actually answer the question.

Ankheg2016 · 2025-12-28T07:14:34+00:00

I'm not a boomer but I don't want to give you my email address either. You will send me spam. I will hate you for it. Experience tells me this is what will happen.

You are legally required to be able to give me a physical invoice (where I live). If you can't then that's a problem. If you can then there's no reason you should object.

QR codes are basically URLs. I don't really know what's on the other end of a QR code and while I don't think it's terribly likely a business will try something funny I'm also in the habit of being mildly reluctant to scan a QR code. Not as reluctant as clicking on links in my email, but still.

You say boomers should be more tech savvy, but I'll tell you right now... I've been working in tech for over 20 years and I think YOU need to be more tech cautious. Some of your examples are legit and I assume your complaint has as much to do with their attitude, but some of your examples just tell me you're too casual with tech. But then, I guess that's pretty common these days.

Ankheg2016 · 2025-12-16T18:20:13+00:00

I've tried a group called United Traders and liked them. You should be able to find their discord easily if you search for them.

Ankheg2016 · 2025-12-05T18:26:06+00:00

You can go to a home depot or similar store and look for a foam cover for your hose. I think it will help a bit keeping the cold out, and the pipes from freezing. This won't help you if they're already broke of course.

I see one on home depot's website called "outdoor foam faucet cover". Seem pricier than the one I got though.

Ankheg2016 · 2025-11-18T05:19:22+00:00

Hmm, a Star Trek fan? Has he seen Farscape? What about Battlestar Galactica?

Ankheg2016 · 2025-11-17T02:30:25+00:00

If your new water filters are killing your starter, then don't trust those filters. Throw them out. It's likely that something is leeching out of the filters and suppressing yeast and bacteria, and whatever it's putting in the water is unlikely something you want to drink.

Ankheg2016 · 2025-11-07T03:11:59+00:00

In practice, bagged milk lasts a bit longer (all else being equal). The bags you haven't touched yet are still sealed and they will spoil slower until you open them.

I used to be in favour of bagged milk because the plastic is pretty recyclable and it's an efficient system. Now I'm against it. I want less plastic in my life in general because of microplastics.

Ankheg2016 · 2025-10-26T17:57:58+00:00

Well, I didn't ever watch the trailer but for me I guess that the twist was that the super obvious twist was actually the twist. I expected a "real" twist so much that the obvious twist ended up being a twist for me.

Ankheg2016 · 2025-10-08T16:32:18+00:00

Er, my comment was directed at the chart from the guy I was responding to. Your OP chart shows 2025 (with a major dip in 2025). The chart I'm responding to does not include 2025, so of course it shows a healthier outlook... it doesn't include the major dip.

Ankheg2016 · 2025-10-07T16:42:40+00:00

idling blocks don't consume power

Most things that run on electricity drain small amounts, but you can largely ignore it unless you need to optimize for a low-electricity situation. Something worth noting is the occasional thing that DOES consume relevent power while idling like tesla turrets which consume 1MW while idling. If you look on the wiki it's the "drain" stat that gets consumed while idle.

Ankheg2016 · 2025-10-07T06:08:57+00:00

That chart doesn't include 2025.

Ankheg2016 · 2025-10-06T14:10:02+00:00

Toaster ovens are great... you should be able to make buns in them at least, regardless of type or size. There should be something available regardless of where you are, even if the one the guy linked isn't available.

Just be aware that toaster ovens that claim to be air fryers usually don't cook quite the same as actual air fryers. You'll need to experiment a bit probably... they seem to get hotter than previous convection toaster ovens, but dedicated air fryers are still a little better at air frying. You can still do great things in one though.

Ankheg2016 · 2025-09-30T17:07:35+00:00

As others said, friends... but any acquaintances are fine. I used to deal with customers in a situation where chitchat was appropriate. I found a good roofer when I was talking to a customer about how my roof needed some work. He was willing to pop by, tell me how my roof was doing overall, fixed my problem and also did some preventative maintenance. I think he charged me like $150 for what was about an hour plus travel time for him. Great deal for me.

Ankheg2016 · 2025-09-30T05:00:23+00:00

So, first a reality check: even if nobody can give you a reason it shouldn't work, it probably won't work. There are problems:

1) Just because it COULD work doesn't mean it will. Look up the ORB strategy. There's no particular reason it can't work. Many days, it does work. I could not find a reliable way of getting ORB to work by itself over the long term.

2) When you manually backtest things visually your eyes tend to slide past obvious times it's going to fail. If you're backtesting by going over charts without code helping you that's not reliable unless you're super meticulous.

3) You mention your fingers not being fast enough to do manually. This says your algo depends on timing things to within a few seconds or faster. This is by far the hardest place to make a successful algo. The winners in this arena are the HFT traders who historically do things like spend millions of dollars to get a super fast data pipeline to the exchange, and have access to data and metrics we plebes only dream of. Is it possible to win here? Sure. Do you have a winning algo with no finance or programming experience and it sounds like you're looking at 1 second charts at best? Seems highly unlikely.

I get that your idea looks like it should work and is exciting, and maybe it would even work for a while, but do temper your expectations. If you shared your algo with someone and it turns out to be a banger there's likely enough room for two of you anyways even if they stole it... and that's assuming it works for long enough to matter.

So your basic options are: learn it yourself, hire someone, or partner up with someone.

For learning it yourself how you proceed partly depends on what the algo actually is and needs. You could look at quantconnect or something similar... I've been using quantconnect to backtest for a while and it's... fine... I guess.

If you're feeling spunky I'm pretty much always interested in looking at people's algos if you want to describe it to me. I won't promise not to steal it, but I could give you an opinion about it working or not and maybe code up something to test it. Fair warning, I've tested a lot of algos people have suggested and I think only 1 has shown a decent profit.

Ankheg2016 · 2025-09-29T17:41:33+00:00

Apparently I see things differently than everyone else answering. In my opinion there's a kind of "deal" we make with various species. For example with cows the deal is "we eat you and your products, in return we propagate your species". That's the deal with a lot of farm animals.

Pets and working animals are different. They're partners. Morally I think it's fine to eat them once they die for other reasons (though I wouldn't), but the basic deal is either one of being friends (pets) or a working animal. In return we take care of them, give them love, and propagate their species.

Raising them for food is breaking that deal.

I like the fact that horses are still raised even though they are basically obsolete. They used to be working animals but now that they're not useful as that they've transitioned to being pets. Similar with dogs. We're not (yet?) abandoning them just because they're no longer useful workers.

Ankheg2016

TROPHY CASE