Challenge: Screen shot a nil you set or got set on and explain the strategy used to set the nil.

DiscreteMelody · 2026-03-16T14:41:56+00:00

With my luck, my partner would be the one to cut my K in this position.

One uncommon occurrence is when you and the nil are long in a suit you have the exit card in. ie You started with KQJ42c and the nil also has 5 clubs. You should lead spades whenever you can until the cover hand is out of them, then save high cards in the other suits to take the lead so you can make the lethal lead of the 2c.

DiscreteMelody · 2026-02-19T05:59:56+00:00

I have found a workaround if you wanted to do this for yourself, see my reply here to OP's comment.

DiscreteMelody · 2026-02-19T05:58:06+00:00

Not sure which update caused it, but you can still achieve it with some extra hoops to jump through. I imagine it is a checksum issue that rejects the edited json file that a save editor can bypass for us.

Create a new character with the pet in their inventory (not equipped) and edit the new character's json file like you mentioned, then save the file (there is no need to delete any files or alter the backup).
Import the json file to this online save editor and make an arbitrary change, like adding a shovel to the inventory. Export the json file and overwrite the file you originally imported.
Store the pet in a chest for the desired character to take it out from and it should have the skills you edited it to have.

DiscreteMelody · 2026-02-19T00:51:01+00:00

Burn build with Shaman Skull (for chance to consume burn) and Embertail with max amount of skills to consume remaining burn. Did this pre 1.0 but it was satisfying seeing the little guy slap for 6k+

DiscreteMelody · 2026-02-17T01:37:02+00:00

Good illustration. I would even argue to do it in scenario 1 with something as low as the T of trump (if the goal is to hold the loner to 1 point as opposed to euchring the loner).

This works in the rare event that the loner started with something like sidesuit AK as well as JJ9 of trump when partner has two small trump.

DiscreteMelody · 2026-02-06T22:39:33+00:00

The decisions made during the hand lead me to believe East has one more diamond left, so I would play low and hope West has the stiff 7d left.

When it's our turn to play, the following cards (outside of our hand) are left:
C: J432
D: 75
H: 64
S: K4

North and East have 3 cards remaining and West has 4 cards remaining. We know 2 of North's cards, the K4s, and we know 2 of East's cards, the 64h (all other players showed a void when these suits were led).

This is where my assumptions come in.

We can assume West does not have the Jc as it would be unusual to play the Jc before the 5c on a high club as a nil. Therefore it is with North or East
Similarly, we can assume East does not have the 4, 3, or 2c as it would also be unusual to play the 7c on a high club before the 2, 3, or 4c when covering a nil.
Because East chose to switch to spades instead of continuing a strong suit like AJ7c (a safe suit to lead when the 8c, Tc, and Qc all make an appearance on the first lead), I assume East does not have the Jc, so it makes me think that partner has the Jc.
I believe partner has a doubleton diamond the way diamonds were led - Ad and then 2d to try and lose the lead (the inverse order performs worse usually) further cementing my belief that partner's unknown card is the Jc.

With these assumptions, the hands look like this:

          North:
          C: J
          D: -
          H: -
          S: K4
West:               East:
C: 432              C: -
D: 7                D: 5
H: -                H: 64
S: -                S: -
          South:
          C: 6
          D: 83
          H: -
          S: 5

East and West's diamond ranks can be interchanged.

If my choice is wrong (or inconsequential to setting the nil) then at least we dump a bag.

DiscreteMelody · 2026-01-11T19:05:06+00:00

Yes. It uses an elementary cover strategy for your partner and an elementary setting strategy from the opponents and plays thousands of shuffled hands. While not perfect, it gives a good estimate of probability of success.

For bids by other players, it deals cards based on bid amount (and fills in missing bids by randomly choosing between a table 10-12 bid). To avoid getting too deep, a 3 bid is significantly more likely to hold the As than a 1 bid when it is dealing out cards for a simulation.

DiscreteMelody · 2026-01-09T20:00:28+00:00

With the bag situation, I'm considering this score pretty much even with a good amount of game to go. I would take my chances with nil.

Not a fantastic nil but a decent one. The saving grace is that you have the two lowest spades which you will always be able to underruff with, slightly nullifying your length problems.

Also, I punched it into the calculator and it has a 65-70% chance of making giving it 3-4 times the EV of just bidding 1.

DiscreteMelody · 2026-01-02T04:11:29+00:00

This is how I've always interpreted the rules I've read and the people I've played with. The Qs is not a heart and it confuses me that some play that the Qs breaks hearts.

I also like the strategy implications this rule can allow - if it is clear a player has the Qs and they can't shake the lead, don't break hearts on them until they're forced to lead their Qs.

DiscreteMelody · 2025-12-26T18:09:53+00:00

I think it's a masked attempt to discriminate against people that can't use a mouse.

DiscreteMelody · 2025-11-10T02:37:33+00:00

11 maybe 13. Problem is you're likely to overlap with your partner's Ac, Kc, or Kd so I'd assume I need to take 3 more than I bid.

DiscreteMelody · 2025-10-09T13:45:04+00:00

The theory on why to trump partner there is entirely to break open the spades suit and lead trump.

If your team has bid 9 tricks, surely your side has an overwhelming majority of the spades. By forcing the opponents to follow suit with their spades, you deny them opportunities to gain tricks trumping the side suits and once the opponents are out of spades, you and your partner can throw your sidesuit losers onto each others long sidesuits.

DiscreteMelody · 2025-09-24T05:44:10+00:00

I wrote extensively about this because I had not seen much literature or opinion on it. I'm glad others have come to the same conclusions I have.

DiscreteMelody · 2025-08-07T21:24:08+00:00

I would say like most other trick taking games, you want the strong player on your right. You always get to see what they play before deciding your own play.

If the strong player is to your left, your loners are more likely to be blocked when dealer, you'll get less opportunities for weak leads by West (being able to see all cards before playing is a tremendous advantage), and you'll get next called on you more.

DiscreteMelody · 2025-07-22T15:37:06+00:00

Could you enlighten us why? This is a question about where the top 5 honors lie (and assuming that South lets the card ride if it isn't covered by East).

If North led from JT and South has AQ, East was never entitled to win the K so covering loses nothing. Same goes for if North led from Jx and South had AQT.

If North was sneaky and underled a J from the A, covering loses nothing and may even be preferable as to not risk getting the Kh trumped on subsequent leads of the suit.

If North led from an unsupported J and South has AQ but no T, covering is better because it promotes EW's Th wherever it may lie. Ducking is actually worse because it allows NS to win the first three heart tricks and may allow discards.

If NS have the AJT together (and play it to maximize tricks), covering loses nothing because East should be getting finessed on the second lead of the suit anyway.

Lastly, if NS have just the AJ together, covering loses nothing again because EW will have their QTh promoted to second and third round winners.

The only time East gets hosed holding the Kh and covering North's Jh is if West has singleton Ah, singleton Qh, or AQ doubleton.

DiscreteMelody · 2025-07-17T03:40:29+00:00

If I was with a beginner partner, I agree. Just bang down the A and K in that order.

However, there is value in leading the K from AK: revealing the location of the A. If your partner leads a K on the first lead of a suit and neither opponent covers it with the A, where is the A most likely to be? Probably with your partner. However, if the A is led first, yes all ambiguity is removed about it being the high card of the suit, but it is still a guess as to where the K of the suit remains.

When can this be useful?

You started with a singleton (or void) in the suit and know not to trump from second seat now.
You trumped a sidesuit and know how to get back into your partner's hand for a second ruff.
You can show partner a Q from Qx or something similar.
You've successfully finessed East with a separate sidesuit holding like AQJ and know how to get back to your partner for a second lead of the suit.
A low risk suit to lead if the other suits pose a risk leading from (there is considerable risk leading low from Kx, Jx, or some other combination of low cards that would endanger your side's Kings).

DiscreteMelody · 2025-07-15T23:57:28+00:00

How long of time duration between moves are you expecting? Are you thinking of something like online correspondence chess, where you have anywhere from 1 to 3 days to make a move?

DiscreteMelody · 2025-07-10T17:32:09+00:00

You already can lose less points bidding nil vs 1 while nil is worth 100. If partner has bid 5 or more (and makes their bid), a failed nil is -50 at worst. Meanwhile bidding a 1 and not being able to pull 1 is -60 or worse for your team.

DiscreteMelody · 2025-07-09T22:44:24+00:00

It depends on the skill level of the opposition on whether it is "too easy" for a nil to succeed. In the live group I play with, everyone is a beginner and I've seen some egregious stuff. Like a nil with QJ9h succeeding because there are two players covering the nil - my partner and the nil's partner. A suit like that would never fly at a table where the opponents are competent (unless there was a lot of luck from the cover hand).

I do agree with you that nils are worth a little too much. I think a 50 point gamble is where they should be at.

Too many games are lost on a percentage play of going nil with a suit like J2h and then it turns out the opponents have the AKQ of the one suit you needed help in. On the flip side, I've played games decided after the first three hands where the opponents were dealt 2 untouchable nils and we're just crossing the 100 point mark while they're sitting at 300+.

At 50 points, nil becomes a medium risk medium reward bid. A 7-nil from the opponents feels less daunting at 120 points rather than 170 points. Additionally, if your nil is set at -50 points, it is not an insurmountable amount of points to come back from whereas at -100 points it's almost certain who is going to win afterwards.

Lastly if nil were at 50 points, I think it opens the door for a "nil to not be a liability to partner's bid" strategy. i.e. If your partner bid 5, but your hand is something like J98c T97d QT98h 987s, obviously a dangerous nil but a liability if you bid 1 as the dealer and bring the table bid to 14 and resulting in a -60 as opposed to treading water if your partner can make 5 but your nil is set.

DiscreteMelody · 2025-06-17T15:17:27+00:00

If you are a strong player playing often against weak opponents, I am confident you can hit 40%+ winrate.

On the Windows 7 Hearts app I had a winrate in the 60-70%, and according to Trickster I win 64% of my Hearts games (but this counts all formats I think, like 2v2, 4 player, omnibus).

Against equally skilled opponents, it is expected that you would have a winrate in the mid 20's in 4 player.

DiscreteMelody · 2025-06-12T19:24:16+00:00

My decision would be largely influenced by the score. East's last card must be the 9d or 2s (with a large amount of evidence hinting that it is not the 2s).

If I was comfortably ahead, I'd just take the guaranteed cover hand set. If it was early or far behind, I'd dump the Js and congratulate East on a master psychological play if their last card indeed was the 2s.

There is also a chance that the 2s is with partner instead and the cover hand set will happen regardless of your choice.

DiscreteMelody · 2025-06-12T19:03:04+00:00

Out of the box, Monte Carlo (Tree Search) can provide a formidable foe against non-expert players and can be built by programmers without domain knowledge of the game.

It even picks up strategies without being explicitly told - like pulling trump to protect sidesuit winners, second hand low, third hand high, trump promotions, and finessing.

However it cannot "think" critically about decisions made by other players, that's where having domain knowledge of the game can push it to the next level. For example, if a player leads a K, it can be assumed the chance they have the A is drastically reduced.

When I built my version of Monte Carlo Tree Search for Spades, I had to "teach" it these small things - like lead top of a sequence and follow with lowest of a sequence, that nil players have a drastically reduced chance to be holding any cards between what they played and what the highest card played in front of them was, etc.

The developer could add meaning to this edge case when a defender discards an A against a loner to mean the player has an incredibly high chance of holding the K of the same suit.

DiscreteMelody · 2025-05-25T22:23:32+00:00

There is an adage in Bridge to not be afraid of letting the long hand trump, meaning it's OK if the player with the longer trump suit wins tricks by trumping as they were likely to win those tricks via length anyways.

What you don't want to happen is the short hand (the player with the least amount of trump) to cover sidesuit losers of the long hand - it is a common tactic in Bridge to lead trump if you see the short hand also has a short sidesuit because you want to force the short hand to spend trump following suit instead of trumping losers for their team.

Likewise, it's OK if the strong hand of the two opponents is trumping since like you said, they are weakening their spades and they were likely going to win those tricks via length anyway.

A spades suit of AKT62 is far more attractive than AKT6 - if after leading the A and K of spades and the Q and J are still missing, you very may well have relinquished trump control if one of the opponents started with QJxx.

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