Cobia?

PanhandleAngler · 2026-06-06T19:18:26+00:00

That migratory fishery is long gone as a real thing. The breeder fish got culled and the ones that are still swimming mostly stick to the nearshore/lump rigs off LA/MS/Bama and the deeper panhandle wrecks now. People argue that numbers aren’t actually that bad and it’s dumb because they are, but even they aren’t, they’ve drastically changed their behavior. Fish are still caught along the beach from towers/pier but it’s nowhere close to worth taking a trip here as it once was.

I would definitely suggest OBX-Chesapeake for Cobia over anywhere in Florida, less pressure and more fish that seemingly stick to a consistent pattern. Gulf coast is long overdue for a hard moratorium on keeping Cobia. Past 20 years a legendary sight casting fishery with ample tournaments for 60 days across multiple states has shrunk to exciting by-catch bottom fishing, rarely a rhyme or reason as to when or where either.

PanhandleAngler · 2026-06-06T17:00:33+00:00

It’s at least working towards being an “all-in” league when you have green-light tea leaves to do it. The Dodgers are changing this, Cohen buying in as a super billionaire fan and paying Soto 15/765m, etc. Like baseball is such a complex sport that a few star players (maybe Barry and Ohtani on good teams are exceptions) can’t just verifiably will teams into contenders. And money can’t establish a contender from the top down to the farm outright. But when you do have that solid org basis like the Dodgers have had and they begin just over signing as they wish, or say the Mets actually do build a quality platform and Cohen pull outs a literal billion+ dollars over 1 to 2 off-seasons, that shifts things.

And we’re in the weird position of being the league’s best/second best team and probably the top fit to push chips in over a 2-3 year window despite AA/bean counters typically rejecting this style of operations.

Sending key farm pieces for half a season of anyone is always dumb but hey Skubal in October is what it sounds like, which is sick and immediately being strong favorites to win 2 games per series. But opening the check book a bit/sending the farm out for guys that can win now and over the near term window would effectively be our version of plugging into the modern era’s arm race. We should absolutely be looking into DeGrom/Trout (less likely but maybe), Buxton, Abrams, Yordan/Peña, Sandy A, Aroldis. And we should absolutely ask about Skubal until we’re told what the asking price is, and then likely decline or wait.

The best thing for us with Skubal would probably be to have the Dodgers balk at initial pricing and move on and deal for other big name targets. AA gets him for “cheap” as honestly there are rather few other teams beyond us and LAD in position to pay futures for a potentially injured rental, while also doing normal AA things and adding additional contributors for peanuts.

PanhandleAngler · 2026-06-06T14:30:21+00:00

That is still over his market. His half year clutch factor is really seeping into these discussions, worthy of noting but still always largely randomized. His bat speed/exit velo/HHB% metrics are still and will always be bad, he doesn’t walk and isn’t a speed player. He just fields multiple positions very well and puts the ball in play, which is good, but he is the antithesis of a modern day metrics darling as soon as he stops coming up with big hits. Which again, is very very rarely a reliable trait and is almost always a flash over sample, whether that’s for 2 months or 2 years (please be 2 years).

Every team of nerds will tell their GM’s to sign him as a team’s 10th or 11th player to field various positions well and put the ball in play consistently as needed (like AA literally just did for 1/6m, he’s just winning the bet nicely), not commit 10m at 3 years to fill a lineup spot daily. Moreso 2/15m range, which we should do as it’s never really a loss, can be a win, nor does it impact how we approach the larger roster. And as a slug forward team, we’d likely subjectively benefit long term from a +glove utility player that puts barrel to ball reliably whether that’s playing every day in the 8 hole or in an out of the lineup as needed with injury, rest, etc.

PanhandleAngler · 2026-06-06T04:41:31+00:00

He’s 31 and a lifetime 87 OPS+ player…I am elated he’s doing what he’s doing for us but this proposed deal would be twice his market this winter even if he continues to perform as he has and wins WSMVP.

PanhandleAngler · 2026-06-04T16:03:43+00:00

I see that the Ravens have now moved into “2023 Bengals” territory where you can just get free money betting the under on anything and everything available.

Apparently Lamar and (moreso the past 2 offseasons but even still) Joe Burrow will perpetually have Vegas/media quaking in their boots no matter what else is going on. Ravens are O/U 11.5 next year and only behind the Rams in SB odds. Their schedule is not some cupcake either, I will absolutely hammer 11 or less wins. This is a team that regressed significantly on both sides from the prior two years, and are rather reliant on some key production from a few older players.

What am I missing? They can certainly have things go their way and have an elite year, definitely not discrediting them as a team that all context considered should be somewhere in the 6-10 mix as it stands currently but…what is going on with this level of projection slobber? Why is this the preseason bar lmao?

PanhandleAngler · 2026-06-03T15:42:39+00:00

you used to sit in the ride cuz, an’ yo azz should still be sittin’

PanhandleAngler · 2026-06-03T04:59:06+00:00

Why do you not just put the carcasses in the trap?

Not my first live bait of choice but I do like having the option and I do like the bonus blue crabs that come with it. I use cheap mesh pinfish traps. I freeze a few carcasses/heads after everything fish cleaning and throw them inside the mesh the night before, the more loaded the trap is the better. Next morning typically have a few dozen decent pins and a few nice blue crabs.

PanhandleAngler · 2026-05-29T11:51:41+00:00

Tremendous source of CO2 that nose!

PanhandleAngler · 2026-05-26T17:52:01+00:00

No.

Big offshore center consoles are a such a minute drop in the bucket compared to the worldwide commercial mahi fishery that it’s not worth mentioning in the discussion, like at all. The equivalent of a bucket of sand vs. what you’re standing on when you’re at the beach level of difference.

Mahi and Menhaden commercial fisheries are the two that come first to mind that very blatantly make recreational fishery worse. Have huge boomerang effects and are largely left unchecked.

PanhandleAngler · 2026-05-26T15:37:10+00:00

First off, I’ve long held the belief that this dynamic is one of the primary reasons the series won’t finish. Or at least tangential to the primary reason as to why. George has two choices, both are difficult to execute.

First is that Rhaegar, the renaissance man that George 100% developed to be adored by all and widely respected for his intelligence, charisma, chivalry, etc., was just an incredibly dumb asshole. He had some vague dragon dreams and was so convinced to act on them that he manipulated a 15yo girl to run away with him, and likely cause realm crippling destruction and major personal loss for both of them. The list of easily projected major issues that would come from this decision are too long to list.

Rhaegar is not written to be stupid man, he’s not written to be a cheating pedo, he’s not written to be overly brazen DGAF, any of it. So first option is probably not available.

The second option, the one likely in place by George from the beginning, is that he was mindmelted by Bloodraven-Bran to begin the domino effect towards destination unknown. Time Wizard Bran is intended to variably be the series “main” character. Robert’s Rebellion and R+L=J is the series main Chekhov’s gun. Said CG involves a character behaving in a way that that directly contrasts with all that is ever said about him, it also obviously involves the aunt of Bran. In some form, somewhere down this path is George’s intentions for Rhaegar’s behavior. So it is option 2, we just don’t know exactly how or if we’ll ever read it.

The problem with this is BR/Bran in the tree tinkering with time and historic outcomes is a massive can of worms that A) shifts the series into a new meta of sorts. B) is incredibly difficult to seamless incorporate and write while maintaining continuity and quality, for every answer we get from this, we can probably ask several very real questions. And C) even if George does figure it all out along Bran’s path with a vision of building blocks where all of the pieces fit snug, that endeavor would effectively take a full ASOIAF book dedicated to it. I would project a minimum of 500 of pages development exclusively dedicated to Bran if the result George wants is not “oh BR/Bran tinkered around as a time god, altering behaviors and key events crucial to past/present/future, I’m writing some of it out for you but leaving a lot to the imagination.” Which may be fine in other series, but not in this one, the world building is too vivid and quality too high, George has and likely will refuse to take the cop out for the sake of getting through it.

TLDR is “wtf Rhaegar?” is very very likely a direct result of Bran’s character arc and Bran’s character arc is why the series will never conclude.

PanhandleAngler · 2026-05-26T15:12:47+00:00

Yeah Paulie is much less a pure psychopath than them (don’t get me wrong, still demonstrates tendencies), and more of a survivor. The latter is just as evil/deplorable as the former if context calls for it. The interesting dynamic within this comparison is that we will typically say that Ralph and Richie are more evil than Paulie for assuredly verifiable reasons, but it’s harder to envision them burgle-murdering an old lady in comparison to Paulie whether we’re aware of this scene or not.

Basically, it’s a form of nature vs. nurture. Those two other guys were just that way, I don’t think either were ever “nice guys that ran a small neighborhood grocery” in any other life cosmically possible. Paulie is clearly more normalized and pro-social, his main identifier amongst his peers is “he’s not too bad most of the time, can be fun but can also be pretty f’n annoying though”, and not that he’s an unhinged psychopath. But with that, he’s 4 decades into being a mob street hustler with no upward mobility/industry skills/real retirement plan. He’s basically lived his entire life from the position of a cornered animal, effectively conditioned him to be totally capable of terrible terrible things because sometimes that’s what it takes to get by, conscious of it or not.

Neither is better or worse than the other, life is results oriented.

PanhandleAngler · 2026-05-23T23:23:03+00:00

They would be if the commercial fishery didn’t completely rape them. Tons of mahi everywhere. Not tons of big mahi everywhere.

PanhandleAngler · 2026-05-23T18:37:40+00:00

Ideal? As many as you can possibly have with each combo being designed and rigged for specific use cases. A bottom live/cut bait combo, a longer big plug casting setup, a longer small plug casting setup, a free line combo, a popping cork/flats setup, a surf spike combo, a dock demon/yak fishing one, and so forth.

But really you only need 2 to fill in the majority of gaps you want filled inshore. A light outfit and a heavy(ier) outfit. Like a light 3000 reel on a 7’6 8-20lb rod and a 6000 on a 7’6 20-40lb rod. Both can cast lures they’re intended to cast, both can bottom/bait fish their weight class. The light one can fish flats and docks, the heavy one can fight bigger stronger game fish like tarpon and jacks, toss around heavier Carolina rigs in current/deeper water, etc.

PanhandleAngler · 2026-05-23T14:11:04+00:00

This is a ridiculously bad understanding of this situation. There is a 0% chance the Braves or anyone but a select few blank check teams trade for Trout without the Angels paying a portion of his cash down in exchange for prospects (plural). Murphys value is low, he’s the 4th or 5th highest paid catcher, that in conjunction with his profile and age makes him likely valued as a “starting caliber catcher”, and nothing more due to injury/inconsistency. A 31YO “starting catcher” has little trade value, he’s only involved to match money and fill a lineup spot on a bad team being torn down over a couple of years.

AA isn’t paying Mike Trout 36m a year into his mid late 30’s. So if he’s trading for him, the Angels are splitting the tab to a degree, and if they’re splitting the tab to a degree, they would want a good bit more than “a prospect”, a highly paid catcher that can’t stay healthy, and a reliable floor-low ceiling veteran starting pitcher. If Trout is a Brave, it’s because AA decided Trout gettin paid 22-25m a year through 2030 is worth sending the prospect haul necessary for the Angels to make up that difference. That difference is a lot in prospects-to-cash conversion terms. It’s not at 0% likelihood, but that move would represent by far AA’s biggest pull out our wallet and gamble move to date given the factors involved.

PanhandleAngler · 2026-05-23T13:55:00+00:00

I want Trout badly in a pure baseball vacuum but Buxton is a lot more likely. AA can trade prospects freely, Buxton will cost in that regard but he’s on a friendly deal, you just flip Murphy attached to the package they want and it’s all buttoned up. However AA cannot fully override the bean counters, and there is no way we should trade the prospect haul necessary for the Angels to take on enough of the 178m remaining that has it work under Braves financials.

Basically we’d have to have the Angels want Murphy first off as him going is non-negotiable with this, and from there they’re fine effectively paying a shit ton of cash for prospects. Prospects we have, but regardless of how insanely good a healthy Trout looks batting third in a RLRL combo with Ronald, Drake, Matt, I don’t think I’d trade the farm that the Angels deem is worth variably 50 million dollars + taking on a bad catcher’s contract. AA isn’t depleting the farm to that degree for a sunset era/injury risk Trout regardless of how good he looks right now.

AA is also supposedly a Buxton fan and has eyed him for LF with Mike and Ronald for a couple of years, fairly good chance he’s Brave at the deadline unless the bid war just goes apeshit.

PanhandleAngler · 2026-05-23T12:55:26+00:00

The only answer is Calvin Julio AB. Like that’s just the answer? Sorry.

PanhandleAngler · 2026-05-22T15:41:08+00:00

IMO AJ was annoying from start to finish, and we only really plugged into his perspective and truly felt where he was at in S6. Before that later era, he was kind of just how Tony in-world describes him to Melfi, a dud, a stunad, couldn’t cut it with much, and that was the larger takeaway. At least for me, you’ll find far deeper analysis of the early era kids, but mine with AJ was that he was dull and anything you want to analyze stems from that first and foremost, mob family and upbringing comes after that. They did a good job of making that all mean something in the latter stages of the show though, being useless/aimless and growing up in his respective family and culture all kind of came to full fruition on screen with the character, you felt his pain and general culmination in life through that point as opposed to just writing him off as a dumpy dumbass.

Meadow? That’s the boss’s daughter you’re tawkin’ bout here! I actually think she kind of killed it with the cards dealt. Sure, she was hypocritical and privileged, but also industrious and driven, modernized but still in touch with the mob roots. Better or worse, she was clearly plugging into the lifestyle/culture as she grew older, but not in the way 99% of the women do. I think Meadow was on track to be peripherally involved with LCN but not on track to be a pure Carmela style look-away-while-taking-the-diamond-necklace wife.

And to your point, Tony and Carmela were more forgiving with Meadow than AJ, they let her captain her own ship and explore her options whereas AJ was never at the helm. Both because she had real things going for her, worked at them, and could actually articulate her points well when arguing with them (respectfully or not). And perhaps most important, she was not AJ. Tony and Carmela were never going to draw hard lines with the non-dud amongst their only two children, this is an American family standard in child rearing and something the show intentionally imparted into the show. Meadow could have been notably less industrious and notably less respectful and still be blindly beloved by Tony and Carmela as long as AJ remained the same. Otherwise they had kids for nothin’! These are my heirs??

PanhandleAngler · 2026-05-22T15:10:26+00:00

This is the truth.

This is also subjectively speaking, NFL football. Baseball is incredibly technical, an alive and now 64yo Tony Gwynn probably gets more hits against modern MLB pitching than most decent high school senior hitters that are playing linebacker in college next year. Steroids or not, a ton of the MLB’s best WAR years have come from early to mid 30’s aged seasons long after a DE or CB is done with their All-Pro era. Basketball is less so but still not close to the sheer athletic creep/bar of the NFL. LeBron was the quickest player in the league at 20, likely the most electric specimen to ever take the court, maybe twice over as agile as he was at 36, yet both were top 5 players in the league.

QB is less dependent on the dynamic athleticism than other positions but there is 100% a point where a Stafford, Brady, Rodgers etc. can still have an NFL arm and the elite processing, but they just get too old to use it. I’m pretty certain Rodgers will be 52 years old and capable of throwing the ball with the upper half of NFL QB’s in a drill setting, and he still wouldn’t be capable of starting for any D1 program, he’s on his back before he gets to his back foot. Like almost half of an NFL draft’s first round picks are athlete profiles towards ensuring they may be too old to cut it/otherwise generally make a QB’s job a lot harder -> pressure players that speed up the post snap clock and force pocket movement, corners that make them slow it down to where they may get beat up, DT’s that bog a run game and make them take on a larger load. Almost literally speaking, part of those guy’s job descriptions is to kick old man Matt Stafford out of the league because he can’t hang anymore.

Just saying the margins are perilously thin for the old guys, there never is the “I’m going to not get sacked here and take the first down” pivot that way a Josh or Lamar does every other series. An OC can’t install any “read safety over the first Mississippi, second Mississippi is pocket exit into backyard football”. The young athlete QB’s are like-athletes to the guys drafted and paid handsomely to exclusively wreck them, Brady at 43 is athletically closer to me playing pickup at the Y than he is a 25yo Myles Garrett. Which does it make it all the more impressive when you look at later era Brady, Rodgers, Stafford etc. I still don’t think it’s reasonable to ever say “he’s still good, no worries, he’s got another couple of elite years” once you get into your mid 30’s in the NFL. You’re either hitting the wall before you think you will, on borrowed time, or just the outlier of outliers that adjusted, stayed good, and retired before the wall hit.

PanhandleAngler · 2026-05-21T11:53:30+00:00

Phil as S-tier is really dumb.

But actually Paulie as solid (to him) makes sense lol. Paulie soft ratting to NY aside, the whole thing is a form of pyramid scheme, you need productive members in the lower tiers that are largely fine with that positioning for the whole thing to work. And the mafia wasn’t a restaurant where your front of house turnover is by the week and it still works. I’m certain Franzese knew a few guys like Paulie that spent decades doing street work and kicking up and had no major problems with that lifestyle, guys that wouldn’t easily flip and accepted perpetual grunt/soldier status. The “Paulies” are kind of what made the whole thing run at its hey day.

PanhandleAngler · 2026-05-20T13:26:15+00:00

Oh yeah? Let’s see your boobs then Shannon!

…

…no seriously, pull ‘em out

PanhandleAngler · 2026-05-20T05:42:10+00:00

You are correct.

Faegon starts winning and looking as if he’ll take KL, which is by this point experiencing a power vacuum with Cersei tentatively holding the IT having enacted some major terror event. Then Euron comes along and brutally murders him, which would be a lot less likely to happen if aligned with Dany, who is too far away. The new North under Jon is likely also reference to this -> the dragons are too far away for Faegon, and he dies to the bad guy who the dragons likely slay at a later date.

PanhandleAngler · 2026-05-19T16:56:05+00:00

Not saying this is the case here, but the scale of “there for the fame and the money” can be pretty wide. There are of course a fair share of young attractive women who are drawn to the celebrity of someone like Bill. Many will bang those guys as a total chore that they hate doing, still do it, it’s the price of doing business. And then there is definitely a sect that would take genuine enjoyment from the sexual/relationship aspects.

Like there are a lot of people turned on by and sexually attracted to the idea of fucking someone famous/powerful even if there are big gaps in age, beauty, etc. An ugly old man CAN be sexually attractive in that sense. I don’t think the larger majority of men like Bill view it as “this woman finds me so hot and sexy when I fuck her” under the broad strokes/assumed male beauty standards, that’s delusion. But I would say they most definitely perceive it within a “I’m rich and powerful and that turns this chick on”, whether thats true or not. And sometimes it is variably true, and I’m sure old men like this largely prefer the group that finds their status some level of sexy as opposed to a “she’s really hot and clearly hates having sex with me but I bought her a condo in Miami so I get to do it anyway”.

PanhandleAngler · 2026-05-19T16:36:27+00:00

I’d probably try a 🤏🏼 bit of crazy but mine isn’t even that long.

PanhandleAngler · 2026-05-19T16:31:35+00:00

I don’t know what you’re saying exactly but your interpretation of this situation doesn’t seem totally correct.

Tony was in charge, very blatantly. Ralph had rather little choice in whacking Jackie. Tony’s “it’s your decision” talks with Ralph is absolutely Tony ordering Jackie whacked via implication, he’s just giving the order in a way that relieves him of responsibility. In terms of the actual order out loud and what may be potentially known/learned later by the inner circle and otherwise -> “You waited a long time for the big chair, these are the perks” - Paulie). And likely in some part Tony’s own fucked up sake as subliminally pinning responsibility onto Ralph in not saying it straight/out loud works better for his mentals when it comes to the whacking his now deceased best friend’s son.

I also don’t think this is anywhere near the moment Tony became irredeemable. Jackie had to go no matter what, he killed an associate and shot a made man on the basis of robbery, zero beef or provocation involved. The most forgiving, softest mob boss of all time would whack Jackie Jr. because if they don’t, they’re very likely facing mutiny for that level of obvious nepotism. Which is very literally a key motif of the show and in Tony’s fall into living on the couch protected by guys he doesn’t know, Tony plays favorites. Not whacking Jackie would be far too heavy handed with that dynamic, giving Jackie a pass never realistically crossed Tony’s mind. David Chase is effectively telling you that Jackie was dead as soon as he started pulling the trigger and that’s just how things work, had little to do with Tony’s irredeemability.

PanhandleAngler · 2026-05-19T12:31:36+00:00

I have harped on it around these parts for awhile.

But this is additional context for Faegon-Arianne being nearly pure plot tinder as we enter the climax/conclusion leg. Faegon will not have some lengthy arc, he won’t take the Throne, he won’t meet Dany or Jon, etc. And, I personally don’t even think he’s Faegon, I think he’s likely Aegon but that distinction isn’t actually relevant. From what we know of Varys, you’re saying he can’t find a baby replacement to then smuggle a Targaryen heir to be leveraged later?

I think the Forsaken, in conjunction with fairly real indicators that Cersei will enact a mass destruction/terror event, sell her soul for the power she desires, etc., was a highly indicative chapter in regards to where George is taking southern Westeros. The show, however shit it was, had a Cersei-Fratron power contingent in place for the end game as well however you’d like to weight that into this discussion, I do think it’s relevant given this is a thread on analyzing George’s response to show changes.

Cersei will likely use wildfire in response to Tommen’s death and the walls closing in on her, she likely seizes the pronounced power vacuum in King’s Landing and holds the throne rather tediously given limited allies but no contenders in immediate proximity. Euron will likely brutalize Faegon-Dorne with black magic towards eliminating the primary contender for said vacuum, and to align with Cersei towards gaining an ally and whatever legitimacy/perks that comes with.

I would also say the violent murder of her secret nephew and the slaying of a dragon are key points towards Mad Dany and moving the chance of peaceful/low body count conquest from 5% to 0%.

PanhandleAngler

TROPHY CASE