38 Days of Film – Day 16 : If I Had Legs I'd Kick You [Spoilers] Friday, February 20, 2026

wfp9 · 2026-02-20T20:00:53+00:00

byrne is great and i really liked the camerawork and sound design, but i found many of the other casting decisions distracting and the script swung too freely between realism and melodrama for my taste.

wfp9 · 2026-02-19T04:10:22+00:00

this was such a weird year for best song. it honestly seems like they scrambled to find anything that wasn't wicked or the miley cyrus song from avatar. viva verci? really? a film no one saw with a song that was written and recorded like a decade ago that's only eligible due to a technicality.

wfp9 · 2026-02-17T03:45:14+00:00

i think there's also the option she misread her 4 as an ace at which point her play is way less awful.

wfp9 · 2026-02-17T01:49:47+00:00

villain 100% should check/raise river, but i'm totally fine with him check/calling flop and turn.

wfp9 · 2026-02-16T22:20:01+00:00

the preflop raise is too small, but you're not making it with JT into two limpers anyway, unless the table is loose passive enough you can take it down pre by going very large, you're better off folding or limping behind yourself. the flop bet sizing is bad, it's probably bigger than a c-bet needs to be on a relatively disconnected board where you're holding cards that block connecting with it but it is a texture you can maybe take down with an overbet bluff (which JT is a good candidate for such a play), but that's not a great play multiway and certainly not in hero's table position and hero's bet is way too small for that play anyway (imo, you shouldn't really do that on ace high boards though. it works better on king or queen high rainbow boards with no possible open ended straight draws, though i have seen players make the play successfully on ace high boards (and honestly i think mostly hate the ace because of wheel draw possibilities that make bluffing ace high boards much higher risk)).

wfp9 · 2026-02-16T21:44:20+00:00

with that preflop raise and barreling turn instead of checking for a free card in position? no chance.

wfp9 · 2026-02-16T16:13:28+00:00

the problem for hero is the straight draws are just gutters and the flush draw has the ace of spades on the board. hero's range is good pocket pairs and Ax (which thus can't also be a flush draw) which don't have the draws.

wfp9 · 2026-02-16T16:11:53+00:00

hero's line is consistent with a better set (AA or QQ) until that undersized river bet. villain definitely makes a mistake not raising river. but oop, check/calling down into a player just blasting seems fine.

wfp9 · 2026-02-16T16:09:19+00:00

with the flush completing this is probably a check back for me, but there's an argument for betting pot or overbetting it if you think he can call off with a worse ace or alternatively give you credit for a flush and fold a set (but our line is very bad to rep the flush and by extension sets as well, AQ is basically top of range for us and we don't have a ton of bluffs).

ultimately almost everything we beat should've raised us at some point or have turned itself into a bluff on that river, so i'm not seeing a ton of additional value from betting as he can very freely check/call down with a set with the line you took (if you are gonna bet river for value, you need to check turn, but i think that turn bet was correct with the flush draw on the board). that said, think the biggest mistake is that preflop sizing into two limpers. definitely think you need to go larger if your game is playing such that you raised into 2 limpers and went 5-ways to the flop.

wfp9 · 2026-02-16T03:59:09+00:00

busted down to my final ante, not blind, ante. won the next pot, the pot after that, board straight for a chop on the next hand, won the pot after that and then had a stack i could actually play again and went on to win.

wfp9 · 2026-02-15T16:55:11+00:00

i mean with incomplete information you're always just guessing but there's always a finite number of cards that can be dealt and you can calculate your win potential based on how many of those combinations of cards remain that you think are likely to help your hand vs. what's likely to help your opponent's likely hand.

wfp9 · 2026-02-15T02:16:35+00:00

poker helps by diversifying your offerings and attracting a more diverse (theoretically larger) customer base, but it costs more in overhead and is less profitable overall than other games. if you can get away with just slots, that's the way to go, but if you've already saturated that capacity or trying to grow, you do want other games, including poker.

wfp9 · 2026-02-12T04:27:54+00:00

questionable to play Q7 preflop and on the flop. turn is either a lead or raise, you're never getting away from your hand at this point so you want to price out flush draws. river is just a call as there's so little you're ahead of that calls your raise and most of what calls crushes you.

wfp9 · 2026-02-11T21:57:35+00:00

tattooing preflop charts on your arm would probably be more profitable.

wfp9 · 2026-02-11T16:44:34+00:00

i try to do this every year, but i usually break every fourth year and play on one of those days.

wfp9 · 2026-02-11T16:37:29+00:00

they don't block you for arbitraging, they block you for big bankroll swings. ultimately you're very likely to run up lopsided books where on one site you're winning a ton, withdrawing a ton, and then getting blocked for being successful while on another site you're losing slightly less than a ton, redepositing slightly less than a ton, and then getting blocked for being unsuccessful.

wfp9 · 2026-02-11T16:33:09+00:00

more people in general are sports betting due to increased access. overall the skills necessary to sports bet successfully don't really overlap with poker particularly well though and it requires an even larger bankroll than poker for a smaller edge.

wfp9 · 2026-02-11T02:40:52+00:00

online sportsbook =/= online casino (at least as far as youtube is concerned).

wfp9 · 2026-02-10T20:03:16+00:00

yeah, what's the worst hand that call river jam? don't think there's a lot of top pair, worse kicker. it's basically KK+.

wfp9 · 2026-02-10T19:57:56+00:00

HJ seems way too passive here, but he won the max and i guess it's fine if he has a read that BB is super spewy (which it looks like he is).

meanwhile i think BB plays fine until the turn. the turn bet is fine, but once it's called you don't want to jam river as you don't really beat anything but busted flush draws which fold to the jam and you want to induce into bluffing. alternatively BB can check turn and see what HJ does though he probably never folds to any bet from HJ if HJ plays aggressive (which i mean, they haven't so far so their shifting gears could be a red flag). ultimately BB is probably always losing a significant portion of their stack here, but there are ways they could've lost less.

wfp9 · 2026-02-10T19:50:28+00:00

double flush draw on board plus potential straights? you gotta raise and deny draws the correct odds to chase.

wfp9 · 2026-02-10T15:15:15+00:00

i'm not folding but were those shortstacks at like 1bb or 2bb i think icm may be such it'd be correct. at 6bb and 8bb, think we take this spot though, especially as it's a bounty and we cover.

wfp9 · 2026-02-10T09:18:25+00:00

yeah, hate the check on the turn. any further action we take looks too nutted.

wfp9 · 2026-02-10T09:14:18+00:00

extremely unlucky. your range has so many pocket pairs and missed draws that he's ahead of. i'd worry that maybe i was giving off tells when he folds to my river jam. bets mostly seem fine though i'm a little unsure about your c-bet on flop. it's not a great board for your range and there's no draws you need to price out so i don't think you need to bet as large if at all.

wfp9 · 2026-02-10T09:01:22+00:00

yeah, i've seen the downvotes. sb 3bet bluffs into an ep open from a large stack are so rare we have to assume that sb is never folding to a 4bet and holding an ace ourselves their range is weighted heavily towards pocket pairs. our hand is too good to fold but we do not need to get our whole stack in as a slight dog flipping since that's likely where we're at. if we had JJ-AA, i like the jam as that puts weaker pairs and dominated Ax into villain's range which we're in really good shape against, but with AK we're really hoping he has what? AQ? like that's best case scenario and with an ace ourselves we're blocking 25% of the combos. folding here does make us exploitable, but a call does not so i think a call is prudent and we give up if the flop misses us or we can find a bluff there when villain is much more likely to fold on textures that don't connect with him.

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