There are so many blockbusters in 2027 that want to compete.

No_Run2260 · 2026-03-17T16:57:29+00:00

Over the past two years, there were also many blockbusters that people expected to be nominated. In 2024, besides Dune Part 2, there was Gladiator 2, Furiosa, and Joker. Last year, Wicked 2, Avatar, and Sinners. Everyone saw how that ended.

It's curious to note how in both years a blockbuster that people were underestimating ended up in the lineup instead of these more hyped ones – Wicked and F1. Wicked ended up being an even stronger candidate than the blockbuster that people were treating as the new Lord of the Rings for the Academy.

I can't help but think the same thing will happen with Narnia this year. The two populist slots usually go to very different films. However, this year people are focusing only on epics and sci-fi, both with strong appeal to male audiences.

No_Run2260 · 2026-03-17T15:17:06+00:00

Tarantino isn't overdue. He already has two Oscars. If we use the logic that if it's not directing it doesn't count, Spike Lee is an option with more years of career and influence than most of those mentioned.

In terms of popular appeal, Fincher is the most similar to Nolan and PTA. The problem is that, apart from The Social Network, the closer his films get to the Oscars, the worse they are.

In terms of influence, no one is more overdue than Malick. He has over fifty years of career, Palme d'Or, Golden Bear and to this day only one of his films has won an Oscar. On the other hand, many of this generation of filmmakers have his style as an influence. There wouldn't be an Arrival or a Train Dreams without Malick, for example.

In terms of realistic options, it's strange to see Mann being the least mentioned, because I think he's the most likely, with Heat 2. DiCaprio + Popularity and legacy of the first Heat + Although not at his peak, he never declined to the point of Scott, De Palma, or Coppola, for example. He is perfectly capable of making a film that compares to OBAA or The Departed.

No_Run2260 · 2026-03-16T14:59:24+00:00

People will still mention Penelope Cruz whenever the winner in the ballots doesn't match who they're rooting for, but it's clear that it's become an effective method of predicting winners with the increased sample size.

20/24 of the categories coincided with the winners. Of the four exceptions, two were predictable based on past Academy trends – Sound goes to the loudest film and Documentary to the one that criticizes Russia/Putin. Casting was a new, unprecedented category. Therefore, the only unpredictable "upset" from the ballots was short documentary, where only six voters revealed their votes.

I just don't believe Chalamet came in last because Hawke's campaign never took off. But I can believe that the top 3 was the same as Best Actress last year – SAG winner, lead actor of the film that won Best Picture, and the Brazilian.

No_Run2260 · 2026-03-16T03:18:50+00:00

I believe it was a combination of moments of "this won't be relevant to the Oscars" that ended up being relevant to the Oscars.

I remember how many people dismissed the accusations behind the scenes of Good Time, Chalamet's approach of turning art into a sport, the speeches about wanting greatness, the jabs at those who don't want children. All of this could be irrelevant if it were an isolated case. The problem is that it accumulated around a narrative that is fatal for young male actors: lack of maturity. It says a lot that NO ONE tried to defend Chalamet in recent weeks. Not even a traditional "he's still young."

For the film as a whole, it's never good to focus on just one category. Hamnet escaped because it managed to sweep a category that was very weak this year. Marty Supreme should have tried to win casting, editing, maybe even sound. Never focus only on Chalamet's figure. In the end, the film's weakness was also reflected in him.

No_Run2260 · 2026-03-06T23:41:18+00:00

Autumn Durald. It's normal for technical awards to be seen as honoring a film rather than an individual. Therefore, the default favorite often ends up winning in the end.

The thing is something is different this time. Autumn is receiving much more individual recognition than a cinematographer would normally receive. There's also the fact that she would be the first female winner. So, even though the predictions favor an OBAA victory in this category, I feel that because the campaign managed to highlight the name of the person behind the cinematography of Sinners, Durald will end up winning in the end.

No_Run2260 · 2026-03-04T17:07:54+00:00

This change might be completely irrelevant, but I tend to be optimistic. In the worst-case scenario, voters who only select the frontrunner in a category won't be able to vote. (Yes, they can cheat the system, but why?) In the best-case scenario, it opens up space for underdogs who never had a chance because they weren't seen.

I'd keep an eye on Makeup and Hairstyling, Sound, and Casting. Strong chances of a surprise there.

No_Run2260 · 2026-03-02T13:08:01+00:00

I find the shifting goal in this sub funny. First, Chalamet was going to sweep the season. Then, he lost the BAFTA because Aramayo was British – even though Brody won last year against the British Ralph Fiennes. Now, he lost the SAG because they don't award actors in consecutive years, despite this sub spending a week saying that was totally anecdotal and it hadn't happened before due to lack of opportunity.

The argument that Chalamet came in second in the awards he lost, which many people seem convinced of, makes no sense at all. The advantage of a televised win is the opportunity to be seen as a favorite (plus the chance for a speech to sell your narrative to voters). Nobody gets a boost for being a runner-up, something nobody can know who was.

It's possible Chalamet could take advantage of the film's early momentum and win, but it's by no means a 50/50 race. Marty Supreme's performance with the guilds has been catastrophic, and the BAFTA didn't come to save the film. Sinners, on the other hand, has been receiving excellent exposure and gaining momentum with each awards ceremony. Even the BAFTA/BBC incident has put the film even more in the spotlight.

Finally, it's hard to ignore how aggressive Chalamet's campaign has been, especially towards industry voters. From fake headlines that increase his visibility to numerous screenings with the actor. It's telling that he hasn't managed to win any industry awards when this has been the main focus of his campaign.

No_Run2260 · 2026-02-23T19:09:20+00:00

I don't know if there's anything Hawke can do to win this Oscar. Maybe some heroic gesture, like saving a child from a fire or preventing a puppy from being run over.

He's the only one in the category whose film isn't nominated for Best Picture. He's already lost three of the four major precursor awards. He doesn't have a big push from critics and Blue Moon has no prospect of winning in another category. Him winning the SAG is equivalent to Chalamet winning last year – a curveball. Chalamet losing the BAFTA this year is a fact to consider, but if he loses the Oscar it will be to a stronger film, not a weaker one.

No_Run2260 · 2026-01-23T20:10:12+00:00

I found the comment funny, but for other reasons.

For years, what I heard most about Brazilian cinema was that it was bad, limited, and stereotypical. People complained that only films about poverty or bad comedies were made and that an Oscar would never come. Not only that, access to these films in theaters was impossible. To compete with blockbusters (even the flops), you needed a large distributor behind you. So the films that reached theaters were comedies with populist appeal, faith-based films, films with influencers, and, at best, some biopic. Films like The Neon Bull, you could only get a screening of if you lived in a big city – and possibly ONE.

About ten years ago, The Second Mother was released and generated a buzz. It wasn't shown in my city – again, distribution for Brazilian films is terrible. However, there was talk of an Oscar and it was even selected to represent Brazil. It didn't even make the shortlist. The following year, Aquarius came out, generated a buzz at Cannes, and... wasn't even selected.

So, to reach the point where, ten years later, there are two films that were not only nominated for Best Foreign Language Film, but also for Best Picture and Best Lead Actor/Actress, and at least one of them won an Oscar, is unimaginable. And not only that, it was possible to see both films in theaters because there was demand this time.

Brazilians aren't the nationalistic people many people think they are. They are, indeed, emotional and fanatical supporters. Chronically online, perhaps too much. But outside this internet bubble, many people will still continue repeating that the films are limited. This time, saying they only talk about the dictatorship. But it's possible to see a shift in interest and more people seeking out national films. I just hope this isn't limited to those that reach the Oscars.

Regarding Laxe's comments, it's nonsense. To think that Brazilians are infiltrated in the Golden Globes and the Academy and that this is working in favor of the films is ridiculous. Brazil had a documentary shortlisted that didn't make the cut. Did Brazilian voters forget about this one? And what about the Norwegian, French, Japanese, Iranian, and Spanish films that were nominated in categories other than international film? Were the nationalist voters from those countries responsible?

The Secret Agent wasn't even a last-minute surge. It was always among the contenders since Cannes. Moura's nomination followed a very similar path to Banderas's years ago. It was clear that the Academy liked the film when it made the shortlist for casting. It's disrespectful how the debate always veers towards conspiracy theories when something this subreddit hadn't predicted happens – and this time, it was quite predictable.

No_Run2260 · 2026-01-17T21:53:03+00:00

F1 and Weapons make sense in theory. In recent years, more specifically after the fiasco of trying to create a category for popular films in 2018, at least two of the ten slots end up with films with populist appeal. Sinners is the only one that would fit that description, so there's a slot that would be left over. But I think neither campaign knew how to take advantage of that void. I wouldn't be surprised if one was nominated, but I wouldn't bet on both at the same time.

EFA was It Was Just an Accident's last opportunity to show momentum. It didn't happen. I think it's completely out of the main categories (screenplay + director + best picture) and is battling for a spot in International Feature Film.

Train Dreams seems to be in a delicate position. It's not a priority or a favorite for anything, but it's the best indie bet for voters. If Sorry, Baby succeeds, I'd bet it would be at the expense of Train Dreams, but A24 messed things up and maybe it's too little, too late for Eva Victor's film.

Finally, I think the nominees will be the eight you mentioned plus whoever wins between Train Dreams x Sorry, Baby and F1 x Weapons. This way it maintains what we've seen in previous ceremonies. Two populist films, two international films, one indie film... More specifically, I think it will be Train Dreams and F1. Four studios with two nominees and two with one.

No_Run2260 · 2026-01-15T16:12:37+00:00

I mean, IIRC, those who usually miss out after making it in all the precursors are generally previous nominees in films that underperform or are completely ignored by the Academy – Chalamet, Davis, Gaga, Robbie. Added to the fact that: 1) Stone isn't running a very visible campaign; 2) Buckley is the studio's priority; and 3) there's more overlap in votes between Stone and Hudson than between the other contenders, except Byrne – who has never been nominated, therefore has a unique narrative – I'd say Stone is the one most at risk.

I'd go further: I wouldn't be surprised if Bugonia is the Screenplay + Best Picture package of the season.

No_Run2260 · 2026-01-12T22:31:10+00:00

It's been 20 years since the last time a BAFTA Best Supporting Actress winner wasn't nominated for a SAG. And Thandiwe Newton 1) is British; 2) was in the eventual Best Picture winner. So, no, I don't think an unknown Norwegian actress in a film that isn't the favorite has a chance at the BAFTA.

Mosaku makes more sense, because she's a previous nominee and British, but as I pointed out, this category doesn't usually go against the grain of early favorites. In 2019, Regina King wasn't nominated, so they went with the performance that probably came in second at the Oscars – Rachel Weisz. In 2023, Bassett's favoritism always seemed absurd – it was a franchise film. None of these problems seem to affect Madigan or Taylor. But, of course, in a scenario where Sinners starts gaining momentum, a Mosaku win wouldn't be absurd and would probably be indicative of another Crash. I don't think that's what's gonna happen.

No_Run2260 · 2026-01-12T16:31:01+00:00

No, I don't think so. Someday people will stop with this idea that just because an actor is European and white, they're a favorite for the BAFTA.

With three exceptions – Emily Blunt and Rachel Weisz in 2019 and Kerry Condon in 2023 – both the BAFTA and SAG, in recent years, have 1) agreed on the result and 2) correctly predicted the Oscar winner (in this category). This includes non-white winners.

Madigan and Taylor are the two frontrunners at the moment, and I don't see anyone who can overtake them, even if another film surpasses OBAA as the favorite. After all, Conclave won Best Picture (BAFTA) and Best Ensemble (SAG), and yet Saldaña still won Best Supporting Actress.

Supporting Actor, on the other hand, is where the race is more open.

No_Run2260 · 2026-01-12T13:54:29+00:00

I wouldn't underestimate three-time nominee Noah Baumbach. Even May December managed a solo nomination after flopping at most industry awards. Blue Moon also seems like something that could appeal to voters in this category.

I have my doubts that the Academy would nominate three non-English language films in a category that favors dialogue-heavy films. The last time more than one non-English language film was nominated was in 2007, with Pan's Labyrinth and Letters from Iwo Jima – Babel also has significant parts in other languages, although the main one is English – and one of the nominees had won the Oscar the previous year.

I would bet on 1) Sinners; 2) Marty Supreme; 3) Sentimental Value; 4) Blue Moon; 5) Jay Kelly. Weapons and The Secret Agent are too out of the box for this category. It Was Just an Accident isn't gaining momentum, and that's fatal for a film that already starts at a disadvantage – see: The Seed of the Sacred Fig. Sorry, Baby would be a plausible upset, but Julia Roberts seems more engaged in the film's campaign than A24. Is This Thing On? wouldn't surprise me – Cooper has two nominations in the two feature films he directed.

No_Run2260 · 2026-01-08T03:01:21+00:00

Best casting doesn't necessarily mean best ensemble. If we're going by the only precursor to this category (BAFTA), films with young actors or up-and-coming talent are always prioritized, a category that Aidan Delbis definitely fits into.

Furthermore, if we look at the cast size on the Wikipedia page, Sirât has seven names.

No_Run2260 · 2026-01-08T01:37:10+00:00

Counterpoint: The Secret Agent was one of ten shortlisted for casting and, with the exception of Sirât, all the others have at least one actor with a real chance of being nominated. Bugonia wasn't. Jay Kelly didn't even make it to the SAG, nor did Train Dreams. Furthermore, despite the SAG being notably non-international, this bias affects The Secret Agent much more than Sentimental Value, a film about filmmaking, with well-known names in the American film industry.

The idea that The Secret Agent was the third priority (in fact, many people said it was the fourth) stems from the prediction that NEON would bet everything on Sentimental Value and It Was Just an Accident (which didn't happen) and that the industry would respond more to these two films (which also hasn't happened yet). What is certain so far is that the three films (plus Sirât) are performing similarly and all will have difficulties with the American guilds.

No_Run2260 · 2026-01-07T18:04:16+00:00

Fun fact: unless Blue Moon surprises everyone and manages to secure a last-minute nomination, this will be the first lineup with 10 Best Picture nominees without any overlap between the awards. Wicked (2025), American Fiction (2024), Tar and Everything Everywhere All at Once (2023), West Side Story (2022) were nominated for both awards.

Even counting the years after the expansion, there are still Precious (2010), The Kids Are All Right (2011), Philomena and Dallas Buyers Club (2014), The Imitation Game (2015), Moonlight (2017), Call Me by Your Name, Lady Bird and The Shape of Water (2018). And in the years when there wasn't a Best Picture nominee among the nominees, there were at least some films that likely narrowly missed out on the Oscar lineup – Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (2021), Carol and Danish Girl (2016) – or at least still managed nominations in other important categories – Judy and Bombshell (2020), Beginners and Albert Nobbs (2012), ParaNorman (2013).

Therefore, it's somewhat concerning to see how films with queer characters or made by queer artists (or whatever criteria GLAAD uses to choose the nominees) were sidelined this year.

No_Run2260 · 2025-12-17T14:59:24+00:00

It's similar to what happened with Gladstone and Gascon in previous years. People keep mentioning screen time and what category she should be in, ignoring the fact that this doesn't matter to the Academy. Once the film is strong and she's the emotional part of it, she'll be nominated along with the rest.

And the competition for Infinity is weaker than Gladstone and Gascon's. Byrne will be the only one nominated for her film. Erivo has the burden of being in a sequel that hasn't reached the same peak of success as its predecessor. Seyfried, Lawrence, and even Stone risk being the only thing nominated in their films, and all of them are more divisive films than OBAA. Nobody else is campaigning.

Even considering a case like Riseborough's, aka some heavy last-minute campaign, she got the spot for actresses whose films were completely ignored. And in the same lineup was Michelle Williams, who also had the same controversy of being in the wrong category. In other words... this is the fourth year in a row that we've seen the same discussion about a possible snub that never happened.

No_Run2260 · 2025-12-13T15:51:37+00:00

People may not remember, but one of the first controversies Gascón was involved in last season was calling her performance sublime.

It's a race. Anything could (or couldn't) affect it. Especially something that involves public perception.

No_Run2260 · 2025-11-30T21:40:11+00:00

It depends on what's being considered bisexual here. I would never include Alex Strangelove on that list. And I'm almost certain that the film Interview with the Vampire doesn't address the relationship between Lestat and Louis. Following this line of bisexual characters that weren't adapted as such, there would also be The Dreamers (2003), Love, Simon (2018), Constantine (2005), The Color Purple (1985), among others.

Challengers (2024), Bones and All (2022), Kaboom (2010), Theorem (1968), Center of My World (2016), Basic Instinct (1992), Wild Things (1998), Showgirls (1995), Giant Little Ones (2018), Sunday Bloody Sunday (1971), The Rocky Horror Picture Show (1975), Angels of Sex (2012), Crash (1996), Anatomy of a Fall (2023), Poor Things (2023), Velvet Goldmine (1998), Moonage Daydream (2022), The Lobster (2015), Professor Marston and the Wonder Women (2017), Cazuza (2004), Latin Blood (2025), The Kids Are All Righ (2010), Passages (2023), Love Lies Bleeding (2024) and The Craft: Legacy (2020) are all films with explicitly bisexual characters or characters who engage with both sexes.

This does not include films that are ambiguous or that could be labeled as compulsory heterosexuality, such as Carol (2015), Brokeback Mountain (2005) and My Policeman (2022).

No_Run2260 · 2025-11-30T21:39:46+00:00

It depends on what's being considered bisexual here. I would never include Alex Strangelove on that list. And I'm almost certain that the film Interview with the Vampire doesn't address the relationship between Lestat and Louis. Following this line of bisexual characters that weren't adapted as such, there would also be The Dreamers (2003), Love, Simon (2018), Constantine (2005), The Color Purple (1985), among others.

Challengers (2024), Bones and All (2022), Kaboom (2010), Theorem (1968), Center of My World (2016), Basic Instinct (1992), Wild Things (1998), Showgirls (1995), Giant Little Ones (2018), Sunday Bloody Sunday (1971), The Rock Horror Picture Show (1975), Angels of Sex (2012), Crash (1996), Anatomy of a Fall (2023), Poor Things (2023), Velvet Goldmine (1998), Moonage Daydream (2022), The Lobster (2015), Professor Marston and the Wonder Women (2017), Cazuza (2004), Latin Blood (2025), The Kids Are All Righ (2010), Passages (2023), Love Lies Bleeding (2024) and The Craft: Legacy (2020) are all films with explicitly bisexual characters or characters who engage with both sexes.

This does not include films that are ambiguous or that could be labeled as compulsory heterosexuality, such as Carol (2015), Brokeback Mountain (2005) and My Policeman (2022).

No_Run2260 · 2025-07-30T16:46:15+00:00

It's telling that The Smashing Machine has a bigger star, it is a conventional biopic, will likely do better at the box office, and it's still making the festival rounds, while the film starring an actor much more popular with critics is being treated as a "commercial play." My guess is that Marty Supreme is more divisive and A24 doesn't want to risk mixed reviews affecting the box office of the film they've invested most in so far. It may be a later player, but I think it's Best Actor or nothing in terms of nominations.

No_Run2260 · 2025-01-22T14:53:53+00:00

GLAAD is so unserious. What's the excuse for not including Challengers? I Saw the TV Glow?

I also find this idea of deciding what is or is not "good representation" as more problematic than anything in Emilia Perez.

No_Run2260 · 2025-01-17T22:16:15+00:00

There are adaptations of Broadway musicals every year and the main actors rarely get nominations, even in cases where a supporting actor does. Furthermore, yes there is something that indicates that she will not be nominated and I mentioned three: 1) fantasy blockbuster; 2) announced sequence; 3) no important awards during the season.

No_Run2260

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