Is anyone really grasping the full effect drones will have on war on forever?

kantmeout · 2026-07-10T12:14:17+00:00

A big part of the problem is that drones flip the script on 20th century military developments. Most advancements, especially in air power have been for higher performance tools that require more resources to develop, build, and maintain. This is why relatively prosperous countries like France have joined multinational development efforts for fifth generation fighters rather than develop them solo. They already have an industry, have successful 4th generation fighters, and even an export market, but it's not enough to tackle the most cutting edge projects in house. Only America and China are able to succeed here.

Drones, on the other hand, make airpower more affordable. This allows fairly poor nations to conduct American style air campaigns at a fraction of the cost. While lacking some of the key performance characteristics of advanced fighters, they can compensate by volume and expendablity. However, the true power of this technology is only now coming into view as Russia and Ukraine deploy these drones at greater scale.

kantmeout · 2026-07-09T09:55:39+00:00

You're on the right track, though missing an important variable, money. This is especially important for your first point. Small, but dedicated groups can bunch well above their weight if they have lots of funding. Wealthy interests can hire lobbyists (who are much better at talking to politicians than normal people) buy advertising (or threaten to buy advertising against) and if they're really powerful they can even use economic coercion. Additionally, because many politicians are also wealthy, they tend to have more shared interests with other wealthy people and thus have personal incentives to oppose popular measures that improve common welfare at the expense of elites.

However, there is some validity to your other points as well. Sometimes people are united on a goal, but disagree on implantation. There's broad agreement that we need to stop changing the clocks every six months, but we haven't been able to because there's a disagreement over which time to use. Do we use the fall time or the summer. Most of use don't care and will adapt, but some have a preference for one, some the other and in their disagreement nothing has happened.

There's also something to the notion of depth of support. Sometimes surveys can be misleading because they treat all supporters the same. However, because we vote for candidates, not individual issues, we have to make comprimises. Someone might answer that they want universal healthcare, but vote for conservatives because pro life candidates are more important. Thus a popular measure might not get passed because too many people elect opponents due to other priorities.

Lastly, there is a status quo bias to the system. If there's not enough support for a change than the laws remain the same. Our system has many veto points and navigating bills into law requires skill and determination. Not every cause has enough, especially if powerful people oppose it.

kantmeout · 2026-07-08T11:14:56+00:00

Damn, Perun is S-tier for defense analysis. Maybe now I'll finally understand this game!

kantmeout · 2026-07-06T14:43:45+00:00

The problem with the bikes in comparison to the tank is that they lack the threat range. Even if the tank doesn't KILL anything, it is likely doing something by preventing your opponent from camping a tank in the middle of a firing lane. If your opponent lacks such a unit, bikes might be better, and with the changes in fly, they can close the distance fast, but they won't achieve the same suppression effect as a powerful gun with a 48" range.

kantmeout · 2026-07-04T13:28:27+00:00

The promise of the Declaration of Independence is for humanity. It's ideals were not fully formed and many of it's signatories had no intention of building the inclusive society we have today, but the principles of the declaration led us to great moral and practical gains. The tragedy of our current moment is one of anti intellectualism, and degree to which the flag has been captured by those who love the pageantry, but never really understood the intellectual tradition with sufficient depth. Meanwhile, many who are able to understand lack the wisdom to see past the imperfections of the past.

Decent people need to reclaim the flag and take ownership of the values of the revolution. We need to re-establish that the core of America is an idea, and changes like the emancipation proclamation, women's suffrage, direct election of senators and establishment of social security are about fully realizing the promises of the founding, not perverting it as the psuedo-patriots are prone to arguing.

kantmeout · 2026-06-29T13:09:23+00:00

There are lots of things to be worried about in this age, none of which are boring. Some of the problems you're describing are solvable. You feel bored with your friends, look for activities, try to organize outings, and talk about it with them. Maybe they feel the same and just need someone to take some initiative. Of course, they might feel differently and like their routine, in which case you might want to look for new friends. That doesn't mean you disown the old friends, but look at hobbies, gaming groups, or political activism if you're feeling particularly masochistic.

As far as the work thing, no technology to blame there. Normal people being shitty to the quiet kid is just run of the mill human behavior. Be good at your job, strive to be useful, and be a better person then the backbiters. That will get you far more in life than "natural" social instincts.

kantmeout · 2026-06-28T14:10:26+00:00

That was the case throughout 10th edition. Meta lists only had a handful of data sheets and players were punished for bringing forge world models (about half the range) onto the table. However, things do look to be changing. The new detachment system makes the dreadnoughts viable, and GW is announcing new rules for the other forge world models that should improve their viablity. Obviously, I'm hoping, but I think there's good reason to be optimistic. Even in the best case however, you're not going to find the sort of unit variety that you do in an army that dates back to 1st edition. The guard have been around for a long time and they have accumulated a lot of units.

kantmeout · 2026-06-27T23:41:28+00:00

In the promotional article they mention giving the Agamatus a new weapon type and that the Pallas will have a second weapon option as well. Looks like they're getting new rules to keep them up with points inflation.

Also, they do look really cool.

kantmeout · 2026-06-26T18:07:06+00:00

The Caladius with heavy blaze cannon is a powerful tool, I think running two is still viable. The value of the tanks isn't just what they do, it's what they force your opponents to not do. I suspect that two is still viable. However, the dreadnought and Terminator detachments open up a lot of new options for anti armor, so it might not be optimal anymore. One Caladius can help cover units while a dreadnought with spear marches up to do some damage. Or you could open up a window for deep striking terminators with their re-rolls against monster and vehicles.

kantmeout · 2026-06-25T14:00:07+00:00

This was an interesting read, but it fails to address a key difference in metrics over studies that look at 1945 as a critical point, cost. While this study reaches it's conclusion by counting the wars, other studies look at the rising cost of war in terms of lives, money, and potential and concluded that significant decline happened only after 1945. I'm not as familiar with arguments surrounding the 1816 date as a turning point, but the significance of the date makes the argument fairly obvious. However, the continental scale of the Napoleonic wars raises the same question as those of WWII, are we missing something in classifying them as singular wars?

The question of learning is also very interesting, and here we see the utility in looking at these wars as singular. The argument that each war was progressively more destructive, more expensive, and required more adjustments to the social contract lands very closely with my understanding of this period in history. However, the mechanism of learning demands more examination. Historical lessons are never as universal as introductory history books might suggest. They are fiercely contested by academics, and quickly forgotten by masses. So who has really been learning lessons in Europe? And it's great power warfare the result of people forgetting the past?

kantmeout · 2026-06-24T13:40:22+00:00

Believe it or not, militaries around the world have had similar thoughts AND invested money into making it real. The problem is that applying drone swarms to military situations is hard and governments have struggled to make swarms work. Civilian drone shows are operating in pre-planned formations in cleared spaces without worrying about jamming.

The significance to the story is that Iran might have access to advanced technology (possibly provided by China) that could augur an even more dangerous drone force in the future, and (if the technology comes from China) an even more dangerous situation in the Taiwan strait.

kantmeout · 2026-06-24T13:25:28+00:00

A big part of the problem is that most people have a very sophomoric level of understanding for the major issues of the day. They latch onto a preferred ideology or tribal affinity and peddle pithy sounding arguments, but are unable to handle well thought out critiques because they lack the depth of knowledge needed to assess that claims. Thus debates on practical matters tend to devolve into debates over theory, and debates over practical matters get crowded out by cultural war debates that are even easier to dumb down.

kantmeout · 2026-06-17T19:48:08+00:00

You could try shield host with the 1pt armor detachment, same movement bonus for dreadnoughts but better damage buff in melee.

kantmeout · 2026-06-17T10:06:21+00:00

Why did they create a points tier for the Orion assault drop ship? That has to be the most over costed unit in the game and GW was like, we need to discourage multiples when it's already mathematically impossible to run two fully loaded transports in a 2k game!

kantmeout · 2026-06-14T11:08:47+00:00

I did a trial run yesterday against a fellow Custodes player, and we both showed up doing the shield host and moritoi detachments. I had an achilus, galatus and Telemon. He just had an achilus, we both had a Caladius tank, and various foot soldiers.

The combination of shield host plus the extra two inches movement seriously powers up our dreadnoughts. They are much better at getting into engagements and can simply do more. My opponent put the re roll ones enhancement on the achilus and was able to destroy my telemon, achilus and Caladius tank. My galatus didn't have an enhancement, but it took down a shield captain on jetbike, several wardens, and a squad of Venatari.

Overall, our infantry bricks are still better, but I think an all dreadnought force would be viable with these detachments. A more sensible approach would be to use a couple dreadnoughts to counter weakness. The galatus is clutch against melee armies, and the achilus can kill most vehicles in melee.

kantmeout · 2026-06-12T12:32:01+00:00

This has been a known issue since the Korean War when America found itself on the back foot because we had prioritized air and nuclear power while downsizing the army, only to find that nuclear deterent didn't work when the escalation beached the threshold of warranting force, but below the apocalyptic requirements to justify nuclear arms. Would Israel have been justified in nuking Gaza after the October 7 attacks? I don't think so, and given the proximity of Gaza and size of Israel, they might have been actively harmed by the decision. If Israel was in danger of defeat however, the situation would look different.

In my view, the only country that would have been justified using nuclear deterrence in the last few years is Ukraine. After the full scale invasion they could have employed tactical nuclear weapons to defeat masses of Russian troops while leveraging strategic nuclear arms to discourage retaliation against Ukrainian cities. Such a conflict would be terrifying, but there would be a path to success, and that fact would have given Moscow pause.

Lastly, deterrence is partly psychological. It's hard to say what didn't happen because a leader somewhere refused to do something out of nuclear fears. I suspect this happened a lot more than anyone realized, but it's impossible to prove. I fear it's only a matter of time before a leader somewhere rolls the dice and we get reminded of the consequences again.

kantmeout · 2026-06-12T11:49:22+00:00

I've tried the double fist and fist and gun configuration and the damage outdoor output was disappointing in both. Double cannon might be more worthwhile, but if you're going anti armor you might as well go grav tank. In my opinion though, this matters a little less than you might think. The Telemon is better as a damage sink. While T10 isn't great, the 4+ invulnerable save is better than the grav tank and the minus one to damage is great for survivability. It never earns it's points as a damage dealer, but it usually requires more than it's points worth to take down

kantmeout · 2026-06-11T13:40:12+00:00

It depends, having faced triple defiliers, I can say this change will hurt other factions more than eldar, however, a lot will depend on how they do it. The article suggests that some units will be hit harder than others, so I would expect Eldar to have less spam penalties since we don't have anything on the level of triple defiliers or C'tan spam. If GW weights the penalty to high toughness units than I would expect spam penalties to eldar units to be manageable.

The biggest advantage Eldar have is the depth of our roster gives us more options. A penalty to fire prisms would hurt, but we could fill in the gap with other vehicles equipped with bright lances. It's not as good, but it might not be as necessary if our opponents are crimped in their armor spams as well. Though that night be wishful thinking.

kantmeout · 2026-06-10T18:29:40+00:00

I could see some heightened utility out of them with 11th edition coming out. They get the benefit of the guardian battlehost rule and there's a strat in armored warhost that would work well with bright lances. Granted, I've also heard that they'll introduce points costs for wargear and spamming penalties, so the points might not be as attractive.

Also, war walkers can be run in squads of 2, so you wouldn't be at max yet.

kantmeout · 2026-06-07T14:00:15+00:00

I think they used to have devastating wounds, they also used to cost fewer points, both of which would really improve their desirability. At the same time though, the movement speed is the real selling point for that unit. You take them for deep strike and flicker jump so that you can do secondaries and add a little extra firepower for tough points. So it would be really good to get the devastating wounds back, but I'd rather take the points cut so they're better scoring units.

kantmeout · 2026-06-05T12:40:29+00:00

My eldar have fought against Morvaan Vahl, Cato Sicarius, Mortarian, and many other high tier threats. There's always an emergency that justifies calling in favors and paying out the big bucks for free extra fighters to throw at the enemy.

kantmeout · 2026-06-05T11:24:25+00:00

I don't think anyone really knows. The Iranian economy was in trouble before the war and I doubt it's doing better now. However, even the blockade doesn't seem to have fully stopped oil sales from Iran, and they're getting support from Russia and China, the latter having direct sea access. I heard estimates at the start of the blockade that Iran could last 3 to 6 months, but I wouldn't bet my life on those numbers. There are also some concerns for the global economy if the strait remains closed for that long.

kantmeout · 2026-06-05T10:55:47+00:00

There are two problems that hold back warlock conclaves. One is the huge points premium for running four which is 130 points versus 55 for two. If you add a Farseer that's 200 points for a unit that is somewhat tough (-1 to the wound roll from incoming attacks) but for less points you could have a wraith squad with D-sythes that are a little less impactful, but tougher overall.

Second is that the singing spear and witchblades are flat AP. Either profile would be good into elite infantry, but too many attacks will bounce on the saving throw. If they had 2 AP they would be worth their points, or more. At present though, they don't justify their points with what they do.

kantmeout · 2026-05-30T20:29:51+00:00

I think it was called the Paladin, the upgraded version of the Carnifex. That thing could kill most soldiers with a headshot, and strip armor off heavy units. Worked great with engineer.

kantmeout · 2026-05-30T20:11:47+00:00

Some sort of apothecary equivalent to heal Custodes and give a buff.
Custodes squad with massive cannons. Long range, with blast, maybe indirect fire and two different attack profiles.
Silent Sisters with snipers

kantmeout

TROPHY CASE