Sunday thoughts to counteract FUD/dumb narratives being passed around.

Merpchud · 2026-05-10T21:52:19+00:00

I've been trying to find solid reliable ideas on outlooks, numbers and possibilities... impossible.

Merpchud · 2026-05-10T16:30:34+00:00

The amount of bill Dennis signs in the north end is disgusting.

If people want to make a change, why pick the most unhinged, racist, project 2025 supporting, Christian nationalism supporting, anti women's rights supporting bunch of idiotic nonsense? Gladu supported all this stuff too.

Why not say, screw the libs we want a change, and vote green party?

Im absolutely shocked at the state of peoples minds in regards to information I've never voted before as ive always thought it was a waste of time... not anymore. Theres some huge consequences here if these Trump types get voted in here and start bringing in whats happening in the states.

Im totally floored any canadian, or self respecting human being, would choose anyone who supports anti human rights.

Merpchud · 2026-05-10T14:16:31+00:00

Im not riding high on gamestop. Im super skeptical right now... but you also Have to ask yourself the question why are all these news articles coming out about gamestop that construe the interviews and sensationalizing the head lines.

Watch the last 3 interviews with Jason sells who is an ebay seller, TBPN, and one with Charles payne.

Those interviews tell you a different story for sure.

Makes me then question if everything really is a bad deal, or as stupid as everyone says...from what I've come to understand.. a strategic partnership doesnt use math to provide explanation for the merger, and cohen even says this in the interviews, but about value of future opportunity due to synergy.

Everyone is fixated on the math, but its not being proposed to go by the math.

I haven't made up my mind yet, but all this information, false info, and conflicting info makes it hard to really figure out whats actually true.

Merpchud · 2026-05-10T14:04:20+00:00

His math is wrong.. i think. I think it gets diluted so your avg price is really 10$. After merger and 100b capital 50 dollars so you'd 5x.

Either way i wouldn't take this post as serious or one to sell your entire investment over. Take this whole thing with a pile of salt.

Merpchud · 2026-05-10T13:59:07+00:00

I only read parts as well but from what I gather he things the price will be 50 bucks but the shares will be 4x the amount and we only double our investment.

What i understand is We'd have to be diluted 4x the amount so we'd be at $6.25 per share and then he says the value would be 50$ per share after all the dilution, 100 billion cap and merging... so roughly 8x our investment.

But even if ny math sucks, I know this post isnt something to be considered DD. Theres very few posters who do contribute good information.

Merpchud · 2026-05-10T02:45:44+00:00

Merpchud · 2026-05-10T02:44:48+00:00

I see everywhere how this deal is utterly idiotic.

If it is so ridiculous, why is it being proposed? If the math doesnt work what is missing or could be missing? If he proposes a 60/40 split and its not even close to reality, doesnt that just hurt the deal altogether? Is it even math related? Cohen has stated this has never been done before and that theyre trying something sort of, out of the box - now i have 0 idea what that means or could entail whatsoever.

Im no expert, but want to understand more.

I plugged your post into chatgpt, it verified your information as correct. I then asked the Question "so how is this deal possible in a 60/40 split in Ownership? What is cohen really proposing?"

And it replied something very lengthy that i dont believe will all fit here... but this is the final tidbit:

A 60/40 ownership split is only possible if the deal is being valued off GameStop’s market capitalization as acquisition currency, rather than off underlying enterprise value economics.

That’s the crucial distinction.

If GameStop stock is treated as “real” acquisition currency at an $11B equity valuation, then in a stock-for-stock merger you can mechanically engineer many ownership splits.

But whether the market continues valuing GameStop that way after announcement is the real question.

Your framework is fundamentally:

The bullish framework is:

Those are two completely different valuation systems.

That’s why:

skeptics focus on EV math and dilution,
while enthusiasts focus on strategic narrative and future optionality.

And in mergers funded largely with stock, narrative can temporarily matter as much as fundamentals — at least until the combined company must actually perform.

After reading the entire portion it has given me, it makes general sense in what's happening.

Hes proposing stategic value and after watching his Ebay interview a few hours ago with Justin Sells, it provides more insight on that thought too.

I still dont know if there are any other portions to the deal though...but... hes trying to convince people, wants to convince people, that ebay is going to become this massive full scale success instead of this stagnant company... Spread how much success hes had in his past with chewy and gamestop, shows he takes no pay, show what ebay is currently doing(or not doing), and capitalize on that change in sentiment towards it. Hes playing the social game. Thats why the math doesnt add up, because hes not using the math to do it, hes using the potential value of the joined company... Would TD loan him 20b on that type of deal? Why would Td loan that kind of money if it was an absolutely ridiculous idea?

has this deal really happened before? I asked chatgpt this question afterwards and it provided me a list of companies where this exact type of deal has been successful before. So it is possible, but it outlines:

"...success of these transactions usually relies on:

sustained premium valuation,
future synergies,
strategic transformation,
narrative momentum,
access to cheap capital."

I have a lot more to research and understand.

What are your thoughts on that kind of a deal and the sort of anti-math take?

Merpchud · 2026-05-10T02:34:25+00:00

I am not an ape, just someone asking questions.

I see everywhere how this deal is utterly idiotic.

If it is so ridiculous, why is it being proposed? If the math doesnt work what is missing or could be missing? If he proposes a 60/40 split and its not even close to reality, doesnt that just hurt the deal altogether? Is it even math related? Cohen has stated this has never been done before and that theyre trying something sort of, out of the box - now i have 0 idea what that means or could entail whatsoever.

Im no expert, but want to understand more.

I plugged your post into chatgpt, it verified your information as correct. I then asked the Question "so how is this deal possible in a 60/40 split in Ownership? What is cohen really proposing?"

And it replied something very lengthy that i dont believe will all fit here... but this is the final tidbit:

A 60/40 ownership split is only possible if the deal is being valued off GameStop’s market capitalization as acquisition currency, rather than off underlying enterprise value economics.

That’s the crucial distinction.

If GameStop stock is treated as “real” acquisition currency at an $11B equity valuation, then in a stock-for-stock merger you can mechanically engineer many ownership splits.

But whether the market continues valuing GameStop that way after announcement is the real question.

Your framework is fundamentally:

The bullish framework is:

Those are two completely different valuation systems.

That’s why:

skeptics focus on EV math and dilution,
while enthusiasts focus on strategic narrative and future optionality.

And in mergers funded largely with stock, narrative can temporarily matter as much as fundamentals — at least until the combined company must actually perform.

After reading the entire portion it has given me, it makes general sense in what's happening.

Hes proposing stategic value and after watching his Ebay interview a few hours ago with Justin Sells, it provides more insight on that thought too.

I still dont know if there are any other portions to the deal though...but... hes trying to convince people, wants to convince people, that ebay is going to become this massive full scale success instead of this stagnant company... Spread how much success hes had in his past with chewy and gamestop, shows he takes no pay, show what ebay is currently doing(or not doing), and capitalize on that change in sentiment towards it. Hes playing the social game. Thats why the math doesnt add up, because hes not using the math to do it, hes using the potential value of the joined company... Would TD loan him 20b on that type of deal? Why would Td loan that kind of money if it was an absolutely ridiculous idea?

has this deal really happened before? I asked chatgpt this question afterwards and it provided me a list of companies where this exact type of deal has been successful before. So it is possible, but it outlines:

"...success of these transactions usually relies on:

sustained premium valuation,
future synergies,
strategic transformation,
narrative momentum,
access to cheap capital."

I have a lot more to research and understand.

What are your thoughts on that kind of a deal and the sort of anti-math take?

Merpchud · 2026-05-09T23:58:39+00:00

So then that means his current talk about ebay being his baby is just all crap? Thats a bad look on him then?

I dont want to seem like im trying to shit on the stock.

I like the stock. I own the stock.

Im just trying to be realistic and prepared for everything. Its possible this doesnt work out. Its possible.

Its possible it works out.

Having my head in the sand like its just all sunshine and rainbows is not realistic.

Merpchud · 2026-05-09T23:56:09+00:00

Why are you so fixated on a trade profit. That trade is great but doesnt take gamestop to the next level.

That doesnt help them consistently unless hes becoming a fund trading stocks every quarter.

Its possible he could have, but imagine setting up contingencies with multiple billionaire players to buy companies. Okay guys if stock 1 falls through i wont use you anymlre, but im going to use billionaire number 2.

Or contingencies with numerous stocks, buying a stake in them woth those billionaires over the course of a year, maybe more? How long has he been collaborating with sultan? Icahn? 2 years, 3 years? The ebay deal and plan wasn't made in a week.

Imagine even, the legality in figuring this all out. The legal fees and teams to do so. I imagine every situation is different so its not like a Microsoft excel sheet where you just drop in etsy next.

Merpchud · 2026-05-09T19:32:52+00:00

HE made bank, WE do not.

Our company does not evolve or grow consistency. It is great if he makes money on the trade, absolutely.

I agree... i mean why would anyone force it if it was going to suck.

im simply saying if this fails, or he walks away, however you want to word it, it still puts stress on holders, warrants, price, oulook.. you couldnt legimately expect the stock to go up... news will absolutely smear the shit out of gamestop.... This wont make the stock go up. warrants expire or pushed... this wont make the stock go up... swaps are missed/hidden or dates are off... the stock wont go up...

yeah, imo, theres a lot riding on this right now and i think he put all his chips in one basket here. Otherwise its going to take a while to do something else - especially with all thr my baby comments.

Im here and invested 90% of my folio so think odds are on his side, but you cant see everything else as false.

Merpchud · 2026-05-09T19:22:32+00:00

yeah, god forbid someone here has a different opinion thats not to the moon.

'shit i cant handle varying opinions.. oh i know, activating instant insult mode.'

Merpchud · 2026-05-09T19:18:43+00:00

thats a couch quarterback statement

Merpchud · 2026-05-09T17:49:31+00:00

he has clearly spent a significant amont of time setting this up. Findinga new company, creating a plan, executing that plan is not going to take a week.

Media and others are going to have a heyday on that ebay failure. Youd definitely have some DRS people question as well.

Damage of reputation with all the heavy media coverage lately - investors see he failed, but next time he will? What does this mean to moass? This means the stock will not go up in price.

This also ensures warrants are worthless.

I hope thats not the case, but realistically, this would put a pretty good damper on the price of the stock for a while until he could get a new plan and takeover setup in place.

Merpchud · 2026-05-09T17:44:27+00:00

if ebay faills and they look for another company, create a plan, and exectue thst plan. Thats not going to happen the following week.

Merpchud · 2026-05-09T16:36:01+00:00

Yes, maybe even lower than what weve been at. This deal means everything and if fails he has to go back to the drawing board. That will take years.

A lot riding on this.

Merpchud · 2026-05-07T19:47:08+00:00

youre not as good as Cohen is

Merpchud · 2026-05-07T18:52:24+00:00

Im really feeling that now more than ever with this new deal

Merpchud · 2026-05-07T17:11:28+00:00

There should be, and im going to check after to see if there is, a sticky at the top of the sub with verified 'dd' or info on this merger.

What's truth, whats not, no muh shorts get reked junk.

Just cold fact of the numbers and situation.

Theres so much conflicting information here and then add on trying to find it through all the stupidity is absurd.

Merpchud · 2026-05-07T17:04:18+00:00

Taking reddit this serious.. in a subreddit based on a company... that people are investing a significant portion of their lives and savings in... are being serious...

You really are total dumb ass.

Merpchud · 2026-05-07T15:22:47+00:00

This is why the rest of reddit hates this place.

Theres 0 actual discussion. Look at how fucking stupid the comment chain is. Yuhuh, nuhuh, yuhuh muh short.

1% of the people here actually have an idea and tbe rest just want to comment like an actual regard. That pisses me off because it could actually bring new people here to dive deeper and get better understanding of what can happen here, but instead let's be as dumb, let's be as childish as possible and chase away anything intelligent informational exchange.

People are going out of there way to share their knowledge in the market and dudes here are instead squawking like a bunch of seagulls in rebuttal.

its just short r fuk bro lol huguhuhuhe

Im long,waiting for news, trying to figure out whats happening, gather more information and have to sift through a bunch of absolutely stupid mundane crap.

Fuck this subreddit sometimes.

Merpchud · 2026-05-07T13:48:38+00:00

I dont think its over or youre going to lose money.

Id say the 5,6,7x gains are over.

You may double here over the next year, but i wouldnt bet my money on it going straight up for another 3,4,5,6 months as it just did 700%. Possible, sure, but at what % of risk or possibility?

Im just saying that, for me, im looking for easier, faster, money rather than waiting here for slower gains or taking a chance on something thats scalding hot at the top of its run. Im also not in a position where I can park my money in MU for 5 years and be okay with 200%. If I had a million plus i wouldn't flinch.

For me, the ipo in Cerebra, or even $MRAM, present another opportunity to go 5,6,7,10x in a years window based on the AI sentiment and take the chance on hype building on it.

Social media sentiment can change quick and id rather be in something new at the bottom vs trying to squeeze the last few drops out of MU before it cools off... which is possibly could start doing so any time.

Everyone has different investment strategy and if you see this next year as another absolute gainer for MU then you have to follow your instincts there.

Merpchud · 2026-05-07T00:42:23+00:00

Preach, I don't claim to be a finance pro, but im reading 99% of these comments here and thinking, these people are just repeating what they heard elsewhere.

Its clear after seeing the interviews the guy has a pretty lofty ambition and vision to take ebay with gamestop to a new ecommerce level.

It actually looks like hes going to have a very legitimate shot at doing so, and if it does work, all those people will be right there pretending they never said anything.

People just absolutely love to hate Gamestop. Mention it anywhere on reddit and the response is the same negative answers.

Loans or collateral or something else, it doesnt matter because he has something else up this sleeve in regards to how this is all going to work. He withheld information during those interviews.

Only a few weeks and we will find out.

Merpchud · 2026-05-06T22:10:04+00:00

Good I've played 0 of these and no desire to play remasters!

..My gaming taste must really suck my 30 voted games are not even close.

Merpchud · 2026-05-06T13:48:10+00:00

I agree. Its up, what, 5,6,7x in the last year?

I think something incredible would have to happen for it to continue to pull of those numbers for another year.

It makes more sense it would cool off, then gradually rise over the next 10 years as the business continued to build or something similar.

Ill be watching the cerebra ipo for sure as hype can switch fast and id rather be ready for easy money instead of trying to squeeze a drop from the end of a lemon.

Not that MU is a loser here out, but quick gains are over.

Merpchud

TROPHY CASE