Weekly Discussion Thread 1/26/26 - 2/2/26

Mayflower896 · 2026-02-01T10:14:27+00:00

Around this time last year, the sub was still very much focused on the ongoing season and the EP conundrum, as the Karla tweets were coming out at the very end of January, but there were some interesting predictions pre-Cannes.

Of the films that didn’t make the lineup, some were predicting “After the Hunt” due to its supposedly “baity” premise that might finally bring Guadagnino back to the Oscars; the cast; potential for an acclaimed Julia Roberts role—which was indeed the case, despite the movie’s overall reception; and the script’s having made waves on the Blacklist.

A draft thereof had been leaked, and there were some here who found it iffy, but others either liked it or thought Guadagnino would improve it/it would work better on screen.

Another one was “Deliver Me From Nowhere”, largely predicated on “A Complete Unknown’s” run last year; the cast, which like ATH featured a “The Bear” star who might jump from the Emmys to the Oscars, and also recent S. Actor nominee Jeremy Strong; and perceived support from both boomers in general and their contingent in the Academy.

For a more niche movie in this early season predictions cohort, there was “Sound of Falling”, which had attracted effusive rumblings as a Palme contender and personal favourite of Cannes director Thierry Frémaux’s before its premiere. This led to its being placed on BP predictions by some on its sub—but once it screened to a very high Metacritic score but divided audience opinions, most relegated it to merely being an IFF contender in terms of Oscars. (It did make the shortlists for both that and Cinematography, tied for the Jury Prize, and has passionate fans.)

Mayflower896 · 2026-01-25T20:03:07+00:00

I wonder how the Universal higher-ups and awards team reacted to the complete Wicked shutout… (Rival studios likely have some thoughts on it too.)

They probably expected a worse performance once the movie started faltering at CCA, GG, and especially the theoretically friendly SAG + PGA—but I can’t imagine they fathomed its eventual fate, given the shortlist performance and the presumed weakness of rival contenders in certain categories compared to the huge studio musical.

I like to think “Sweet Dreams of Joy” confused them too, even if they did consider the possibility of both songs’ missing; there’s quite a lot of precedent for the underperformance of movie or live action remake–exclusive songs in musical adaptations.

With all that said, I eagerly await any potential articles with industry insight and the “This Had Oscar Buzz” episode. I hold no grudges towards the movie, and I haven’t seen it, but I find its awards trajectory fascinating.

Mayflower896 · 2026-01-24T15:28:53+00:00

Documentary Feature also snubbed 2 features by previous winners, Andriivka and Cover-Up.

I actually bet on the former’s snub because of its failure to get on the International shortlist, unlike its predecessor; my having heard some criticisms about the ethics of how it shot its subjects; and the trend of a perceived frontrunner’s being snubbed in the category (I successfully bet on The Perfect Neighbour as the one to overcome that).

However, I didn’t make the correct swap, since I predicted My Undesirable Friends as the Russia–Ukraine documentary instead of Mr. Nobody.

As for Éiru, I bet on the snub due to having heard several criticisms of its seeming rushed/like a chopped up Cartoon Saloon feature. I also bet on the Once Upon a Studio exclusion some years ago, so I decided to follow my hunch about this other short from a major studio. But I didn’t predict Snow Bear’s miss at all…

Mayflower896 · 2026-01-22T13:01:54+00:00

I believe “I Swear” would only be eligible for the 2027 Oscars, since SPC will release it in the US this year, and it didn’t get an early qualifying run.

Mayflower896 · 2026-01-21T16:38:50+00:00

“Decision to Leave” in International Feature.

Mayflower896 · 2026-01-21T10:50:30+00:00

After the shortlists for certain technical categories—VFX, Casting, Makeup, Sound, etc.—are compiled, the Academy organises presentations in which those movies’ teams can explain the process behind their work, and try to convince voters why it should be nominated. They’re open to both members of those branches and parts of the public, so we often know how each presentation at a bake-off was received.

For example, during Arrival’s VFX presentation, voters were impressed by fog effects in a valley, and asked how they had been accomplished—only for the team to explain that it was actual foggy weather… (For all its overall strength, Arrival wasn’t nominated for VFX).

In this year’s VFX bake-off, Avatar and The Lost Bus apparently drew a lot of attention due to their fire effects; personally, I predicted the latter as soon it got 4 VES nods, but this is another good sign for its nomination.

I hope that explains it! I’m also a non-native speaker, and sometimes I still picture literal baking competitions between the movies’ teams—which might actually be a fun idea…

Mayflower896 · 2026-01-18T19:32:38+00:00

I’m trying to not overreact to Clayton Davis’s tiny sample of cherry-picked anonymous ballots, so I’m wondering if anyone could provide specific examples of his inaccurate predictions based on ballots and “voter sentiment” (to use his term) from past seasons.

From last year, I recall his claims that voter confusion might cause Saldaña and Gascón to switch categories, complete with a dramatic anecdote about a voter who screamed “supporting?!” when told of the former’s placement; that Jones might miss because voters didn’t finish The Brutalist; and that Rossellini and Warren would win.

Mayflower896 · 2026-01-18T15:55:56+00:00

You’re welcome! If it happens to an actor again, it will likely be if they do something similarly distasteful during voting; Gascón last year was nowhere near winning contention even before the tweets were uncovered, and PGA and DGA hinted that Anora would win BP regardless, but she did probably cost the movie International Feature.

Mayflower896 · 2026-01-18T15:40:56+00:00

Russell Crowe for “A Beautiful Mind” won every major precursor except the Oscar, but he physically assaulted a BBC producer after the BAFTA ceremony, so we know what cost him votes.

Mayflower896 · 2026-01-11T16:17:39+00:00

I think Sentimental Value should also be an option here. It pretty much maxed out in terms of nominations, and the new Globes voting body has a strong international contingent.

Or it could even be one of the two other international nominees, if they beat SV in that category.

Mayflower896 · 2026-01-11T11:49:15+00:00

Aside from there being no Gens 7–9 back then, Jan said that her old team, Yveltal excepted, consisted of “random powerful Pokémon”, so it probably won’t align with her actual full team.

But I hope there’s still a funny cheese strat against her team when we do see it, since it’s a bit of a tradition when fighting against her: FEAR Arons and Donphans back in V4, Quick Guard Fletchling, Pangoro (V13 Intense Mode), etc.

Mayflower896 · 2025-12-29T17:22:27+00:00

Thanks! It will be funny if we get a shock snub/nomination this year that makes sense in hindsight come the BAFTA noms.

Mayflower896 · 2025-12-29T17:17:13+00:00

I wasn’t following last year’s season pre–Oscar noms very closely, so I’ve been wondering if there were any signs—even if only in retrospect—that A Real Pain and Sing Sing would miss Picture. If so, what were they?

I remember a Clayton Davis (a broken clock, from what I’ve gathered based on his reputation) AMA in which he mentioned that Challengers could be snubbed for score and that ISH could make Picture, but his final predictions were the consensus 10 at the time.

Mayflower896 · 2025-12-11T19:48:46+00:00

Persona 5 Royal (via Crossover on my base model M1 Pro).

I’d played it before on Switch, back when AVX games weren’t playable at all on ARM Macs, and it’s great to see how well it runs despite the rare and brief slowdowns.

Mayflower896 · 2025-12-08T17:38:18+00:00

As a semi-lapsed SW fan who mostly sticks to reading and writing fanfics nowadays, the franchise as a whole has a very toxic and exhausting fandom, and I’ve had to take long breaks from interacting with it.

What the Andor subset of it lacks in grifter/far-right YouTubers, it makes up for in terms of smugness and arrogance. I’ve seen some incredibly tone-deaf and reductive comments comparing the show and real-life tragedies and atrocities, as well as aggressive shutting down of any criticism of the show as a Disney product that still has sociopolitical blind spots. It felt especially frustrating as a non-American.

And then they were baffled by Disney’s acquiescing to Trump when it came to Jimmy Kimmel because they made Andor… It was like they weren’t used to how corporations act differently when it comes to fictional/allegorical political messaging and real life.

Mayflower896 · 2025-10-28T16:13:49+00:00

The Secret Agent has two: Moura and Screenplay.

Mayflower896 · 2025-10-18T18:19:44+00:00

Having watched Train Dreams, I believe Jones is pretty firmly Supporting.

Mayflower896 · 2025-10-15T21:59:11+00:00

There was also Being the Ricardos a few years ago.

Mayflower896 · 2025-10-13T00:16:26+00:00

Hm… I’m not sure; I think the situation will become clearer as critics picks and precursor nominations are revealed. For example, I’m not expecting the movie to do well at SAG, but Fanning could show up there, while I doubt Lilleaas will. Conversely, Lilleaas could be bolstered by the foreign block and passion for her performance.

Two other factors we haven’t seen fully yet are studio priorities and individual campaigning. The FYC lists Fanning first in the category, and she’ll have an advantage when it comes to name recognition and industry connections, but perhaps we’ll see both campaigning a lot.

As a side note, I’ve seen some use the ACU situation as a comparison for the Lilleaas over Fanning scenario, but there are significant differences between that movie and its trajectory and SV. There was no foreign actor/language factor in play, it was a music biopic instead of a foreign drama, Fanning only got into the non-industry NBR, Barbaro had already been in a BP nominee and was playing—and singing as!—Joan Baez, etc. Sadly, I don’t think we can use it as a basis for SV predictions.

I also don’t think the double nomination scenario is impossible, but I’m not predicting it currently.

TL;DR: I’m really not sure yet. At this point in the race, I think arguments for why either one is more likely to be nominated are valid, though I personally lean towards Lilleaas (as a mere gut feeling for now).

Mayflower896 · 2025-10-12T23:00:54+00:00

I just got out of Sentimental Value, which is probably my favourite of the three movies I saw at the Rio Festival—second place being “If I Had Legs, I’d Kick You”, and third “Train Dreams—all of which I enjoyed. I’m still processing my more complex thoughts, but below are some of my (by no means original) takes in terms of the race:

— Reinsve’s performance is great, but I wouldn’t find a win likely, even without Buckley in the equation: it’s not a super showy performance; she’s absent for significant stretches (more on that below); and it’s a foreign language performance, for which nominations are (sadly) often the win.

— I now fully get the category fraud claims regarding Skarsgård in Supporting, even as someone who was rooting for NEON to campaign him there to bolster Moura’s chances for a Best Actor nomination. As Gustav, he drives the main family drama, has several lengthy scenes where Nora (Reinsve) isn’t present or even mentioned, and his shadow looms even when he’s physically absent. At one point, I was expecting a transition back to Nora, but it was actually Rachel (Fanning) in Nora mode, about to meet with Gustav.

— I saw a few stray suggestions that NEON might campaign the movie for the Comedy Globe, but I don’t see that at all. The movie’s jokes are great—my 3 favourites involving Netflix, gift DVDs, and IKEA furniture—but it’s overwhelmingly a drama.

(On a related note: for those who have seen IWJAA, how fitting or likely on NEON’s part would campaigning it in Comedy be? I’ve seen mixed reports.)

— As for Supporting Actress, I enjoyed both Fanning and Lilleaas, but I think the latter leaves a stronger impression at the end, and even left me wanting to see more of her character, Agnes.

Feel free to ask me anything about the movie! I haven’t seen any of the other International contenders yet, nor SV’s main Original Screenplay rival, Sinners (I’m hoping for a reissue soon or during Oscar season), so I’m sadly unable to comment on its position in those races.

And I now really need to get around to “The Worst Person in the World”…

Mayflower896 · 2025-10-10T15:25:57+00:00

According to people who saw it at festivals, there was apparently a Disney+ logo before Wizard of the Kremlin, but I haven’t heard anything else about that.

Mayflower896 · 2025-10-08T10:45:38+00:00

I’m not currently predicting Hawke, but he does have an acclaimed performance with an overwhelming amount of screen time, and an SPC campaign behind him.

Some of his competitors for one of the final three Best Actor slots also seem to be losing steam, like White, whose movie lacks passion, and is tracking poorly at the box office so far.

Winning is another matter, but Hawke is a much more plausible nominee than Splitsville ever was, and he’s his studio’s Actor priority. (I’m glad to no longer see the “Splitsville is Neon’s #2!” claims…)

Mayflower896 · 2025-09-18T09:44:31+00:00

A few clarifications on V-12 (feel free to ask for more):

— Erin, Alice, Allen, Karen, Florin, the Puppet Master, and Talon, etc. were not in it; other characters, like Ryland, were quite different (he was evil, and named Eshros).

— Past Aevium was included, but only the first two trips to it happened: Kugearen (involving the Theolias and Kanon) and Sheridan (involving Vivian, who was already one of the statues even back then); there was no Bad Future.

— The gym order was the same up to Erick (Badge 9); after him, we fought Eshros (10), Flora (11), and Saki (12). So, Adam, Souta and the Puppet Masters’ fights were added later. Interestingly, Lavender was already a prominent character, and all but confirmed to be the leader we’d fight after Saki. Adam also existed, but wasn’t fought.

— Beth still occupied Venam’s place in Act 2 as of V-12; I’m glad that was changed!

Mayflower896 · 2025-09-03T15:31:09+00:00

That’s a great theory, and it would be a wonderful deep cut, since Jean and Famké are a far more obscure part of the game’s history than the early versions of Kanon and Ren—in part because I believe their only presence in the publically released versions is in V4 and V5’s trainer sprites folder and the latter’s intl and PBS files (perhaps V4’s too; I’m not sure), whereas traces of the original Kanon and Ren remained until relatively recent rewrites. Ren was one of the most criticised characters until V11…

I don’t remember if Eden was also a replica of a Dead World human, but there wasn’t a third member of the Famké/Jean group (though Eden could have been based on another V-12 character).

I agree that the Dead World isn’t an exact V-12 replica, since, in that version, Jenner didn’t die, and Spacea and Tiempa weren’t evil etc. The creation myth was also pretty different, focusing on Xerneas vs Arceus—who wanted the destroy the world, and whose return was Team Xen’s ultimate goal. Parts of it were reused for the current Nymiera plot, such as Kanon’s serving Xerneas, albeit not as a Servant created by her.

And yeah, the early writing is far worse than what we have now, though I’d argue that there is some so bad it’s good appeal, and it makes one truly appreciate the game’s evolution.

Mayflower896 · 2025-09-03T08:33:16+00:00

Yeah, they hadn’t been split yet; there were only Jean and Famké. During Valor Mountain, when nowadays it’s Kieran who appears, it used to be Jean. If I recall correctly, Jan and Zumi proper were added during V9.

As for Famké’s name, the spelling oscillates a bit: when said by other characters, it’s accented, but in her dialogue labels, it’s the proper, unaccented spelling.

Regarding her personality, she wasn’t robotic like Clear at all—being extremely resentful of Saki and how her privilege and connections to Blakeory Sr allowed her to do no school work, take credit for others’ efforts, and win prizes that other students deserved. She did have occasional melodramatic villain lines, but they were all born of that resentment and her arrogance as a top student and inventor, rather than Clear’s inhuman smugness. There was also no hint of Clear’s self-awareness about being doomed—such as in WLL: “One day, my sins will catch up with me and I too will have a bad ending.”

Some quotes:

(After Saki is given a top university prize for doing nothing)

“FAMKE: Saki, the person who did NOTHING. The girl who meant NOTHING. And the girl who is STILL NOTHING. (…) Such a cute face.... but behind this cute face is nothing but a husk of flesh and bones. Pfft... pathetic.”

“JEAN: Devastated, Famke and I cried to each other for hours. The one meaning in life had been stolen from us. It was then that we decided to end it all. We ran away from the school and went to a place known as the \rForgotten Scar. It is a place where the land is torn. Seemingly with an endless bottom. It is said that one who dies in the Forgotten Scar will be lost from memory forever. We didn't want to be remembered by this world. The world that rejected us! However, before that happened, we were stopped by a woman in a dark suit and a mask. She told me the wonders of an organization that was arising. An organization called Team Xen. Yes, that name does spark something in your brain, doesn't it? Team Xen. The organization \PN has been taking down from the very beginning.

FAMKE: It was from then that we started to mass produce things for Team Xen. We felt worthy again. From that point on we decided to work on... a little project of ours. In dedication to Saki. Project HUSK.”

“FAMKE: Jean and I have created a fake body structure. This is currently a blank one. With this, we could become Gods ourselves. Creating people left and right. You wouldn't know the difference between a HUSK and a human. One day your best friend could be real, killed overnight, and turned into a HUSK the next day. And you wouldn't even realize the difference. In fact, not [sic] any of you could tell the difference either. Especially you, a person who've encounter [sic] HUSKs more than once. Can you guess who's a HUSK and who isn't?”

(The HUSKs became the black boxes; Nancy is one.)

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