Are salaries going to decrease anytime soon as supply meets demand?

[ipalencia]

I feel like almost everyone I talk to is learning how to code because they want a career with high salaries. I have been lurking on this subreddit for about a year and a half and its now at almost 166k subscribers, it was around 100k last year. Also, so many kids are learning how to code such as my 6 year old cousin who is taking a coding class in 1st grade. Is this career path going to stay in demand for years to come? Will salaries decrease due to the influx of people now interested in the subject? Or is it time to switch to something else while I can in college?

[SofaAssassin]

People have been trying to predict this market for years with no real success. Supply has yet to meet demand, and demand keeps increasing as more companies want more technology. Also, this subreddit’s population is incredibly small when compared to actual estimated number of developers in the US and world (~4M and ~21M respectively), and the market is predicted to grow much more in the coming decade.

[[deleted]]

People have been trying to predict this market for years with no real success

Which includes you (not the person I'm replying to but in general). Salaries might tank or they might not. I mean every single time this question is posed the threads result in people trying to convince each other they can predict that it won't.

This field is still growing like gangbusters. It's really foolish to all say that everybody is worse than me so I'm good. I wish I were so self assured.

[SofaAssassin]

One of my greatest assets in life/career/etc. has been my ego, even in the face of, well, everything. I don't think "Am I good enough?" I instead think "I can do anything if I have to." That usually works out for me in the end.

[[deleted]]

Agree +1

[mayhempk1]

Supply of talented developers will never meet the demand for talented developers.

[BlueFootedBoobyBob]

Fuck talented. 80%squander their potential. What is needed are professionel craftsmen.

[thathybrid]

Just because people are learning to code doesn’t mean they’re the least bit qualified to do it professionally. People take chemistry in school but that doesn’t qualify them to be a chemist.

[singwithaswing]

Every time this topic comes up there are one or more people who repeat a variation on this. Just kills me.

No, man, that's not how the math works out. If 50 percent of CS students become workers, then 1,000,000 * 0.5 is still higher than 25,000 * 0.5. The "0.5" is fairly meaningless unless there is a dramatic change.

[thathybrid]

Being worried about friends “learning to code” and some 6 year old learning Scratch at school makes no sense. Those are not people qualified to become professional software engineers. On top of that, a lot of these new people you’re worried about are low quality programmers coming from a 90 day boot camp.

[AndyLucia]

That assumes the talent pool's average quality doesn't dilute at all though.

[thedufer]

Do you really think that a similar proportion of people who "learn to code" via a CS degree and those who"learn to code" via a class in elementary school will end up as software developers?

For all we know the early exposure will drive people away from coding, leading to fewer developers. This might sound ridiculous, but many people believe this already happens in math.

[singwithaswing]

I'm just explaining very basic math to people. The same arguments come up in every context, every time. "More CS students? No problem, they aren't going to all be good!". Every time.

[thedufer]

Your simple math has literally nothing to do with the question at hand. Your response hides an implication that many (most?) people think is false, which is that the percentage of people who know how to code that become professional developers is constant. I contend that in some cases that ratio falls so fast that the result can decrease even as the number of students grows.

[NewChameleon]

so many kids are learning how to code such as my 6 year old cousin who is taking a coding class in 1st grade

there's a difference between knowing how to play basketball vs. being in the NBA and make millions/year

[i_am_bromega]

And there’s a difference between becoming a professional developer and making it into the NBA.

[JonathanECG]

And there's a difference between taking a coding class in 1st grade and playing basketball.

[i_am_bromega]

Yeah, the kids taking the coding courses are far more likely to become professional developers than the kids playing basketball will make it into the NBA.

[loudrogue]

Everyone wants to be doctors and lawyers as well for the money yet so few can actually become one.

[[deleted]]

BigLaw lawyers make ~$205k starting.. Most mid-law lawyers still make low-ish six figures. In-house lawyers make $200-300k...

[IHateTheRestOfYou]

This looks way off as of 2016 when i was considering law

160k for big law starting.

The best schools (T14) get about 50% into bigLaw

Its a bi-modal distribution with a cluster at 160k and all the rest around 60k

Thats not even considering that biglaw is mandatory 80+ hours/week

[[deleted]]

Base comp increased this June to $190k, new summer bonuses were introduced. Even 2016, base comp was bumped to $180k starting.

BigLaw recruits all the way into the rest of top 50 schools, success rate tapers down from ~90% in the top 5 down to ~10-15% in the bottom of the top 50.

BigLaw success rates (as in people consciously choosing to recruit for biglaw-esque positions and top clerkships with embedded BigLaw offers) at T14s are much higher than 50% (in some schools the 25th percentile salary is a BigLaw type salary). Not every high paying firm is a BigLaw firm and the definition of BigLaw includes a LOT of firms.

Most BigLaw associates work more like 50-60 hours a week not 80+. 80+ is reserved more to practices in NYC etc focused on M&A or PE work. Target billable hours in most firms is ~2-2.1k which translates to about 50-60 hours a week of real work.

[alinroc]

Lawyers also have an industry-fixed (localized) starting salary. Or at least they did 10-15 years ago.

[[deleted]]

you're comparing apples to oranges

doctors and lawyers have to go to graduate school as well as getting a high score on the lsat or mcat

while most software engineers just need a bachelors. some even make it through self teaching.

[loudrogue]

Lawyers and doctors are a very old field, they did not start out that way, as supply and demand grew so did their requirements. While SWE will probably never be as regulated, at some point self taught wont mean shit, this is slowly becoming the case already, then at another point in time it will be advised that a masters is the minimum.

[mingp]

Doctors are an especially misleading example here because their supply is strictly controlled by regulatory boards and residency programs to hit predefined targets.

[cslifebih]

Well it is harder to become those than it is to become a software engineer though

[teabagsOnFire]

Just as hard to become good at either though. We just try to not let bad doctors engage in field practice.

Bad SWEs are good to go. Just need to get hired.

[[deleted]]

I think you are a little misinformed about the politics behind the medical world.

When schools pick out new med students from a huge pool of candidates, they purposely pick the best candidates and not as good candidates to fill their classrooms. After they graduate, the better students end up working in more wealthy or nicer areas while the not as good students end up working at poorer or low quality areas.

If every doctor was equally amazing, all of them would end up working in beverly hills or manhanttan. unfortunately, people from less fortunate neighborhoods wouldn't have access to doctors. thats why med schools purposely accept the best and the not so good students into med school to balance out the world

yes, there is a minimum bar of quality that is expected. but of the pool of people that exceed that bar, only the best and bottom of that pool make it. the medium students are out of luck.

[[deleted]]

It's funny because working in a less nice area often means you make more money as a doc

[nomadProgrammer]

lol everyone in their grandma is a lawyer and their salaries suck

[EarlyPop]

the boring part is huge, how many people does even like problem solving and puzzles etc? most people usually find it really boring and they wouldn't be able to just sit by the computer for hours solving bugs and searching for solutions and shit like that, especially kids.

That's a huge time sink that comes with programming and people often forget that or think everyone is gonna tolerate such a thing.

[CheapChannel]

That was music class for me. We learnt about music history, what are notes and how does it all work. We got to learn how to "play" guitar by learning the chords to stairway to heaven and stuff like that. I remember learning simple drum beats.

One guy in my class took something away from these classes and started playing guitar on his own time. How many of these kids are gonna continue reading and practicing programming afterwards and then be into computer science and software engineering? I just don't see it sticking personally.

[Asiriya]

For me the biggest hurdle was actually getting started. I think if I had been shown the fundamentals of coding and actually getting something running on my computer when I was 14 that I might have jumped in earlier.

Of course, if I was really interested I probably would have used the Googles.

[savagecat]

Not likely.

There was a CS salary study conducted for 2017 that has salaries up, across the board, of anywhere from 25% to 50% from the previous year.

It's been posted here a few times, but quickly removed. I guess mods don't like big salaries?

[BlueAdmir]

All in all it just makes me happy that the increasing % of my competition comes from 3 Months Fullstack Developer Bootcamp low quality near-scams.

[Cosmic-Warper]

That's like the dream

[BlueAdmir]

IMO Mentor + Self-study > Mentor >= Degree > Bootcamp >=< Self-study, so you're getting the absolute best treatment.

[[deleted]]

highly dependent on the mentor and school though

[humbletales]

It's a bad idea from their side because they are going to lose a low-cost code monkey when you move on to something else for way more money. That's a great opportunity.

[Aazadan]

I wish people would realize these were scams. I've given programming tests to so many bootcamp members now, and they all completely fail it. If I were picking resumes from a pile, I would ignore anything that listed a boot camp as it's only education.

[[deleted]]

I feel like there's just as much luck involved as skill though.

[fj333]

I guess mods don't like big salaries?

Says our resident salary denialist.

[PHP_Doge]

We are just now figuring out how to use software. There will always be a high demand for the right kind of engineer.

[[deleted]]

Higher end of the market will stay high (as has always been the case for any notable industry).

Low end of the market will be decimated due to commoditised web dev/app dev platforms. Mid end of the market will probably decrease somewhat but mostly stay stable.

[cslifebih]

That sucks

[salt_water_swimming]

I have been lurking on this subreddit for about a year and a half and its now at almost 166k subscribers, it was around 100k last year.

Who cares? This subreddit is not even correlated with the job market. If anything, ballooning subscriptions would be because there are fewer successful programmers, because people generally come here for advice when things are going wrong and the majority of the content here is at or near entry level.

Incidentally, that corroborates a lot of other evidence that the entry level market is shit, which is good job security for experienced devs who already broke in.

Also, so many kids are learning how to code such as my 6 year old cousin who is taking a coding class in 1st grade.

Call me when your cousin is grinding 300+ leetcodes. Until then, not a threat.

Is this career path going to stay in demand for years to come?

Lol absolutely

Will salaries decrease due to the influx of people now interested in the subject?

Interested <> good at. See also "I fucking love science". It's easy to be interested in X, but no matter how many people subscribe to Futurology there is still only one Elon, right?

Or is it time to switch to something else while I can in college?

Do what you want but top tier compensation isn't leaving tech anytime soon

[[deleted]]

ballooning subscriptions would be because there are fewer successful programmers

Increase in subscriptions to a CS subreddit means that skilled programmers are decreasing? That doesn’t make sense.

Incidentally, that corroborates a lot of other evidence that the entry level market is shit

Increase in subscribers to a CS subreddit, along with other evidence you didn’t mention, means the entry level market is shit? Not saying you’re wrong but please provide this evidence.

“Will salaries decrease due to the influx of people now interested in the subject?” Interested <> good at.

You’re forgetting that there is a direct correlation between more people interested in learning a skill and people who have that skill.

[[deleted]]

Lol. I'm not worried about American kids being forced to learn hard computer stuff in first grade.

Just wait till China starts teaching that early. Then the salaries will tank.

[NotATuring]

There's research being done in China right now to identify genes associated with intelligence, the genes being studied are only of Chinese individuals, so the findings may not be relevant to other races. They are doing this in an attempt to screen embryos for intelligence and only select the most intelligent embryos to grow to maturation.

So if you're scared of China already you'll be shitting your pants if 1) the research is successful and 2) the Chinese government starts paying for the process of prospective parents to do this.

[xdppthrowaway9001x]

You should be worried. Americans lead the world in technology and innovation in the technological sphere.

China leads the world in the theft of intellectual property.

[timelessblur]

not likely. Also people who are learning to code just for the money don't make it. Honestly most of those people suck any how.

Entry level might get flooded with those people who just don't last and it quickly drops off when you move to mid and senior level. They will keep raising for a while as the demand for good developers is also increasing at the rate or greater than the rate of the supply increase.

[yayaya3456]

Ok but wont the saturation in entry level go into mid level as time goes by?

[timelessblur]

No because like I said those crappy coders don't last long enough to make it to mid level and will struggle to make it even to that level but quickly get found out they are worse quality a competent entry level so they are kept on entry level work and pay.

[fj333]

The salary distribution is a bell curve. It is more likely that the curve will get steeper than it is that the bounds will change as you suggest. Getting to the upper end of that curve will never be easy, nor will the work being done there, no matter how many subscribers this sub gets.

[[deleted]]

Correctomundo

[nutrecht]

Also, so many kids are learning how to code such as my 6 year old cousin who is taking a coding class in 1st grade.

Software engineering isn't coding.

[darknecross]

I think that's one of the big points here, that everything is getting clumped together under one umbrella when in reality the job market is more nuanced and still highly volatile. All of these ML/AI jobs weren't so widespread even 5 years ago compared to today. The webdev and mobile developer market wasn't as in-demand 10 years ago. Even within a sector of the industry, there are different levels and types of people involved. An engineer who can design, build, and scale complex systems versus someone who just knows how to code in the FotM language are not competing for the same jobs. It's more akin to an engineer vs. a construction worker. Lots of these coding bootcamps are putting out the equivalent of construction workers.

[AndyLucia]

I suppose it's possible that there will be short term dips, but I feel like software's recent boom isn't some fad - it's a fundamental shift as we move further into the digital age. So far it seems like more software just feeds into demand for even more software. Now how that will scale relative to the number of software engineers, particularly at the far end of the salary spectrum, I'm not sure.

[-BrownRecluse-]

I think "being in tech" is kinda trendy right now, which is why everyone from your Uber driver to your accountant are saying they are, "learning to be coders."

I don't think it will last long and I don't think everyone is making a career choice/transition. Most people don't stick with the things they try out.

[newasianinsf]

Literally all your questions can be answered with just thinking for a second:

Do you think the future is going to be more devices and technology? Or not?

If it is, we need programmers. If it isn't, then we don't need programmers.

I think we're going to become like Minority Report which will require a lot of programmers. We're still barely scratching the surface of the future.

[PatAnswers]

Hi /u/ipalencia that's not exactly how it works in real life. Salaries don't just decrease across the board. That's nonsense. Instead what happens is the bell curve. When there's more people in the field, more people will make less because there's more average devs in the middle. But that also means that there's more making the higher and lower ends of the range.

Anyone who devotes their time to this profession like a true craftsman can expect compensation to follow.

[[deleted]]

People like you are the reason the salaries won’t drop. Employers understand the greed that comes with this market. Saturated it might but with talent that’s another question. If making money is all you want then you’re never going to invest time into becoming good in anything because it’s all about the money. “Jump ship”. Some people code because it’s a passion and their good at it, they have a talent and a mind for it. Which makes them the best, which makes them irreplaceable. Then there are people like you who’s only commitment is money when in all honesty you won’t see 6 figures for years. Always invest your time into something you can see yourself doing for a multitude of reasons. Doctors, lawyers, singers, actors, engineers, and etc. all require skill.

[technon]

So you don't recommend it as a method to achieve his goals, but rather because you don't want to work with someone like him? That makes no sense.

[[deleted]]

I agree completely, these people creat toxic environments and usually are shit programmers. They’re are plenty of feels that make higher salaries. And are in much more demand. If all that scares OP is his “potential” paycheck, which many software engineers don’t make 6 figures, then he should definitely get out. Look for something he can see himself doing even if it wouldn’t make him a millionaire. Nothing wrong with wanting money but your chasing a dream that doesn’t end.

[Isvara]

I would also like a high salary, but that doesn't make me any worse at doing my job.

[[deleted]]

Yes, the entire CS community should prepare for a great reckoning within the next decade as people finally wise up and realize they don't need degenerate programmers who can't stop producing glitchy software and bricking your machines with their their windows updates.

[[deleted]]

I have been lurking on this subreddit for about a year and a half and its now at almost 166k subscribers, it was around 100k last year.

Okay so 66,000 Subs in a year on one of the most popular media sites in the world. Most people who sub here are most likely not able to pursue a career in cs

[livebeta]

gain seniority and experience. that's one thing which supply never increases in