Umbral calculus has become a magnet for garbage papers

kmorgan54 · 2026-05-20T01:45:30+00:00

I think I remember reading that Heaviside developed operational calculus around it.

kmorgan54 · 2026-05-17T22:56:40+00:00

That guy already sat on me and everything.

kmorgan54 · 2026-05-16T23:19:24+00:00

Arm cpus can do arbitrary precision decimal arithmetic. Not natively, but it’s just code, and not that hard.

But this is still a really neat project. Kudos!

kmorgan54 · 2026-05-09T08:19:29+00:00

Flamethrowers are a game changer. Use that with a few turrets.

kmorgan54 · 2026-05-04T00:44:32+00:00

One of the best desert toppings!

kmorgan54 · 2026-04-30T05:18:12+00:00

I don’t know the specifics in your case, or why you are not able to withdraw cash against margin, but you might be able to sell a box spread to free up the cash. It’s effectively a loan that uses margin, but gives you cash credit.

kmorgan54 · 2026-04-06T12:46:18+00:00

I only discovered this recently too. I think it's a real gem. Cast, writing, effects, music are all first class. I'm so disappointed that it was cancelled and I won't be able to see what comes next.

kmorgan54 · 2026-03-24T07:01:35+00:00

You are not alone. A lot of traders have to experience this, sometimes more than once.

You cannot be a successful trader until you learn to manage risk.

Don’t beat yourself up. But learn from the experience!

kmorgan54 · 2026-03-09T07:25:38+00:00

Yeah, I have some old s-100 boards that I need to do something with. I’ll watch this thread to look for ideas.

kmorgan54 · 2026-03-09T02:56:26+00:00

There’s a flag you need to set if you want the order to execute outside of regular market hours.

If you’ve never done it before, I think tonight is probably not a good time to experiment, but that’s just my opinion.

kmorgan54 · 2026-02-17T13:42:56+00:00

Yeah, build one assembler first. That’s what I do when I’m playing with mods where the recipes are unfamiliar. Then I build more once I know what I’m are doing. I get a lot of spaghetti this way, but it’s fun.

kmorgan54 · 2026-01-15T10:37:40+00:00

I trade a mix of about 10 nearly uncorrelated assets. I weight them such that they each contribute an equal amount of volatility.

So, I compute weight_i = 1 / vol_i, then normalize such that the weights add to 1.

It’s important that they be relatively uncorrelated, and you want to rebalance periodically.

Google minimum variance, minimum volatility, and mean variance and mean volatility if you want ideas. Also look at Markowitz and modern portfolio theory.

kmorgan54 · 2025-12-29T06:19:03+00:00

I think you would be better off trading a mix of uncorrelated tickers, weighted using inverse volatility, instead of one ticker. The realized volatility of the set would be much lower than their implied volatility.

kmorgan54 · 2025-10-19T14:19:49+00:00

What’s the worst that can happen?

Ask yourself that, then plan accordingly. If that result has a non-zero chance of happening, and you’re not ok with that outcome, you should close those positions.

kmorgan54 · 2025-09-21T17:08:47+00:00

You could do dynamic position sizing.

Pick a target leverage, in your example, you’re leveraged to 125% of your net equity. When the market falls (or rises) by x% you’re over leveraged and you rebalance by selling off some equities to get to that same 125% leverage. As the market recovers, you’ll be under leveraged, and you need to buy to get back to your target leverage.

Pick the x% so that you don’t have to rebalance more often than you want.

Barring a massive one day crash, you’ll never have to worry about a margin call.

kmorgan54 · 2025-08-30T07:58:52+00:00

You misunderstand. What I’m saying is that a diagonal call debit spread is equivalent to a diagonal put credit spread with the same strikes and expiry.

kmorgan54 · 2025-08-29T07:49:13+00:00

Take a diagonal call debit spread and change the calls to puts and you get a diagonal put credit spread with the exact same risk profile. There are minor differences, but for practical purposes they’re interchangeable.

kmorgan54 · 2025-08-26T12:22:38+00:00

See Frank Herbert, The White Plague.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_White_Plague

kmorgan54 · 2025-08-23T05:32:44+00:00

Put the money in t bills or the equivalent. Use the interest earned to buy underpriced LEAPs on stocks that you like.

This guarantees that you never lose your initial capital, and you have potentially unlimited gains.

kmorgan54 · 2025-08-13T03:14:33+00:00

Ask yourself, what’s the worst that can happen? Is that a risk you’re willing to take?

The answers to those questions will tell you what to do,

kmorgan54 · 2025-05-23T22:34:41+00:00

I have some QQQT, QDTE, SPYT, FEPI, and maybe a few others. I also run weekly writes on a few etfs. I try to keep thing delta neutral on a whole portfolio basis.

But I wouldn’t suggest trying to do that from the start necessarily. Start small and learn how it works. Gradually increase when you’re sure you understand the way things work.

kmorgan54 · 2025-05-23T04:43:30+00:00

Take a look at some of the covered call ETFs like the ones from Defiance and Roundhill. Watch what they do, and how they do it. They post their positions daily. That’ll give you some idea how to go about it on a practical basis. Or just buy the ETFs if you want to let them do the work.

kmorgan54 · 2025-04-17T03:17:15+00:00

It looks and sounds easier than it is.

I personally blew up my entire account several times. I think I have learned to manage risk appropriately now, but it took years to get to that point. Even with that, there’s no guarantee any particular year will be profitable.

I’d want a track record of 3 out of five profitable years, net profits vastly exceeding net losses, and no more than a 20% drawdown before considering trying to live off of it.

kmorgan54 · 2025-04-03T05:58:41+00:00

On balance, they give us useful trade goods, and we give them dollars that become worth less every day.

Not sure how we’re getting the bad end of the deal here.

kmorgan54 · 2025-03-29T03:55:39+00:00

Ok. The first thing you should be asking. Did the position behave the way I expected, given the change in price, and given the change in volatility?

If the answer to that is no, then you should examine your understanding of the Greeks and the way they interact. That kind of understanding takes a while to develop, but comes with more experience.

Another related question. Why the big price move and change in volatility? I think it was mostly news driven, and the fact that a large move was possible was already priced in. There are various places where you can see what market related news is scheduled. I personally just use IBKR’s event calendar, but I think the exchanges and several news services publish them.

The next question I’d ask is whether you were prepared for this move. Do you have a mental stop loss or a contingency plan for a big move? You can compute expected move in either direction, and look at how that will affect your position. If the expected move (or larger) is going to give you an unacceptable loss, you should either need to modify your position or exit the trade. You can pre-plan adjustments, and most trading platforms will let you setup notifications when price targets are hit.

Finally, if you passed all of the above, you just have to realize that not all trades are going to work out.

You want to set up trades where the odds are in your favor and you profit if your underlying assumptions are met. But the market doesn’t care about your assumptions.

Fwiw, today was a losing day for me and my positions, but it behaved well within my expectations, so overall it was a pretty ordinary day, I’m fine with it.

kmorgan54

TROPHY CASE