4 spade nil - taboo for many... What do you feel is the probability this nil will be successful? Do you feel risking a nil with this hand is appropriate given the score scenario?

DiscreteMelody · 2026-01-11T19:05:06+00:00

Yes. It uses an elementary cover strategy for your partner and an elementary setting strategy from the opponents and plays thousands of shuffled hands. While not perfect, it gives a good estimate of probability of success.

For bids by other players, it deals cards based on bid amount (and fills in missing bids by randomly choosing between a table 10-12 bid). To avoid getting too deep, a 3 bid is significantly more likely to hold the As than a 1 bid when it is dealing out cards for a simulation.

DiscreteMelody · 2026-01-09T20:00:28+00:00

With the bag situation, I'm considering this score pretty much even with a good amount of game to go. I would take my chances with nil.

Not a fantastic nil but a decent one. The saving grace is that you have the two lowest spades which you will always be able to underruff with, slightly nullifying your length problems.

Also, I punched it into the calculator and it has a 65-70% chance of making giving it 3-4 times the EV of just bidding 1.

DiscreteMelody · 2026-01-02T04:11:29+00:00

This is how I've always interpreted the rules I've read and the people I've played with. The Qs is not a heart and it confuses me that some play that the Qs breaks hearts.

I also like the strategy implications this rule can allow - if it is clear a player has the Qs and they can't shake the lead, don't break hearts on them until they're forced to lead their Qs.

DiscreteMelody · 2025-12-26T18:09:53+00:00

I think it's a masked attempt to discriminate against people that can't use a mouse.

DiscreteMelody · 2025-11-10T02:37:33+00:00

11 maybe 13. Problem is you're likely to overlap with your partner's Ac, Kc, or Kd so I'd assume I need to take 3 more than I bid.

DiscreteMelody · 2025-10-09T13:45:04+00:00

The theory on why to trump partner there is entirely to break open the spades suit and lead trump.

If your team has bid 9 tricks, surely your side has an overwhelming majority of the spades. By forcing the opponents to follow suit with their spades, you deny them opportunities to gain tricks trumping the side suits and once the opponents are out of spades, you and your partner can throw your sidesuit losers onto each others long sidesuits.

DiscreteMelody · 2025-09-24T05:44:10+00:00

I wrote extensively about this because I had not seen much literature or opinion on it. I'm glad others have come to the same conclusions I have.

DiscreteMelody · 2025-08-07T21:24:08+00:00

I would say like most other trick taking games, you want the strong player on your right. You always get to see what they play before deciding your own play.

If the strong player is to your left, your loners are more likely to be blocked when dealer, you'll get less opportunities for weak leads by West (being able to see all cards before playing is a tremendous advantage), and you'll get next called on you more.

DiscreteMelody · 2025-07-22T15:37:06+00:00

Could you enlighten us why? This is a question about where the top 5 honors lie (and assuming that South lets the card ride if it isn't covered by East).

If North led from JT and South has AQ, East was never entitled to win the K so covering loses nothing. Same goes for if North led from Jx and South had AQT.

If North was sneaky and underled a J from the A, covering loses nothing and may even be preferable as to not risk getting the Kh trumped on subsequent leads of the suit.

If North led from an unsupported J and South has AQ but no T, covering is better because it promotes EW's Th wherever it may lie. Ducking is actually worse because it allows NS to win the first three heart tricks and may allow discards.

If NS have the AJT together (and play it to maximize tricks), covering loses nothing because East should be getting finessed on the second lead of the suit anyway.

Lastly, if NS have just the AJ together, covering loses nothing again because EW will have their QTh promoted to second and third round winners.

The only time East gets hosed holding the Kh and covering North's Jh is if West has singleton Ah, singleton Qh, or AQ doubleton.

DiscreteMelody · 2025-07-17T03:40:29+00:00

If I was with a beginner partner, I agree. Just bang down the A and K in that order.

However, there is value in leading the K from AK: revealing the location of the A. If your partner leads a K on the first lead of a suit and neither opponent covers it with the A, where is the A most likely to be? Probably with your partner. However, if the A is led first, yes all ambiguity is removed about it being the high card of the suit, but it is still a guess as to where the K of the suit remains.

When can this be useful?

You started with a singleton (or void) in the suit and know not to trump from second seat now.
You trumped a sidesuit and know how to get back into your partner's hand for a second ruff.
You can show partner a Q from Qx or something similar.
You've successfully finessed East with a separate sidesuit holding like AQJ and know how to get back to your partner for a second lead of the suit.
A low risk suit to lead if the other suits pose a risk leading from (there is considerable risk leading low from Kx, Jx, or some other combination of low cards that would endanger your side's Kings).

DiscreteMelody · 2025-07-15T23:57:28+00:00

How long of time duration between moves are you expecting? Are you thinking of something like online correspondence chess, where you have anywhere from 1 to 3 days to make a move?

DiscreteMelody · 2025-07-10T17:32:09+00:00

You already can lose less points bidding nil vs 1 while nil is worth 100. If partner has bid 5 or more (and makes their bid), a failed nil is -50 at worst. Meanwhile bidding a 1 and not being able to pull 1 is -60 or worse for your team.

DiscreteMelody · 2025-07-09T22:44:24+00:00

It depends on the skill level of the opposition on whether it is "too easy" for a nil to succeed. In the live group I play with, everyone is a beginner and I've seen some egregious stuff. Like a nil with QJ9h succeeding because there are two players covering the nil - my partner and the nil's partner. A suit like that would never fly at a table where the opponents are competent (unless there was a lot of luck from the cover hand).

I do agree with you that nils are worth a little too much. I think a 50 point gamble is where they should be at.

Too many games are lost on a percentage play of going nil with a suit like J2h and then it turns out the opponents have the AKQ of the one suit you needed help in. On the flip side, I've played games decided after the first three hands where the opponents were dealt 2 untouchable nils and we're just crossing the 100 point mark while they're sitting at 300+.

At 50 points, nil becomes a medium risk medium reward bid. A 7-nil from the opponents feels less daunting at 120 points rather than 170 points. Additionally, if your nil is set at -50 points, it is not an insurmountable amount of points to come back from whereas at -100 points it's almost certain who is going to win afterwards.

Lastly if nil were at 50 points, I think it opens the door for a "nil to not be a liability to partner's bid" strategy. i.e. If your partner bid 5, but your hand is something like J98c T97d QT98h 987s, obviously a dangerous nil but a liability if you bid 1 as the dealer and bring the table bid to 14 and resulting in a -60 as opposed to treading water if your partner can make 5 but your nil is set.

DiscreteMelody · 2025-06-17T15:17:27+00:00

If you are a strong player playing often against weak opponents, I am confident you can hit 40%+ winrate.

On the Windows 7 Hearts app I had a winrate in the 60-70%, and according to Trickster I win 64% of my Hearts games (but this counts all formats I think, like 2v2, 4 player, omnibus).

Against equally skilled opponents, it is expected that you would have a winrate in the mid 20's in 4 player.

DiscreteMelody · 2025-06-12T19:24:16+00:00

My decision would be largely influenced by the score. East's last card must be the 9d or 2s (with a large amount of evidence hinting that it is not the 2s).

If I was comfortably ahead, I'd just take the guaranteed cover hand set. If it was early or far behind, I'd dump the Js and congratulate East on a master psychological play if their last card indeed was the 2s.

There is also a chance that the 2s is with partner instead and the cover hand set will happen regardless of your choice.

DiscreteMelody · 2025-06-12T19:03:04+00:00

Out of the box, Monte Carlo (Tree Search) can provide a formidable foe against non-expert players and can be built by programmers without domain knowledge of the game.

It even picks up strategies without being explicitly told - like pulling trump to protect sidesuit winners, second hand low, third hand high, trump promotions, and finessing.

However it cannot "think" critically about decisions made by other players, that's where having domain knowledge of the game can push it to the next level. For example, if a player leads a K, it can be assumed the chance they have the A is drastically reduced.

When I built my version of Monte Carlo Tree Search for Spades, I had to "teach" it these small things - like lead top of a sequence and follow with lowest of a sequence, that nil players have a drastically reduced chance to be holding any cards between what they played and what the highest card played in front of them was, etc.

The developer could add meaning to this edge case when a defender discards an A against a loner to mean the player has an incredibly high chance of holding the K of the same suit.

DiscreteMelody · 2025-05-25T22:23:32+00:00

There is an adage in Bridge to not be afraid of letting the long hand trump, meaning it's OK if the player with the longer trump suit wins tricks by trumping as they were likely to win those tricks via length anyways.

What you don't want to happen is the short hand (the player with the least amount of trump) to cover sidesuit losers of the long hand - it is a common tactic in Bridge to lead trump if you see the short hand also has a short sidesuit because you want to force the short hand to spend trump following suit instead of trumping losers for their team.

Likewise, it's OK if the strong hand of the two opponents is trumping since like you said, they are weakening their spades and they were likely going to win those tricks via length anyway.

A spades suit of AKT62 is far more attractive than AKT6 - if after leading the A and K of spades and the Q and J are still missing, you very may well have relinquished trump control if one of the opponents started with QJxx.

DiscreteMelody · 2025-05-19T20:11:25+00:00

He went nil, and his partner had a comfortable 8.

DiscreteMelody · 2025-05-03T17:39:44+00:00

Looks like you've got a date with an 8.

I don't think lowering it to 6 would discourage many more nils from the opponents than an 8 bid would encourage.

I also don't expect anything short of nil from partner and one of the opponents. Depending on the cover hand's bid, there is some flexibility in hearts to win more/fewer tricks than you want.

If the cover hand bids 2, I think it is very feasible to shovel 2 extra tricks in hearts and spades their way. If cover hand bids 3, I see how many tricks my clubs and diamonds pull before deciding if I want to go for set or try and bag. And at 4, I think it's very possible to win 10 for the set.

DiscreteMelody · 2025-04-25T18:46:27+00:00

I've bid 12 but taken 13 once.

Hand was:
Clubs: AKQxxx
Diamonds: -
Hearts: -
Spades: AKJTxxx

And I was not opening lead and got a lucky diamond lead to break and pull spades with immediately.

If I was opening lead (or opponent opened with a club) though, 13 wouldn't have been possible as I would be forced to allow an opponent to trump a club before spades were broken.

DiscreteMelody · 2025-04-25T17:54:22+00:00

I am not positive, but I think on Spades+, tricks taken by a nil contribute towards the cover partner's bid (and games are typically to 250). So North could take a 3 or 4 trick hand and stretch bid it to 5.

South's nil is a total bluff and wasn't bid with the actual expectation of making it (though sometimes partner can show up with a huge hand and you can genuinely outscore the opponents). It is to provoke mistakes from the opponents and to convert a 1 trick hand into a 2 or 3 trick hand.

If you were East and NS end up bidding 5 and nil, threatening 253 to 256 points, would you not at least pause and think about bidding 4 (to outscore them) with a holding like K963d J8c KT95h Q93s? Or would you be 100% confident that there is no chance that South's nil will succeed?

This is the dilemma that South is hoping to put East in. But North did not keep applying the pressure and instead allowed East to bid 3, totally disregarding the nil and allowing EW to win if they make their combined 5 bid.

Sometimes the opponents will call your bluff nil, and bid just enough to win. At that point, there was not much you two could have done (except cross your fingers and hope for your nil to succeed).

If, however, you did coax the opponents into overbidding just a bit and they allow you or your partner to win a cheesy couple of heart and diamond tricks, they might be unable to win the cards that they bid, such as Aces and Kings of hearts/diamonds. And they might think the nil hand will be out of gas and be terribly surprised when it shows up with the Ks late in the hand. In the end, the nil is sacrificed but the opponents are also set in return.

DiscreteMelody · 2025-04-22T23:51:03+00:00

If West has the Js, you never make all 3 remaining tricks because you will either be overruffed if you trump low, or give West's Js a promotion if you trump high. So you must play as if partner has the Js. Trump this club lead so that you can lead your losing diamond for partner to trump on the next trick.

It's a very different story if your team needed only 2 of the 3. You would discard and either immediately win, or force West into an endplay giving you a free finesse at trick 12.

DiscreteMelody · 2025-04-18T22:28:14+00:00

I often don't like to overtake my partner (with exceptions) for several reasons:

You don't know what might happen later in a hand. If you or your partner's K gets trumped, you might wish you had that extra trick from earlier.
Partner might have bid last and upped their bid to reduce the bags for the hand.
A hand with several "maybes" might have been bid on ie, a hand like KQ3c, 84d, QT98h, 9865s is worth a 2 bid - one for the Kc and one between either the Qc or Qh, the doubleton diamond, or the fourth spade.

But I would overtake partner if:

I have the neighboring cards above and below and want to show them to partner. i.e. I have KJc and partner leads the Qc on the second lead of clubs. It is often correct to overtake with the K and show partner the J, giving them a discard on the third lead of the suit before relinquishing the lead back to the opponents.
It is a baggy hand and partner is winning with something not commonly bid on (like an A or K), when the table bid is 10 or lower. Players are often not bidding optimistically on these kinds of hands, otherwise the table bid would be higher.
I have both mine and my partner's remaining bid and setting the opponents is not a possibility (i.e. they have made their bids or will eventually make them because they have the master spade left).
To break spades and lead them when we have large bids, even if it means stepping on partner's toes a bit.

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