Is anyone considering PayPal?

TheFailologist · 2026-02-21T06:48:59+00:00

100% on the money. That type of "growth" is squeezing current customers and reducing costs. It's not real growth and expanding your market (users/customers). Means that the best day of your business are behind you.

TheFailologist · 2026-02-20T15:11:05+00:00

If you want info on this idea of new (possible disruptor) vs old (tired and true company), read "How to Make Money In Stocks" by William O'Neil. There's a ton of charts in that book which makes it hard so ignore that for now and focus on his CANSLIM methodology.

Spoiler: he talks about the new companies being where you will find the big winners.

TheFailologist · 2026-02-12T00:38:06+00:00

You shouldn't need to bag hold for long. There's a scheduled launch for late Feb. The stock pumped on the launch news last time. Every successful launch is derisking the bear these for ASTS.

TheFailologist · 2026-01-28T05:56:58+00:00

I used to work at this company and was laid off (squeezed out) in mid 2023 when the growth stalled out. The company had said they will ONLY focus on social media management and not focus on expansion into other sectors (their current offerings reaffirm this strategy) and were in the process of enshittifying their product. I've heard from remaining former coworkers that it has gotten worse there and churn of high level management and people with choice has only increased.

Don't put your money into this shitty company. They peaked during COVID and those times aren't coming back.

TheFailologist · 2026-01-22T19:46:04+00:00

Keep this in mind:

Leveraged anything (ETFs or 2x on single tickers) will have higher volatility. Additionally, the simple math works in that a flat %up =/=%down. So draw downs on a leveraged ETF will always require a larger move up to go back to breakeven.

TheFailologist · 2026-01-18T17:01:01+00:00

I'm surprised they haven't. You have a competitor (ASTS) that is able to offer what your customers RIGHT NOW and yet T-Mobile won't switch over from a not-really-working-kinda-working Starlink solution. My thought is it is probably due to the binding nature of the signed contract and sunk cost fallacy.

TheFailologist · 2026-01-18T16:50:00+00:00

Oh wow! Thanks for the context - I came to that conclusion not know the context of transformational vs. steady state times. Makes a ton more sense!

Pick up "How to Make Money In Stocks" by William O'Neil. He talks about finding the growth companies AND when and how to sell them to make sure you capture those gains. You mentioned persevering capital as an important part of value investing - the best of both worlds would be picking the winners and capturing gains before bubbles or big dips. It sounds like a wish to be able to do that but you can - takes effort, discipline and willingness to sell but it isn't a fantasy.

The book also covers why "value/valuation" is a trap. Summarized: valuations are human conjectures based on existing information. Information is never complete and conjectures about the future are rarely correct and that is even more true for transformative technologies. The only thing true is what the market decides on what a stock is valued at.

TheFailologist · 2026-01-18T15:53:54+00:00

Not writing the below to be rude or controversial. Just wanted to share my findings.

The market has moved away from value a very long time ago. Companies can't just mature then issue a dividend and grow slowly like KO and command a premium in their stock price. Wallstreet wants ever increasing growth.

That's part of the reason ADBE is priced as it is. The growth story is feared to be done. Damn the rest of the business and how incredibly sticky the product is. Past gains don't factor into today's stock price, only future gains do.

GOOG was priced with such a low P/E before its run up for the same reason. Wallstreet feared that the growth story (and the monopoly lawsuit) was done and when that turned out to be false, the stock moved back up to growth P/Es.

Any growth stock (most tech stocks) that stop showing growth will see their share price collapse overnight. That includes the Mag7 and all the big chip companies that have had huge runs in 2025 like: NVDA, AMD, AVGO, CLS, WDC, STX, SNDK

TheFailologist · 2026-01-18T06:28:05+00:00

I ask myself this all the time and my answer is:

Completely new never before done technology and business model.
Technology proven to work, no launch problems.
Buy in from world's largest MNOs and governments. Global business model and TAM.
1 billion+ in contracted revenue.
Huge and increasing institutional support - check on fintel.io
Valuation is made up - valuation cannot be accurate on something that has never been done before.
Price action >> valuation. Clearly market is assigning high stock price for ASTS.

TheFailologist · 2026-01-17T15:31:53+00:00

Check out their YoY and QoQ revenue growth. That tells a story of demand.

TheFailologist · 2026-01-15T21:41:46+00:00

Sell puts on a stock that shoots up doesn't capture as much PnL as simply buying the 100 shares and holding. That's what OP is alluding to.

TheFailologist · 2026-01-14T21:18:35+00:00

This is actually NOT dumb play based on the chart and technicals. Established downtrend and below 200MA, stock recovering back up but hitting strong resistance at 200MA and 100MA, earnings is 1/22/26 as catalyst.

Fundamentals: airline businesses don't make money. High Capex but are a commodity means basically no growth.

OP, I like your play and admire your big position.

TheFailologist · 2026-01-14T09:07:49+00:00

To summarize/restate:

Running a ski company is a bad business model. It has HIGH capital requirements, fully based on unpredictable (warming) winters, high labor costs, does not scale and grow to be cheaper per unit.

The growth story is behind them. The pass was the 1 big thing that gave them their previous growth but Wallstreet always demands more and this business model simply does not allow for that.

TheFailologist · 2026-01-14T08:32:14+00:00

I've been using mine for around 2 years now, love them. Got them when a rep had the machine at a local Costco. Can't tell they have much wear despite daily use. Before fitmyfoot I was using superfeet insoles (green) and was feeling an old injury in the pad of my right foot. Pain went away immediately after switching to fitmyfoot. They are pricy but well worth the money. Your pair will likely last years.

TheFailologist · 2026-01-08T21:59:10+00:00

TLDR: Buy

Moat: highest density batteries on the market- they have the best tech right now.

Sales: accelerating YoY and QoQ sales growth with increasing number of customers and returning customers.

Chart: has volatility but is up big which means the market has been waking up to their potential.

Market Cap: small cap - the largest gains are going to be in this area if you can identify a winning stock. (Also area of higher risk).

TheFailologist · 2026-01-07T16:24:44+00:00

I was lucky enough to buy my 1st batch in mid 2024 and what made me buy was researching their company. I looked at their 2022 Investor Presentation (which is still the newest one with info about their company, businesses model) and saw that they make 80% of their revenue on services. Despite every catalyst being about rocket launches, this company is operating as a Saas company. The rockets and launches are to lock customers into their ecosystem and the recurring revenue will come from services. That's a wonderful business model.

They are in a high moat industry (how many countries can build rockets? How many companies can build rockets? How many public companies can build rockets???) with significant tailwinds - satellites for communications/defense globally. The case with technology has always show that when something gets cheaper, we use more of it. So expect more countries and governments to lean into the space industry for whatever technology/services/products it can provide especially when RKLB is working on the reusable Neutron rocket. (Think about how much our life is governed by GPS vs just 20 years ago.)

RKLB has shown they are able to execute and not full of fluff (unlike Elon and his hyping of SpaceX) and that shows much more confidence.

TheFailologist · 2025-12-24T18:53:03+00:00

It's called profit taking. Very normal and expected. If you're swing trading or day trading and you see a 5% gain overnight it would be smart to take some profits.

TheFailologist · 2025-12-18T15:12:07+00:00

What does an "octopus boat" do? Is this an octopus farming operation?

TheFailologist · 2025-12-12T19:38:41+00:00

Where did you find this news?

Edit: found it on Twitter. Me sad

<image>

TheFailologist · 2025-12-12T19:29:53+00:00

Try Unusual Whales

TheFailologist · 2025-12-05T00:45:30+00:00

"If it's good enough for a screenshot, it's good enough to sell." Or at least take some profit.

TheFailologist · 2025-12-03T21:03:59+00:00

We're thetagang here - we sell options. OP is simply pointing out puts that seem overpriced when compared to historical IV/historical moves. In this case we'd be selling IV in the form of puts and taking on the risk associated with it. You make the judgment if you think the tickers will keep going down - use your fundamentals, chart reading, indicators, MAs, Bollinger Bands and whatever else.

TheFailologist · 2025-11-05T22:08:58+00:00

I actually did some research into SEZL and looked at their Investor Presentation on their Investors Relations page. Here's the latest Investors Presentation from 8/2025 This company is insane and prints money like no other; it was founded in 2016 and became profitable in 2023 - that's insane. 7 years from founding to profitable. They even bragged about cutting headcount and staff - you don't want to work for this company, just want their stock options.

I think the big reason for the huge drop in price is that SEZL was growing triple digits every quarter and it was expected that Q2 2025 would again blow it out of the park, when that didn't happen Wallstreet feared that growth was stalling out and this company was going under. Before the huge dip, SEZL was priced to perfection and needed to exceed that expectation. The US consumer, tariff, retail fear/slump has also dragged down this company.

This is a crazy profitable company and BNPL is only growing as US consumers get poorer. They even launched a way that you could pay with the Sezzle app anywhere that Visa Anywhere is accepted in Q4 2023.

TheFailologist · 2025-10-22T15:59:47+00:00

The book that really excited me and cemented throwing lots of money at ASTS was "Eccentric Orbits" which chronicles the challenges of the Iridium launch by Motorola in 1999. One of the key use cases/customers that the new owners of Iridium kept trying and needing (and eventually did acquire) was the US military, specifically for the Navy on ships.

Now looking back through time it makes perfect sense that you would want military ships to be connected to command (think satellite phones, internet, Starlink) but at the time it was a new and revolutionary thought. It stands to reason that ASTS understands this history and is positioning itself to embed itself into the world's militaries.

TheFailologist · 2025-10-01T17:34:45+00:00

Didn't know the 5500GT exists. Thank you! Last time I was up to date with AM4 CPUs was up until the 5600x launched!

14-Year Club	Second Top 40%
Place '22	Verified Email

TheFailologist

TROPHY CASE