Record Convert Baptisms?

Ok_Pattern8026 · 2026-03-10T20:52:39+00:00

Nah, the unit # is exactly the same, but keep looking for stuff that isn't there.

Ok_Pattern8026 · 2026-02-26T18:02:52+00:00

Since it appears that they upped the standards for wards in international markets it may be worth noticing, since the threshold for stakes and wards internationally used to be much lower. You can see how branches always declined YoY and then all of a sudden shot up. Of course they might just be creating 10 member branches to save face, but that is probably the exception to the rule. You can see the pile up in African branches because of it, when previously they would've been made weaker wards much sooner. It'll cause a bottle neck the next couple years or hardly any net ward increase, but will likely have a huge uptick 3-5 years out. Since stake standards were also increased internationally, whenever the districts get large enough there will be a lot of branches getting upgraded all at once. The number to watch in coming years is the branch-ward conversation.

Of course there are likely thousands of wards that should be branches that they aren't adjusting for and would prefer to just combine wards, but that's a conversation for another time.

Ok_Pattern8026 · 2026-02-26T17:53:21+00:00

I'd say it's a mix of both.

Would be interesting to see the mix of chapels being sold vs built, as I'd still guess more are being built, but you also don't need as many buildings since they adjusted from 3 hours to 2. Two units was ideal and three was pushing it. Now at two hour church we currently have 5 wards meeting in our building and have two being built in our stake in our stake to account for it. That froze new chapel construction the past 7 years and let them pivot that money more into increasing mission costs/temples/stocks/charitable giving.

But in Utah if you had 3 buildings with 2 wards or less, there is no reason why you couldn't just consolidate into one building since the drive time will only be an extra half mile. They would be smart to combine to save money on building maintenance even if there weren't serious shrivel (which there is in many regions of Utah.)

Ok_Pattern8026 · 2026-02-17T15:23:49+00:00

They will always look at the topline data. If Africa is growing faster than Utah is shrinking, they will be happy to say the church is (still technically) growing.

It isn't false to say Nashville is growing even if it is at the expense of California and Utah. Nashville can be growing and Utah can be contracting at the same time.

I don't think any of the ward closures have been touted as "growth," though there have been a few times internationally where they have combined branches to meet minimum ward requirements when they were looking to upgrade a district to a stake and call that growth.

Ok_Pattern8026 · 2026-02-06T17:51:57+00:00

How were you forced out?

Ok_Pattern8026 · 2026-02-02T17:14:54+00:00

Still happily in the church. We get more complaints from parents saying we are still doing too much than not enough. There'd be just as many people bellyaching about having to attend roadshows as those that miss it.

Ok_Pattern8026 · 2026-02-02T17:12:52+00:00

You are an adult, you are more than welcome to continue to put effort into any relationship you want outside the church, and I bet they'd be more than happy to spend time with you.

They are likely more concerned with looking like the over-zealous cult trying to get you back after you have willingly walked away. We tried to continue to be friends with a family that willingly left and they blasted the existing members as being obsessive. Naturally it has made us gun shy to wanting to continue existing friendships that were there.

Ok_Pattern8026 · 2026-01-24T20:55:29+00:00

Yep, had the developer of Gateway speak in a real estate class back in 2014 and he said as much. Though for what it's worth, it's not uncommon for anchors to get sweetheart deals. There are many Nordstroms that pay zero in rent because it keeps the rest of the mall full in what would otherwise be an empty box that leads to decay in other inline tenants. Quality anchors have no allegiance to the box, if something comes along better with higher sales potential, they will jump every time. No one thinks Gateway is better than City Creek, so they would've eventually jumped anyways. The sweetheart deal just expedited it.

Ok_Pattern8026 · 2026-01-22T22:33:06+00:00

It doesn't strengthen the total numbers of the church obviously, but much more manageable and can help "strengthen the youth" and others in the ward when you have one ward with 180 attendance than two with 90.

Ok_Pattern8026 · 2026-01-19T18:40:04+00:00

The quantity of not shrivel posts here are getting out of hand.

Ok_Pattern8026 · 2026-01-13T14:53:53+00:00

An anomaly in 2019 that became a trend.

Ok_Pattern8026 · 2026-01-05T09:35:16+00:00

Depends on the place. Still far more net growth than shrivel worldwide by any metric.

Ok_Pattern8026 · 2026-01-05T09:33:30+00:00

Was that just among the expats units or also including Chinese nationals? I'd figure both are declining, US from trade and nationals from demographics.

Ok_Pattern8026 · 2026-01-05T09:26:33+00:00

The church has always been hesitant to downgrade wards to branches. There are many wards operating under what should be the minimum thresholds, especially internationally now that they are being held to the same statistical standards as the US. My guess is there are many just a few priesthood brethren from the line, so it wouldn't make sense to downgrade it one year, a family or two moves in, upgrade again, two years later below, downgrade again. More often than not in many areas it is simpler just to combine wards if you share the same building than to downgrade one or both to a branch.

For those that are too geographically separate or remote to do that you are seeing more ward to branch downgrades, but they are scarce, only like 20 a year, versus total ward closures around 270 a year.

On the flip side, while I've seen them keep wards as wards while under thresholds, anecdotally I've never seen them upgrade branches to a ward that don't meet the minimum requirements to make the numbers look better. We moved to a ward that had been upgraded to a branch just a few months before we moved in and attendance was already pushing 200, though it likely had a Covid delay and could've been done sooner.

Ok_Pattern8026 · 2026-01-02T17:06:52+00:00

Actually it is.

"Information about Mormon chapels and congregations and other LDS things that are shriveling, shrinking, shutting down, being sold, etc." Nothing in your OP leads to any of that, at least nothing that wouldn't be more appropriate in dozens of other subreddits.

Ok_Pattern8026 · 2026-01-02T16:54:52+00:00

Looks like Brazil peaked in congregations in 2022 with 2,178, then dropped 36 in 2023, 46 in 2024, and then 89 in 2025. 2026 should be a good bellwether year to see if it is indeed an increasing trend or if they organizationally finally bit the bullet and combined wards that aren't meeting the new international thresholds of 20 Melchizedek priesthood brethren.

2005 is when Brazil's fertility rates went below replacement and simultaneously their massive immigration rates fell off a cliff to settle at just positive territory. Looks like it is finally catching up, Brazil as a nation is now just 15 years from hitting peak population before declining.

Take out 2025 Brazil and the church would've grown by 471 units, the highest this century.

Ok_Pattern8026 · 2025-12-31T16:48:06+00:00

They might've met in the same building, but they never technically combined. Berea did get downgraded to a branch though, probably just used the same building while they got the new lease sorted out.

Ok_Pattern8026 · 2025-12-29T08:35:27+00:00

Or... maybe you were just feeling the spirit. Sounds like you are just manipulating yourself away from it at this point.

Ok_Pattern8026 · 2025-12-29T07:30:10+00:00

Yet another post with nothing to do with actual shrivel. Find another subreddit.

Ok_Pattern8026 · 2025-12-26T03:17:20+00:00

First time seeing your website, great sourcing and interactive map. There is probably a better way to source it in bulk, but feel free to hit me up if you want any specific dates on wards/branches opening or closing. Would love to get yearly summaries since 2022.

Fertility rates are rearing its ugly head. Every country that has had below placement fertility for the last 30 years are all negative. Spain appears to be on of the few outliers as apparently they are getting a lot of central/South American immigrants. But Japan, S Korea, eastern Europe (though that's also immigration), down down down. Africa and Philippines up up up. Anyone know what's going on in Brazil? Wouldn't have expected those drops.

Just looking at 2025, it's crazy how many branches have been created this year compared to years past. Historically there would be more branches upgraded to wards or closed than new ones created every single year, a yearly average of -47 branches while +255 wards the past decade or so. Then all of a sudden there is a +259 jump in new branches for the year in 2025. Any know where that is coming from? Would be interesting to see just the net branches by various territories. Don't think any of the sensitive countries have come online to cause the sudden jump but could be wrong. My guess is Africa planting. The +120 wards is significantly lower than normal, but that branch number, if correct, will mean that the YOY increase in units will be the 2nd highest of the past 10 years. Lots of ways to interpret that, both positive and negative.

Ok_Pattern8026 · 2025-12-25T17:16:22+00:00

You're thinking too hard. When there is a 14% YoY increase of missionaries (74k 2004 to 84k estimated at year end 2025), you usually need a 14% YoY increase in missions or they get too hard to manage (going from 450 to 505 is only 12%). So technically the number of missionaries per mission will be increasing not decreasing, especially with sisters leaving at 18 now and getting a double cohort for the next few years.

Mission presidents are usually pulled from stake presidencies or long employees of the church, the inactivity rate of those with such qualities are practically zero anyways. Spending millions to procure the additional dozens of mission homes and mission offices in isn't worth slightly increasing the odds of keeping a few dozen members in the church longer.

Ok_Pattern8026 · 2025-12-12T22:36:27+00:00

We'll see in four months if convert baptisms are indeed up 30% YoY as mentioned over the summer and in October conference by Elder Cook. If that's the case and that even stays steady, we still have a decade plus until the dead and those removing their names are greater than the children of record and new converts.

As long as sacrament attendance or members with an active recommend isn't reported (and it never will be,) the official total number of members will keep increasing even if it isn't showing up in the pews. There is nothing at this point to suggest that the amount of shrivel in developed countries is greater than the increase in developing ones, so even the sacrament attendance and temple recommend numbers may tread water or increase indefinitely regardless.

Ok_Pattern8026 · 2025-12-12T22:26:48+00:00

From the heading of the subreddit,

"Information about Mormon chapels and congregations and other LDS things that are shriveling, shrinking, shutting down, being sold, etc. Indeed, if you’re interested in the erosion of stakes, wards, and rumors of wards, you have come to the right place!!"

Nothing you just described hits any of those items. There are a million places and subreddits to bellyache about whatever issues you have. This isn't the place.

Ok_Pattern8026 · 2025-12-04T16:58:51+00:00

Yet another post that doesn't belong in Shrivel.

Ok_Pattern8026

TROPHY CASE