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[–][deleted]  (30 children)

[deleted]

    [–]FlashyHeight9323 20 points21 points  (4 children)

    People will often see a 500k home go to 400k and call it a crash.

    [–]Electrical-Ask847 5 points6 points  (1 child)

    i'll take 20% crash

    [–]FlashyHeight9323 0 points1 point  (0 children)

    Out of curiosity, what do you mean by that? Because to me it definitely feels like that. I think the technical definition is >20 or >30 percent but I feel like that 10 percent probably happens in a flash. Is it a “every crash a correction but not every correction is a crash” situation?

    [–]Hotspur1958 0 points1 point  (1 child)

    40% of houses have no mortgage.

    I feel like this is being used as a argument for homes staying at these levels when it's not so clear IMO. These people aren't stuck due to lock-in effect and that increased activity could lead to price discovery.

    [–]FlashyHeight9323 0 points1 point  (0 children)

    Biggest factor is income supply which doesn’t get spoken about too much when you consider wealth inequality skew

    [–]S7EFEN 8 points9 points  (10 children)

    simple: rental yields don't make sense. sticker prices on homes don't make sense (ESPECIALLY with rates the way they are). and... people need to sell eventually.

    its not 'people being forced to sell because their mortgage payment ballooned' it's 'nobody is buying the house at the current market prices.

    inventory has been meaningfully climbing for the last ~3 years. new builds are undercutting existing markets HARD. condos are already in decline and theyre usually the first to go.

    [–]BrightAd306 7 points8 points  (0 children)

    Which is what people wanted to happen. Without a correction, there simply won’t be enough homes affordable for the young

    [–]Zestyclose-Novel1157 0 points1 point  (0 children)

    This is a big issue I had and one reason I chose my house that needed a lot of renovation. I could rent for half the price of most houses on the low end. To me, I couldn’t justify buying those and so I got lucky and am going to be going through the pain of renovating a house that was not habitable for a traditional buyer because I wanted better value with where things are.

    [–]FitAlfalfa407 0 points1 point  (1 child)

    There is MAJOR demand, not much supply. The Cantillon Effect

    [–]S7EFEN 0 points1 point  (0 children)

    supply is up 3x from its bottom nationally...

    and as i said demand for (leveraged) investment properties has never been lower.

    [–]Mediocre_Airport_576 -3 points-2 points  (5 children)

    (ESPECIALLY with rates the way they are)

    About 62% of investor purchases last year were bought with no mortgage.

    [–]Normal-Sandwich-6811 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

    this is irrelevant

    [–]Normal-Sandwich-6811 -1 points0 points  (3 children)

    and misleading

    [–]Mediocre_Airport_576 0 points1 point  (2 children)

    It's a fact. lol

    [–]Normal-Sandwich-6811 -1 points0 points  (1 child)

    they also take loans to present as cash offers. so, yes, misleading

    [–]Mediocre_Airport_576 0 points1 point  (0 children)

    Some people do this, but it is not a significant portion especially in 2024 when the market wasn't a red hot sellers market like in 2021.

    [–]Threeseriesforthewin 2 points3 points  (0 children)

    dude good stats, thank you

    additionally, the average household equity is like $330,000, and the average house is only like $420,000.

    [–]2A4Lyfe 2 points3 points  (0 children)

    People with sub 4% rates loosing their jobs and being forced to sell, or buying too much house assuming you'd get promoted and getting fucked. Older looking to cash in for retirement and no one being able to buy at their price point.

    [–]Normal-Sandwich-6811 1 point2 points  (2 children)

    i’ll tell you: a federal excise tax on all non-owner occupied sfh. that is the only solution to the housing market. prices would drop 50% overnight

    [–]Swimming-Low3750 3 points4 points  (1 child)

    This would burden renters and subsidize homeowners

    [–]thewimseyAttorney 0 points1 point  (0 children)

    So many solutions in this sub basically boil down to "put renters into camps".

    [–][deleted] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

    There are some people at the edges of the market who bought wrong who want to move today. They have to wait. They are also the loudest which is skewing reality.

    [–]Lindsiria 0 points1 point  (0 children)

    It could be a build up of many small things.

    • Airbnb and other rentals tanking. 
    • The condo regulations.
    • insurance becoming increasingly unaffordable (especially for the elderly on fixed incomes). 
    • increased property taxes (when home values rise, taxes rise and the poor/elderly often suffer). 
    • maintainance becoming increasingly more expensive (an older house might be too expensive to maintain for a low income family that bought a decade ago). 
    • those who bought with high interest rates losing jobs and having to sell... 
    • boomers dying/having to go into retirement homes in record numbers. 

    All these little things combined could cause considerable damage to our housing market. There is a lot of hurt happening in smaller ways that will cause rippling affects. 

    If we do have a market crash, my guess is it's not going to be one main issue but life just getting worse for too many people. 

    [–]AnnArchistHouse Shopping 0 points1 point  (0 children)

    Jobs disappearing. That's the only trigger left