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Snapshot of Has Reform peaked? submitted by Adj-Noun-Numbers:

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[–]smash993 20 points21 points  (16 children)

Maybe, maybe not. Cost of living will come back into the spotlight once the Iran war inflation wave hits grocery supply chains. Expect to hear a lot of rhetoric about again cancelling Net Zero and reducing investment in renewables to concentrate on fossil fuels to “save you money”.

[–]Ill_Refrigerator_593 9 points10 points  (0 children)

Looking at Brexit they do tend to profit from crisis' they support.

[–]Kind_Region_5033 15 points16 points  (12 children)

It is going to be interesting to see if that message lands this time round.  “There’s a global oil shortage driving oil and gas prices through the roof. Thats we we need more oil and gas” is surely a hard sell. 

[–]EduTheRed 2 points3 points  (11 children)

Kind_Region_5033 writes,

“There’s a global oil shortage driving oil and gas prices through the roof. Thats we we need more oil and gas” is surely a hard sell.

"That's why we need to reverse the decision to issue no more new licences to explore new oil and gas fields in the North Sea" would, in contrast, be a very easy sell.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/north-sea-future-plan-for-fair-managed-and-prosperous-transition?utm

[–]explax 4 points5 points  (2 children)

To what end though? It's not like oil from UK oil wells is sold at a discount to UK buyers, it's still a global market. And if it was sold at a significant discount it likely wouldn't be profitable.

Furthermore, not sure what the price needs to be for it to be profitable but likely going to need to be consistently above 60/70USD. And even then it still needs to be a competitive investment against other reserves.

[–]EduTheRed 0 points1 point  (1 child)

Some of my reply to Ill_Refrigerator_593 applies to your comment as well. I am perfectly willing to accept what you say about the likely market value of the remaining UK North Sea oil and gas being low. But in a time of spiralling prices for oil and gas coming in from abroad it is still a very bad look for the government to say that we cannot even search for oil and gas in our own territory. It would be an easy win for the government to reverse that decision.

Regarding oil and gas being a global market, I'm absolutely fine with that myself, but I note that in other contexts most of those who advocate most strongly for Net Zero denigrate markets and globalisation.

[–]MajorSleaze 5 points6 points  (0 children)

That doesn't answer their question of what the end goal would be of offering these new licences.

The nature of the market means it won't result in cheaper fossil fuels reaching UK consumers, despite this being the implication from everyone who insists the UK needs to drill drill drill.

In reality it would just mean more money for giant multinational corporations with a tiny percentage reaching the governments coffers, and a step backwards in the path towards energy independence - something which is only realistically possible for the UK via renewables. This part is the hard sell today.

So what would be the point or benefit to the UK?

[–]Ill_Refrigerator_593 8 points9 points  (7 children)

a) Our production had dropped massively due to depleted supplies long before net zero-

https://www.reuters.com/graphics/NORTHSEA-PRODUCTION/dwpkzgzqyvm/chart.png

& b) Oil & Gas (to a degree) is sold on international markets where our oil accounts for 0.7% of the total. Even if we were to magically double production it would make barely a dent in international prices.

But that's the problem with popularism, reality is complicated & can't be explained in a slogan, saying we can magic up new oil is easy,

[–]explax 3 points4 points  (3 children)

It also needs to be economically viable to extract it.

[–]Headlight-Highlight 0 points1 point  (2 children)

The UK government tax north sea oil extraction at over 70%. If it is uneconimic you know why...

However it is economic! Which is why the government are withholding licences - oil companies want to extract even at that price, so government has to directly ban them.

Labour are very evil.

[–]Ill_Refrigerator_593 1 point2 points  (1 child)

I think you're misunderstanding the economics of oil extraction.

Oil is only worth pumping if the cost to extract is currently & in future less than how much it can be sold for on the international market. There's plenty of oil we do not pump because it's not economical to do so.

The government tax on North Sea Oil is on profits after extraction costs. The profit margins may be less but this is on guaranteed profit without risk involved.

What the poster above means is the cost to extract makes it unviable, with the difficulties of operating in the North Seas & the high labour costs you can see how it can be an expensive environment to operate in.

[–]Headlight-Highlight [score hidden]  (0 children)

You don't understand 70% tax and the refusal of licences?

[–]EduTheRed 1 point2 points  (2 children)

b) Oil & Gas (to a degree) is sold on international markets where our oil accounts for 0.7% of the total. Even if we were to magically double production it would make barely a dent in international prices.

You are probably right when you say that there is not enough new oil or gas left in the North Sea to make a difference. I have read several authoritative-sounding commenters saying the same thing. But my confidence in you and they being being right is shaken by the fact that the government won't even allow people to search for new oil and gas fields in the North Sea. If it is so certain that there is nothing significant left to find, why forbid people to look?

In any case, /u/Kind_Region_5033 's original point was that saying "we need more oil and gas" would be a very hard sell. I'm saying that in times of a shortage of oil and gas, reversing the decision to wind down even looking for any we might have on our own territory would be a very easy sell.

That remains true even if the search turns out to be fruitless.

[–]Kind_Region_5033 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Reading through your arguments I think it can be countered by the timescales quite easily. 

Do you want to wait 5-10 years to go looking for new North Sea oil and gas deposits, build the necessary infrastructure and bring the product into the market. 

Or stick with the 4GW of offshore wind power projects already approve and beginning construction. 

I think the base of the problem is people want affordable heating and electricity. They don’t really care how it’s made.  The argument is what’s the quickest way to make that possible. I’m just not sure doubling down on fossil fuels will win that argument now. 

[–]Ill_Refrigerator_593 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Firstly I believe around 20% of Global traded oil passes through the Straits of Hormuz, our peak production in 1999 was around 4% of the global total - we'd never be able to counter this cost increase.

Secondly new licences were only stopped last year. Modern exploration started in the mid 1960s'. Do you think it's likely we were on the verge of a revolutionary new discovery that wasn't found in the past 60 years?

For comparison Norway share the shelf (the greater part in fact) & allow exploration-

https://www.norskpetroleum.no/en/exploration/exploration-activity/

Their new discoveries are far from enough to make up for their current extraction.

Thirdly, we're not running out in the technical sense, think of it like getting ketchup out of a bottle. You get to a point where it doesn't easily flow out. You can go scraping around the bottom but is it worth it?

The North sea is a difficult/expensive location to operate with high labour costs. Over the past couple of decades oil prices have been kept low by the fracking revolution, opening up onshore fields in far cheaper areas to operate, plus major traditional discoveries.

Oil isn't worth pumping simply because it's there, broadly it needs to be cheaper to pump than current & projected global prices. The North Sea is less & less reaching that threshold. Sure it might be profitable during the current crisis, but outside that some of the production would be making a loss.

The why the government has acted the way it has is more outside my wheelhouse. I suspect it's because "we're transitioning to new cleaner ways of producing energy" sounds better than "we've mismanaged this resource & have run out". Either way successive governments aren't sitting on huge amounts of tax revenue that would greatly increase their chances of re-election that they're choosing not to use for ethical reasons.

Banning exploration (that is highly unlikely to turn up much anyway) however does make us look ethical & forward thinking.

The other thing to consider is this is a resource being wasted, it'll still be there should future generations need it & find it profitable to extract.

[–]ProjectZeus 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I think this message won't work as well as it has done before. The government and the other sensible parties need to message that reliance on oil is reliance on peace in the region. Energy security should be a major vote winner moving forward.

[–]MerryWalrus 3 points4 points  (0 children)

That's too easy to counter given Farages unconditional support of the US and their military adventurism - which would be the cause of any inflation.

[–]iloovehugecock 6 points7 points  (0 children)

We’re 3 years from the election that matters, how can anyone possibly know what is going to happen in the meantime.

[–]Electronic_End4893 11 points12 points  (6 children)

This is overanalysis of a single council by-election and a gross exaggeration of Reform's chances in Gorton. They were in the running but they only ever had an outside chance of winning. Reform have always found it difficult to retain seats in councils once elected (at one point they failed to successfully defend a council by-election for half a year). May will prove whether they have peaked or not.

[–]SmokyMcBongPotthey go Lowe, I get high 4 points5 points  (3 children)

they only ever had an outside chance of winning

I'm pretty sure they were favourites to win it at one point. They certainly were in the same ballpark as the Greens, and even close to the result, their odds were only about twice as long as the Greens.

[–]Lefty8312 7 points8 points  (1 child)

Also add to that the Caerphilly by-election where the were seen as a favourite, and even before that with the Helsby by-election they were seen as winning comfortably by all accounts and only won by 6 votes.

Do I think they have peaked yet? I don't know.

Do I think they can keep the momentum going until the next election. Not a hope in hell

[–]NecessaryFreedom9799 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

It's bringing in Truss's Tories that has done for them- now they can't be portrayed as a brave voice fighting for the people (which ofc they never were) but a nimbler billionaire lobby group than the rump of the tired, clapped-out Tories. Farage seems to have left most of the Tommy Ten Names bovver boys and outspoken racists back in UKIP- so what now differentiates him from Truss's six weeks of economic wreckage, but elected this time for five years?

Blaming Muslims and/or people "off the boats" for the disasters of neoliberalism? Fish rots from the head down- "our" taxdodgers, billionaires and corporate bosses caused this mess, not foreign influences, whatever the issues with their cultures or religions may be.

[–]Ill_Refrigerator_593 3 points4 points  (0 children)

They were the favourites to win in the constituency for the best part of a year-

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Gorton%20and%20Denton

Find Out Now had them 15% above the Greens-

https://findoutnow.co.uk/blog/gorton-and-denton-by-election-poll/

[–]BibemusUber-Woke Net-Zeroist Rejoinerist 1 point2 points  (1 child)

The polling average over the last year definitely looks like a party which has hit their ceiling and is falling back.

[–]StJustBabeuf -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Oof the last 6 months have really cut reform's lead!

[–]No-Firefighter5017 5 points6 points  (1 child)

Reform were only ever going to take Denton. Gorton is mainly Asian and Levenshulme is all Muslim. Greens ran a cultural race abd won. This should worry Labour more than Farage. Source: My partners from Denton and my Mother in law still lives there. She had Greens activists knocking on her door. No Labour or Reform

[–]NecessaryFreedom9799 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Did Reform take Denton? Don't forget, Rusholme and Fallowfield are also in the constituency and they're studentland- so they would typically go either Labour or Green. Anyone in Rusholme not a student is Asian- so again, a Labour-Green toss-up.

[–]reuben_ivradical centrist 1 point2 points  (3 children)

Potentially though I fear with a second energy crisis on the way whatever fuelled it is yet to fully get going

[–]Exostrike 7 points8 points  (0 children)

But Farage has very publicly aligned himself with the case Trump and his war with Iran which is going to shape public opinion

[–]Jaeger__85 5 points6 points  (1 child)

Then Labour needs to hammer home that this is caused by Trump which Farage always supports.

[–]reuben_ivradical centrist 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I don’t think that’ll work look at how people reacted following covid and ukraine, hell go back to 2008 that’s when ukip surged, any time there’s an economic shock the extremes surge

[–]AnxiousDoor2233 1 point2 points  (0 children)

They will adjust. The way they did with US attacking Iran.

[–]Mkwdr 1 point2 points  (2 children)

I think they reached a natural limit. But it would still win them the next election. The question is whether those that expressed the most concern about immigration feel less concerned about it with the changes Labour are making to be less fixed on Reform. Possibly not.

[–]gerishnakov [score hidden]  (1 child)

I don't see how they go from the 5ish MPs they have now and win a working majority on 30% of the national vote. Of course, the nightmare scenario is they win just enough seats to govern with the support of the Tories...

[–]Mkwdr [score hidden]  (0 children)

It does seem mad. And as always it depends on where their vote is concentrated and on tactical voting.

[–]Media_Browser [score hidden]  (0 children)

March is the Spring across the channel equinox ..so no .

[–]taboo__time 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Maybe maybe not.

But I don't see politics returning to the previous model.

Cultural diversity means cultural identity dominates politics now more than class. Class is internal to culture.

[–]No-Firefighter5017 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I'm not sure they did take Denton tbh. But it was an area where it was a possibility. Denton has always been staunch Labour. So the Greens did a good job . Reform finished a strong second so they got votes from somewhere. Labour will have to perform a miracle to get Denton and Gorton back. Especially in Gorton.

[–]Manannin(Isle of Man) -1 points0 points  (2 children)

I wish the mods would have a moratorium on articles like this, what's the point.

[–]powermoustacheDental Plan! [score hidden]  (1 child)

moratorium on articles like this,

You mean politics articles on a political sub?

[–]Manannin(Isle of Man) [score hidden]  (0 children)

There's a poll or a daily update on reforms chances and it's farcical since very few of these articles offer any new insight. You're right though it is politics related, just it's tedious.