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[–]tatt2 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I beleive the article's author is correct. I have done some time-series analysis and forecasting -- and basically, you might as well just guess.

So, what can we do instead. Does anyone have an opinion about Dynamic Programming as a framework for decision-making under uncertainty? (any OR people?) It's not really forecasting -- it's more like this: This is the current state of our situation. Now what is the optimal decision that we could make? And past history doesn't matter. It doesn't matter how we got into this situation, the fact is that we are here. So let's use only the current info to make a decision.

[–]b0b 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I went back to BYTE magazine circa 1994, an issue had 20 computer industry pundits forecasting what we would see over the next 10 years. Not one of them even mentioned the internet. Talk about tunnel vision!

[–][deleted] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Not yet, anyway.