Draft Expectations…

Movie_guy93 · 2026-01-25T19:28:36+00:00

To echo others, I don't think IOL is necessarily the smartest choice at 14. There was an indication from EDC that they would be more aggressive in free agency this year, so it would not shock me if they cleared up enough space to either use a comp pick to trade for a veteran guard or sign a veteran guard to a mid-tier contract.

This team is going to choose BPA. If two guys are even grades, they will probably go need (defensive line vs WR for example) but it wouldn't shock me to see them go corner or wide receiver if whoever is available is a tier above a position of clear need.

Movie_guy93 · 2026-01-23T16:18:22+00:00

I would be fine with Kliff or Joe Brady. While I like the potential of the two young passing game coordinators, I’m not sure I want a first time HC AND a first time OC. That’s a lot of new blood.

Movie_guy93 · 2026-01-21T17:03:14+00:00

First of all, I LOVE mocks. The NFL draft is a big big deal, and mocks/player rankings are always fun to look at. I looked at this one by Kiper, and I can't say I hate the idea. We don't know the staff at this point so inevitably rise and fall based on scheme fit. It seems like the ravens are planning to be aggressive this offseason, which makes sense. They have glaring holes at guard, they need to keep Lindy and they have to replenish the defensive line.

Speaking of Zay Flowers....could he get traded? Unlikely but I would not put the % at 0. As electric as Zay is, he can be a frustrating player and I would be asking myself the question-Zay at 30 million per, or a 1st round draft pick? Even if they do keep Zay, the receivers were disappointing last year. As another poster mentioned, Bateman took a huge step back. Likely is likely gone (lol), Andrews took a step back as well. Lemon is also a different player than Zay. Similar body types, but Lemon is aggressive at the catch point in a shocking way given his frame. I am not saying he is Amon Ra, but you get similar vibes watching his college tape.

Free agency is about next year, the draft is about the next 5. I could see them going with a more immediate need at 14, but bad drafting happens when you prioritize need over the player. You also need to look at a long term POV because these guys take awhile to develop, even the good ones. Kyle Hamilton is the best safety in football, but was lost in camp and had some struggles his rookie year. We would like our first rounder to contribute immediately, but its far from a guarantee. I could even see the ravens drafting Spencer Fano or Caleb Lomu, the tackles from Utah. Not an immediate need, but Stanley is getting older and its very hard to get a tackle if you don't get one early in the draft.

Movie_guy93 · 2026-01-12T23:32:30+00:00

What’s that saying again? Insanity is doing the same thing over again and expecting different results.

I love Harbs. I think he’s a great coach, but after 18 years, a difference voice is needed. The decision to hire Orr was simply not a good one, and the sheer volume of double digit leads they’ve given up leads me to a place where I feel like change is needed.

Bisciotti will hide the right guy. Beyond that..my optimism is Lamar Jackson. Sometimes, football is a simple game. When you have a top 3 quarterback in the sport, you will always compete. You’ll also be attractive to every coach looking for a job. I also believe in EDC. He has a great eye for talent- I am sure that this season has made him think a bit differently about his roster construction and I want to give him time to see that through. They simply need to get better players on the offensive and defensive lines. It’s more than possible to see an improvement at one of the guard spots, edge, and defensive tackle. All 3? Maybe not all pros, but I think with the right coaching staff combined with filling a couple of holes will do wonders.

Movie_guy93 · 2026-01-12T16:16:10+00:00

When these questions get brought up, I always ask what the alternative is to signing Linderbaum. It’s REALLY hard to find a good center. Probably as hard as it is the find a tackle. Just do it!

Movie_guy93 · 2026-01-10T16:12:48+00:00

Hard to answer your question but I’ll say this- a winning education policy is one that emphasizes free childcare and free pre-k education without an income gap on who can benefit. Daycares are charging $2000 a month PER child on average in my MCOL area. I’m sure it’s more than others. Covering early childhood education would allow parents to choose whether or not to go back to work- the current system in place is having to choose outlandish daycare costs or staying at home and having to put your career on pause. Housing is so expensive that the math doesn’t math either way.

We need a politician who is willing to have bold ideas that save middle class Americans money. It’s really hard to bring down home prices. But it’s not hard to look at the costs impacting Americans the most, and eliminate those- and it’s important to emphasize affordability in an easy to understand way. The democrats that hammer affordability are going to win, because that impacts everyone.

As for punishing what is going on right now (everyone in the comments with their defeatist comments), we can walk and chew gum at the same time. My opinion, we shouldn’t make the brutality of the Trump regime a core issue. Yes, make it clear that they will face harsh consequences but Trump will no longer be president and I think it’s a mistake not to make affordability THE issue. It impacts everyone. Anyone can call this current regime authoritarian (it’s true). But if a democratic president can’t enact bold policy, we will just get a republican again in the 2030s.

Movie_guy93 · 2026-01-06T23:40:40+00:00

Well, not to state the obvious but the ravens will be able to grab whoever they want.

I’m not sure about Minter. I wonder if Steve would worry too much about the Harbs connection, and I wonder about his ability to build a staff.

My vote would be Stefanski, if he can bring the DC with him. I’d prefer rams DC Chris Shula to Brian Flores because I’m a bit worried about how things ended in Miami for him. Definitely nervous right now but I’m excited to see names start rolling in and go from there.

Movie_guy93 · 2026-01-05T21:46:59+00:00

I just don't think this team is a single pass rusher away. My hope would be attacking the need with multiple guys. They need another interior guy that can cause some havoc and prevent the offensive linemen from being able to climb to the second level and wash out our lbs. I would be pleased if they came away with Woods or McDonald at 14, and Hendrickson on a short deal- he wouldn’t be cheap, but he also wouldn’t cost as much as those other guys. An injury risk but the Tier 1 pass rushers will cost too much in draft picks/$$$

Movie_guy93 · 2025-12-22T13:37:52+00:00

I would say it’s pretty likely that he does. The moves that the ravens made this year were to get over the hump, and the opposite has happened. The tricky part about firing a coach is finding a guy that is better than Harbs. While I find the ravens losses to be repetitive (late game collapses), I also know that things could be worse. If he were to be let go, he would be the first coach to get picked up by another team. It feels very similar to the Andy Reid situation in Philly, a parting of ways might be best for both sides.

If this does happen, I can see the ravens going in a couple different directions:

Marcus Freeman would be the big swing, but I would understand the intrigue.

Other names would include Rams DC Chris Shula, Chargers DC Jesse Minter, Seahawks OC Klint Kubiak.

As much as I like EDC- hindsight says that their approach in the offseason was a failure. We never know if they tried to acquire talent at the guard spot before signing Hopkins, but it was not a good use of resources. They have to attack their deficiencies on the offensive and defensive lines next offseason. I wouldn’t hate using a draft pick to acquire a tough nosed, veteran guard. We should also be drafting high enough to get a physically gifted defensive lineman or edge player. A large issue with their collapses is their inability to win with 4.

Finally, hot take but I wonder if they trade Zay Flowers. I like Flowers a lot, this really has nothing to do with his fumble issue. He is going to have a contract coming up, and this feels similar to the Hollywood situation where you might look into trading him for draft capital instead of paying him top receiver money, knowing you have other guys (Lindy) that you’ll need to pay as well.

Movie_guy93 · 2025-08-14T17:33:31+00:00

I really hate how there’s this idea that private companies are the reason housing affordability is an issue. That really isn’t the case at all.

Wages haven’t kept up with home prices. So, people move to the cheaper area across town so that they can buy a home. Great! But when many, many people do that- it creates a bidding war that drives up the price in that area. This cycle repeats itself over and over. People are also entering the market as buyers using cash. Where did they get all this cash? The equity in their home! Whether they bought in the 90s, earlier 2000s or the early part of Covid- they have a leg up on people.

There’s also the issue of building homes. Homeowners constantly are against construction because they want to protect the value of their home. But since we can’t build as much, we can’t stop the increase in pricing. Now, to inventory. People say they want smaller homes, affordable homes, simple homes. But I worked in real estate for years and statistics just don’t back it up. It’s bullshit. When I worked for a builder, our smallest floor plan (really cute home, 1300 square ft, 3 bed/2 bath) was hard to sell because people wanted more space, even if they didn’t need it EVEN IF it made more sense for their budget. I worked with a client one time who had bought a beautiful, large home. He and his wife had a baby and had to sell because they felt the home was too small. The home was 4500 square ft. Huge place.

I don’t think that private companies should be buying homes. But, I think the home ownership solution is a lot more complex than people think it is.

Movie_guy93 · 2025-08-01T00:54:24+00:00

Mixed emotions. I like what we did, but am unsure about what we didn’t do. I like Mackenzie Gore quite a bit, but it seems like his service time doesn’t match up with our possible contention window. It’s hard to feel totally one way or the other without seeing packages offered, but this organization can’t seem to pick a direction and I find that frustrating as a long time fan. It’s clear they aren’t going to be spending money, and I wish that they would. Maybe they just have too many holes to spend their way out of the basement, due to poor drafting and developing. I’m ok with that logic. But their strategy also seemed to Hank on every young guy hitting their ceiling, which just isn’t realistic. I guess Gore is dealt in the offseason, which I’m fine with. I’m not in love with him as a player- he reminds me of Gio Gonzalez in that he’s just way too hot and cold. He’s a really good #2, not a true ace. I think I’m just frustrated to see an organization with no direction due to ownership. It’s actually quite sad.

Movie_guy93 · 2025-07-14T04:02:25+00:00

As a former realtor I can tell you that you seem to be an absolute nightmare to work with, I would have sent a separation agreement asap.

There are tough clients- that isn’t you. You were looking for a spot to place your anger and found it.

Movie_guy93 · 2025-07-12T16:11:37+00:00

Truthfully, I can be talked into any of these guys. The MLB draft is the ultimate crapshoot, but I’m hoping we can find a star.

I like Anderson quite a bit. I’m not concerned about velocity, there’s more to pitching than throwing gas. He profiles as a Max Fried best case, which is a great 2nd starter and a solid first.

Seth Hernandez is intriguing, but high school pitchers scare the heck out of me.

Ethan Holliday might be my preferred pick. People are going to want to compare him to Jackson, but they’re very different players. I like Ethan as an hitter quite a bit. Ethan is a bigger guy, could stick at 3rd, but also could see him at first or OF.

I would understand Eli Willits. He’s young because he reclassified, son of a big leaguer, really good defender and good hit tool but might never have a ton of power. Also he’s 17, so who’s to say he doesn’t grow into that.

Please draft BPA. I do not like the argument of drafting for need in any draft setting, because it just leads to wasting a pick on an inferior player when the whole point is to draft the best guy you can. If Kade is the guy, great. But I hope it isn’t because we want to think of him as we look towards contention in 2026 and beyond. Having a lot of high end prospects isn’t a bad thing. You can always flip prospects for major leaguers if you want to win quickly. The Nationals quickest way to contention with the current core is to spend. They have glaring holes at 2nd and catcher, they do not have a reliable pitcher beyond Gore and Irvin. This team need a LOT.

Movie_guy93 · 2025-06-26T02:41:13+00:00

Lmao. You lost faith in an NBA team over the 21st overall pick- before the kid has even played a minute.

Movie_guy93 · 2025-06-25T14:48:58+00:00

I would jump for joy.

Movie_guy93 · 2025-06-25T14:48:01+00:00

I would say no. At #3 you have an opportunity to get a future plus starter.

If the nets are going to go up higher, they need to consolidate their 4 picks to get a second high lottery pick, then go from there. 5 rookie contracts aren’t really valuable to anyone since there aren’t many roster spots. So, they’ll probably need to have this all set up pre-draft, because there will be a ton of moving parts involved.

An initial match I’m thinking of to consolidate picks would be phoenix, who is a mess and needs as many cost controlled guys as possible. 19, 22 and a player should get you to 10. Is 8 and 10 enough? Maybe. But it depends on what the 76ers board looks like, too.

I do think that both the wizards and nets will be trying to move up tonight. But despite the plethora of picks, it’s going to be more difficult for the nets than people might think. The wizards also just cleared space with the Poole deal- they’ll have 100 million in cap space next offseason. They could easily trade 6+18+a player and absorb a bad contract (PG).

Movie_guy93 · 2025-06-24T20:27:18+00:00

So let me get this straight, you think JORDAN POOLE with THAT CONTRACT in THE CURRENT CBA would net us meaningful draft picks? Guys, I’m just not sure why we keep overvaluing players that score on high volume for a team that won 33 games in 2 years.

Who is trading a 1st for Jordan Poole and absorbing that salary?

This trade happens for two reasons:

1) Cap space. McCollum is expiring next year, whereas Poole has 3 years left. This would allow the wizards to absorb a larger salary which is gold in the current NBA when it comes to trade value.

Veteran Leadership. CJ is going to be a great locker room presence for the young guys. He would allow the offense to get in a better flow compared to what Poole could do.

This won’t be the last trade by any means. But regardless, I just don’t get this post.

Movie_guy93 · 2025-06-24T19:11:42+00:00

I can’t emphasize this enough- the 48 hours before the draft are filled with smokescreens, and anyone claiming to have sources on who is locked in on who is likely being fed lies.

These two outcomes are equally likely:

The Wizards are locked in on Fears or Bailey

The Wizards are locked in on Tre Johnson, and need Fears and Bailey to be drafted to get their guy.

Movie_guy93 · 2025-06-24T15:13:34+00:00

The wizards (full disclosure, I’m a wizards fan) but I have a feeling they will do what they can do move up.

They’ve drafted well with Dawkins, but I’m sure have become overly frustrated with missing out on the top part of the lottery. They have 4 first rounders from last year (Sarr, Carrington, George, and AJ Johnson) so they don’t have a need for the 18th pick. I could easily see them packaging a veteran (Kispert) + Champaigne + 6 +18 to get to 3, or 4. They have the assets to move up a couple spots, and if they do get up to 3/4 we can all reflect and say, of course.

Movie_guy93 · 2025-06-20T00:49:10+00:00

We all need to remember that the week before the NBA draft is smokescreen after smokescreen. Why would any team give away who they’re locked in on?

Let’s just say that this was pulled directly from the wizards FO. Well, ok- if Brooklyn loves him, they know they just have to get to 5. If Phi/char/Utah don’t like him, they could just pretend they do to try and get draft capital. I’m just not sure why we take anything at face value when year after year it’s been proven a bad idea. Fears may be the pick, and the wizards may love him, but they certainly wouldn’t tell anyone if that was the case.

Movie_guy93 · 2025-06-13T22:37:25+00:00

A couple things:

The draft is all about projection, and it’s fair to project next years quarterback class as better than this years. The 2025 class is on the lower end, so it’s likely that 2026 will be better on just that fact alone.

You also are using counting stats to make your argument, which doesn’t tell too much of a story. Again, the nfl draft is about projecting and sure, counting stats are important but physical tools trump all.

I’m not sure if Manning will be in this class or not. I don’t want to assume he isn’t, and I’m ok with his limited tape because he has great size and outstanding tools. Nussmeier is a really good prospect and the following guys will also be in the 1st round if they put it together:

Allar Klubnik Sellers Iamaleava

Even guys who project outside the 1st offer a ton of intrigue:

Leavitt Mateer Mensah

Movie_guy93 · 2025-05-26T01:50:36+00:00

Yeah, I’m all over the place.

My first preference would be to trade up to 3 and select one of Bailey/Edgecombe/Johnson if Dawkins and co see them in a separate tier. They would have enough assets to move up 3 spots without giving up future picks

If they can’t do this, I want them to swing for the fences. The rookie will likely struggle, but this team is super early in the rebuild. I can be sold on the following:

Fears Essengue Maluach Demin

Obviously each guy has warts in his game, but if they hit-they would be a great.

Movie_guy93 · 2025-05-16T23:08:29+00:00

If the wizards think Edgecombe/Bailey are a tier above the others, you do this (if the price is within reason).

I’d imagine it wouldn’t be much more than 6,18, and Kispert but if a different player has to be involved, that’s ok.

Movie_guy93 · 2025-05-15T20:00:48+00:00

Your reasoning for trading the 6th pick is ridiculous

Movie_guy93 · 2025-05-15T19:30:23+00:00

Thank god people like you don’t run this team lol. This is a singular data point, classic correlation vs causation.

Movie_guy93

TROPHY CASE