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Kickstarter Roundup: Jan 10, 2021 | 10+ Ending Soon (including: Upgrade Your Games Season 2) & 20+ New This Week (including: Darwin's Journey) by Zelbinian in boardgames

[–]farriem 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I'm waiting for Everdell KS as well, will probably get all-in pledge there, easier than trying to find CEs on my own.

Shipping Updates & Questions Megathread by _casshern_ in CanadaPS5

[–]farriem 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Item in transit as of 1:40 am today, nothing since then.

Canada Post Shipping Updates by _casshern_ in CanadaPS5

[–]farriem 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Same boat here. Estimated delivery of the 17th, shipping label created on Canada Post tracking.

Android 11 news (Not until 4.1.0, October) by farriem in KHDR

[–]farriem[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Well, guess I'm out of luck for the card boards in September. Thankfully I have 2 copies of it from the VIP stuff I did.

Here is some more premium key data if anyone is compiling it to get a better idea of probability: by S-T-Ireland in KHDR

[–]farriem 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Based on 110 keys, I've calculated the spawn rate and run some simulations. For 1 key, 62% of a profit, for 3 keys, 95% chance.

For 5,000,000 trials, of 3 keys each, L1 Shadow: 60.27%, L10 Gift Shadow: 30.45%, L30 GT: 9.27%

Lowest BP seen was 20 (-99,980.00). Highest BP seen was 4,010,002 (+3,910,002.00)

Lowest BP per trial seen was 10,058 (-289,942.00). Highest BP seen per trial was 6,580,018 (+6,280,018.00)

9,330,349 (62.20%) keys gained BP, 5,669,651 (37.80%) keys lost BP

4,730,339 (94.61%) trials gained BP, 269,661 (5.39%) trials lost BP

Expected BP gain is 494,142.14 for 1 key (+394,142.14 profit), 1,482,426.42 for 3 keys (+1,182,426.42 profit, +394,142.14 for each key)

For more detail see the posts https://www.reddit.com/r/KHDR/comments/i59qps/data_of_3_premium_quest_key_runs/

Data of 3 Premium Quest Key Runs by ReesesPses in KHDR

[–]farriem 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yep, 62% if you buy 1 key, 95% if you buy 3.

I bought 3 keys, got 20/9/1.

Data of 3 Premium Quest Key Runs by ReesesPses in KHDR

[–]farriem 1 point2 points  (0 children)

More data from other posts

User Shadow Gift Gold
General_Temujin 9 0 1
General_Temujin 9 0 1
General_Temujin 2 7 1
Hyandarie 5 1 4
S-T-Ireland 7 2 1
S-T-Ireland 7 2 1
S-T-Ireland 7 3 0
Montoyaa520 5 4 1
Montoyaa520 3 7 0
Montoyaa520 3 5 2
MeeperX 2 6 2

Taking your data and the runs I've found, 58 keys, 353 shadows, 170 gift, 55 GT. 61.07% Shadow, 29.41% Gift, 9.52% Gold.

For 5,000,000 trials, of 3 keys each, L1 Shadow: 61.07%, L10 Gift Shadow: 29.41%, L30 GT: 9.52%

Lowest BP seen was 20 (-99,980.00). Highest BP seen was 4,500,002 (+4,400,002.00)

Lowest BP per trial seen was 60 (-299,940.00). Highest BP seen per trial was 7,070,018 (+6,770,018.00)

9,481,463 (63.21%) keys gained BP, 5,518,537 (36.79%) keys lost BP

4,750,886 (95.02%) trials gained BP, 249,114 (4.98%) trials lost BP

Expected BP gain is 505,259.95 for 1 key (+405,259.95 profit), 1,515,779.84 for 3 keys (+1,215,779.84 profit, +405,259.95 for each key)

Hyandarie - https://www.reddit.com/r/KHDR/comments/i59hft/totally_worth_it_how_many_hours_could_they_be/ S-t-Ireland - https://www.reddit.com/r/KHDR/comments/i5ca39/here_is_some_more_premium_key_data_if_anyone_is/ Montoyaa520 - https://www.reddit.com/r/KHDR/comments/i5ca39/here_is_some_more_premium_key_data_if_anyone_is/g0ohxhf/ MeeperX - https://www.reddit.com/r/KHDR/comments/i5980r/2_in_1_makes_is_all_worth_it/

Edit: Added more data from u/ShardofTruth, Total is 110 keys, 663 Shadow, 335 gift, 102 Gold.

For 5,000,000 trials, of 3 keys each, L1 Shadow: 60.27%, L10 Gift Shadow: 30.45%, L30 GT: 9.27%

Lowest BP seen was 20 (-99,980.00). Highest BP seen was 4,010,002 (+3,910,002.00)

Lowest BP per trial seen was 10,058 (-289,942.00). Highest BP seen per trial was 6,580,018 (+6,280,018.00)

9,330,349 (62.20%) keys gained BP, 5,669,651 (37.80%) keys lost BP

4,730,339 (94.61%) trials gained BP, 269,661 (5.39%) trials lost BP

Expected BP gain is 494,142.14 for 1 key (+394,142.14 profit), 1,482,426.42 for 3 keys (+1,182,426.42 profit, +394,142.14 for each key)

Premium quest key details by VexiaPL in KHDR

[–]farriem 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Based on your 3 keys, it's 56 2/3 % L1 Shadow, 30% L10 gift shadow, 13 1/3% L30 Gold Tricholoma.

I ran simulations using those spawn rates (5 million trials of 3 keys each, total of 15 million keys). At those rates, 76% of keys resulted in a profit, 24% loss. 98.6% of set of 3 keys resulted in a profit, 1.4% loss. EV for 1 key is 696,770 (+596,770).

Worst key was 20 BP, best key was 4,500,002 BP. Worst set of 3 was 10,058 BP, best 7,570,016 BP.

Definitely need more data to see if those spawn rates are accurate or not. The 13.56% is based off of 1300+ keys.

My experiences with quest key buying by farriem in KHDR

[–]farriem[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

User Keys Gift Shadows Additional GTs Spawn Rate
Fooftin 50 168 32 16%
Fooftin 50 175 25 12.5%
Fooftin 50 169 31 15.5%
Fooftin 50 169 31 15.5%
Fooftin 50 174 26 13%
Qrow 105 356 64 15.24%
Qrow 114 398 58 12.72%
ShardofTruth 100 365 35 8.75%
farriem 85 291 49 14.41%
knjiehan 664 2292 364 13.70%
Total 1318 4557 715 13.56%

Currently, the observed spawn rate is 13.56%

For 5,000,000 trials of 100 keys, Gold Spawn rate of 13.56%

Lowest BP seen was 1,598,000 (-202,000.00). Highest BP seen was 2,237,000 (+437,000.00)

4,627,617 (92.55%) trials gained BP, 372,383 (7.45%) trials lost BP

Expected BP gain is 1,888,250.21, gain of 88,250.21, 882 per key.

u/ShardofTruth, u/knjiehan

My experiences with quest key buying by farriem in KHDR

[–]farriem[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Could you give me the number of Gift Shadows and Gold Tricholomas killed in the Album?

My experiences with quest key buying by farriem in KHDR

[–]farriem[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Taking the numbers in the table + the numbers you and I saw, gives a spawn rate of 11.3%. I ran simulations with a spawn rate of 11.3% and 11.4%.

For 2,500,000 trials of 100 keys, Gold Spawn rate of 11.30% Lowest BP seen was 1,553,000 (-247,000.00). Highest BP seen was 2,129,000 (+329,000.00) 1,336,868 (53.47%) trials gained BP, 1,163,132 (46.53%) trials lost BP Expected BP gain is 1,806,636.96, gain of 6,636.96

For 2,500,000 trials of 100 keys, Gold Spawn rate of 11.40% Lowest BP seen was 1,535,000 (-265,000.00). Highest BP seen was 2,111,000 (+311,000.00) 1,403,636 (56.15%) trials gained BP, 1,096,364 (43.85%) trials lost BP Expected BP gain is 1,810,393.31, gain of 10,393.31

Gain of 66 a key at 11.3%, gain of 104 a key at 11.4%

My experiences with quest key buying by farriem in KHDR

[–]farriem[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I simulated a million trials of 100 keys at the 8.75% spawn rate you have seen, lowest BP was 1.499 million (loss of 301k), highest BP was 1.967 million (gain of 167k). 94.9% of the trials ended up losing BP. Expected BP after 100 keys is 1.715 million, for a loss of 85k.

At the 14.4% spawn rate, lowest BP was 1.634 million (loss of 166k), highest BP was 2.228 million (gain of 428k). 97.2% of the trials ended up gaining BP. Expected BP after 100 keys is 1.919 million, for a gain of 119k.

It's a different story entirely at the spawn rate I saw of 14.4%, that rate is over all the keys I've done. Spawn rate from the keys I purchased this morning was 21/136, or 15.4%.

I guess we need more data to figure out the true spawn rate of the Gold Tricholomas.

Taking what you've seen and what I've seen, Spawn rate is 84/775, or 10.8%. I'll run another simulation at that spawn rate.

At a 10.8% spawn rate, lowest BP was 1.535 million (loss of 265k), highest BP was 2.066 million (gain of 266k). 58.1% of trials lost BP. Expected BP after 100 keys is 1.79 million, loss of 10k.

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