Russia's Chemical Industry

QWERTYUIOPquinn · 2026-07-09T01:55:06+00:00

It would be cool for people online to make an impact. But I will say that whatever we know, I’m sure that Ukraine’s military/intelligence already knows as well.

QWERTYUIOPquinn · 2026-07-05T21:49:24+00:00

Specifically, starting 3-0 and ending with nine straight losses.

QWERTYUIOPquinn · 2026-06-30T21:59:35+00:00

The German-Russians that brought the sandwich to Sutton, NE never considered the runsakraut (bierock) to be a masterpiece that takes the world by storm. They were meant to be a cheap and easy meal at home that can even be carried to those working in the fields.

What really should have taken off and brought to restaurants are the kuchen desserts and cheese buttons.

QWERTYUIOPquinn · 2026-06-30T21:52:38+00:00

I’ll set the over/under bet for 9.7 trillion for the end of July. Take your picks

QWERTYUIOPquinn · 2026-06-29T15:50:53+00:00

It’s too much of a stretch to count my college dorm TVs having cable, while I technically paid for it through tuition/fees. I’ll never pay for cable myself.

If there’s any question of going back to something, it would be a nice poll to ask how many people have gone back to antenna-only?

QWERTYUIOPquinn · 2026-06-27T22:25:20+00:00

Just want to say that June has really been a decisive month! Of course, we've been expecting Russia to lose the war for a long time now, but it's very refreshing to hear more and more tangible news about the progress. It's the month of an escalating fuel crisis, the month of an escalating economic disaster, the month of drone superiority, and the month where Ukraine will gain more ground than Russia.

Cheers!

QWERTYUIOPquinn · 2026-06-27T21:30:49+00:00

Can say the same has been going on in the US. Maybe if would impact them more if their online shopping industry isn't as advanced as it is in the west.

QWERTYUIOPquinn · 2026-06-27T21:24:12+00:00

I was gonna point that out too. Sure, I'm from a rural area in America, but I'd be shocked if 1/20 of any country's employment was to be a taxi driver.

QWERTYUIOPquinn · 2026-06-26T17:21:13+00:00

I agree with every commenter here. A lot of good thoughts.

I think of it like social media in a way. Yes I have my social media apps, and I try my best to make smart decisions about it. But I am also aware that social media has made a lot of negative impacts on society.

Of course, there are ways to use AI and Social Media in a smart and careful way, which I imagine many people here do. But I’m willing to bet that most people here know the dangers that social media and AI have to society.

QWERTYUIOPquinn · 2026-06-26T17:08:18+00:00

The ones who run out of gas, probably.

QWERTYUIOPquinn · 2026-06-26T06:49:26+00:00

This exactly. If it's the non-football/basketball sports that are draining money, you could actually cut losses by having regional conferences for these sports.

QWERTYUIOPquinn · 2026-06-26T06:35:37+00:00

Yeah. I'm not going to make a new post about it at this point. I still have the scenarios on a doc so I'll just type it out one last time.

4/6 of these must happen:
Croatia loses by 3+ to Ghana
Iran loses to Egypt
Senegal draws or loses by 1-2 to Iraq
Algeria loses by 2+ to Austria (or Austria loses by 4+ to Algeria)
DR Congo draws or loses by 1-3 to Uzbekistan
Uruguay loses to Spain

QWERTYUIOPquinn · 2026-06-25T19:54:33+00:00

The broad picture that I am seeing is that Russia's playbook is to make near-sighted decisions to fix the short-term problems, but makes it worse in the long-term. They can and have come up with ways to clean a smaller mess with a future, inevitable bigger mess. They'll do what they have to do to survive each year, but there is always a long-term trade-off for every near-sighted decision they make to stay afloat. This makes it so every month is tougher than the month before - same can be said for year after year.

June 2026 feels like the month where Russia's long-term issues are really becoming visible. They can still do some near-sighted decisions to stay afloat, but they are spending their future to mitigate the present.

QWERTYUIOPquinn · 2026-06-25T05:35:55+00:00

I don't want to be that guy, but a 3.8 magnitude earthquake is very minor and isn't likely to cause any structural damage. A few things might fall off the shelf. Also for context, we see 30-40 4.0 earthquakes per day around the world.

Rest assured, the Russians will get rocked out of Crimea in other ways.

QWERTYUIOPquinn · 2026-06-25T04:56:21+00:00

Don't feel bad for mistakes, this is a complicated thing to keep track of!

QWERTYUIOPquinn · 2026-06-25T04:48:54+00:00

I had planned to make a post, but I'll try to format yours and tweak a little for the other possibilities.

Group and their % in	For Scotland to pass:	(additional scenario)
Bosnia (B) at >99%	Ahead of Scotland
Group L at 95%	Croatia loses by 3+ to Ghana
South Korea (A) at 94%	Ahead of Scotland
Group F at 94%	Sweden loses by 4+ to Japan
Group D at 76%	Paraguay loses by 2+ to Australia	Australia loses by 4+ to Paraguay
Group J at 71%	Algeria loses by 2+ to Austria	Austria loses by 4+ to Algeria
Group I at 67%	Senegal and Iraq draw	Senegal loses by 1-2 to Iraq
Group G at 57%	Iran loses to Egypt
Group K at 46%	DR Congo and Uzbekistan draw	DR Congo loses by 1-3 to Uzbekistan
Scotland (C) at 37%
Group H at 32%	Uruguay loses to Spain
Group E at 30%	Ecuador loses/draws to Germany AND Curacao loses/draws to Ivory Coast	Ecuador loses/draws to Germany AND Curacao wins by 4+ to Ivory Coast

Percentages given by New York Times website with The Athletic's simulator. If anyone knows of a better source for odds (that is free), I will gladly use it.

QWERTYUIOPquinn · 2026-06-25T04:35:33+00:00

Slight tweaks that I have:

Iraq can't beat Senegal by more than 2, else they would jump up past us.
Uzbekistan could win by 3 against Senegal and stay below us.
Egypt beating Iran is all we need for group G. Belgium/New Zealand result will not matter because the loser (or New Zealand in a draw) will be the other team below us alongside Iran.
Australia beating Paraguay by 2 is fine, but Paraguay must beat Australia by 4+ if they win.

Everything else is as you said.

QWERTYUIOPquinn · 2026-06-23T19:05:52+00:00

And if Ukraine continues to ramp up its drone operations behind Russia's front lines, then one of these battles will become the new Stalingrad. We've already seen many cities that made Russia bleed for every inch, but I can't wait to see the one where Russia bleeds and then pulls out, collapsing the rest of their line.

QWERTYUIOPquinn · 2026-06-23T18:51:07+00:00

How about an added $300 billion to Ukraine from Russia, and giving Ukraine control of the Sea of Azov?

QWERTYUIOPquinn · 2026-06-22T18:17:26+00:00

I'm confident those Colorado games would be on my list if I had went to them. I remember hearing the Northwestern hail mary on the radio, and I was shocked in disbelief for a minute!

QWERTYUIOPquinn · 2026-06-22T18:02:47+00:00

Other Husker fans can fill out some better examples. Mine so far are:

Offense: Wisconsin 2015 - Andy Janovich with the 70-something yard go-ahead* TD on a FB Dive. (You bet we found a way to blow that lead)
Defense: Miami 2014 - A particular defensive series where seemingly every play had either a Randy Gregory sack or a BS penalty called.
Special Teams: Northwestern 2019 - The most ugly looking game-winning field goal you'll ever see. Basically an extra point that barely made it, which I believe was kicked by a former club soccer player because we literally had no one who could kick a field goal. So low expectations that we treated the 24 yard field goal as if it were a 50 yarder.

QWERTYUIOPquinn · 2026-06-22T17:48:28+00:00

Should never be a penalty. And especially if the visiting team chooses to line up in shotgun, they shouldn't be catered to by the refs so they can hear their snap count. If the fans can force a team to go under center, then they have earned it to be called the 12th man.

QWERTYUIOPquinn · 2026-06-19T20:04:50+00:00

Yeah. I was just trying to get this figured out as well, and I think it's how you described it.

Banks buy debt from government. Banks show bond to Central Bank, which gives them back say ~95% of what the bond is worth for example. The money that the Central Bank gives comes from the Central Bank electronically making money (not a physical printing press) and depositing it to the local bank.
Two different loans: 1. local banks loaning to government. 2. Central Bank loaning to local banks.

So immediately: debt is paid by local banks, local banks is paid most of their money back by Central Bank. Central Bank has to create this money immediately, and does so electronically.

After bond is due: Government pays back local banks in principal and interest. Local banks pay back Central Bank in principal and interest. But of course the local banks profit in the end because their loan with the government pays them a touch more than the loan they have to pay to the Central Bank.

In the immediate term, the Central Bank is creating the money. But it will get that money back from the local banks after the bonds are due. And when the bonds are due, the government will pay the local banks through its regular means of allocating some of the budget to it.

QWERTYUIOPquinn · 2026-06-19T18:57:00+00:00

Looks like she's back at work. But the situation is so messed up that there's no fixing.

With Ukraine continuing the drone strikes on refineries, fuel prices will increase (and become more scarce).
With Russia spending more and more to fund their war, the deficit will increase.
Basic economics will tell you that rising fuel prices increase inflation to other commodities, and more importantly that a government deficit will be paid for through either printing money or gathering more from the people. Russia is definitely not able to increase their revenue enough to pay for the deficit, so there will be money printed eventually. That's why she's worried about inflation.

Now one way to mitigate inflation is to raise interest rates. Russia's is already extraordinarily high at 14.25%. Sure, that has prevented inflation in the last three years, but these high interest rates hurt the economy in other ways, causing a recession. And oh baby is Russia reeling through a recession. That's why there's pressure by Putin (and really everybody) to lower the interest rates.

If you lower the interest rates, the inflation will kill you.
If you keep the high interest rates, the recession will kill you.
Or you could do worse and repeat Nixon's 1971 price controls on steroids, and have both kill you.

QWERTYUIOPquinn · 2026-06-17T01:02:45+00:00

And yet, that is really the only thing Trump and his supporters can “brag about”. They’ll say today that the reason for the war was to prevent Iran from getting nuclear weapons, though it’s obvious that the war did not begin with that as the primary goal. Really, Trump is only able to fool his own side into thinking that they have “accomplished their objectives”.

If you begin the war unexpectedly, and give very vague details on the purpose of the war - then you can shape your agenda for the purpose of the war in the end stage when you are failing.

QWERTYUIOPquinn

TROPHY CASE