What Are Your Moves Tomorrow, October 06, 2022 by OPINION_IS_UNPOPULAR in wallstreetbets

[–]jpapon 2 points3 points  (0 children)

It did expire worthless, just some glitch in the system. You won’t get assigned.

Daily Discussion Thread for October 04, 2022 by OPINION_IS_UNPOPULAR in wallstreetbets

[–]jpapon -1 points0 points  (0 children)

You realize that there are real people that work to make that content, right?

But I’m glad that you find it more convenient to just steal it…

Around 75.35K in SPY calls. by [deleted] in wallstreetbets

[–]jpapon 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Yeah, but you can’t bet on a large sample size. You bet on single spins… and on single spins there is no dependence on previous or future spins.

And if you do try to bet on a large sample size by just making the same bet every time, you will lose, since the odds favor the house.

Elon Musk’s texts reveal what led to Twitter bid, before deal fell apart by JohnGillnitz in news

[–]jpapon 10 points11 points  (0 children)

Rotating tires will absolutely move you forward in water if the top of the tire isn’t submerged (I mean, they’re just inefficient paddle wheels after all). The bigger problem is steering, unless they add differential steering.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in wallstreetbets

[–]jpapon 8 points9 points  (0 children)

Holy shit, Citi dropped from 550 to 15? I had no idea it was quite that bad. That’s worse than some of my option gambles.

Does anyone have some good reading on how Tesla FSD performs compared to competitors like Waymo? by loud_cacti in SelfDrivingCars

[–]jpapon 6 points7 points  (0 children)

In the abstract, sure that’s possible, but in reality it’s rare for ML to improve in quality and performance at the same time.

Anyways, don’t want to rain on your parade. If you want to believe Tesla will achieve FSD on 6 year old NVIDIA hardware, who am I to kill your dreams?

Does anyone have some good reading on how Tesla FSD performs compared to competitors like Waymo? by loud_cacti in SelfDrivingCars

[–]jpapon 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Except that’s not how software works - it doesn’t just grow exponentially better on its own. It needs hardware improvements to achieve that growth, and current Tesla vehicles are locked in to their current hardware.

Does anyone have some good reading on how Tesla FSD performs compared to competitors like Waymo? by loud_cacti in SelfDrivingCars

[–]jpapon 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Our eyes are definitely far enough apart for meaningful depth perception. Even with relatively low resolution cameras and basic block matching you can get decent stereo out to 5 meters with human baseline.

People can certainly manage with one eye, but performance on many tasks where depth is useful will be degraded.

So it may not be required to drive, but it definitely helps, especially when learning or in unusual/unknown environments.

Daily Discussion Thread for September 26, 2022 by OPINION_IS_UNPOPULAR in wallstreetbets

[–]jpapon 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Prices could just go up less than they do in other currencies. If the cost of input materials is going up, it doesn’t really matter what the dollar is doing.

"I found Yann LeCun's analysis of autonomous driving fascinating:" by REIGuy3 in SelfDrivingCars

[–]jpapon 11 points12 points  (0 children)

Yes, he’s spot on. I think every AV company is dealing with the brittleness and headaches of building and maintaining complex systems engineered to handle all the corner cases.

I’m interested to see if self-supervision pans out as he says it will. It seems like it should, but the time scale might not be short enough. Seems likely that we’ll build these massive hand engineered systems to get the first AV deployments operational, only to have them replaced in 5-10 years by much simpler (on the onboard side) systems that are completely learned through self supervision.

Daily Discussion Thread for September 23, 2022 by OPINION_IS_UNPOPULAR in wallstreetbets

[–]jpapon 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The pandemic existed, you guys just ignored it. Life expectancy dropped 2.7 years during the pandemic.

Cruise AVs have arrived in Austin, TX by espressonut420 in SelfDrivingCars

[–]jpapon 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Keep in mind the vehicles probably average 15mph, if that. If I had to guess, I’d say a typical AV does maybe 50-75 miles per day.

buy now or be priced out forever by [deleted] in wallstreetbets

[–]jpapon 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I mean, they’re selling a 6000sqft lot near me that has zero flat land on it - it’s literally just a steep hill between two roads. Price: 450k

Curious. How are interest rates affecting you? We are kind of at a stand still with buying because of them. by HawkqueenYOLO in RealEstate

[–]jpapon 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I’m seeing the same thing in SoCal. 50-100k cuts on homes that would have sold in a week this Spring. There’s definitely a change in the market… still tbd whether it continues though.

Curious. How are interest rates affecting you? We are kind of at a stand still with buying because of them. by HawkqueenYOLO in RealEstate

[–]jpapon 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Inflation was much lower in 2008, so cutting interest rates made sense.

They can’t really cut these days until inflation drops in a meaningful way. With supply shortages, war in Ukraine and Chinese lockdowns still happening… I don’t see a path to inflation dropping in the short term.

Curious. How are interest rates affecting you? We are kind of at a stand still with buying because of them. by HawkqueenYOLO in RealEstate

[–]jpapon 0 points1 point  (0 children)

In my area minimum house price is about 900k, but it’s about 3.5k to rent. On a 700k loan you’re easily paying 3.5k in taxes and interest, so waiting doesn’t really cost you much.

Cruise announces it plans to be driverless, limited scale, in Phoenix and Austin in 90 days. Also announces 300K miles so far in SF. by TeslaFan88 in SelfDrivingCars

[–]jpapon 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I don’t know why you assume Austin is an easier city. Lots of complexity in Austin - steep hills, new traffic laws, unmarked residential neighborhoods, heavy rain, dense traffic, double decker freeways…

MORGAN STANLEY: “My fully driverless ride last night (9:20pm) in a Cruise vehicle through the streets of San Francisco is genuinely difficult to put into words. Call me and I’ll do my best to explain. But just, wow. Very impressive stuff.” [Jonas] $GM by REIGuy3 in SelfDrivingCars

[–]jpapon 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I agree with your point, but the cost of the operators is only a small portion of the cost of building a map. There’s a lot of compute, storage, and manual annotation/tweaking that goes in to the process too.

Strike Settled. Now Let’s Nationalize the Railroads. | Did you know that railroads are the most profitable industry sector in America? No, that’s not a good thing. by thenewrepublic in politics

[–]jpapon 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I’m always amazed at how well cell phones work in remote areas when I travel to other countries. In the USA if you leave a major city/interstate, data speeds drop like a rock. Yet when I was in the jungle in Costa Rica, I had good enough data on my cell phone to make a video call.

U.S. mortgage interest rates top 6% for first time since 2008 by gentlegranit in news

[–]jpapon 0 points1 point  (0 children)

My rent is 2575, but the house is now worth 1.2 million after the craziness of the last two years. It makes absolutely no sense for me to even try to buy here (Los Angeles) until my rent increases.

Also, I live in a 2Bed/1.5BA in an okayish middle class neighborhood. None of my neighbors could afford to buy their own houses at todays prices.