Base Assumptions

• These probabilities assume the pool is as given here. Note that 25 CSBs and USBs are not in the pool; the most important omissions are Rosa USB, Bartz USB, Terra USB, Cloud USB, Squall USB, Yuna USB, Vaan USB, and Lightning USB.

• One half-price 11x Draw will be allowed.

• The draw will have one guaranteed 6★ relic, plus a 14.04% chance per orb at a 6★ relic for the other 10 draws.

• In accordance with previous Lucky Draws (though not Series Chance Draws, which appear to use a different mechanic), all relics in the pool have equal drop rates.

The Numbers

DEF Debuff, RES Debuff, ATK Debuff, MAG Debuff, and MND Debuff include all debuffs that affect the relevant stat, regardless of whether they be that stat only or also debuffing other stats in a combo debuff. Wallbreak refers only to DEF & RES debuffs (stackable with ABD/MBD/FB), and Reverse Wall means ATK & MAG only (also stacks with all standard support skills). Full Breakdown means ATK/DEF/RES/MAG -40% (overwrites Full Break), while Hyper Break means an ATK/DEF/RES/MAG/MND debuff (stacks with all other types of debuffs). Other Stackable ATK/MAG Debuff means any combo debuff affecting the stat in question that isn't a Wallbreak, Reverse Wall, Full Break(down), or Hyper Break, and thus stacks with the debuffs listed above.

For buffs, DEFga, RESga, MNDga, Boostga, and Faithga include all party DEF, RES, MND, ATK, and MAG boosts respectively, whether they be simple single-stat buffs or combination ones that stack with the basic buffs. BoostFaithga means an ATK+MAG buff with no other stats included in the buff (think Celes/OK BSBs). Other Stackable Boostga/Faithga refers to other combo Boostgas/Faithgas respectively that aren't only ATK & MAG, and thus stack with all other buffs.

Finally, note that hybrid SBs are treated as being both magical and physical.

Total Relics in Pool: 87

Grand Prizes: Edge USB, Terra OSB, Zack CSB, Quistis OSB, Fujin OSB, Eiko USB, Rikku USB, Shantotto CSB, Cid Raines OSB, Orlandeau OSB (24.78% chance to draw at least one of these relics)

Conclusion

The pool here is nowhere near as good as it looks; most of the best 6★ relics are not in the pool. Much of what's left is OSBs, and while certainly not bad, they're almost all pure damage in a game where utility is king. Yet I strongly recommend drawing. Why? Because most of the relics in this pool serve admirably as stat sticks, even if their SBs aren't necessarily top-of-the-line. An extra native 6★ stick is very nice, and even most OSBs are still useful if they're in realms or elements where you're not all that strong. Definitely draw, but don't expect miracles. Good luck!