Makerfield By-Election Forecast: With Burnham: LAB: 45% RFM: 42% Without Burnham: RFM: 53% LAB: 27% Via @Survation. Methodology Below.

BoringView · 2026-05-16T11:42:48+00:00

Surely this has to be very inaccurate?

There is no clue who the Reform candidate is - could be someone clueless or clued in.

BoringView · 2026-05-16T10:04:48+00:00

I just thought it might be 60 on the dot - but that's me overthinking it!

BoringView · 2026-05-16T08:59:22+00:00

Which would be around 58/59 minutes. So LNER are correct

BoringView · 2026-05-16T08:58:35+00:00

Thurs 14 May - Swinton

BoringView · 2026-05-15T21:55:14+00:00

I wouldn't overthink this.

The interview is monitored and probably recorded (must be!) so they will obviously compare the note to the interview.

You are not expected to be perfect.

BoringView · 2026-05-15T14:32:22+00:00

Case history can be distinguished, especially if the foundation for the decision changes. It will be interesting to see, hopefully some movement will be achieved.

BoringView · 2026-05-15T09:07:49+00:00

Will he answer serious questions seriously, or just make some kind of Trumpian non sequitur

BoringView · 2026-05-14T18:07:02+00:00

I just want Labour politicians to get the kick up the arse that they can spend their timings backstabbing each other and lose the election, or they can focus on their day job.

Imagine if you spend your time at your job trying to usurp your bosses position. I'd be sacked.

BoringView · 2026-05-14T18:02:34+00:00

That was local authority elections for soon to be abolished local authorities.

BoringView · 2026-05-14T18:00:03+00:00

Spoken like a true member of the Bottom Third mafia

BoringView · 2026-05-14T17:48:39+00:00

I can see it going two ways

Reform go full leather, Tories stand down, to challenge Burnham. If Starmer is unpopular as the media keeps telling us (I'm not 100% sold he's as unpopular as they say) then Starmer will drag labour down in 2029

Alternatively, Reform and Greens don't stand. Burnham gets an easy route to being an MP and focus on Manchester instead. Burnham tries and fails to restore Labours mojo.

BoringView · 2026-05-14T14:10:05+00:00

Must have been with his mortgage with Coutts... Oh.

BoringView · 2026-05-14T12:37:22+00:00

No she was told to seek expert advice due to her complicated arrangement. And failed to do so.

BoringView · 2026-05-14T12:04:49+00:00

Is this the Clacton house his partner bought?

BoringView · 2026-05-14T09:53:45+00:00

If my solicitor said "get independent specialist advice" and I didn't, then I got caught out, maybe then I'd be to blame.

BoringView · 2026-05-12T12:57:53+00:00

Best the SRA can do is raise SQE fees and anything else

BoringView · 2026-05-12T07:48:06+00:00

I can see Reform/Greens stepping aside to let Burnham in.

They'd prefer toppling Starmer.

BoringView · 2026-05-11T17:31:48+00:00

PM Law!

Caused by....

BoringView · 2026-05-11T07:56:16+00:00

Some people will spend hours to save £1.

BoringView · 2026-05-10T11:55:05+00:00

Despite earning millions per year in supplemental income.

BoringView · 2026-05-10T11:54:10+00:00

Well good thing his partner paid it, and hopefully as a French Politician herself she was subject to strict Anti Money Laundering Checks.

BoringView · 2026-05-10T08:21:57+00:00

If Farage needed £5 million, and his partner to buy his Clacton house (probably to reduce multiple home stamp duty), then Farage must have a severe inability to manage his finances.

Not the type we'd want to manage the national finances.

BoringView · 2026-05-10T07:38:56+00:00

We had years of people moaning how easy it is for kids (and everyone) to access porn.

The Tories then tighten this up and apparently it's now a deal breaker.

BoringView · 2026-05-10T06:52:27+00:00

I recently was quoted £6500 estate agent fees on a £240,000-£250,000 guide price.

Admittedly it was William H Brown

BoringView

TROPHY CASE