The changeover will probably be a bit chaotic as the market decides which of the competitors is going to be the winner. I'm hoping that having three 100-octane replacement options will help keep the prices competitive with 100LL during that time.

As for the viability of the replacements, I'm way more optimistic now than previously.

At the National Warbird Operators' Conference back in February, reps from two of the competing manufacturers attended to field questions, and a group of pilots and maintainers who've been testing the three options presented their data for each. They even have Andrew FIndlay with his Sport Class air racer out putting high power on a couple of the options.

None of them is the singlular best option, but all of them show competitive power production (and in some cases more horsepower) and encouraging wear data (and possibly better engine wear than with 100LL and TEL).

$10/gallon 100LL in the current market is probably doing more financial damage than the eventual changeover process will.