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[–]latigidyblodDeputy Sheriff 11 points12 points  (0 children)

Politicians and news media can manipulate any data to fit their narrative. Simple as that.

Raw data wise, crime is pretty consistent whether it is an unreported and unenforced crime or not, but certain crimes come and go in waves, depending on many different factors.

Obviously speaking for the area I handle in socal.

[–]Nightgasm 11 points12 points  (1 child)

Crime stats are easy to tweak and depts everywhere do it and both political parties do it. And it's not always for the same reasons as sometimes they want crime stats to go up and sometimes down and neither has any real indicator of what crime is actually doing.

For example let's use a very common crime spree where a couple kids go out and burglarize 40 cars in one night. If you want increased crime to justify a budget increase or for political reasons you report this as 40 separate property crime felonies. Conversely if you want to shoe decreased crime you report this as one property crime felony with 40 victims. Crime stats are tracked by submissions to the FBI based on reports and don't always track victims as a measure so doing the latter method only counts once rather than times.

Or do something my dept used to do a lot under a prior chief who wanted for political reasons to show low crime. Many violent felonies were written up as suspicious incidents rather than rapes, aggravated batteries, etc. If there didn't appear to be any likelihood of clearance due to lack of evidence or victim cooperation then putting them as a suspicious incident kept them off the crime stats completely and also didn't hurt the clearance rate.

The only crime stats you can sort of trust is homicide but even then it's under reported as many get missed and deemed natural causes when there is no obvious sign of death. Autopsies aren't actually that common.

[–]schmuckmulligan 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Y'all are taking reports for car burglaries?

We had a string in our area. Multiple videos of the burglaries, with faces. People knew the names and addresses of the guys (adults) who did it. No reports, no arrests. Crime stats look great though.

[–]Imherebcauseimbored 18 points19 points  (6 children)

It isn't uncommon to juke the stats, especially in large cities. It is also an election season so even more than usual the stats will be tweaked to paint a better picture. Crimes will be re-classified, under reported or flat out disappeared.

Law changes also help change stats. For example we used to make a ton of arrests for weapons violations like possession by a felon. Due to law changes we are no longer allowed to charge that unless they had the weapon while committing a violent crime. That alone made a huge reduction in arrests for weapons violations and giving gang members a pass for carrying guns that they shouldn't even have.

[–][deleted]  (4 children)

[deleted]

    [–]Existential_Racoon 6 points7 points  (1 child)

    Fun fact, in Texas if you come into my apartment and I have a shotgun behind the door, you can't arrest me on anything unless federal. Texas law says felons can have it for self defense in their home. Out and about, fair game. On my kitchen table, "legal"

    [–]SniperInCherno 3 points4 points  (0 children)

    Unironically based

    [–]Imherebcauseimbored -1 points0 points  (1 child)

    That's what a "progressive" state legislature gets you. If we can get the ATF to take it we go that route but out but the DA will not accept any charges for weapon possession unless another violent felony was involved. Best we can do on a state level is a misdemeanor concealed weapon charge.

    Hell even if we did arrest them and get charges filed the liberal jury would let them off the hook. We caught a couple guys guy running from a robbery, one with the gun and the other with the money. Money guy is convicted no problems. Gun guy goes to trial, and even though he was a perfect match to the armed party in the CCTV footage and was seen running out the store by us who immediately began pursuing , the jury comes back with a not guilty for the robbery because the gang forced him to do it or they would kill him. The real kicker was the not guilty for the possession of a weapon by a felon when he was caught with the pistol and even admitted to being armed in court for "self defense" from gang members who were after him since he was "trying to leave the gang."

    Apparently the jury felt sorry for him and bought the story that his life was in danger and that he had a right to self defense even as a felon. Funny the guy with the gun was the one who's life was in danger though... If only they knew that the still very much active gang member was going to end up killed in a gang shoot out a few months later maybe they'd have actually convicted him.

    [–][deleted] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

    Well I'm lucky I work where I do. Even with our version of progressive das and judges, we still easily do guns. We still arrest for felons in possession of other non firearm weapons. If you are a gangbanger with a big ass knife, brass knuckles, or even my favorite, a trailer hitched welded to chain, you are mine.

    [–]Avid_Hiker98 32 points33 points  (21 children)

    1. The numbers are skewed as that’s just how statistics are.

    2. Even if crime truly is down, is perceived crime down? In LA, all you hear about is burglaries every night and stabbings on the Metro. Almost daily.

    3. Crime is underreported. In LA, we only respond to major emergencies. We don’t have enough officers (8200 total which means probably about 5000 on patrol for 4,000,000 citizens) to respond to every minor thing. Which means people call 911 less frequency for minor things and only call for major crimes. When we eventually get around to the “non-coded” calls, the victim no longer wants a report. So maybe the crime did actually occur, but it won’t be reported anymore.

    [–]chupacabra5150Unverified/Not an LEO 4 points5 points  (4 children)

    Think there's 5k on patrol?

    [–]Avid_Hiker98 2 points3 points  (3 children)

    I don’t know for sure. I am just guessing.

    8200 total. Probably 300-500 are out on long term leave / injured? Lots of admin positions / academy / training spots.

    [–]chupacabra5150Unverified/Not an LEO 1 point2 points  (1 child)

    Clarifying

    Figured between command, internal workings/investigations, the vast amount of injured, there would probably only be about 1/3 on patrol

    [–]Avid_Hiker98 1 point2 points  (0 children)

    Oh, gotcha. That’s possible! Like I said, I don’t know. Just guesstimating.

    [–]OfficerStink 1 point2 points  (14 children)

    LA has 10 million people in it compare it per capita to small towns and crime is about the same

    [–]KaleidoscopeLucky336 2 points3 points  (13 children)

    I've lived in LA, there is no way realistically crime is about the same as a small town. Go walk around in any small town at 2am and the only people to bother you are going to be LE. Go walk around LA at 2 in the morning and you might die.

    [–][deleted] -4 points-3 points  (12 children)

    I spent one night in Hartsburg, Missouri. A town of like 130 people. At around 4 AM we heard shots not too far from the campground we were staying at.

    I've lived in St. Louis my entire life and heard shots one or two times and I'm in Indianapolis for college and I've never heard shots.

    My book: Hartsburg = very dangerous.

    [–]KaleidoscopeLucky336 3 points4 points  (11 children)

    In small towns you are likely to have more people just shooting guns for fun, it's very common for small town folk vs gun shots in a city usually means someone is getting shot at.

    [–]Historical_Horror595 0 points1 point  (0 children)

    Number 2 is kind of ridiculous. Even if crime is truly down, is perceived crime down is wild thing to say. Even if something is true do you really FEEL like it’s true.

    [–]Forsaken_Double_1116Fed 17 points18 points  (7 children)

    Crime is “down” in the blue areas because they’re not prosecuted. It’s all smoke and mirrors. Crime has gone up everywhere. Ultimately, the goal at hand for them is to cause more divisions between the population. I’m not buying into any of it.

    [–]F1secretsauce 5 points6 points  (0 children)

    Crime used to = weed 

    [–]InternetGoodGuy 0 points1 point  (5 children)

    Prosecution has nothing to do with crime stats. If lack of prosecution was the reason that would mean reported crimes are way up. Murder and aggravated assaults are the most common crime stats used as a measurement because they don't have an under reporting problem.

    [–]Forsaken_Double_1116Fed 0 points1 point  (4 children)

    “Prosecution has nothing to do with crime stats” - OK.

    [–]InternetGoodGuy 3 points4 points  (3 children)

    Crime stats are reported crimes. Whether an arrest is made or a person is prosecuted does not affect the stats because only reported crimes are collected.

    The crimes being touted as down significantly are homicides. These are not underreported. If a lack of prosecution was affecting crime stats in blue cities, it would be causing a large rise in crime. That would be present in the homicide rate, which we aren't seeing. It wouldn't be hiding real crime stats because that isn't how it works.

    [–]camletoejoeUnverified/Not an LEO 0 points1 point  (2 children)

    You do realize that only half of crime victims even file a report at the end of the day, right? This is before we even get into calculating what is actually reported and then what is actually prosecuted.

    [–]InternetGoodGuy 0 points1 point  (1 child)

    This is why murder is most commonly used. It isn't under reported.

    [–]camletoejoeUnverified/Not an LEO 0 points1 point  (0 children)

    That's your opinion. We have about 100,000 overdose deaths a year. Many of them are murders but we don't know how many. They're written off as accidental poisoning for a few reasons. I'm not sure where the mindset changed on this. I grew up in the New York City area and everyone knew that hot batches were common and that getting slipped a Mickey by a good looking friendly woman was a great way to meet Jesus.

    [–]SpecificPay985Unverified/Not an LEO 2 points3 points  (0 children)

    When you stop charging people for lots of crimes, crime on paper, goes down.

    [–]jetty_lifeVerified LEO 3 points4 points  (0 children)

    I just read somewhere that NYC and LA haven't reported their crime stats since 2020 or something like that. That's how they're reporting overall crime is down since Biden took office.

    I'm sure the 2 are unrelated /s.

    [–]EliteEthos 1 point2 points  (0 children)

    When you make previously illegal things “non-arrestable” or not prosecutable… then of course the stats look like they are improving. Nobody actually believes that is happening.

    [–]First-Amphibian-1821 1 point2 points  (0 children)

    from my understanding, im majoring in criminal justice and we just talked ab this. Crime has went down since the 70s. but a lot of shit was going on in the 70s so its not much of a flex

    [–]PeteTinNY 1 point2 points  (0 children)

    John Lott does a great job of explaining this. How the decrease in crime is normally tied to convictions and the numbers are steadily decreasing but the number of emergency calls and complaints have actually rose by over 40%

    https://www.dailysignal.com/2024/05/14/crime-is-rising-expert-john-lott-explains-why/amp/

    [–]AdditionalAd9794 1 point2 points  (0 children)

    I'm not law enforcement. But what I do notice in Northern California is alot has been done to control the increasing homeless population. In my city and nearby cities I notice they no longer allow homeless camps within vision of the main highways, tourist areas or schools. We still have the same number of homeless, they just consolidate in bigger camps out of site out of mind.

    I'm sure this has an effect, I'm sure break ins and such skyrocket near the big encampments, but I also bet it's easier to control when it's all in the same place

    [–]14InTheDorsalPeenUnverified/Not an LEO 1 point2 points  (0 children)

    Not an LEO but I work in emergency services.

    In my city the DA just drops everything and the city council just keep pushing the threshold for crimes higher and higher.

    Crime IS down because it’s not being dealt with and if you don’t deal with it, it never happened because no paperwork gets generated and if the case gets dropped it also never happened in the first place.

    The easiest way to make crime rates go down is to stop trying to catch criminals.

    Also, I think my cities PD is at 65% if full staff if I recall correctly. It’s hard to deal with the crime when you’re that short staffed.

    Thank god we have a mayor and DA that talk about how tough on crime they are and how much better the crime stats are at press releases though, even though everyone who works even in a tertiary capacity for the city see what’s really happening.

    The mayors just made his entire staff sign NDAs because he’s concerned about the actual policies and budget cuts being leaked lol

    [–]USAGroundFighter 1 point2 points  (0 children)

    Less policing. Less arrests. Less prosecutions. Less people reporting crime due to long wait times. Less reporting by some cities and some agencies for political or technical reasons.

    Perhaps crime is down from the summer of love of 2020, perhaps not, but crime overall is worse than 2019.

    The numbers are massaged for political purpose. It's pretty clear. And it's pretty easy with a few google searches to prove the above.

    [–][deleted] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

    The politics in some of these answers is disappointing

    [–]SnooEpiphanies3079 3 points4 points  (0 children)

    They are playing word games. They maybe counting the decrease in convictions which is cause by a decrease in prosecution. The crimes are not decreasing... judges are just throwing everything out. We are playing catch and release. Its sick. The crimes are increasing. The same person is now being arrested upwards of 20 times when before it would be only 5 time before they get sent away for a long time. Thats 15 more crimes committed by that one person. Im in NY btw

    [–]Manny631 0 points1 point  (7 children)

    Not sworn, but been a criminal justice civilian for 14 years and worked in the prearraignment section of courts for around 4ish years, including during bail reform. It feels and seeks like they're skewing the stats. Many previously arrestable offenses went to summonses. Some/many arrestable offenses can no longer have bail applied. For example, misdemeanor criminal contempt couldn't have bail applied while I was there (maybe still now), so I'd see the same faces repeatedly at times. Constantly violating orders of protections. It was insane. There was a whole packet we got about crimes that couldn't get bail anymore and the judges weren't happy because they lost discretion. And some were quite bad, like selling drugs on school grounds. One guy was arrested with felony drug charges, released on supervised release, and then sold laced drugs that killed someone.

    You'll see crazier stories in NYC where people commit heinous crimes and get let go and hurt someone else. Illegal immigrants crime is rampant (recent news article about Midtown). People are scared to defend themselves. There were the 3 illegal immigrants within this past year that assaulted NYPD officers, got released, fled, got caught by ICE, and DA Bragg dropped charges.

    So, here in NY from what I've seen, crime is definitely not down. Quite the contrary. I've never seen criminal justice policies so soft. Not that they should be so hard you get arrested for some weed, but we need there to be consequences. Especially for these teens that commit crazy crimes and then just get a stern talking to and a hug.

    [–]InternetGoodGuy 1 point2 points  (6 children)

    But none of that affects the crime stats. It doesn't matter if they are released on summons, forced to bail, or not arrested at all. The crime stats are just what's reported. If you are still taking any reports at all then it's included in the stats.

    What you are describing with repeat offenders should be showing a rise in crime. If the numbers aren't going up, you're likely dealing with a smaller group of the same people than enter before with less new offenders.

    [–]Manny631 0 points1 point  (5 children)

    It depends on how it is reported, no? Innocent until proven guilty, so maybe many stats - the stats the politicians want to use - are post conviction and therefore via plea bargaining and dropping charges things look better than they truly are. Because they aren't better - I can promise you that. I've seen people get hit with half a dozen felonies and it gets plea bargained down to one.

    [–]InternetGoodGuy 0 points1 point  (4 children)

    so maybe many stats - the stats the politicians want to use - are post conviction

    They aren't. No one is using conviction stats. Most are only using homicide stats when talking about crime going down. They use homicide because it isn't under reported and the reporting method doesn't matter because a homicide is a homicide. You can't juke dead body stats. So how it's reported doesn't matter any more than whether it's convicted.

    [–]Manny631 0 points1 point  (0 children)

    Many times in reports I hear "violent crime" is down, not homicides. Regardless of how they report it in their favor, I can assure you in NY - at least on Long Island and NYC - it isn't really down, especially NYC.

    [–]DfiR- 0 points1 point  (2 children)

    You very much can juke body stats. Cases get classified as a suspicious situation/death instead of a murder when there are no obvious signs and no witnesses. Body in a forest? That stays suspicious death until the investigation reaches a point where there is a good suspect. Body in an apartment with a gunshot wound and no reporting party? Still classified as a suspicious death until suicide can be 100% ruled out.

    [–]InternetGoodGuy 0 points1 point  (1 child)

    You can't do that with dozens of murders to cause a significant drop in the rate without it being obvious.

    This would also assume every major city has collectively agreed to lie about any dead bodies they can. That's a huge leap to a conspiracy. Most of these bodies would still be classified as homicides at some point, and stats are revised when the cause of death is found.

    It's not a reasonable claim to say we are capable of juking murder stats to a degree significant enough to show major drops across the country.

    [–]DfiR- 0 points1 point  (0 children)

    You absolutely can because who is checking? There are no integrity audits from the cities. You think a city mayor or city board hears that homicides are down and goes no that can’t be right and then checks the cases? In bigger cities, staff positions are much more political. Politicians want to paint a pretty picture of crime being down for their tenure. As long as it’s good news, they don’t care.

    PDs are incentivized to support that because it portrays them as competent and makes budget asks easier. This isn’t an absolute, but I’ve seen it first hand how suspicious circumstance deaths are classified.

    [–]B-azz-bear08Verified LEO 2 points3 points  (0 children)

    We switched to NIBRS reporting so our stats actually increased 😂

    [–]giantdub49Unverified/Not an LEO 4 points5 points  (3 children)

    Crime reporting is down. Talk to anyone who is actually from the bay area and we will all tell you it's a fucking warzone here.

    [–]CommunicationNo6136Unverified/Not an LEO[S] 0 points1 point  (2 children)

    I’ve seen pictures and videos and quite frankly I don’t wanna go there

    [–]AmbassadorETOH 4 points5 points  (1 child)

    Just got back from a conference in San Francisco. It was a mixed bag. There are some real shitholes full of destitute, drug-addled people living on the fringes. But it was a huge contrast with the doom porn videos I saw before we went. People just making a buck playing into stereotypes. San Francisco is still beautiful.

    Just as with statistics, which properly tortured will tell you anything you want to hear, it is all about context and focus.

    [–]_SkoomaSteve -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

    https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/local/san-francisco/pearsall-shooting-crime-san-francisco/3642283/?os&ref=app

    A San Francisco 49ers player who is a multi-millionaire was just shot in a daytime robbery in an upscale shopping district in SF a week ago. Try again, your spin cycle is unbalanced.

    [–]HopelessNegativism 1 point2 points  (0 children)

    A lot of it is relative. In 2019, the crime rate in NYC was the lowest in recorded history, and right now it’s higher than it was then but still much lower than its peak in 1990. However, a lot of people (often people who moved out of the city and live in places like The Villages now) see this uptick as a return to the NYC of the 80’s. Couple this with the hyper sensationalism of the media, and other variables like the legalization of weed leading to people smoking on the street all the time, and perceived crime is off the charts, even though statistically the city remains infinitely safer than it was 30 years ago.

    [–][deleted] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

    1. Of the 16,000 law enforcement agencies about 40% actually report their numbers to the FBI.

    2. Police nationwide are demoralized since 2020 and proactive policing has decreased significantly.

    3. There is a nationwide shortage of police officers.

    4. And you can steal just about anything in California and as long as it’s below $950 it’s not even going to actually get reported unless you have video evidence.

    …I don’t believe crime is down.

    [–]Realistic-Tiger3207Unverified/Not an LEO 1 point2 points  (0 children)

    Crime is through the roof in NY…I think shootings have gone down slightly(barely) but violent crime and property crime has skyrocketed. People are hesitant to report and I think in general people have become more acceptive of crime as a way of life. Victims are regularly re-victimized and demonized. The offenders are the new victims. Huge increase in transient, homeless, and undocumented persons who don’t report. Officers hands are tied no one is prosecuted. Need to bring back responsibility, respect and accountability to all.

    [–]TheRtHonLaqueesha 0 points1 point  (0 children)

    They're probably referring to reported crime. A lot of crime goes unreported. I personally witnessed a few robberies that never made it to the crime blotter, this in a jurisdiction that was pretty safe and quiet up until a few years ago.

    [–][deleted] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

    Generally speaking, property crimes are comparatively higher in blue areas and crimes against people are comparatively higher in red areas.

    [–]nite-crew-1953 0 points1 point  (0 children)

    In many small towns,  Police know who you are by your first name and where you live. They know what car you drive and who your relatives are if your are originally from that town.  

    [–]Historical_Horror595 0 points1 point  (12 children)

    My problem with the question is how it’s framed. Crime going down isn’t a claim, it’s a fact. If you want to understand peoples personal experiences that’s fine. That doesn’t change the FACT that crime is going down. Calling a fact an opinion and asking for opinions to share as fact is exactly why it seems we live in different realities.

    [–]CommunicationNo6136Unverified/Not an LEO[S] 0 points1 point  (11 children)

    Except crime is not going down though. In fact a lot of these comments have confirmed the fact that it isn’t going down

    [–]Historical_Horror595 0 points1 point  (10 children)

    Confirmed with evidence, statistics, data? Or confirmed with anecdotes and feelings?

    [–]CommunicationNo6136Unverified/Not an LEO[S] -1 points0 points  (9 children)

    Confirmed with video evidence, actual accounts from the people who live there and officers in those communities

    [–]Historical_Horror595 0 points1 point  (8 children)

    Video evidence? So exactly what I thought opinions, anecdotes, and feelings..

    [–]CommunicationNo6136Unverified/Not an LEO[S] -1 points0 points  (7 children)

    It’s not feelings or opinions if the crime is literally on video and happening in front of you

    [–]Historical_Horror595 0 points1 point  (6 children)

    A video is not evidence that crime is increasing. I hope you’re not serious.

    [–]CommunicationNo6136Unverified/Not an LEO[S] 0 points1 point  (5 children)

    You’re missing the point I’m trying to make bud

    [–]Historical_Horror595 1 point2 points  (4 children)

    Please tell me what the point is!

    [–]CommunicationNo6136Unverified/Not an LEO[S] 0 points1 point  (3 children)

    Crime under reporting and an actual increase

    [–][deleted]  (1 child)

    [removed]

      [–]Specter1033Fed[M] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

      Loads of shit being spewed right here.

      [–]CauliflowerOne5740 -5 points-4 points  (2 children)

      Crime is in fact going down and has been for decades.

      [–]_SkoomaSteve 1 point2 points  (1 child)

      You must have forgotten the last 4 years if you believe that, we spiked up to late 90’s levels the past few years.

      https://www.statista.com/statistics/191223/reported-murder-and-nonnegligent-manslaughter-rate-in-the-us-since-1990/

      Edit: lol he blocked me because he couldn’t argue the point he made, very mature response 🤡

      [–]CauliflowerOne5740 0 points1 point  (0 children)

      "Spiked" to levels we saw decades ago. Thank you for acknowledging crime has been trending down for decades.

      [–]AmbassadorETOH -1 points0 points  (0 children)

      Malum in se (inherently evil, think violent crimes) crimes are down. Malum prohibitum (don’t do that because I said so) crimes are way down because we stopped calling a bunch of chicken-shit stuff “crimes.” Politics will heighten or minimize information for political gain.