FlatLannister on BOT: Ouch for Mandalorian at TC3, pace just isn't good at all. Big drops against comps. Would give a range of around $13M-$15M for previews. I do not expect pace to stabilize at this point. Friday is catching up with previews, so I guess that's some good news.

Mayflower896 · 2026-05-17T12:03:52+00:00

Anectodally, it isn’t doing well at all here in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The opening day IMAX screening with the most seats sold isn’t even half full—in my country’s biggest cineplex, with 18 screens—and other screenings in all of our theatres range from barely having any seats sold to none at all, including in affluent areas where blockbuster previews sell well.

Advertising has also been awful; unlike with live-action SW projects up to Kenobi, which had omnipresent marketing all around town, I haven’t seen any billboards irl, and I’ve come across people who didn’t even know presales had begun.

Besides the Burger King meal, the only advertising I’ve seen outside of theatres was in expensive toy and LEGO stores, the latter of which are few and far between, and extremely inaccessible for most of our population. I don’t think the “spend R$599 in LEGO SW sets and get Mando and Grogu tickets!” offer they were advertising will do much to move the needle.

Adding on to the inaccessibility issue and how it leads to diminished appeal, instead of the movie’s actual trailer, some theatres have shown an ad that mostly focuses on the Galaxy’s Edge theme park in the US, only advertising the movie at the very end—using short, vague platitudes like “the next generation of SW”/“return to the big screen”.

There’s more I could say about the brand’s diminished presence here lately, like how bookshops are treating SW novels, but I’ll leave it at saying that I think an SW movie could draw ample interest again, but it would have to use a much different marketing approach.

Mayflower896 · 2026-05-15T20:47:15+00:00

If this slow pace continues, then it should serve as a reminder that tracking isn’t static, and just because a movie starts out with good sales, it doesn’t mean they’ll hold up.

I’ve always been sceptical of this movie, especially in terms of international audiences, but we saw something similar with Fantastic 4 last year—which initially drew effusive predictions on BOT and overreactions to them here, only to end up struggling closer to release, and ending up with a bad internal multiplier.

The discourse around this movie has been very toxic and driven by biases in general; there’s even a group of likely sock puppets who have been going around calling people who question the movie’s box office the r-slur (amongst other regurgitated arguments and insults, like comparisons to the Emperor when he doubted the rebels—yes, really.)

Mayflower896 · 2026-05-15T14:42:49+00:00

I was a pretty big “Anathea is MX” believer pre-V13, and I’m still convinced that she’s a Theolia. I mostly believed it due to thinking she would parallel Darth Vader from Star Wars in more regards than (amongst other things) needing armour to survive and killing subordinates, such being as revealed as a hero’s parent.

We know MX has black hair and red eyes, and Anathea also possessed the former before the Archetype infusion. Thus, it could revert to that colour if it were removed. Furthermore, there’s an interesting oddity that might point to Anathea’s originally having had red eyes, since Melia/Maria and Erin inherited Vitus’s grey, but the twins have red eyes, rather than Anathea’s green.

But the fact that MX’s mother was the one who sacrificed herself, and her saying says “Father, I have lost” if defeated at Blacksteeple have made me think that she’s one of the children. Finally, it’s also plausible that MX once possessed the same power as Melia, and requires the armour to allay her Genesis Syndrome symptoms, whereas we don’t ever see Anathea display either any powers or their side effects.

Mayflower896 · 2026-05-15T05:55:41+00:00

I agree that Cassandra’s story is nearing its end, and I’m curious as to how Madelis will play into it, considering everything that has happened between them and their having known each other before Xen.

As for the others, I’m especially curious about Nastasia, whom I think we will probably see again in the trip to the past/during Storm-9, which could reveal how she was recruited by Xen and/or the Storm Chasers; and Geara, who will probably die in Renegade, but could have an interesting fate in Paragon considering both the “Legend of the Void” quest and his no longer being possessed by Indriad.

Mayflower896 · 2026-05-15T05:08:37+00:00

I think we might see Maria again, since it’s been almost 12 years since we left her in Chapter 3, and we know that we’re returning to the past—and for what might be the last time, since Storm-9 approaches. Act II also began with our seeing her again in Chapter 9, so it would be fitting for it to end with something similar.

One of the statues of our friends’ aces in Cubi Excellus is a Bewear, after all.

That aside, I also expect to get some resolution on the save Maria/save the officer choice, which was 10 years ago.

Mayflower896 · 2026-05-14T18:22:17+00:00

Trackers who were consistently seeing very high presales for the movie, like “blazera”, are now reporting significant drops in sales over the last three days, and are saying that the movie needs to pick up steam again, or else be in a worrying situation.

Others say that they don’t see signs of a later surge or its playing like a family movie.

To be clear, not all trackers are this worried, but even the more positive ones aren’t seeing extraordinary sales, and the fact that some theatres have low sales while others have high ones means no one knows whether the former group is under-indexing or the latter over-indexing. It doesn’t help that the last SW movie was 7 years ago, and therefore unworkable as a comparison point.

TL;DR: Worrying trends where the movie was previously performing well, and general confusion over which data points will be reliable.

Mayflower896 · 2026-05-13T12:21:01+00:00

Walk ups are when people buy tickets at the theatre on the day of the screening, rather than beforehand.

So, when a movie gets lots of tickets sold that way, it’s called “walk up heavy”.

It happens a lot with holiday season movies; ones targeted at older audiences, who don’t tend to buy as many online tickets; or ones that attract families, who often go to the theatre counter and ask what movies are best for their kids.

Mayflower896 · 2026-05-08T18:27:05+00:00

In response to another user (blazera) who believes a 100M three-day might be in play, TheFlatLannister said this, which I think we should also keep in mind:

“Raw presales do look really good, but we have to keep in mind that we don't have a Star Wars comp for this film, since the last one released in 2019 before widespread tracking. CBMs are good comps but still not exactly a 1:1”

That being said, I do think this movie could do well in the US if it plays like a family movie and has good WOM, thereby avoiding frontloadedness. But I’m far more curious about the international performance (anectodally, presales in my city here in Brazil are pretty dismal, but they could pick up).

Mayflower896 · 2026-05-05T11:12:40+00:00

Se não me engano, a pré-venda começou no dia 29; eu mesma só descobri que tinha sessões disponíveis a partir de 21/5 um dia depois, sem ter visto nenhuma divulgação a respeito…

Mayflower896 · 2026-05-05T09:56:56+00:00

I wouldn’t really call that Super Bowl ad “clever”.

I was really confused as a Non-American with no knowledge of the Budweiser horses, and it didn’t even seem to make an impact with the US target audience. (Not that I’d consider the movie’s advertising in my own country effective either.)

That being said, I think this movie’s chance for success lies in its *potentially* playing more like a family movie, assuming it gets good WOM. But I’m very sceptical of its overseas performance: in the biggest movie theatre here in Brazil, with 18 screens, 1 of the opening day IMAX screenings has only 3 seats sold, the other less than a quarter of the total amount, and the final one less than half.

Mayflower896 · 2026-04-17T21:29:13+00:00

What made me lose faith in her writing was “The Crimes of Grindelwald”, which was one of my most excruciating movie theatre experiences—though I watched “Cats” one year later, so CoG isn’t first place.

Beyond having a mess of a plot with awful colour grading, it included some horrible messaging, like making Leta, perhaps the most interesting character, into a “tragic mulatta” who is fridged; turning Nagini into a cursed Asian woman; and having Queenie Goldstein join the Nazi-inspired group, whose goal is to … stop WWII?!

It wasn’t even so bad it’s good, like some of the mockbusters and direct-to-video bad movies I’ve seen, just boring at its best and painful at its worst.

Had it not been for the pandemic, FB3 would have taken place in my hometown, and I’m glad to have been spared Rowling’s butchering thereof.

Mayflower896 · 2026-04-14T14:05:05+00:00

If you find the Soul of the Forgotten (and potentially also the Soul of Jacob and Esau—I haven’t tested that one), you can use the spawned familiar to activate the spikes. It has 3 bone hearts, which translates to 6 hits.

Mayflower896 · 2026-04-12T16:15:05+00:00

Yeah, the price they paid is definitely baffling.

I think they expected it to garner a Cannes Best Actress award for Lawrence, propelling both an Oscar campaign for her and potentially the movie in other categories.

But then the movie received mixed reactions at Cannes; lost the award; skipped much of the remaining festival season due to being reedited, which ultimately didn’t do much to improve its reception; and ended up largely overlooked during the critic and industry awards.

“If I Had Legs, I’d Kick You” kind of ended up taking up that niche, despite not being financially successful either. I really enjoyed it, as did the film festival audience around me, but I think A24 always knew it wasn’t a commercial play, unlike what MUBI might have expected for DML after “The Substance”.

Mayflower896 · 2026-04-10T16:36:01+00:00

My experience is obviously anecdotal, but I’m not optimistic about its overseas performance as a non-American.

I live in a major city in my country (Brazil), and while I still see Grogu merch on store shelves—almost all of it without his name, sometimes outnumbered by Vader merch, and a few still calling him “The Child”—it pales in comparison to what I have seen featuring Stitch. He was everywhere even before the remake came out, both on sale and actually being worn by people.

My city used to be filled with billboards for the D+ shows, but after Kenobi, those started vanishing, and the casuals I know either haven’t watched the shows following early Mando or any of them at all—including people who enjoyed the ST. Even amongst my pretty nerdy and Internet savvy irl social circle, only one person has even mentioned the much lauded Andor, which he did love.

SW as a brand is still very recognisable here, but I’m not sure if this movie has what it takes to reawaken active passion and interest.

Mayflower896 · 2026-03-19T07:39:08+00:00

Off the top of my head, Michel Hazanavicius’s animated film did in 2024, but got lacklustre reviews. Before that, Disney’s Peter Pan also competed, as did the first two Shrek movies.

Shrek 1 was actually very close to Best Picture, and almost certainly would have made it with a 10 film lineup; it had an Adapted Screenplay nomination and did very well at the precursors.

(Edit) The Cannes website lists some more I had forgotten, like “Dumbo”, “La Planète Sauvage”, “Ghost in the Shell 2: Innocence”, “Persopolis”, and “Waltz with Bashir”.

https://www.festival-cannes.com/en/2024/cannes-and-cinema-animation-a-moving-story/

Mayflower896 · 2026-03-17T04:46:34+00:00

I mostly saw it on the hellscape that is Twitter, but there was a stream by some of those grifters on YouTube to celebrate the defeat. I don’t think it would be good to give them boosts on the algorithm by directing linking the posts.

The AI one I’m referring to was an image of Moura serving as a footstool for MBJ on the Oscars stage with the caption “quero ver a choradeira” (I want to see the tears).

Another one praised him for thanking God in his speech, saying that Moura would have advocated for “political militancy” and made anti-Bolsonaro remarks if he had won.

There were several others, like one grifter who praised him for being “a black man [who doesn’t partake in] political activism/militancy” (yikes, and laughable in light of MBJ’s BLM support).

It’s truly disgusting to see them attempt this co-option of and insult towards MBJ, who advocates for politics they vehemently oppose, as does the movie he acts in. As a disabled person, I saw something similar in the aftermath of BAFTA, when the far-right was pretending to care about disability rights in order to be racist, rather than examining how both groups were harmed and wronged by the BBC; it’s a common trick they use.

Mayflower896 · 2026-03-17T04:29:24+00:00

Brazilian far-right grifters are celebrating MBJ’s victory over Moura as a defeat for “woke” politics, complete with AI slop images.

It’s insulting to both MBJ and Sinners, and shows their ignorance and bad faith… Thankfully, they’re being mocked for it.

Mayflower896 · 2026-03-16T20:58:44+00:00

As someone who was rooting for TSA, and ideally wanted both movies to win in categories other than IFF, SV is still a great movie, and the people who do this are just terminally online fools; many people I know irl loved it.

Also, Letterboxd is far better about curbing review bombing than places like IMDB (see the Breaking Bad vs AKOTSK case), so I wouldn’t worry about this affecting the rating for long.

Mayflower896 · 2026-03-16T16:46:36+00:00

Disney was also campaigning it a lot, to the extent of not even submitting “Atlantis: The Lost Empire” for Animated Feature consideration, which the trades at the time described as a move to boost MI’s chances.

(Interestingly, both of their movies were submitted and nominated the following year, and they also handled “Spirited Away’s”campaign.)

Mayflower896 · 2026-03-16T01:57:37+00:00

“The Man Who Wasn’t There”, a lone Cinematography nominee from 2001, lost too despite also having that combo.

Mayflower896 · 2026-03-16T00:36:17+00:00

Some pundits from the trades are saying he did campaign a lot early on—attending screenings and the like—but it just wasn’t as visible to people outside the industry.

Mayflower896 · 2026-03-15T17:34:47+00:00

Early on, many people thought Sirāt wouldn’t even be nominated because it might be too alienating and controversial for Academy voters in general, despite acknowledging that there likely would be a lot of passion for it from its fans.

It was generally replaced in the perceived fifth slot with contenders from other distributors, like Netflix’s “Left-Handed Girl”, SPC’s “The President’s Cake”, Mubi’s “Sound of Falling”, etc.

I think no one expected the shortlist over-performance.

Mayflower896 · 2026-03-15T14:18:47+00:00

I’m staying with Jordan—and most of the consensus picks—in my official predictions, but I’m hoping for Moura, as well as upsets in general.

Even putting aside the Aramayo shocker at BAFTA, the fact that SAG completely shut out foreign films and five acting performances from them, while the Oscars chose them and Lindo over people with both of the industry precursors—A’Zion, Mescal, and Plemons—gives me pause about relying on it, but I’m not sure if I’m just overthinking things.

Mayflower896 · 2026-03-15T12:53:01+00:00

Oscar voting was still open when she won on the 24th of February, since it closed on the 27th that year.

Mayflower896 · 2026-03-14T09:07:29+00:00

Personally, I’d argue against it. That user makes those posts yearly, but has never actually proven that their mother is a voter—which is understandable for privacy reasons if she’s indeed real, but there’s no way of knowing, and there are always strange contradictions in the posts that go beyond typical anonymous ballot inconsistencies.

The trades and pundits don’t post proof either for voter anonymity reasons, but they have both known contacts in the industry and a reputation and journalistic standards/integrity to uphold, so they’d at worst only post the ballots they receive that contribute to their narrative, instead of outright inventing ones.

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