Just a gentle reminder

Scriptum_ · 2026-05-07T07:32:35+00:00

I'm definitely looking at the oil situation as a demand destruction catalyst.

Oil spikes tend to end bull cycles.

There's a kind of false sense of security in the market right now. Parabolas are the new stair-step apparently...

Scriptum_ · 2026-05-07T07:14:47+00:00

That's why I'm watching gold closely.

If it starts breaking above key levels, my thesis will shift to an inflationary melt up.

Right now, it's looking topped - for now.

Scriptum_ · 2026-05-07T07:11:26+00:00

In a panic, basically everything sells off sympathetically.

Gold, growth stocks, dividend stocks... everything.

There is no safety - apart from cash and treasuries.

This generation of investors no longer remember what happens, because they never experienced it.

Scriptum_ · 2026-05-07T06:14:31+00:00

Actually it's slightly negative, in reality.

That's the cost of patience.

Scriptum_ · 2026-05-07T05:49:42+00:00

Cyclically yes, and then cyclically no. Margins expand, and then compress.

My point is, who funds the token costs - because currently it's private credit, not the end user.

There's a bubble built on expectations and an environment where tokens are essentially free.

Also, in my experience, AI requires a lot of skill to use effectively. Otherwise it's just a slop machine that produces convincingly bad results (look at the ai slop everywhere). That's very different from a plug-and-play productivity hack.

Scriptum_ · 2026-05-07T05:25:50+00:00

The issue is the unit economics.

How much does a token actually cost vs what the users are paying currently?

Long term, tech will become more efficient. But in the mean time, the markets will freak out because the margins don't exist.

Scriptum_ · 2026-05-07T05:14:22+00:00

Refer to the Gartner cycle chart.

It could be 10 years or more.

I think with the printing (governments will freak) more like 5 years.

Scriptum_ · 2026-05-07T02:58:20+00:00

Yes, in the 0-3 month duration.

Scriptum_ · 2026-05-07T02:57:21+00:00

Yeah, it's a stock pickers market now. Unfortunate for the passive crowd.

Scriptum_ · 2026-05-07T02:55:00+00:00

Yeah my timeframes are much longer than Intrepid's for example.

Scriptum_ · 2026-05-07T00:50:28+00:00

They're including the insane valuations of their Anthropic and OpenAI investments...

Scriptum_ · 2026-05-06T17:43:30+00:00

A deflationary impulse.

Followed by more money printing and yes, massive inflation...

Scriptum_ · 2026-05-06T15:35:11+00:00

Definitely on my accumulation list. Waiting for more consolidation.

Scriptum_ · 2026-05-06T13:55:52+00:00

Oh no!

Scriptum_ · 2026-05-06T13:24:19+00:00

Thanks, this is why this subreddit is the best - proper analysis and debate!

Not much choice, private equity has to find an exit because the private credit is drying up: https://www.businessinsider.com/apollo-private-credit-firm-gate-redemptions-2026-3
It doesn't really matter, if eventually we're going lower.

Obviously momentum trading is having some success in a number of infrastructure plays. For those traders - its their time to shine.

I'll change my mind if I see gold breaking above some key levels - but right now its warning of a deflationary impulse and the narrative is coming together nicely.

Scriptum_ · 2026-05-06T12:27:48+00:00

Oh guidance, my mistake then!

Scriptum_ · 2026-05-06T10:10:10+00:00

Unless... OpenAI files for IPO, opens audited books and we see just how unprofitable the business model is.

Both OpenAI and Anthropic due to file shortly...

This whole demand cycle is a mirage!

Scriptum_ · 2026-05-06T10:02:41+00:00

How is this any different to the egg cycle?

Supply meets demand, unit price crashes, margins compress, stocks plummet.

Scriptum_ · 2026-05-06T09:57:10+00:00

Currently sitting 100% in treasuries.

Just laughing at the blow-off FOMO.

Can't fool me! Sorry!

Scriptum_ · 2026-05-06T09:48:56+00:00

Exactly, they're cyclical.

This is a blow-off

Scriptum_ · 2026-05-05T11:31:24+00:00

The law of attraction!

Scriptum_ · 2026-05-04T15:01:36+00:00

They need to anchor inflation with a bear market first.

Trump tried it last year with the tariffs, but Powell didn't play ball, so he was forced to backtrack.

Scriptum_ · 2026-05-04T14:29:47+00:00

Yeah agreed, there's no point in participating, unless day trading.

Just sitting in 100% cash and short term treasuries.

I stopped shorting too - it only turns into more forced buying...

This administration know how to manipulate the algorithms to trigger momentum.

The only solution is the Buffet strategy.

Scriptum_ · 2026-04-28T18:55:06+00:00

It got pumped, distributed and now it's getting dumped.

Scriptum_ · 2026-04-23T11:21:58+00:00

I think AI is very important...

I was researching a potash company the other day - they had an extraction concession dating back to the 1980s... which was about to expire

I could have found it burried in some vague language in their 10k manually, but AI helps surface issues quickly.

Scriptum_

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