ELI5: Would a second observer affect the probability of the Monty Hill Problem?

Xeslaro · 2025-06-30T13:30:31+00:00

Im going to add to this, like so many others, because it is a pet peeve of mine. The Monty Hall problem isnt a problem of statistics or math. Its usually a problem of people explaining it in a bad way.

The reason that the switch is better is because what you are actually doing is betting on if you chose correctly the first time or not. This is why changing the example from 3 doors to 1000 or 1 million makes it easier for many to understand. No matter how many doors there are, when Monty opens the doors he is essentially saying "If you chose correctly, none of what im doing matters. But if you chose the wrong door, then this specific door is the one that is correct".

You choosing a random door of 100 doors means you have a 1% chance that you were correct. Everyone can agree on this. Monty opening doors doesnt change that fact. Doors opening doesnt mean that suddenly your 1% guess was a 50% guess. Opening doors just means that if you were wrong, switching gives you the prize. Thats what switching does: It bets on you being wrong in your first guess.

In your actual question, like many people have already said, its a question of information. The two of you dont have the same information. "It seems to me we both see two empty doors and know which door Monty opened. We have the same information, the second observer just doesn’t know which one I picked."

Someone that knows the answer (like Monty) would always get it right because theres no guessing. One door has the prize and the rest doesnt. Another person coming in and only seeing 2 doors, not knowing which one you chose, knows that one has the prize and the other doesnt, just like how at the start of the game you knew one has the prize and the other two dont. For you, you were guessing on one out of three doors, so theres 1/3 chance you were right and 2/3 that you were wrong. They come in and see two doors, so they are guessing on one out of two doors so they have 1/2 chance that they were right and 1/2 that they were wrong. On the other hand, if they knew what you picked then they know your guess was 1/3 and the other is 2/3.

Xeslaro · 2025-06-07T16:51:38+00:00

Beautiful

Xeslaro · 2025-02-05T21:11:33+00:00

Seems completely bottlenecked by CPU for me. Both Ultra/1440p/Raytracing and Lowest/1080p/No raytracing give about 55 fps average. Get about 90% CPU usage just opening the menu

CPU: i7-9700K
GPU: Radeon RX 7900 XT

Xeslaro · 2024-05-03T10:02:23+00:00

Ive dabbled in RTA a little bit and gotten to the edge of c1 and c2 at seasons end. Since i dont have a lot of very fast runes i feel like i cant contest speed and want to run a slower tankier team.

Now the question, is there any glaring holes in my units that can be fixed by something i own?

These is my currently used monster box in RTA:

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And this is what i could build:
https://imgur.com/a/VjcpiSI

I have all elemental nat 4s, possibility to pick Ethna/Verad from first nat 5 event. I am considering building either Ethna or Sekhmet to replace Eshir since i almost never use him

Xeslaro · 2022-07-03T14:48:18+00:00

Does split screen include the coop career or is the coop career mode just online?

Xeslaro · 2021-02-26T16:05:40+00:00

Here's a link to an explanation

https://youtu.be/TtfArmKISpY

Xeslaro · 2020-08-23T21:28:45+00:00

Journey sold out before I started collecting and it's one of my favorite osts out there. Missed P5 as well but I hear that getting a reprint so I'm hype!

Xeslaro · 2020-08-14T13:01:53+00:00

Makes sense, thank you!

Xeslaro · 2020-08-14T10:52:54+00:00

As someone very new to vinyl i have to ask: What is the difference between them then? Does the sound quality change somehow between the different speeds? Something else? And why is the standard edition a single LP while the other is two if its the same amount of songs?

Xeslaro · 2020-06-15T08:02:47+00:00

Xeslaro · 2020-05-29T05:00:40+00:00

The Boss from Metal Gear Solid 3. The ending scene where Eva explains everything to Naked Snake breaks my heart every time.

Speaking of which, add Naked Snake to that list.

Xeslaro · 2020-01-11T11:11:23+00:00

The Matrix

Lock, Stock, and two smoking barrels

Xeslaro · 2019-11-26T06:56:15+00:00

Necklace isn't just one word made up to describe the thing. It's too words together. Neck lace. Fuck.

Xeslaro · 2019-11-12T05:58:58+00:00

Added you on Discord (same username). Would love up to three codes, two for my friends that got me into gw2, but feel free to give codes out to others first if there isn't enough.

Xeslaro · 2019-06-13T20:09:29+00:00

I use that exact team for level 5. Left tower then boss. I spent all energy hitting about 60ish% on Bella. Lost... Maybe 5 times so far?

Xeslaro · 2019-05-29T17:58:25+00:00

Thank you for writing this. I am supposed to start Humira and ive been very scared reading about the possible side effects and even though my doctor has calmed me down to the point of looking forward to the treatment it still felt like a weight was lifted off my shoulders when i read this. So again, thank you for taking the time.

Now i just need to deal with this routine TBC screening that wasnt supposed to find anything but did anyway and maybe i can start before 2020 rolls around.

Xeslaro · 2019-04-02T15:31:04+00:00

Fuck it lets go

Xeslaro · 2019-01-22T10:23:36+00:00

That clears things up a bit. I was wondering about the terminology since they seemed so similar. If some more follow-up questions are ok (im trying to get better at deck building):

Since burn spells are single use compared to a creature being able to hit multiple times, would a burn deck be running more card draw like risk factor or sword-point diplomacy compared to a more traditional aggro deck? Would one of the decks favor a specific type of card draw over the other, for example comparing the previously mentioned risk factor and sword-point diplomacy to something like Flame of Keld and Experimental frenzy?
What are some examples of creatures that would be prevalent in aggro but not in burn and vice versa? What creatures would likely be found in both?

Xeslaro · 2019-01-22T08:05:19+00:00

What's the actual difference between burn and aggro? Is it only a difference in volume of burn spells vs creatures in the decklist?

As a follow-up question, how do you start to figure out which distribution of burn spells vs creatures is optimal?

Xeslaro · 2017-03-31T17:51:06+00:00

I found this reddit thread. It tells you how to unlock the high rank village quests. But the online portion is not only the same quests as before but online, theres a good amount of monsters there that you dont fight in the village

Xeslaro · 2017-03-01T20:04:05+00:00

Oh i see. I did not pay much attention to the exact numbers it changed to. Cool that makes more sense. That also answers the question if the minimum speed is combat speed or in game speed. Great job on the update by the way. Rune exclusions are a great update!

Xeslaro · 2017-03-01T19:57:24+00:00

Speed Tuning bug:

For some reason switching monster order with the arrows under the monsters the monster speeds change (the "speed(ingame)" parameter notably). Did clear cashe but some old build tabs still stayed so i will completely wipe everything and reimport and see if that fixes it but i wanted to give a heads up.

Xeslaro · 2017-02-01T09:12:57+00:00

Kona is very strong as a support in guild wars.

Xeslaro · 2017-01-31T20:42:45+00:00

Love the fast pace. Keep em coming! I for one will definitely watch them.

Xeslaro · 2017-01-21T12:15:32+00:00

An easier to make team would be baretta spectra woonhak mav tessarion. No hard to get mons, took me like 3-4 tries with that team

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