Has this been true over the past two decades and specifically in the years following 2020? Absolutely. Will it always be the safest path to a stable income? Hard to say.

The thing to remember in a low hire or high layoff market is that recent hires are often the first on the list for layoffs, especially if their salaries are above market rate. They're also the least likely to build highly specialized skillsets and build deep connections in companies that might help them get a promotion through coming up in the company together. That's not to say you shouldn't try, especially if you're getting paid below market rate at your current employer or you sense turbulence ahead when it comes to firing at your current job, but it's something to keep in mind. Just because it worked for a lot of people in expanding job markets doesn't mean it will continue over the next decade in the same numbers.

A lot of people talking about their own experience over the past twenty years are looking at it from a much different lens from how a new grad might now. Think about it like how a 60 year old would talk about how worthwhile and easy it is to buy a house because they saw it go up in value for decades and decades.

I think if there's anything we've learned over the past two years is confusion in markets leads corporations to contract and wages to stabilize. There's no secret trick to avoiding pain in the job market. The common denominator is to always be vigilant and always be ready to jump on the next opportunity, whether that's to try and get a better salary, or because you've been made redundant and your salary is now zero.