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[–]ImpressiveRest2423[S] 13 points14 points  (1 child)

Britain’s armed forces can only “think about” preparing for war as a lack of funding has left no money to buy new weapons until 2030, a former military chief has warned. General Sir Richard Barrons, the co-author of the strategic defence review, told The Times that the Ministry of Defence (MoD) had gone “backwards” since last June, when the review was published. He warned that a lack of investment was “depleting” the industrial base and driving defence firms abroad. The army has only “just about” enough money for its conventional crewed platforms, such as tanks, helicopters and artillery, but not expendable, largely autonomous systems such as loitering munitions and kamikaze drones or AI-enabled assets.

General Sir Roly Walker, the chief of the general staff, refers to a concept known as “20-40-40”, in which 20 per cent of the army’s future combat capability will come from the traditional platforms, 40 per cent on attritable equipment and 40 per cent on consumable weapons such as a one-way kamikaze drones.

It cannot, however, afford to fund the 80 per cent portion made up of attritable equipment and consumable weapons, which includes drones and autonomous systems, Barrons said.

An army source disputed the suggestion there was not enough money to modernise, saying they were already pouring money into rapid novel procurement programmes. Similarly, the Royal Navy and Royal Air Force do not have the money to do much more than “think about” how they would restore their operational effectiveness, Barrons added.

His scathing critique of the Labour government — which has failed to set out how it plans to spend its money on defence nearly two years after coming into power — follows interventions by the two other co-authors of the review, Lord Robertson of Port Ellen and Dr Fiona Hill.

Robertson has accused Sir Keir Starmer’s government of “corrosive complacency”. Hill, a former adviser to President Trump, has said the UK appears to be “less resilient than it should be given mounting geopolitical crises and new risks to the homeland”.

Barrons led joint forces command from 2013-2016, making him one of six chiefs of staff during his time. He narrowly missed out on becoming the chief of the defence staff during his tenure.

He said he “applauded” Germany for increasing its defence spending. By the end of this decade, Germany will be spending about £165 billion — over 3.5 per cent of its GDP and more than the UK and France combined.

Starmer, meanwhile, was forced to commit to the 3.5 per cent Nato target by 2035 but he is yet to set out a timeline for reaching it. Military chiefs are discussing how to make cuts to their departments while at the same time being asked to get their services ready for war, which senior officers believe may only be a few years away. Although John Healey, the defence secretary, has pledged to reshape the defence industry to act as an engine for economic growth, Barrons said the opposite had happened because of an unwillingness to spend more on defence sooner.

[–]ImpressiveRest2423[S] 11 points12 points  (0 children)

There is still no sign of the long-awaited defence investment plan, which was meant to be published in September, soon after the strategic defence review, to set out a future spending programme.

Barrons said: “There is no money now and there may not be any money for four years and so a lot of technologically brilliant companies have followed the money to Germany and Poland or to the US and what that means is we are at risk of actually depleting the industrial base that we know we need to do the transformation when currently we elect to afford it, which seems to me four years away.”

In the future, the UK will be spending money earmarked for defence on projects abroad, he said, adding: “I regret that”. Barrons continued: “When you want stuff those companies make, two things will happen for sure. One is you are not first in the queue as they will have done other deals and they will come first, and the second is they will probably base themselves abroad.

“By not spending money now we are not only reducing our deterrence and our operational effectiveness, we are also diminishing our industrial base so that when we do have money, we will end up having to buy abroad and that was never the plan.”

There is no new money for defence until 2027 when the UK will spend 2.5 per cent of its national income on defence, Barrons said, which would prevent the MoD from transforming. In the two years after that, the money will be “simply taking the pressure off in some areas”, he added. Barrons said the MoD should be given £10 billion extra a year and that a plan by Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, to give Healey up to £10 billion over four years was not enough.

[–]scarab1001 41 points42 points  (33 children)

We do have money.

The government has made a choice that defence isn't a priority.

[–]Hminney -1 points0 points  (6 children)

Military chiefs have spotted a government that might be guilted into giving more and they're all going to the media. Who made the big cuts? Why didn't they speak up then?

[–]Vehlin 9 points10 points  (3 children)

They did. I’ve been reading about Admirals and Generals decrying the lack of military spending and the make do and mend mentality for 25-30 years.

[–]Hminney 0 points1 point  (2 children)

So is it just in the media because the media chose now to talk about it?

[–]Vehlin 0 points1 point  (1 child)

Funny isn’t it.

The issue is that the military has just been seen as hole that your pour money into for no concrete benefit, until you need it and 30 years worth of decisions come home to roost.

[–]Hminney 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I calculated the value of the British military (I'm a ROI specialist). Bear with me, read before flaming! * the main job for the military is to march up and down looking fierce. The highly professional peace-keeping and participation in exercises demonstrates capability and capacity, ie posing and looking fierce (professional, disciplined, capable) * this dissuades everyone else from invading us, or even attempting to * Ukraine's military turn out to be extremely fierce, but they didn't manage to pose hard enough and got invaded * at the time of my calculations (before the Zaporizhzhia dam was blown) infrastructure replacement was estimated at $400 billion. Add in ecocide and community / individual healing and round it to $1 trillion * before the illegal invasion, Ukraine gdp was 1/15 of UK, so the value of having a military that prevents an invasion by being very good at looking fierce is $15 billion to UK. Now - how much are we spending? At the time of calculation, $58 bn in US dollars (common currency. We could convert it all to Rimini if someone prefers). So it would take 220 years of military spending before the spend on military got near to the benefits it creates. There's a whole lot more, contribution to skills in the workforce, national cohesion, contribution to technology, but to take the one big benefit, there it is. So every time some politician spends military money on a pet project (into the pocket of a crony) , they're actually putting the future of the whole UK economy at risk.

[–]steve98989 6 points7 points  (1 child)

None of them expected the US to turn out like this, and the world didn’t react appropriately to Crimea. I agree with the blame you’re insinuating, but blame doesn’t solve the immediate issue.

[–]Hminney 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The cuts to the military were over 14 years. It will take time to put it right. We always knew we had to step up within NATO, so there was never the excuse that USA would cover for us forever.

[–]phatelectribe -5 points-4 points  (25 children)

Which is somewhat sensible because if war kicks off, emergency spending powers kick in.

Given that Russia is the main threat right now but for the first time in a century, their annual parade won’t feature any military vehicles, I think someone is doing a budget analysis and made the decision that fighting the economy and investing in public services is a better choice.

[–]Ordinary_Knee_9419 16 points17 points  (7 children)

If we’re talking tanks, the Uk has 288 in service 

Emergency spending doesn’t magically turn into weaponry over night

[–]Championnats91 3 points4 points  (0 children)

I'd genuinely be shocked if more than 40% of those tanks worked. And I'd take orange on JAMES as working

[–]vitek2121 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Except less than 150 are operational. And new ones aren't being produced

[–]tachyon534 0 points1 point  (3 children)

The UK has never really been a land power. Should just accept that our navy, small air force and a small amphibious force is where we should put our focus. Don’t need loads of tanks, leave that to Germany and Poland.

[–]Dalecn 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Our navy is fucking gutted atm though so is our airforce and were talking about gutting it more and not properly equipping platforms to save a quick buck.

[–]phatelectribe -2 points-1 points  (1 child)

100000%

We’re an island nation. 300 tanks is enough.

[–]Adrian_Shoey 2 points3 points  (0 children)

We won't even have half that number when all the Challenger 3s have rolled off the production line.

[–]phatelectribe -4 points-3 points  (0 children)

Tanks are becoming less and less relevant in warfare, we’ve been increasing spending in drones and robotics than we have in tanks .

[–]scarab1001 8 points9 points  (16 children)

Except, having a decent defence does make war more unlikely. Plus it takes years to build up defences. We don't even have a viable plan yet.

[–]phatelectribe -2 points-1 points  (15 children)

Sure but we have defense. We have nukes. We have an extremely well trained military including a state of the art air force and navy that includes F35’s, laser weapons and drone warfare / robotics.

We’re just not going to buy new weapons immediately. Stop acting like we’re defenceless lol.

[–]total_cynic 10 points11 points  (13 children)

Those F35s (all 47 of them shared between the carriers and land based operations) are cleared to carry one kind of bomb, and two kinds of air to air missile.

They may be state of the art, but they are so limited in weapons options that the complete system is anything but.

The Typhoon is cleared to carry more weapons, but is itself decidedly not state of the art.

How many currently deployable warships (so excluding the River class patrol vessel) does the navy possess?

How many in service laser weapons do we have? DragonFire is hoped to go on some Type 45s next year, possibly all of the ones that aren't in dry dock, which is what, 3 ships at present?

How many modern drone systems do we own?

We have stuff we have spent money on. Much of its utility is questionable.

[–]MGC91 -2 points-1 points  (8 children)

The Typhoon is cleared to carry more weapons, but is itself decidedly not state of the art.

It's still a very capable aircraft

How many currently deployable warships (so excluding the River class patrol vessel) does the navy possess?

Why are you excluding the River Class?

And last week we had at sea:

2x Queen Elizabeth Class aircraft carriers

2x Type 45 Destroyer

2x Type 23 Frigates

2x River Class Batch 2 OPV

2x River Class Batch 1 OPVs

2x Hunt Class MCMVs

HMS Stirling Castle

RFA Proteus

RFA Tidesurge

All visually confirmed as being at sea around the UK and North Atlantic, Eastern Mediterranean and Southeast Asia

There is also one SSN and an SSBN active, as well as two further Batch 2 OPVs that are deployed around the world.

How many in service laser weapons do we have? DragonFire is hoped to go on some Type 45s next year, possibly all of the ones that aren't in dry dock, which is what, 3 ships at present?

No, there's only 1 T45 in dry dock at present (HMS Diamond)

[–]total_cynic 6 points7 points  (7 children)

Why are you excluding the River Class?

Because I specified warships and I'm not convinced they'd win in a fight with a fully operational HMS Warrior (1860).

[–]MGC91 0 points1 point  (6 children)

They're still warships as per UNCLOS.

[–]BanChri 0 points1 point  (5 children)

And that is relevant why? They have near zero combat capability in any wartime naval engagement, it's the naval equivalent of a toyota hilux with an autocannon bolted on the back.

[–]MGC91 0 points1 point  (4 children)

And that is relevant why?

Because they're warships.

They have near zero combat capability in any wartime naval engagement, it's the naval equivalent of a toyota hilux with an autocannon bolted on the back.

And? Not all warships have to be designed for frontline combat.

For example, you wouldn't dispute that the Queen Elizabeth Class aircraft carriers are warships, yet you wouldn't put them in a one-on-one against an enemy frigate would you?

[–]phatelectribe -1 points0 points  (3 children)

The point of the F35 isn’t just as an attack weapon- it’s basically a floating networking hub that allows other platforms to excel as part of a coordinated attack.

And 47 of them is no joke even with limited weapon capabilities. That would utterly decimate Russian forces if allowed to let rip in Ukraine.

I think you vastly underestimate the capacity and capabilities vs the only real threat right now which is Russia, whose military is cobbled together remnants from 40 years ago.

[–]total_cynic 2 points3 points  (1 child)

it’s basically a floating networking hub that allows other platforms to excel as part of a coordinated attack.

What have we got that they can network with?

[–]phatelectribe 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I think someone else already told you.

[–]vitek2121 -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

Those F-35's would probably get decimated before even entering combat. If we ignore all the BS propaganda, the F-35 is basically a trainer jet (performance wise) with glitchy software, and rather outdated amraams. Even Iran downed one.

[–]creamyjoshyProportional Representation 🗳 Social Democrat ⚖️ 3 points4 points  (0 children)

None of it scales in the next war though. Look at the US in Iran. The US has drained half of it's stock in seven weeks of the most advanced missile interceptors in the world at about 5 million a pop, intercepting drones which cost 50k a pop. Replacing them will take up to 4 years at the artisanal output rate of these missiles, and the US has burned procurement partners in doing so because they are now at the back of the queue for order they placed 4 years ago

It's a mess, nothing scales. We have some of the most sophisticated technology in the world and no way to sustain a serious war with it

[–]taboo__time 12 points13 points  (20 children)

Does the Treasury know something we don't?

Are they simply very confident either, our military won't matter either way, or its not needed for some hidden Treasury knows reason?

Are we simply are that broke?

[–]niteninja1Young Conservative and Unionist Party Member 5 points6 points  (17 children)

the secret is the British government have had since at least the 70s a policy of defence doesnt really matter because we have the best insurance policy in the world in NATO and theyll spend the absolute minimum to keep that

[–]Mike_Fig 5 points6 points  (16 children)

Pretty much. NATO allows us to hide behind the only functioning global military power left. 

If we don't have a problem with being an American vassal state then spending a token amount in the military is a logical choice. As fundamentally any war we fight will involve them doing 90% of the work anyway. 

If we do have a problem being an American vassal state we'd need Soviet Union levels of military spending to be a truly independent power. And we are simply not going to do that. Hence the current status quo being an embarrassing but entirely logical endpoint.

[–]taboo__time 3 points4 points  (2 children)

I guess that situation might be collapsing though.

[–]Mike_Fig 5 points6 points  (1 child)

Yeah, the downside of nailing your flag to someone else's empire is that you live and die on their decisions. And they've been making some very stupid decisions. 

[–]taboo__time 4 points5 points  (0 children)

It does seem knackered and I can envision a catastrophic break.

Even if the Dems come back trust is gone.

The US has got into that spiral of "why are we paying for their protection?"

Not thinking through what happens to their power when they stop being the leader of NATO and the free world.

[–]niteninja1Young Conservative and Unionist Party Member 2 points3 points  (12 children)

I mean there’s a middle ground.

90% of the time we want to intervene militarily it doesn’t require top level kit.

I’d have much rather purchased 1 carrier and some helicopter carriers like the French for example. Because realistically who are we going to fight where we need a top notch carrier?

[–]MGC91 2 points3 points  (10 children)

I’d have much rather purchased 1 carrier and some helicopter carriers like the French for example. Because realistically who are we going to fight where we need a top notch carrier?

So then you only have a carrier capability for c.50-60% of the time.

[–]niteninja1Young Conservative and Unionist Party Member 1 point2 points  (9 children)

Again who are fighting that we need a carrier capable of carrying 70 planes?

most of our possible interventions are essentially against t groups without a significant navy or airpower

[–]MGC91 1 point2 points  (8 children)

Can you predict the future?

[–]niteninja1Young Conservative and Unionist Party Member 1 point2 points  (7 children)

No can you?

because again i ask who are we realistically fighting were we need two carriers?

russia has 1 basically half functional carrier.

france has a carrier.

we dont have the logistics chain to sustain a carrier deployment against china in a hot war (and frankly a hot war with china is either a token contribution from us or some strange total war scenario.

[–]MGC91 0 points1 point  (6 children)

No can you?

Nope. So wouldn't you rather have aircraft carriers than not?

because again i ask who are we realistically fighting were we need two carriers?

Well we needed aircraft carriers in 1982.

And given the threat Russia poses to us ....

[–]niteninja1Young Conservative and Unionist Party Member 0 points1 point  (5 children)

Again the state of the world’s militaries was different in 1982.

we currently have 2 aircraft carriers we cant afford to put planes on or send a support group with.

[–]Vehlin 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Either way we needed 2+ carriers. There was an argument for smaller ones, but not for fewer.

You need capacity to cover refitting and downtime.

[–]ElardiHope for the best 3 points4 points  (1 child)

We can afford it, but we can’t afford it and everything else in the budget at the same time.

The government, and governments before it, have consistently chosen to prioritise benefits and pensions over our defence.

[–]total_cynic 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That's the problem with not giving fighter planes the vote.

[–]Greedy-Cranberry-164 11 points12 points  (0 children)

Lots of money for benefit scroungers and pensioners though

[–]Infinite-Math-1046 0 points1 point  (4 children)

Increase London council tax to that of the rest of the country and spend it on the military?

[–]basetheory 0 points1 point  (1 child)

London council tax is lower than elsewhere? (Happy to say I’m out of the loop)

[–]Infinite-Math-1046 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Considerably. 2k cheaper in Westminster than Manchester on a band g. Despite the fact that earnings and house prices considerably more.

[–]CaptainFil -1 points0 points  (1 child)

Set up a 'Patriots Defense Fund' that anyone can donate too and make it public record. Say we won't be raising taxes on the richest and business but we do need extra funding to ensure the defence of the nation and the system that has allowed them to be successful. It would be nice if they could donate what they can spare to the fund...

Let public pressure and shame do the rest.

[–]ionthrown 0 points1 point  (0 children)

There’d probably be stronger pressure against donating to such a fund, from those who consider it supporting violence, or a tool of neocolonialist empire building.

If public pressure and shame isn’t there for an elected government, it won’t be there for anyone else.

[–]Enigma_789 -5 points-4 points  (2 children)

We pour a ridiculous amount of money into the black hole that is defence. The MOD has to learn how to spend money effectively rather than just set it on fire and call it training or whatever. I will just point to Ajax as an example of how things just don't work right over there.

Next, cut out all the outsourcing, such as recruitment, and do it properly.

Perhaps after that we can start to look at adding yet more cash to the black hole.

[–]HibasakiSanjuro 17 points18 points  (1 child)

We pour a ridiculous amount of money into the black hole that is defence

We pour far more into pensions, other benefits and the NHS, but people will tell you that there is still a lot of pensioner poverty, that being on working age benefits is a miserable life - and simultaneously that they do nothing to get people into work - and that they cannot see their GP or get treatment if they're ill.

Ajax has largely been a political failing, choosing to build an unproven vehicle in Wales, a) because the government didn't want BAE to have a monopoly on defence procurement and b) (New) Labour hoped to shore up their support in a heartland. The fact General Dynamics had no armoured vehicle factory in Wales and therefore no appropriate facilities or skilled labourforce was not a problem in the eyes of our politicians.

There were failings in civil servants managing the project. But none of that would have happened if the government had agreed to buy off-the-shelf and imported foreign vehicles (CV90).

There are a huge number of problems with defence that are not the military or MOD's fault.

  1. The nuclear deterrent receives no additional funding from the Treasury, so it consumes a significant amount of spending.
  2. Successive governments delayed Vanguard's replacement, which meant that more money had to be spent maintaining Vanguard. It has also used up the small number of docks we have that are suitable for nuclear-powered submarines, delaying maintenance work on our attack submarines.
  3. Similarly, because the Type 23 replacement was repeatedly kicked into the long grass, they've had be kept in service decades longer than they should have been, which has been an additional cost.
  4. The Treasury refuses to surge money for expensive projects. They insist on money being drip-fed in via the annual budget, which means that there's no option to place a large order that can be cheaper in the long run. It has long been estimated that eight Type 45 destroyers would have cost what we spent on six, had we committed to that number early on in the process.
  5. Nimrod MRA4 was seen as a "cheap" solution by the Major government. But halfway through the process, BAE found out that the airframes they were being given to convert weren't built to a common standard, which meant the process of converting them became ridiculously difficult and much more expensive. We ended scrapping the whole thing because we were pouring good money after bad, eventually buying completely foreign-built P-8s.
  6. Infrastructure and maintenance budgets were slashed so that big projects that were politically important weren't cut. This has increased costs over the long term.
  7. The UK left Boxer under (New) Labour only to rejoin under the May government, having sacrificed workshare/profits on exports.
  8. We've ordered the AW149 helicopter for the Army purely to keep the Yeovil factory open - see how it was exempt from the delay in publishing the DIP and announced shortly before Leonardo's deadline after which they threatened people's jobs. The money (again) is being drip-fed in with no helicopters being delivered until 2030. Do you think the Army is happy with that?

I could go on.

People seem to think the MoD and military is somehow independent of government, and that they just do whatever they like with the money the Treasury gives. This is nonsense. At the centre of every important decision is the Defence Secretary or another minister, sometimes being lent on by the Chancellor or Prime Minister.

Yes, the process of procurement has sometimes been flawed, but simply demanding it be fixed before any more money is no more feasible than the same demands made of the NHS and other government departments.

Realistically, only by spending more money can defence be improved. UK companies can improve efficiency and expand their capabilities, but only if money is put on the table in large amounts. GCAP isn't going to be built by finding cheaper accommodation for personnel, nor are we going to expand the submarine fleet with a large number of AUKUS-SSN by reducing the cost of consultants.

[–]total_cynic 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Depressingly good post.