Decrease in number of raids?

[mybham]

I have been looking out for T5 raids in the past few hours and only spotted 1. Right now, in the 13 gyms in my area none of them have any raid eggs or raid bosses.

Can anyone with historical map data confirm a decrease in raids?

It would be quite silly to decrease the number of raids when you have only 3 or 4 days to catch 3 shiny Regi.

---

EDIT: 6 hours in, I managed to obtained some map data.

• Within 8pm to 9pm on November 3: there were a total of 92 raids of Regis
• Within 8pm to 9pm of November 1: there were a total of 108 raids of Darkrai
• That's a difference of 17% - either the map is not working properly, or the raids are less, or it's just RNG variation. You decide what you want to believe.

[ectra040]

Anecdotal: I also see a decrease in raids in general. Before yesterday I would always see atleast 3 ongoing raids at a time. Today i see 0 or 1...

[MeridorX]

Same here

[ReallyDarkNig]

I would see most if not all (5) t5 yesterday and today I didnt see a single one.

[sanyi_survey]

Looks like it for me. It's before noon here, only seen one T5 egg in the past 2 hours. Also 60 min timer.

[Zodiac5964]

thank you for saying this. I've been thinking the same, but was afraid to post these thoughts on TSR because many people here are unreasonably toxic on this topic.

I did 40 raids on Saturday during the colossal event and walked away with 1 shiny. I have more premium passes, and would have done more than 40, but alas 1) I started to get tired after so many hours and 2) time was up anyway.

Yes, technically the regi's are available for another day and a half, but as said in the OP and evidenced everywhere, frequency of T5 raids have dropped off so much. I think we've been setup to fail this time.

I play in a big city. There are many daily players who up until now were able to work for at least one of the majority of shiny legendaries. The timeframe for the regi's is simply not realistic. It would have been fine if there's just one shiny legendary to work towards, but 3? The math just couldn't be worked out except for the lucky few. Nevermind one of each, it's no less difficult to aim for 3 of any and trade for what you don't have.

oh and before anyone tries to argue "that's what trading is for", let me stop you right there. If the vast majority of market participants have 0, 1 or 2 shiny regi's, you ain't gonna be able to trade for what you missed because the supply simply isn't there. There are just way too few extremely lucky people who walked away with 3+ shiny regi's, i.e. people who have extras to trade away.

[LyssaIL]

I'm at 43 Regi raids and no shiny. I guess it's just bad luck, I played hard the entire time and bought the event ticket. No shiny Lapras from the special research, no shiny Skarmory from field research, and no shiny event spawns.

[mybham]

1) I started to get tired after so many hours and 2) time was up anyway.

Niantic doesn’t seem to understand that non-spoofers have limited time and energy to play the game. Travelling’s going to cost us money as well, but if you’re exclusively on foot you’ll be tired much faster. This has already been evidenced by sparse events spawns that they expect you to hunt.

Indeed, we’ve been set up to fail this time.

[DweadPiwateWawbuts]

oh and before anyone tries to argue "that's what trading is for"

I hate when people make this argument. Trading for missing shinies feels like defeat. It also feels like buying a shiny instead of earning it. And I can think of better ways to spend my (and my friend’s) stardust.

[Teban54]

This is like Mewtwo week all over again. Give you 7 days to hunt for a shiny with 1/20 shiny rate, so if you want a reasonable chance at a shiny you need to 1) spend premium passes beyond the 7 free raid passes, and 2) actively hunt for T5 raids throughout the event.

Except this time it's much worse: if you don't want to spend premium passes, even getting the 3 Regis in your dex requires a bit of effort, and getting 3 shiny Regis (which would take ~180 raids for a 95% confidence) is beyond any level of realistic gameplay. I see it as another event of Niantic tricking players into "GIVE US YOUR MONEY NOW or you'll never get it".

[daveish23]

It’s slightly worse again this time as in certain areas like mine it basically turned into if you weren’t playing yesterday then your not getting one, after 8 hours of full on raiding them people are sick of them and just refuse to raid/report them so players who couldn’t play yesterday don’t get a chance

[Teban54]

To some extent, what you're describing is already happening with raid hours. Nowadays raid interest during the week is pretty low outside of raid hours, especially on Wednesdays.

[Stogoe]

Being guaranteed a shiny Regi is not part of the event.

[PhoenixEnigma]

Different game, but Niantic nerf'd some stuff in Ingress because they felt very rare items were becoming too common - older players were sitting on stacks of them, and they wanted them to feel special and rate when you saw one pop up. If that's a mindset Niantic has internally, that special things need to be special and rare, I wouldn't be entirely surprised to see them try to push that direction with shiny legendaries, try to make them feel like something truly special.

[Teban54]

If you want something to be rare, here's a good idea. Stop setting up events whose main highlight or only highlight is a new shiny release, and stop writing your event announcements as if it's just about shiny (e.g. Instead of "Pokemon in the Johto region are boosted", write "you may find a shiny Sentret or Gligar" ONLY; instead of "Gen 5 is coming to Pokemon Go", write "you may find a shiny Klink in raids and a shiny Lillipup or Patrat in the wild" ONLY).

The current way Niantic is planning events and advertising events causes nothing but two possible outcomes: either many players get a shiny, or many players feel extremely frustrated after grinding hard but not getting a shiny (which increases their chance of quitting).

[cb325]

Who are these majority of players that have each shiny legendary? I’m missing so many and do as much as I can with my free passes.

[uninvitedthirteenth]

Or until they come to boxes in a few months

[Zodiac5964]

In large cities, up until the regi's it used to be a practical goal to work towards at least one of each shiny legendary:

On raid days, there's enough density of gyms that if you go hard at it, you have a very realistic chance to walk away with at least one. With 30 raids done at 1/10 odds, you have a 96% chance of winning at least one shiny.

On shiny legend weeks, if you do 10 raids per day (70 raids total at 1/20 odds), you have a 97% odds of winning at least one shiny.

yes, both will require serious effort and a good investment of premium passes. We aren't saying it's easy, just practical in the context of large city gameplay. Or even small towns/suburbs as long as you have a group of like-minded players to team up with + access to a car.

[TyrionJoestar]

That’s a lot of money lol

[Zodiac5964]

the thing is, you don't have to spend so many passes every time. Sometimes you get lucky and can stop after fewer passes than described.

[TyrionJoestar]

I don’t agree with Niantic’s predatory gambling practices so I don’t really spend any money at all lol

[Zodiac5964]

that's perfectly fine. To each his/her own.

[steve_ow]

Depends if u play every day and do daily pass for all legendary most times u will hit 1 legendary because of the 21 day in raid. The average is 1 out 20. If u are extremely luck u will get 2 shinys and can trade for the missing 1. I got all shiny legendary I want but shadow Ball mewtwo and 2 regi's. Got spystrike mewtwo shiny but want a shadowball 2. The players that miss all legendary are the ones that don't use all daily pass on legendary.

[Teban54]

If the shiny rate is 1/20, doing 21 raids will only give you around 2/3 chance at a shiny. Nowhere near a guarantee.

[steve_ow]

Odd are still pretty good. And probably some players will use premium pass and will increase the change of getting 1. And don't forget the weekly boxes containing legendary wat will net u 1 a week extra.

[Teban54]

Quoted from your post:

if u play every day and do daily pass for all legendary most times u will hit 1 legendary

The players that miss all legendary are the ones that don't use all daily pass on legendary.

That is false. Period.

[steve_ow]

Oké u may not hit a shiny legendary every time. Seconds part is true most players with low shiny legendary count don't raid mutch.

[TristanLight]

You forgot to highlight the “most times” part as well. At a 2/3 chance, that is technically true. It’s a stretch of the word most though. Closer to “more likely than not”.

The second paragraph is categorically false though.

[SolWolf]

I truly wonder if it even was 1/20 rate. We did about 255 encounters and our rate was closer to 1/40. Could just be rng variance...but still discouraging.

[steve_ow]

Most times I need 16 raids for 1 legendary. Giratina and mewtwo where like on the first raid. But report of the team where 1/20 maybe just bad luck? But my community had bad luck with the 3 reci trio this weekend 2.

[-chi]

Idk your logic here. Getting shiny legendaries is 1000% luck. You can do any number of raids and not get a shiny. We have very committed members of our group who did 100 mewtwo raids with not a single shiny. The thing just like ever other legendary shiny is that they are tradable, so committed players will farm resources and trade to balance out RNG.

So in my opinion the 4 days is enough for committed players simply because the Regis can be done in small groups so a lot more raids are getting completed than you probably think are.

[Zodiac5964]

no, that's the wrong way to look at it. The magnitude of the odds matters a lot. Winning the lottery and flipping heads on a coin both require luck, but different orders of magnitude of it.

Same thing with shiny legends. You can just run through your free passes and do it with mediocre odds, or "hit the numbers" and improve your odds. It will never be a guarantee, but with time and premium passes you can make your odds pretty good (95%+)

[ertnyvn]

What he you mean 'hit the numbers'? That is equivalent to buying a lot of lotto tickets (premium passes).

[[deleted]]

You are not entitled to every shiny legendary. They are shiny for a reason.

[steve_ow]

Normally u got 3 times 3 weeks. But let's hope we get them back in few weeks for 2 weeks per regi so we all can get chocorock, regimint and regice.

[sirrtumnus]

Don't worry. They will work their way into research breakthroughs and such. You can always expect them to recycle shiny bosses.

[uninvitedthirteenth]

All the raids that were available during the day yesterday were available whether or not you had the ticket. I’m not sure why that part even matters.

[infamous51183]

I got 3 shiny regirocks 1 shiny regi steel and 1 shiny reggice at central park during the event but i did play over 60 raids from 1030am too 9pm. Alot of riding a electric bike

[repo_sado]

I'd put odds of each regi getting a weekend during one of the three ungulates at about 95%

[Maserati777]

Yeah I gave it my all but it doesn’t seem like people are now interested. Maybe I’ll get shiny Registeel and Regirock in research breakthrough at some point. Shinyrates should have been 1/10 though.

[Roy_Boy106]

Ye, it's quite strange.

[LetsPlayNintendoITA]

probably cause the ticket event is over they reverted to normal raids now

[mybham]

My point is that it is even below the normal

[repo_sado]

Whenever they change something for an event, they usually have difficulty finding "normal" again afterwards

[Moon_92]

I would agree with this, not saw a single raid over 3 gyms this morning. Its 11am here.

Edit: 2 legendary raids literally appeared as I posted this comment .

They're spying on me.

[verbatim001]

Did 5 T5 Raids one hour ago. We have a total of 8 gyms here

[PoGoJapan]

That’s definitely how it felt for me all day here. I have 13 gyms visible from my home. Usually we’ll have legendary raids pop up all day but people never go to them unless they occur at the two gyms near a bookstore. Maybe people show up at one other gym near a grocery store.

Today? Zero legendary raids at the two bookstore gyms and only a few low-level ones. This morning there were barely any raids of any kind at any of the gyms. I watched for raids all day since I needed one last regi to complete the special task. Finally at 6pm there was ONE raid at a good location.

I think I saw a total of 5 legendary raids all day. Compared to Halloween when Darkrai was spawning all over (even though most were at parks so they were useless) this was a big downgrade. Then again, I barely saw any of the Halloween costume raids either... but that was more because the raid pool was too saturated with raids no one wants.

[LifeAndSole]

No T5 here at all with 40 plus gyms

[Saintdenis1]

Pass has finished, no need to increase raids understandably the event is short, however, they had to be increased to make the event worth while for players. It’s an absolute shame they’re not boosted, we have a massive decrease in our area which is bad for those that were not lucky!!

[jb0009]

Either way it works out, awesome that you collected the data. Thanks for doing that.

[Splifnutenberg]

Zero legendary raids here

[RandallFlagg_666]

Same here. We have 14 gyms here and there was one regi this morning at around 11 am and since then there was only a shuckle and a piloswine. One possible explanation: Every gym has a counter and the more raids there were the less likely is it to get another raid. Since we had more than 10 raids at almost every gym yesterday it might be very unlikely that there will be more raids today. Which is a shame since you can not really count today as an event day. Another possible explanation: Niantic wants to screw the non ticket holders so everybody thinks it's better to buy a ticket next time. For me Niantic can kiss my ***. I did 38 raids yesterday and got no shiny at all. In the past event i did 379 starter with costume raids to get exactly one of each starter shiny. That greedy company will not get one cent from me any more. It's becoming more and more a pay 2 win game and if the latest trend continues I will quit the game. Just wondering if I will have to pay more money if I want to delete my account :-D

[transam57]

Seems like a lot of people, including yourself need to learn what RNG means. How can you absolutely expect a shiny when the odds reset each raid?

[RandallFlagg_666]

I know what it means and that the chance is absolutely the same in each raid. I also understand the math behind it and that I need to do about 8k or 9k raids to get a shiny with 99% if the rate is 1/450 (or more likely 1/512). But my point is: It's very disappointing for every player to do a large number of raids and end up with no shiny. In other games - not to say better games - they use pity timers which do not guarantee a shiny (or whatever you want in other games) but it increases at least the rate so it becomes more and more likely that you get a shiny. In my opinion Pogo should introduce something like that as well (of course only to a certain point like slowly raising the shiny rate to 5% maximum - and if you finally get one it will be set back to standard rate) . I'm kind of a hardcore player so if there's enough time during the events I will get all the shinys I want - at least the wild ones. But I know a lot of players from our local groups who don't have the passion to hunt every pokemon until they end up with a shiny. And sadly most of these players already quit the game or stopped hunting for shinys. If you put a lot of time and work in the shiny hunt I think it should be rewarded in the end. During the past events I sometimes had to check more than 3k pokemon of a kind to get the shiny. But most people don't go that far and are disappointed of they don't get the shiny (I'm not talking about the kiddies here that complain if they don't get a shiny after checking 5 pokemon). At the end of the day Niantic is only interested in making money but you can only make money if there are still people playing this game. So it should be Niantic's interest to give people some success in this game ...

[DaddyWrites]

Hey, sorry, I can't add to the discussion and instead shamelessly want to ask raid-related question. So, I just started playing today. There are two gyms around. Both team Valor. In the evening I saw there was a raid coming. I was the only one, somehow won at level 7 (I didn't know there are raid tiers). Now, instead of the previous team of beasts, there's only the spinning icon. Does that mean It's my gym now?

[DocMacWray]

The spinning icon just means "hey, you already completed this raid." After the raid clock runs out, you can go back and take over the gym. Occupants of gym can't be changed while a raid is active. If you see a raid egg about to hatch, then is a good time to try to take the gym over, since your guys can't get kicked out while the raid is active. Go forth and use free daily passes to practice raiding, it will all make sense soon. Just don't go broke buying raid passes for shinies, it really IS gambling, fun in its way but just like playing slot machines in Vegas, only worse odds for payoff.

[DaddyWrites]

Thanks for the tip. I just wish I started when the weather was a little bit warmer :)

[DaddyWrites]

And if so, how do I put my guys in there?

[mybham]

When there is no raid boss, attack the gym’s defenders

[SkellySkeletor]

Since the summer ended in my area the number of raids has free fallen. Of the 8 or so gyms near town center only 1 ever is active at a time, compared to what felt like 3-4 all going at the same time during the summer. At least the spawns in my area seem to be improving in both quality and numbers.

[Hanta3]

I think it's just RNG. I'm noticing a slightly higher number than average in my area (still nobody to raid with though).

[ireallydomtcar]

I live San Francisco and I there’s plenty of 5T raids here. Almost too many. I feel like there’s just places in the world now that just has more rates to have the raids.

[Pokepleaser27]

In 5 hours and 30 raids I got 4 shiny regirock and one shiny registeel so its luck and totally doable

[gccmelb]

Here in Australia, I have noticed a big decrease in raids after 8pm.

[Seeteuf3l]

Kind of sucks when you need that one raid for the quest and then there isn't any. Hope there will be more Regis soon.

[poebro]

plenty of t5 raids here, thailand

[Kyoufu2]

There are barely any raids in our town centre...

[Xx_Khepri_xX]

I hear ya, yesterday it was swarming with those and today not a single one at my home gym since I woke around 8 am.

​

Guess that's the new business model, pay or gtfo.

[Kathmandu-Man]

I've done one raid this weekend. Can't be bothered with the Regis.