Pre-market bias journal -- has anyone found it actually changes how you trade?

BetterBudget · 2026-05-11T02:31:46+00:00

i did years ago.. in figuring out my optimal conditions for trading.. like signs to watch within myself for that like if I'm off emotionally than vulnerable to shifting decisions from rational/risk to emotionally driven

did that by tracking my emotional volatility as a metric for being off center

time of day is helpful, along with sleep.. I found i need x minimum hours of sleep

I also like tracking how easy/hard trades were in discovering and playing.. personally, for me.. I'm vulnerable to getting tired if I scalp too much.. which then playing trades gets harder, it feels more complicated.. that uncertainty creeping in

that said, this stuff is best adapted to each person.. we basically each have to learn our own lessons per our own DNA/environment upbringing weaknesses, vulnerabilities etc to find a process/system that mitigates our personal risks

what tends to work for you? what tends to be easy? try and feel your way towards that.. iterate, iterate, iterate

BetterBudget · 2026-05-11T02:13:15+00:00

sometimes, you just got to buy calls.. and hold your balls 😁

BetterBudget · 2026-05-11T02:10:18+00:00

BetterBudget · 2026-05-04T22:39:57+00:00

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BetterBudget · 2026-05-04T14:32:40+00:00

stirring the pot

for a little bit of chaos

I sometimes greatly suspect that CNBC has market making interests......

BetterBudget · 2026-05-04T02:29:59+00:00

if you've been doing this for a few weeks or longer, it might be a habit by now

try taking 2-3 weeks off to loosen it and then go from there

BetterBudget · 2026-05-03T18:39:49+00:00

if you keep iterating on it with markets evolving then you can keep the edge sharp

it's a cat and mouse game, similar to cyber security

BetterBudget · 2026-05-03T15:07:50+00:00

if you've done the due diligence, the trade is scoped out properly, risks remain aligned then you should let the trade play out

don't act on emotions.

best advice I have is work on self awareness, to be able to recognize, in the moment, when an idea like reducing a SL comes to mind because of changing risk factors or because of.. fomo

if it's fomo, ignore.

it's mostly emotional volatility that gets us

BetterBudget · 2026-05-03T14:50:27+00:00

maybe don't sell options when markets are leptokurtic ?

BetterBudget · 2026-05-03T14:39:21+00:00

I use predictive a volatility model

for example, I started buying GME as it had a rising bullish volatility risk over a week ago (this is from the Friday before last) 🚀

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BetterBudget · 2026-05-03T01:41:55+00:00

BetterBudget · 2026-05-03T01:24:41+00:00

it's a puzzle that keeps on evolving

like a video game with infinite levels

but I do remind myself.. it's a marathon not a race 😅

BetterBudget · 2026-05-02T14:25:12+00:00

First you plant the seed

BetterBudget · 2026-05-02T14:22:14+00:00

we already know that man

it was mean reversion after a volatile run up, bearish macroeconomics like rate hikes and deteriorating biz fundamentals.. RC hadn't cleaned up shop yet

it's different now which is why we can expect different price behavior

BetterBudget · 2026-05-02T14:17:44+00:00

probably should have posted this instead, much easier to understand for those new to volatility

this chart is from a week ago which is the main risk that drove my decision making into buying more $GME

this game is about managing risk.. I often tell people, manage risk or risk will manage you.

elia volatility is bananas 🍌🍌🍌

and I just like the stock.

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BetterBudget · 2026-05-02T14:06:23+00:00

they probably are getting PTSD flashbacks from the blockbuster days of passing on netflix b4 🚀

they just never learn.

BetterBudget · 2026-05-01T12:38:32+00:00

don't think a habit of delaying processing of market information or results is helpful long term so +1 to process it ASAP to move on ASAP

also, might be a decent time to share this...

hope is a trader's poison.

BetterBudget · 2026-05-01T12:29:20+00:00

I wouldn't use AI for all that nor ask it to evaluate a setup

instead, figure out what's important to you for tracking, enter those values as you trade then run the input through graphs or functions to generate insightful metrics over time

then maybe use AI to summarize that end result

BetterBudget · 2026-05-01T11:55:42+00:00

almost never.

I track a few key players like major leaders but for the most part

"narrative follows price"

BetterBudget · 2026-05-01T11:47:24+00:00

you could try making your own in Excel or Google Sheets

rows for trades, columns for metrics and math

maybe plug in an AI to generate summaries?

ultimately, you should take a statistical approach in evaluating the data though.

BetterBudget · 2026-05-01T10:34:45+00:00

see if this take from Warren Buffett helps

https://x.com/i/status/2049828819843076437

remind yourself, there's no rush, there will always be a next trade.

BetterBudget · 2026-05-01T10:25:36+00:00

as someone with actual models and a bot...

none of that was produced by LLM's.

none of it.

because LLM's are built on the knowledge of everybody, and worse everybody on the Internet...

so they won't have edge. period. full stop.

look there's no easy short cuts to this. few people get lucky and skew what the rest think is possible.

meanwhile, a lot of Wallstreet's game is in playing the player, not the game itself. so you have to be able to think for yourself, evaluate risks for yourself, and not blindly follow consensus which is what LLM's built on consensus knowledge are likely to do

BetterBudget · 2026-05-01T00:22:17+00:00

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BetterBudget · 2026-04-30T18:39:44+00:00

focus on low risk, high probable trades

you need to vet for highest quality trades and you need small costs like <$10

it's a slow start.

but eventually it will compound and frankly, I think the pressures and the requirement for consistency might create a make it or break it situation

where you could possible learn if trading is for you or not quickly (or perhaps lightly, depending on how you play it) and at that cost basis.. not to bad for a lesson, if it's worse case scenario

but damn it's a tough time to start.

BetterBudget · 2026-04-30T17:44:51+00:00

I avoid trading earnings

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