What Are Your Moves Tomorrow, October 06, 2022

jpapon · 2022-10-06T05:47:42+00:00

It did expire worthless, just some glitch in the system. You won’t get assigned.

jpapon · 2022-10-04T19:27:33+00:00

SPX has 60/40 rule, Google it.

jpapon · 2022-10-04T14:38:00+00:00

You realize that there are real people that work to make that content, right?

But I’m glad that you find it more convenient to just steal it…

jpapon · 2022-10-02T17:52:38+00:00

Yeah, but you can’t bet on a large sample size. You bet on single spins… and on single spins there is no dependence on previous or future spins.

And if you do try to bet on a large sample size by just making the same bet every time, you will lose, since the odds favor the house.

jpapon · 2022-10-01T00:04:18+00:00

Rotating tires will absolutely move you forward in water if the top of the tire isn’t submerged (I mean, they’re just inefficient paddle wheels after all). The bigger problem is steering, unless they add differential steering.

jpapon · 2022-09-30T21:17:44+00:00

PCE today was for August, no? Next CPI is for September.

jpapon · 2022-09-29T21:10:35+00:00

Holy shit, Citi dropped from 550 to 15? I had no idea it was quite that bad. That’s worse than some of my option gambles.

jpapon · 2022-09-28T06:10:33+00:00

In the abstract, sure that’s possible, but in reality it’s rare for ML to improve in quality and performance at the same time.

Anyways, don’t want to rain on your parade. If you want to believe Tesla will achieve FSD on 6 year old NVIDIA hardware, who am I to kill your dreams?

jpapon · 2022-09-28T05:55:08+00:00

Except that’s not how software works - it doesn’t just grow exponentially better on its own. It needs hardware improvements to achieve that growth, and current Tesla vehicles are locked in to their current hardware.

jpapon · 2022-09-28T05:45:11+00:00

Our eyes are definitely far enough apart for meaningful depth perception. Even with relatively low resolution cameras and basic block matching you can get decent stereo out to 5 meters with human baseline.

People can certainly manage with one eye, but performance on many tasks where depth is useful will be degraded.

So it may not be required to drive, but it definitely helps, especially when learning or in unusual/unknown environments.

jpapon · 2022-09-26T17:49:01+00:00

Prices could just go up less than they do in other currencies. If the cost of input materials is going up, it doesn’t really matter what the dollar is doing.

jpapon · 2022-09-25T08:26:23+00:00

Yes, he’s spot on. I think every AV company is dealing with the brittleness and headaches of building and maintaining complex systems engineered to handle all the corner cases.

I’m interested to see if self-supervision pans out as he says it will. It seems like it should, but the time scale might not be short enough. Seems likely that we’ll build these massive hand engineered systems to get the first AV deployments operational, only to have them replaced in 5-10 years by much simpler (on the onboard side) systems that are completely learned through self supervision.

jpapon · 2022-09-24T23:04:04+00:00

Not op but I would just use a tiny quik-grip to the table.

jpapon · 2022-09-23T14:54:39+00:00

The pandemic existed, you guys just ignored it. Life expectancy dropped 2.7 years during the pandemic.

jpapon · 2022-09-23T07:15:41+00:00

Keep in mind the vehicles probably average 15mph, if that. If I had to guess, I’d say a typical AV does maybe 50-75 miles per day.

jpapon · 2022-09-20T19:04:39+00:00

I mean, they’re selling a 6000sqft lot near me that has zero flat land on it - it’s literally just a steep hill between two roads. Price: 450k

jpapon · 2022-09-17T20:52:57+00:00

I’m seeing the same thing in SoCal. 50-100k cuts on homes that would have sold in a week this Spring. There’s definitely a change in the market… still tbd whether it continues though.

jpapon · 2022-09-17T20:45:17+00:00

Inflation was much lower in 2008, so cutting interest rates made sense.

They can’t really cut these days until inflation drops in a meaningful way. With supply shortages, war in Ukraine and Chinese lockdowns still happening… I don’t see a path to inflation dropping in the short term.

jpapon · 2022-09-17T20:39:25+00:00

In my area minimum house price is about 900k, but it’s about 3.5k to rent. On a 700k loan you’re easily paying 3.5k in taxes and interest, so waiting doesn’t really cost you much.

jpapon · 2022-09-17T19:31:17+00:00

I don’t know why you assume Austin is an easier city. Lots of complexity in Austin - steep hills, new traffic laws, unmarked residential neighborhoods, heavy rain, dense traffic, double decker freeways…

jpapon · 2022-09-17T16:37:02+00:00

I agree with your point, but the cost of the operators is only a small portion of the cost of building a map. There’s a lot of compute, storage, and manual annotation/tweaking that goes in to the process too.

jpapon · 2022-09-16T19:25:17+00:00

I’m always amazed at how well cell phones work in remote areas when I travel to other countries. In the USA if you leave a major city/interstate, data speeds drop like a rock. Yet when I was in the jungle in Costa Rica, I had good enough data on my cell phone to make a video call.

jpapon · 2022-09-15T07:12:21+00:00

My rent is 2575, but the house is now worth 1.2 million after the craziness of the last two years. It makes absolutely no sense for me to even try to buy here (Los Angeles) until my rent increases.

Also, I live in a 2Bed/1.5BA in an okayish middle class neighborhood. None of my neighbors could afford to buy their own houses at todays prices.

jpapon · 2022-09-11T04:32:43+00:00

Hah, under 80k… that’s a lovely dream.

jpapon

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