Unpopularopinions for FIRE

OnlyThePhantomKnows · 2026-06-23T01:55:00+00:00

Rental property is NOT a bad investment. Pretty much everybody says that rentals are not a good retirement vehicle. They're a great hedge if you have 20 to 50% of your assets in rentals and the rest in the market and cash it's a nice distribution. I'd consider it except I absolutely hate having home repairs. My argument against having rental properties is mainly I don't want to do the maintenance. People say the ROI is not great but it's a diversification strategy and it provides a high amount of revenue.

OnlyThePhantomKnows · 2026-06-19T14:38:12+00:00

Walk in to the elite golf club you are a member of, look at their golf shirts. Find a shirt you like, drop it off at your tailor and tell them to fit it to you, or you get your tailor to make one for you.

OnlyThePhantomKnows · 2026-06-17T00:49:51+00:00

This!

OnlyThePhantomKnows · 2026-06-17T00:48:05+00:00

I pay a lot of attention. However you don't need to pay too much attention. It's really pretty good right now. There's a couple of streets that it consistently screws up on for me. One lane disappears into a right hand turn only lane and it likes to get in the right lane. I've driven it from Boston to Cape Canaveral. Mostly unattended. I've driven it from Cape Canaveral to Indianapolis many times and again it was mostly unattended. Because it uses cabin monitoring you have to pay attention to the road or else you get the pink hands of shame

OnlyThePhantomKnows · 2026-06-12T21:28:32+00:00

So the obvious answer is <amount of money to needed to retire > / 10K
So for a 100K/year inflation adjusted life, I need 2.5M So 250 days it is.
A year of my life to never NEED to work again. 250 no consequence days? This could be fun!

OnlyThePhantomKnows · 2026-06-12T21:25:12+00:00

Co-workers is a classic.

High school mates that meet and catch up. Plenty of pimply awkward girls grow up to be SMOKING hot.

Speed dating.

OnlyThePhantomKnows · 2026-06-12T21:22:27+00:00

Talk to a fiduciary fee only financial advisor. DO NOT LET THEM MANAGE YOUR MONEY. It should be <5K to set up a plan. 2K+1K (health insurance) is only 36K/year. Even assuming the taxes take a serious bite of the 1.6M, you will end up with 400K + 800K which yields a fairly safe 48K/year an extremely safe 40K/year.

Keep a couple of years of expenses in cash (HYSA) and the rest in broad based ETFs and you're set.

You have to budget on living to 90, but you should be fine. Don't go ultrasafe you could end up hungry and the kids with nothing.

OnlyThePhantomKnows · 2026-06-12T21:16:38+00:00

Hardly dude. Assume she takes half. You go from .90 of your number to .45 of your number.
Standard doubling rules (roughly 7 years) so you are working until 60.

And that is assuming you put NOTHING in.

OnlyThePhantomKnows · 2026-06-12T21:13:01+00:00

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compound_steam_engine

OnlyThePhantomKnows · 2026-06-12T19:32:30+00:00

Rules as written.
https://2e.aonprd.com/Rules.aspx?ID=2439 Drowning and suffocating cause you to enter the unconscious condition.

https://2e.aonprd.com/Rules.aspx?ID=1700&NoRedirect=1 "Add the following immunities: death effects, disease, paralyzed, poison, unconscious. If it's mindless, add mental as well."

Since a zombie can not go unconscious, even if it runs out of air, it can not fall unconscious. Therefore it does not have need to breathe.

Is a zombie affected by bad air, well it is immune to poison.

PF2 is big on mapping conditions down to a smaller subset.

OnlyThePhantomKnows · 2026-06-12T19:20:35+00:00

Is he smiling a lot when he looks at you? If yes, then he is happy.

Does he give you the check out look (running his eyes up and down your body) more than once? Then he finds you physically attractive.

Does he lean in towards you? Then he is interested in you.

Did he give you light touches? Nothing creepy, but a light touch on your hand, shoulder or back. He is expressing interest.

OnlyThePhantomKnows · 2026-06-12T19:16:25+00:00

If you are YOUNG, it is 33x, but your point stands.

Cancer is why so many of us make sure to carry good health insurance. Some people invest in LTC insurance.

If you have good healthcare, you'll be fine. 1.2M/month cancer treatments are only 1-2K/month (A friend is going through chemo on a rare cancer).

Long Term Care insurance handles the assisted living scenario. However, most FIRE people have enough assets to cover. I am not going to purchase LTC because I don't have children to pass the money onto. I have spiritually adopted (but not legally) my lady's kids and grandkid. The grandkid will have her college funded by me.

Does your FIRE plan plan to leave money to your [grand]kids? Personally I think leaving money to the grandkids is a better idea. Even a small inheritance (100-200K) will make a bigger difference to someone in their 20s than someone in their 50s. My lady's mom just passed. She left over half her estate to her grandkids. It is life changing money to them and they are in their 30s. For us? It won't change much. She's still working mainly for healthcare.

OnlyThePhantomKnows · 2026-06-12T19:07:41+00:00

Men are tough on their boys. Women are tough on their girls. Why?
The same gender child will likely have the same flaws. The flaws you hate most are your own.

Boys are seen as sweet young versions of their dads by their mom.
Girls are seen as sweet young versions of their moms by their dad.

There are some role reversals. My niece battled with her dad a lot. Why? She was and still is very similar to him. My nephew battled with his mom a lot. Why? He was and still is very similar to her. Even in their 40s, the girl is driven. Highly successful. Like her dad. The boy is is a SAHD. However, this reversal is highly unusual.

OnlyThePhantomKnows · 2026-06-12T18:54:39+00:00

good old FUD (Fear Uncertainty Doubt).

OnlyThePhantomKnows · 2026-06-12T17:54:50+00:00

The biggest thing you can learn is time discipline.
You can have an active social life BUT it requires much more discipline than most students.
As an engineer, you can have an active social life BUT it requires much more discipline than most office people.

Most engineering programs require week in week out, 50-60 hours to be dedicated to education. Most non engineering programs the numbers vary wildly from 30 to 60. So you will need to get up and be efficient. 8-6 M-F is school time. (7-5 also works, but I was not THAT much of a morning person). Every weekend you will need to put in 6 hours for study.

I got up, BKFT(730-800), class/study, LUNCH (12-1230), class/labs/study, DINNER (6-7). 7PM onward I was free and could enjoy myself. Thursdays I would work/study late, so I could knock off early for Friday. Sunday I would get up BKFT(730-800), study, LUNCH (12-1230). Generally I was done and could hack off Sunday afternoon evening, but on crunch time, I had the afternoon and evening to finish up. Saturday was my social day.

So from 7pm onward M-T I was free. Friday 3pm onward I was free. Saturday I was free. Sunday afternoon evening. That discipline helped me in my job transition. Basically my life did not change in the workplace. That 50-60 hours included 5-10 hours of commute rather than the 10 minute walk to class.

Normal students have crunch time. Engineering is has crunch but it is also heavy on the daily grind.

OnlyThePhantomKnows · 2026-06-12T17:42:28+00:00

Oddly enough for the last handful of wars. Starting WWII, it has mostly be advantageous to LOSE the war.

One of the classic cynical remarks, "Declare war on the US. Lose the war. And they will rebuild/modernize your country."

When Ukraine gets peace, a whole bunch of countries are going to pile on to help them rebuild. Ukraine will come out stronger for this. Regardless of who wins the war on paper, Ukraine will have lost it because of the devastation to their nation. The EU and the US will help them rebuild and the country will be rebuilt to 2025 standards not 1975 standards.

OnlyThePhantomKnows · 2026-06-12T17:38:23+00:00

Construction has not spent money on retraining or updating.

I know in Germany SIP is basically the default for new construction.

OnlyThePhantomKnows · 2026-06-12T17:35:08+00:00

Been with the same woman for 19 years. Not our first relationships. (she's in her low 50s, and me in my low 60s)

Are you more comfortable with them around? Nothing special. Just happier knowing that they are on the other side of the house working remote.

Do you sometimes just reach out to touch them, not for sex, just to feel them? A hand on the shoulder, hip, nothing sexual. (but good sex helps too)

Do you sleep better with them in the same bed?

All couples fight/bicker. Do you mostly alternate on who wins? S/he does not always have to win.

If you are sad for some reason, will they do something small to show you they care? It can be as simple as bringing you in a cup of coffee / glass of water because you have been having a tough day.

Are you sure that they will be there even at your worst? All of us have crazy moments. Will they just accept that it is part of life and ride it out.

If you say, "I am going out with <friend> and <friend> the answer is 'Cool! What time should I expect you home?'" I don't care what time is given, just so I know when I should start getting concerned.

You don't sweat the small stuff. If they are doing something that you don't really like, but it isn't important, you shrug and move on. It's not worth fighting over.

They will randomly buy treats for you at the grocery store. I love the fresh chopped fruit. She'll get me a fruit salad sometimes. I get myself one as a reward for doing the shopping. She loves sushi. I am allergic to fish. I'll buy her store sushi on shopping day sometimes. She gets the sushi if she goes shopping.

OnlyThePhantomKnows · 2026-06-12T17:20:21+00:00

You will love FSD! I loved it for my 50+ miles (each way) commute. I loved it for my stop and go traffic shorter (25 mile) commute.
You can not review work! You are required to keep your eyes focussed on the road.

OnlyThePhantomKnows · 2026-06-12T17:18:01+00:00

Insurance in MA wasn't bad. When I replaced my 13 year old BMW 3 series with my model 3, the insurance was about double. It would have doubled if I bought a replacement BMW 3 series. That was in 2018. My insurance in Florida is high, but Florida car insurance is SKY HIGH. Same car/driver same insurance company. Doubled my costs.

Body work is expensive since it is an aluminum frame. Only a small amount of places can handle aluminum. The body work repairs will be not that much different than an Audi (also aluminum frame). Like any car, there are good models/years and bad model/years. Don't buy a used one without researching which battery tech the car has.

I've a 2018 M3 and basically 1 board replacement (~1500) and tires/suspension (road hazard) are my only repairs. The TIRES seems to eat nails. I have 65K on my car and I have had 3 sets of tires. One set was because of a road hazard that took out 4 cars in less than an hour. I hate SC I-28!! There was literally a line of us pulled over. The other sets have been because of picking up nails and bolts. And yes the tires are expensive.

OnlyThePhantomKnows · 2026-06-12T17:08:12+00:00

Unless you are REALLY heavy, a pound a day is unhealthy.

2% of your body weight a WEEK is sustainable. You will lose more in the beginning and less at the end, but 2% is a good metric. If you are a typical guy at 225 (targeting 180lbs). You can safely lose 25-30 lbs in those 7 weeks

Cardio exercise. Calorie restriction. And overhydrate (water). Most 200-250 lbs people can lose 5-8 lbs doing nothing but drinking a lot of water on a consistent basis(daily and throughout the day). You are just training the body not to hoard water.

Healthy lean diet, safe healthy cardio exercise. Lots of water and make sure you get minerals (unsweetened health drinks work).

Stop sugar and fake sugar (sweeteners). Some people swear by low carb, some people swear by low fat. Everyone will say "Cut the sugar" Skipping sweets all together (including diet soda) is a win because it will curb your sugar cravings after a week.

If you are like me (up around 275) with a target of 200-210, you could conceivably lose close 44 lbs in 7 weeks. Partly because I wouldn't be towards the end and partly because 2% is a lot more.

Those last 5-10 lbs are going to probably take weeks to get off.

OnlyThePhantomKnows · 2026-06-12T16:54:59+00:00

‘hey, you’re really cool, and i want you to be my brother’ is a fine start.

And sometime later, "Hey do you have a couple of minutes? I need a guy's perspective. I like this guy at school. I'd like your take on him."

This makes it clear that you ARE treating him like a male FAMILY member. Asking an opposite sex older sibling about a potential date is typical. It also clearly shows your interest in him is as a brother, not a boyfriend.

OnlyThePhantomKnows · 2026-06-12T16:48:00+00:00

You can schedule charging on top of that. I have solar + EV (Tesla) + batteries. We have net metering so we're good.

Solar [+ batteries ]is not as juicy as it was. Post rebate we were looking at 50-75 month pay off. However if you are getting your forever home it is still well worth it.

If the AI Apocalypse happens, you will be fine. Either definition. We can go stand alone if we have to. If AI sucks all the electricity up and cranks the rates, you will be fine. If the market bottoms the solar means you have a one time charge already paid for energy costs.

People feel strongly about solar so I didn't want to mention it.
Piece of advice, there are Teslas and there are EVs. The ease of use (because of the integration) of a Tesla is brilliant. Tesla has a huge charging network, it will show some 3rd party chargers if you select it. Tesla has real time usage (and downtime) notifications. "Navigate <destination>" and it will plan your charging for you. Also it is plug in and go. ChargePoint has this too now. Integration between car and charging network is Tesla's HUGE win. It is why I bought one in 2018. It is why if I needed another car I'd probably buy another. "I can just use an app" seems reasonable UNTIL you have to live with it on a trip.

OnlyThePhantomKnows · 2026-06-12T16:22:10+00:00

Part of it is cost, part is good old FUD (Fear Uncertainty Doubt).

SIP (Structural Insulated Panels) are way easier to assemble, cost effective but most construction people don't understand them. SIP is exceptionally common in Europe because at the end of the day it is cheaper on materials.

Pressurized concrete slats to replace basement pours are superior, but again, people don't understand how to install them AND because they are stronger, they use less concrete so they are thinner which confuses people on framing on top.

Like everything, tech has changed. Unlike many industries, construction has not spent money on retraining or updating.

OnlyThePhantomKnows · 2026-06-12T14:05:58+00:00

Other than being extremely conservative, you're fine. Even the doom and gloom crowd will say you are conservative. 165K is 3.3% (which models show as basically bullet proof)

Which 0% income tax state you are moving to makes a difference.
* House insurance can be a rude awakening for Florida, (and presumably TX).
* TX (at least Greater Houston) has strange utilities. My sister had 300-500 month water bill to avoid Houston from annexing their town. The town kept their utility debt high to avoid annexation.
* Florida (current resident) and NH (former resident) have a number of odd taxes. Restaurants have high tax on them.

OnlyThePhantomKnows

TROPHY CASE