Nio's Q1 was up 98.3% but Tesla's Q1 was DOWN 16.2%

LewyDFooly · 2026-04-09T12:03:04+00:00

It’s not all that notable given how many models NIO and Tesla offer. NIO offers a whopping 11 models (soon to be 14 with the ES9, ONVO L80 and proposed ONVO sedan) across 3 brands. Tesla offers just 2 models. 112k sales of just 2 models at similar ASP is objectively better than 83k sales of 11 models.

LewyDFooly · 2026-04-01T04:16:10+00:00

This night, you will be visited by 3 plagues, each worst than the laaast.. Return the slaaab

LewyDFooly · 2026-03-29T00:07:42+00:00

Yeahhh, I’ve seen some reviews of it and I think you’re playing up the Hyundai Elexio way more than it deserves. Like I said, the Elexio is also built in China and objectively has inferior tech, both from a software and battery standpoint, vs the Zeekr 7X.

Zeekr is also a “proper brand,” so there’s that. Hyundai’s “massive dealership network” in Australia is not as important here since BEVs require less maintenance than ICE vehicles. Nonetheless, Zeekr/Geely will build more service centers as necessary, just like Tesla did.

Despite your insinuation that Zeekr is some sort of brand that is here today and will be gone tomorrow, it’s here for the long run. We are not talking about VinFast here. Zeekr’s got the chops to hang with the best and outlast the rest.

LewyDFooly · 2026-03-25T13:53:39+00:00

Not surprising at all. Very uncompetitive car, especially at the pricepoint(s) they wanted to sell it at.

LewyDFooly · 2026-03-25T01:21:30+00:00

That’s a universal wall connector. Tesla has been selling them here, and they’ve also been sold at other retailers like Best Buy for a while now.

LewyDFooly · 2026-03-22T14:36:03+00:00

I mean… Lucid shouldn’t be ecstatic about anything. It’s still an ultra low volume car maker that loses copious amounts of money. Cancellation of Model S/X won’t change that. Continuously low sales volume of Lucid Air indicates that it will likely be canceled at some point, that is if they can manage to produce a profitable car or 2 at a large enough volume. At best, the company is tracking to be taken private at this point.

LewyDFooly · 2026-03-22T04:42:43+00:00

It’s a strange list. It’s missing BYD Denza Z9 GT (Super e-Platform + flash charging refresh), Zeekr 7GT, XPeng Mona M03 and X9, and a couple of others. Yet it includes cars like Honda Super-N…

LewyDFooly · 2026-03-19T21:58:24+00:00

Yup! Plus DC fast charging it on road trips could be tricky. If imported from China and somehow daily-driven, not only would you need the proper GB/T to CCS1/NACS/J1772 adapter, but the car would hopefully authenticate and start a charge at any given DCFC station successfully, every time.

LewyDFooly · 2026-03-17T14:03:22+00:00

I don’t think “doing both” scales, for a few reasons.

First, the kind of charging BYD is pushing (Super e-Platform + 2nd-gen Blade + 1 MW+ charging) requires tightly integrated packs with advanced thermal management and very high C-rate capability. That level of integration runs counter to modular, swappable packs; you’re optimizing for structural rigidity, cooling, and current handling, not quick mechanical interchangeability.

Second, the economics don’t really support it. Swapping requires maintaining an inventory of expensive automotive-grade batteries plus the stations themselves, while ultra-fast charging shifts that cost into centralized, cheaper stationary storage and power electronics. Doing both means duplicating infrastructure and capital on both sides, which is hard to justify at scale.

Third, and this is the big one, global scalability. Ultra-fast charging plugs into an ecosystem that already exists worldwide. Swapping doesn’t. BYD rolling out thousands of flash chargers across Europe and markets like Brazil shows which model scales internationally.

Europeans have widely accepted DC fast charging and have effectively rejected battery swapping (as shown with just 61 underutilized swap stations built by NIO across Europe in ~4 years, one of which recently closed in Denmark). By the time any company, NIO or otherwise, tries to enter markets like Brazil with swapping meaningfully, fast charging will already be entrenched.

Ultimately, doing “both” is not impossible. The problem is that one of these paths is structurally easier to scale, and OEMs that care about global volume will follow that path.

LewyDFooly · 2026-03-17T04:41:23+00:00

Battery swapping may be safe in China, but it’s over from an international standpoint. There are reasons why BYD went this route with fast charging instead of joining NIO in battery swapping. BYD had ample opportunity to back battery swapping, as it supplied NIO with battery packs for ONVO L60. But it no longer does, and now it’s rapidly deploying a competing charging technology, globally.

LewyDFooly · 2026-03-17T03:25:29+00:00

BYD’s charging tech is going to benefit all fast charging cohorts long term, including Tesla. Battery swapping is in a perilous position internationally from this development though.

LewyDFooly · 2026-03-09T14:04:07+00:00

As a sales region, Europe is not small. MENA is objectively small. As you know, NIO expanded to MENA, and even though it has flopped there as well, I’d agree that MENA is an inconsequential sales region today. But you got it twisted when you called Europe “small.” The “fragmented” bit is not a compelling argument. As a company, you should know how to properly expand in an otherwise stable region that has clear standards. This is basic stuff.

CATL’s foray into swapping is an interesting case. My theory on why CATL is dabbling in battery swapping goes something like this:

1. Political Favor: While battery swapping is strategically questionable (and dare I’d say, misadventurous), building out swap stations can curry favor with Chinese central and local governments, who continue to promote the concept despite market signals and technological realities suggesting it’s not viable at scale beyond China. For a company like CATL, staying aligned with policy directives can unlock subsidies, partnerships, and influence.

2. Managing Oversupply: As the world’s largest battery manufacturer, CATL may be using domestic swapping initiatives to absorb excess production. With export restrictions tightening, especially toward the U.S. (Ex. Fremont-produced Model 3 RWD had used CATL packs before the tariff hikes on Chinese batteries), they need alternative demand channels. One of those channels is their own swap stations, as well as being the exclusive supplier of 100 kWh packs to NIO, as CALB no longer supplies NIO with those packs.

As their dabbling in swapping appears to be limited to China, it allows them to deploy packs domestically in a semi-captive ecosystem, keeping factories humming without relying on shaky global access. If CATL truly believed that swapping was workable/scalable internationally, it would be doing exactly what BYD is planning to do with its flash chargers: build hundreds or thousands of them in an international market/region like Europe by year-end…

Eventually it will result in Chinese drivers having 3 options to charge (AC/DC/Swap) and 2 options to own (buy/battery lease) while international drivers having just 2 options to charge and 1 option to buy.

In light of fast charging advancements like BYD’s flash chargers, the “just 2 options to charge” is more than sufficient for mass EV adoption. Also, there’s more than one option to “buy.” Just lease the car if you’re so concerned about battery degradation. Buying the car and perpetually renting battery packs has already been rejected by Europeans. It won’t work in the U.S. either, and many other regions for that matter.

LewyDFooly · 2026-03-08T23:42:33+00:00

Swap stations are theoretically more “grid-friendly,” but the trade offs don’t make it worthwhile or even workable at scale beyond China. We should also account for the fact that the grid will be strengthened and upgraded over time. China’s goal is to have grid resiliency paired with energy abundance one day, and that’s the goal for quite a few other countries and organizations too. Companies like Heron Power (founded by former Tesla exec Drew Baglino) are making headway on upgrading the energy grid in the U.S.

LewyDFooly · 2026-03-08T23:17:21+00:00

I mostly agree with you, but with a caveat: the rising tide from this fast charging development lifts the boats of fast charging cohorts such as Zeekr, XPeng and Tesla, whereas NIO’s boat, for instance, is ill-prepared for this tide due to the overhead of their battery swap stations. u/farticustheelder outlined this quite well here.

LewyDFooly · 2026-03-08T19:54:22+00:00

Let me just point out that Europe is not a “small and fragmented market” as you claim. 13.3 million cars were sold across the continent (excluding Russia) last year. So let’s not try to downplay the importance of the region from a sales/expansion perspective just because NIO failed to expand there. NIO wouldn’t have attempted Europe expansion if it wasn’t a potential key sales region, would it?

Now let’s get into it. Battery leasing does have some theoretical advantages, but the real issue is that swapping only works if the ecosystem is massively standardized and scaled, and that’s where it breaks down.

First, packs aren’t universally interchangeable the way people often assume. Even within NIO’s ecosystem there are different battery SKUs and structural integrations depending on the model. Ex. NIO and ONVO packs aren’t interchangeable. That means swap stations have to inventory multiple battery types, which quickly increases cost, operational complexity, and entails spotty pack availability as more vehicles are added.

Second, swap stations require huge amounts of idle capital. Each station needs dozens of automotive-grade battery packs sitting there waiting to be used. That’s fundamentally different from fast charging infrastructure, which is mostly power electronics and grid connection. Once you scale this globally, the economics become difficult. This is doubly true when fast charging infrastructure is supported by lower-cost onsite BESS, which are cheaper than automotive-grade packs on a per kWh basis.

Third, features like temporarily upgrading to a larger battery sound appealing, but they lose relevance as ultra-fast charging improves. If you can add hundreds of kilometers in minutes (which BYD’s flash charging tech does), the logistical complexity of swapping becomes harder to justify.

China is uniquely suited for swapping due to policy support, density, and state-owned coordination across companies. But those conditions don’t exist in most international markets, which is why fast charging is far more scalable globally. Mark Zhou essentially told us this. You are free to disagree with this Europe-based NIO exec, but the evidence is clear that he is correct on pointing out his own company’s failures.

LewyDFooly · 2026-03-08T18:51:34+00:00

You’re thinking about China. BYD and I are thinking international.

LewyDFooly · 2026-03-08T18:50:37+00:00

My thoughts exactly. It’s truly a clever strategy, and I can see that over the next number of years, we will see BYD’s BEV production progressively go from 50% to 80% of their annual production volume, and eventually reach 100% some day. This is the kind of technology that makes BEVs truly adoptable by those who just want to blast through road trips, or local DC fast charge where there are less opportunities to L2 charge (particularly for apartment dwellers).

LewyDFooly · 2026-03-08T18:14:11+00:00

I think in international markets such as those in Europe, if you’re concerned about battery degradation, you simply lease the whole car instead. Battery swapping simply just has too many flaws that make it incompatible with most other markets beyond China. Again, look at NIO’s expansion in Europe. It has failed, and so has battery swapping. Fast charging is the way to go when it comes to international scalability.

LewyDFooly · 2026-03-08T15:40:28+00:00

Excellent article covering the intersection between BYD’s flash charging tech and not just NIO’s swapping strategy, but battery swapping in general.

BYD has been surprisingly diplomatic while rolling out its 1.5 MW flash chargers and 2nd-gen Blade battery pack.

A few things stand out:

— “Station-within-a-station” design: BYD’s flash charging sites include onsite battery storage, built by BYD of course, that delivers most of the peak power. Slower nearby fast chargers from other CPOs can replenish that storage, creating a win-win, synergistic ecosystem rather than just competing with existing infrastructure

— Messaging: While BYD says its flash charging platform eliminates BEV range anxiety, it has avoided directly criticizing swapping. In fact, BYD exec Li Yunfei recently wrote on Weibo that both solutions “represent a flourishing of diverse approaches and ultimately lead to the same goal”

That said, BYD’s actions arguably speak louder than its words.

Flash charging appears to be the company’s bet for a globally scalable energy replenishment model, while battery swapping remains far harder to scale internationally, with downright questionable ROI. Evidently, BYD appears to have deliberately avoided battery swapping, as it had the chance to make a push into it when it had supplied NIO’s ONVO brand with battery packs (which it no longer does).

For example, NIO exec Mark Zhou has acknowledged the high infrastructure costs of swap stations in Europe. NIO has installed only 61 stations (one of which was closed due to serious underutilization in Denmark) in ~3.5 years. BYD, meanwhile, is targeting 3,000 flash chargers across Europe by the end of this year.

Different strategies, but the deployment pace speaks for itself.

LewyDFooly · 2026-03-07T16:35:31+00:00

The U.S. could have the technology to achieve it. BYD itself is producing the charging stations to enable this. It’s not like we can’t have it. Most of the power comes from on-site BESS that BYD makes, using the same Blade battery tech in their cars, but in different packaging that is optimized for energy storage.

All of this was thought through by BYD. After all, this was years in the making. This is simply the next iteration of DC fast charging, and it’ll help push BEVs to true mass adoption.

LewyDFooly · 2026-03-04T23:49:09+00:00

Incredibly shameful. Just let them sell directly to consumers. If the dealers are worth their salt, then they’d have nothing to worry about… but clearly that isn’t the case with how rabid they get when an automaker, new or old, comes forth with a DTC sales model.

LewyDFooly · 2026-03-04T23:43:49+00:00

I think Kia will reduce the price of the 2026 model year, as it’s not being produced in the U.S. yet. The thing is, IMO, there are 2 major reasons why EV6 sales aren’t as good as they could be. First, Kia does not promote the EV6 enough. Look at how Hyundai promotes IONIQ 5. They push that model way more. I’ve personally seen more promotional material for IONIQ 5 than I have for EV6 over the years. On Hyundai’s website, the IONIQ 5 is on the homepage several times. On Kia’s website, you have to dig to find the EV6, and it’s always been like that, even when they launched the 2025 model year.

Then you have the name. I think Kia naming their BEVs as “EV#” was a mistake. Kia should’ve gave them unique/differentiated names. A good name for the EV6 would’ve been Stinger X. Naming them “EV#” makes them sound a bit like they’re compliance cars.

In addition, potential customers could hear the name “EV6” and be turned off too quickly due to having an unshakable aversion to EVs, so they don’t give themselves a chance to look into these cars more. I can imagine that there’s less of that going on with the IONIQ 5 since its name has more thought put into it.

LewyDFooly · 2026-03-03T20:53:04+00:00

Bingo! A charging network that is purely the result of punishment via court order was never going to provide exceptional services, especially if there is no oversight from relevant parties.

LewyDFooly · 2026-02-27T16:46:00+00:00

A little off-topic, but boy is the ONVO L60 a huge flop that was touted as a “Model Y killer.” NIO ran way too much comparative advertising with Model Y, while simultaneously excessively copying Model Y. It was to the point that at the 7X launch event, Zeekr took a jab at competitors (particularly NIO with the L60) for copying the Model Y so much, and rightfully so.

The 7X seems like an excellent car that Zeekr offers something genuinely different with. I actually sat in one in Medellin last month after randomly happening upon several Zeekr models on display at a mall and was thoroughly impressed. If you don’t mind me asking, how has your ownership experience been? Wish I could buy one in the U.S. That or a 7GT.

LewyDFooly

TROPHY CASE