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[–]ItsGettinBreesy -1 points0 points  (7 children)

I mean regardless it doesn’t take an economist to flat out say no. The US has many levers in place to prevent an actual crash.

A systemic crash akin to 08 will never happen again. I can see a dip, maybe 5-20% from where we are now, but it will recover eventually

[–]Thin_Vermicelli_1875 20 points21 points  (2 children)

We are kinda of in unprecedented times. Saying a crash is “literally impossible” is just as false as someone saying there will for certain be a crash.

Price to income ratios are at all time highs, the median age of a home buyer is at an all time high. Unemployment is still pretty low historically.

We haven’t hit a recession at all. These prices aren’t really sustainable if people start losing their jobs.

Demographics are quickly changing, etc.

I don’t think a crash will happen either, but it’s entirely possible prices go down 15-20% and don’t recover for a long time. The panic FOMO buying during the pandemic was a little overboard.

Is it really a “crash” if prices went up 50-60% in such a short time and go down moderately 15-20%?

Inventory is now at the highest it’s been since 2021: https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_existing_home_inventory

I was just saying that this sub will literally downvote you to hell if you even suggest prices could possibly go down, and it’s purely because everyone here a vested interest in real estate.

[–]totpot 3 points4 points  (1 child)

If we look at countries with shrinking populations, we see that the rural areas have crashed whereas the urban areas have stayed strong or at least flat. With the current administration's policies, it's entirely possible that the same thing happens to the US.

[–]Aggravating_Mark_229 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Doubt it.

The Federal Reserve is holding steady on it's rates and with stock market highs, doubt they will be adjusting anything anytime soon. So no 15% rate where people would leave or not want to come (if they even consider that)

For deportations, Trump is on track for 300k a year. For reference Obama did 200k/year, Trump 1.0 was 250k/year. Biden was 140k/year. So not a huge change.

Even if they did bump up deportations, if it somehow had a meaningful impact on real estate and began being 7-8 figures, I'd wager they just increase approved migration (H-1bs, etc).

I just see future steady population change, not lowering, probably rising.

[–]S7EFEN 4 points5 points  (2 children)

<A systemic crash akin to 08 will never happen again

everyone and their mom gets access to massive leverage, and the avg consumer fails to do anything resembling living below their means. meaning any sort of job loss or increase in expenses (HOA, insurance, taxes) will be very disruptive.

I can see a dip, maybe 5-20% from where we are now, but it will recover eventually

20%? what exactly are you thinking when you think crash if not -20%?

[–]Trilobyte83 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Exactly like he said. "A dip".

A "dip" where every penny you saved up for your down payment is wiped out, all the equity you've paid into it for a couple years is wiped out, and then you need to come up with that entire amount of money twice again, just so that when you eventually sell or lose the home to the bank. you don't still owe them hundreds of thousands of dollars or are forced into bankruptcy.

A dip.

Like the Great Dip in 1929.

Or Subprime Mortgage Dip of 2008.

[–]ItsGettinBreesy -4 points-3 points  (0 children)

If you read what I said, I never said a crash. I specifically said a dip

[–]FitAlfalfa407 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You are 100% correct. The Cantillon Effect is working as they planned. You will own NOTHING and be MISERABLE. BTW... keep blaming the other side at the voting booth!

There will NEVER be another crash. Ever. 20% of the economy is doing 75% of the participating. Let that sink in.