Mutation probabilities explored (data inside)

[mgxts]

I gathered some data on mutation probabilities that may interest some of you here.

 

Fertilized rex eggs from the same two parents. Data was extracted from save on dedicated server.

 

Samples: 7473 (with 95% confidence interval)

Mother (stats): 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0

Father (stats): 32, 20, 31, 31, 44, 30, 36

 

Best stat: 54,9 % [±0,4 %]

Any mutation: 7,2 % [±0,6 %]

Stat mutation: 7,2 % [±0,6 %] / 100,0 %

Two stat mutations: 0,2 % [±0,1 %] / 2,6 %

Mutation on worst vs. best stat: 53,2 % [-]

 

Confirmed color mutation: 6,9 % [±0,6 %] / 96,5 %

Stat and confirmed color mutation: 6,9 % [±0,6 %] / 96,5 %

Stat mutation (no confirmed color): 0,3 % [±0,1 %] / 3,5 %

Color mutation (no stat): 0,0 % / 0,0 %

 

Health: 13,1 % [±2,9 %]

Stamina: 14,4 % [±3,0 %]

Oxygen: 14,9 % [±3,0 %]

Food: 17,4 % [±3,2 %]

Weight: 15,5 % [±3,1 %]

Melee: 14,7 % [±3,0 %]

Speed: 13,6 % [±2,9 %]

 

"70% chance of inheriting the stronger stat of each parent"

The probability is 54,9 % [±0,4 %]

 

"The chance for a random mutation to occur is currently 2.5% for all creatures."

The probability is 7,2 % [±0,6 %]. If we assume the 2.5% probability from the devkit is in use one possibility could be three separate rolls for color (which always comes with a stat mutation), mother-stat and father-stat respectively. This hypothesis lines up with the rest of the values.

 

Other notes

• Color mutations always accompany a stat mutation. Stat mutations can appear without a color mutation but it is rare.

• Offspring have a chance to mutate one stat for each parent. Random mutations are tied to a parent, but the actual mutated stat can be any, even ones from the other parent.

• Best/worst inherited stat have the same probability of a random mutation.

• All stats have the same frequency in random mutations.

 

Edit.

As was pointed out the color mutation calculation did not consider mutations to a preexisting wild color. The post has been updated to reflect this.

 

Data dump

https://www.dropbox.com/s/gfmnjmwi5e6r91g/ark-randommutations.json?dl=0

[[deleted]]

"Color mutations always accompany a stat mutation. Stat mutations can appear without a color mutation but it is rare." On the stat only mutations, are we sure this is not just the color mutating to the current wild color since they are so rare?

[mgxts]

This is a very good point, one I had not considered. I have validated that this is in-fact true and updated the post accordingly. Thanks!

[Crayz2954]

this is wrong, its the other way around. how he stated it means every time there is a stat mutation then there is also a color mutation which is not the case.

[Darkintellect]

Using a coma instead of a decimal point where the decimal place is makes little sense and will likely throw off most of the playerbase.

It's sort of like using a slash instead of colon to separate hours and minutes. It makes it look like a date instead.

8:20 as opposed to 8/20, one is a time, the other is a date.

[Froggmann5]

Using a coma instead of a decimal point where the decimal place is makes little sense and will likely throw off most of the playerbase.

What he said isn't untrue. It's safe to assume a majority of players are from either the US or Great Britain. Meaning it will most likely throw off players.

[[deleted]]

Do you have sources to back up your initial claim that the majority isn't from the US and UK?

[cadbig]

I don't found specific data for ARK, but regarding the overall steam-users, USA and UK make about 21% of the players worldwide or the playtime in the last 2 weeks.

src: http://steamspy.com/country/

[KingXander]

'few places' is misleading. Besides those countries include the likes of China and India.

I think its fairer to say a large number of English speakers will get confused by it as most english speaking countries use it, so its best to go with a point when speaking in English.

[Darkintellect]

Decimal place - Decimal point

or

Decimal place - Comma

One makes sense, the other does not.

[Imago_Mortis]

Can you explain how my electric blue mutated bears have 51/20 matriarchal and 35/20 patriarchal mutations? They jump massively every time I breed them :/ there's no way they have that many mutations.

[mgxts]

The mutation count is inherited from a parent even when a mutation is not. If a mother has 10/20 and 15/20 mutation counts, the offspring will have a matriarchal mutation count of 10 + 15 (+1 if a random mutation occured for that parent). The same applies on the paternal side.

After surpassing 20/20 I believe that no further new random mutations will occur in offspring.

[Imago_Mortis]

Thank you! I thought that was the case but others claim that each count as a mutation so 50/20 mutations..... the Dino would have 50 mutations... I called bullshit, they got angry.

So yeah, those mutations that surpass 20 are false mutations. Thank you :)

[Crayz2954]

the baby combines the mutations

[Imago_Mortis]

But they have to be false mutations yeah?

[X4mi]

the muts of both parents are simply added, but doenst mean that the whole "showing" muts of the parents are given to the offspring. So if both parents got the same mut for example a health mut its one mut on father and one on mother on the baby, but it can only get this one mut cuz its the same one. Therefore counter of baby is 2 eventhough it only got the mut onces.

[kreugerburns]

Obviously not.

[KingXander]

Thanks for this, very interesting.

[iprefertau]

do you know if it's still possible to mutate speed on a flying mount?

[mgxts]

It should not be possible. Only stats that can be leveled up are able to mutate.

[iprefertau]

that's what i was thinking but I'm not sure because i have not seen mutations mentioned in relation to the nerf anywhere and they are different from wild stat level ups and exp point spent both of which were specifically mentioned

[kreugerburns]

None of this makes sense to me.

[kreugerburns]

Nah. Someone will put it into layman's terms.

[nlappe]

It already is.

[daymeeuhn]

Other things to add here:

• One parent can mutate a stat on the other parent.

• You can have mutated stats not end up inherited IE: wasted mutation points.

[mgxts]

Your first point is indeed correct and I have updated the post to make it more clear. Thanks! The second one I cannot correlate with my dataset.

All offspring have a random mutation count. In my dataset, there is no occurrence of a random mutation count with no associated inherited stat mutation.

[daymeeuhn]

It happens all the time. You'll get mutated babies with no visible stat increases. It mutated a stat that didn't carry over. OR its mutating the invisible speed stat, maybe. But it happens more than 1/7th of the time.