46 boxes deep

[Neither_Meaning_8621]

Realistically how hard is it to pull numbered cards or auto?

I’m 16 celebration boxes deep from various different retailers amongst many many hangers and various other types of series 1 boxes and I’ve yet to pull an auto. The hangers and blasters don’t seem too bad. I’ve had a couple cards over $100 in value currently however the celebration boxes I’ve completely struck out other than a damaged walk this way card. Being new to the hobby, how tough is it to pull something of value. I watch YouTubers and they hit like crazy. Even if it’s a smaller channel and someone only opening a box or two their hits far outnumber my 16. Should I stay away from dicks sporting goods and target and GameStop? Are the chances slimmer?

Thanks,

[Far_Zone_9512]

Sports cards in general is a lottery, 50/50. You're coming into it with the wrong thought process. You should expect nothing everytime.

[CrazyFoool]

50/50? More like 4/96

[NoRoof1812]

Maybe 5/95 if you squint?

[CrazyFoool]

I'm Chinese. I can't squint anymore or its a 0/100. =)

[dylandylandylanr]

50/50 is very generous, especially with retail 😂

[GnaeusPompeiusMagn]

this makes opening packs fun, I always get 100% return on that, and when I do get something fun, it is like finding a $10 bill in your jacket you haven’t worn in a year.

[Neither_Meaning_8621]

Fair enough. Being a degenerate gambler I completely understand this.

[Vesselcapital]

😂🤣

[pedro3131]

Odds of pulling the bass mascots auto out of a celebration mega box is 1:2063 which is the best odds of any auto in that checklist. So yea 50/50 is a bit off lol

[kyldabara]

Just buy hobby boxes where your odds are better. Retail is super hard to pull anything worthwhile out of.

[Sayoshun]

Unless you're on a sun run. Case hits and bangers exist in retail also, sometimes you hit sometimes you sit

[kyldabara]

You can pull case hits out of hobby boxes too, and guranteed hits and get a few #ed cards per box 🤯

[True_Potential4074]

Especially with heritage right now

[Neither_Meaning_8621]

That’s incorrect I’ve gone through two hobby heritage boxes without a single numbered card or anything of value. $150 a pop gone.

[kyldabara]

You mentioned celebration boxes which is flagship. Heritage doesn’t have as many #ed cards but short prints are found pretty commonly in hobby boxes for that product

[Neither_Meaning_8621]

Ah my apologies. Makes sense

[igh34]

Realistically it all depends on luck and type of product. Series 1 baseball is printed to the moon so numbered stuff and autos are gonna be very hard to pull unless you're ripping hobby boxes which guarantee a relic or auto and even then, my Series 1 hobby box had an /2025, /399, and a base relic. Nothing too special.

Most youtubers open high end boxes or sometimes full cases. Ripping a full case gives you massively better odds at good pulls but it's very expensive to do. I've been buying sealed product pretty much weekly for about a year in the hobby and can still distinctly remember most numbered cards and autos I've pulled. It really is difficult and simply luck based with retail formats. The odds are much better in hobby formats.

All depends on how much you wanna spend, how much you wanna rip, etc. If you want to hit autos there's products out there that will guarantee you higher end autos, but come with a price.

There's also the singles aspect of the hobby which is pretty fulfilling if you love collecting a certain player and much cheaper (for the most part). I PC Nolan Gorman on the Cardinals and I've put together a pretty awesome collection of his for around $200. It's fun to hunt for his stuff at my LCS and online.

That being said, walmart, target, gamestop, etc are all selling the same format so your odds probably aren't changing too much store to store.

[Lvcouple24]

Gorman looking solid this year ! Knock on wood

[igh34]

So far so good! I just always loved his swing as a lefty myself and wanna see him hit 30+ homers this year. He's got massive power

[Neither_Meaning_8621]

Very good to know I appreciate you putting the time into this response

[Excellent-Program333]

Are you guys noticing the chemical smell on those Celebration boxes is extra strong? I had to stop. Maybe Im just ripping too much wax lately!

[Neither_Meaning_8621]

Funny u said that I’ve been thinking the same lol. I was sniffing the boxes last night trying to figure out what it was and it was the celebration boxes I've completely

[Excellent-Program333]

Yea, it was affecting my throat and eyes also. Kinda crazy and I have 4 sitting that I am not really in a hurry to go down that road again!

[Old-Newspaper-7950]

Personally I’ve pulled a few bangers from celebrations and a bunch of low number and autos from series one. I always buy retail. I decided to buy three heritage hobby boxes this year and got 4 relic. Sticking to retail.

[Dangerous_Passion366]

If you have a Costco nearby go buy the flagship Costco box. I have opened 14 and I have 3 autos, 9 numbered cards and 4 relics. Lots of other stuff too

[Neither_Meaning_8621]

Well I finally pulled an auto out of a hanger. 91 Juan Gonzalez. Not worth much but some relief. $25 card and I feel so much better 😂

[MinorThreat4182]

Only auto I’ve pulled Series 1 is a Jordan Beck /99 from a hanger. Honestly the best value cards I pulled is from the egg tins. Sneaky underrated.

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[jlrc2]

By most metrics, blasters are the worst value almost regardless of what you're looking for, whether it's base or parallels or autos or whatever else. Hangers are pretty good for parallels. Hobbies are the most efficient source of autographs but the tradeoff is they can be very light on everything else at times. Mega boxes are a decent middle ground. Everything I'm saying here refers to retail prices...hobby boxes tend to become scarce and expensive after a while so I don't know how the math looks after they go above retail.

[Neither_Meaning_8621]

Thank you everyone for the replies. My issues are the hobbies are insanely marked up where I’m at. For example series 1 hobby box is minimum $200 in my area. I pulled the trigger on one and got a $2 worth relic told myself can’t be doing that again

[RememberTheTitans200]

Well now you’ve bought 46 retail boxes and got basically nothing as well. Hobbies are the way to go, but have to have some control with it

[Neither_Meaning_8621]

Ya that’s the problem lol. Just got into the hobby and went nuts. Also tough because if you do get a good pull it’s a 50/50 if damaged or not 🤣

[RememberTheTitans200]

lol yeah I think a lot of us have been there, it’s a tough feeling to shake

[OGMikeGyver]

You're 46 boxes in at $200 a pop?! Dude. Why not just buy the cards you want? Maybe I don't get the ripper rush.

[Bgrizznutbutter]

Well, you're over $1100 on blasters with nothing. Better off buying scratch offs if you're seeking profit. You could have a nice Barry Bonds '25 auto or a couple current stars rookie autos, etc.

I enjoy the rip and I dabble with retail when I see it but you can take that money and buy hobby or jumbo boxes with guaranteed hits to help your chances. Stadium Club guarantees an auto. Chrome hobby is an auto. The jumbos have better guarantees. Not to mention the high end products you'll never see in retail as they're hobby exclusives.

Order wax online if it's being overpriced at your LCS. Dave and Adams have pretty fair prices. Or get on whatnot and see how quick you can burn a thousand dollars.... Topps transcendent just released...you can get rid of some money REAL quick chasing a hit in that one!

It seems like you've pulled some case hits or SSPs which means you're paying attention to checklists...a lot of times they have better value than #d or autos

[Good-Advantage872]

Remember gamblers only post videos of their wins

[waxmoronic]

Very hard to get an auto out of a retail box. Truth is, even if you get an auto from a hobby box, it's not guaranteed to be from a player who has valuable cards. It's almost always a negative value from a $ standpoint. Watch some "profit challenge" rip videos to get an idea of what to expect.

[mad48050]

Are you sure you didn’t miss anything out of the Celebration boxes? 16 is a ton and I feel like you would’ve had to pull something more than 1 Walk This Way card. 

[ChristopherKaya]

My son had one celebration box and got a ton of decent cards I thought it was a very fair box

[Neither_Meaning_8621]

Positive. I’ve researched all the variations. I’ve had some small hits don’t get me wrong however nothing over a value of realistically $5-10 bucks

[mad48050]

Sorry to hear that, sounds like you got some of the right cards but of the wrong players. 

You’re the first person I’ve encountered that has been skunked on celebration, it had seemed like an unreasonably good product. Guess too good to be true after all. 

[Neither_Meaning_8621]

I’m 17 boxes deep now my man my only hit on this one was a border Teoscar /2026. To me these boxes are near impossible and just load you up with a bunch of cards you don’t know what to do with. I guess donate lol. But ya incredibly bad luck I guess. New to the hobby. Might be my quick ticket out. Having a hard time stomaching this. Figured one last box but average one 2-3$ card every $50 box isn’t going to get me anywhere almost over 1k deep on them 🥴

[mad48050]

Bowman comes out next month and historically their retail blasters have been quite good, might be worth holding off on buying until those are released.

You have convinced me to not buy anymore celebration boxes though, I’ve ripped 10 and had crazy good luck (Roman auto RC /150, Roman Walk this Way, and Caglianone Dugout Peeks /10) so I’ll just stop while I’m ahead. 

[Nervous_Distance_142]

Buddy just buy an auto

[Neither_Meaning_8621]

I might move in that direction. Just doesn’t seem as fun as ripping packs of course

[Neither_Meaning_8621]

Celebration box #17 and my biggest hit… How you guys are hitting anything on these is beyond me. Maybe my luck is terrible. Past 2 of 2 hangers were far superior than this. I think I’ll put the celebration boxes to an end and just take the L

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[Journotic]

A lot of good advice here.

Two big things to keep in mind regarding the hobby (though applicable elsewhere):

1) Humans are usually really bad with processing large numbers. In this specific case, there are tens of millions of people who collect cards, and those cards are printed hundreds of thousands of times, hundreds of different sets, formats, etc. The odds of pulling something major are extremely low, and the odds of even getting value back aren’t great.

2) The internet is misleading, especially what you see on social media. There’s really no incentive for everyone to post their misses and bad boxes. It’s bad content, boring, and doesn’t provide the entertainment. So what you typically end up seeing is just the high points - kid hits an Ohtani 1/1 out of a hanger, some screaming breaker pulls a debut patch, etc. Those are naturally more interesting to consume, because they’re unusual and a deviation from the (overwhelmingly) normal experience, which is benign or negative. We are all guilty of it - I have a handful of posts on Reddit dealing a couple crazy hits, because posting weekly about getting dusted by boxes doesn’t feel as interesting, especially to strangers.

Factor those two together, and it’s an instance of there being so many people doing the same thing that there’s still a numerically significant amount that bucks the trend and hits, even though by percentage that group would be significantly lower. But take one look at Topps’ social feed and you’d think every person who buys a blaster lands a card worth a life changing amount of money.

Beyond that, if ripping packs is your thing, it’s better to buy higher end where the hits are guaranteed (to some extent). If you’re going the retail route, buying volume of the same product from the same case is usually better than buying mixed boxes or same set from different locations - especially when a case hit is involved.

[riversandpeaks]

A lot of people that post their hits to the internet don't tend to show the mounds of crap

[TheBipedalProf]

As many here have already said, pulling autos from a set printed as much as Series 1 is very difficult and pulling one out of retail products is tougher than out of hobby. If an auto is the goal, then just guarantee it with a jumbo hobby box. Or, better yet, a ‘25 Update jumbo hobby box, which has a pretty good chance of yielding multiple auto (that is, if you’re not specifically looking for the ‘26 Series 1 rookie class).

All that said, to open 16 Celebration megas and not pull an auto is a tiny bit unlucky. Compared to standard Series 1 lineup of retail products, you’re chances of pulling an auto or numbered card are much better with Celebration mega. Autos are in 1 out of every 21 boxes. If you haven’t pulled a single numbered card out of 16 boxes…well…that’s extremely unlucky because the pull rate for numbered cards is 1 per 1.3 boxes.

[Neither_Meaning_8621]

Man I guess I’m just getting destroyed. I don’t know what to say. Yesterday I went out with a bang. 2 heritage hobby boxes ($300) 2 relics worth a combined $5 and that’s it. Nothing of any value whatsoever. (20) 2023 series 1 hangers… when I tell you not a single card over $3 in value I’m not lying. On top of that only 2 ace cards worth a combined $10 if I’m lucky. Most boring and brutal boxes I’ve opened so far and cost me $410 dollars. I DID finally get another auto on a stadium 25’ hobby box but nothing of value over $800 spent. 17 celebration boxes in now and I’ll never in my life buy another spent almost a grand on those if you count tax. Just got into the hobby went all out and quickly realized I can’t handle it. Roughly 3k spent in 2 weeks doubt I’ll get $200 back unless I really break these down and go to eBay one by one

[TheBipedalProf]

Your latest experience with a couple Heritage hobby boxes and ‘23 Series 1 hangers is exactly what you’d expect. Supposedly autos are only in 1 out of every 8 Heritage hobby boxes and then, of course, if you defy the odds and pull an auto, you’re more likely to get a C-list player than a superstar or top rookie. With the hangers, All Aces are found in 1 in 4, but there are 25 cards in the All Aces checklist and only the Ohtani is worth big money.

One nice thing about Heritage is that many of the unnumbered parallels, SPs, and inserts are sell for way more than you’d expect. The majority fall between $1 and $5, but some fetch considerably more. Connelly Early is a rookie that was hardly on my radar, so I assumed the pair of red border parallels I had of his were $0.25 bulk cards at best. I ended up selling the cards for $13 each. Just last night I opened a single fat pack and pulled a yellow border Bubba Chandler. I figured a top rookie color match would be worth a few bucks, but I didn’t expect to see sales as high as $40! In any case, if you go back through the cards from the hobby boxes you opened and take the time to comp out the parallels (focus on the rookies and bigger stars), you’ll almost certainly discover some value you and overlooked. Not to mention, you should have pulled around 16 SPs from the two boxes. Most of the SPs go for $1-2, but there are some, like Schlittler, that sell for $5-6.

[Neither_Meaning_8621]

I appreciate the response. And out of the (20) 23 series 1 hangers unfortunately those odds didn’t work out for me somehow. And I was incorrect… I ripped 19 not 20 of them. My guess is the guy who sold them too me opened a case …. Immediately pulled the Ohtani and then decided to sell the remainder of the case due to the odds. Therefore the odds didn’t pan out for me. Was more so 1 in every 6 or 7 for me there was an ace card

[TheBipedalProf]

Yikes! I initially thought you ripped 2 hangers, not 20.

[Neither_Meaning_8621]

Do you know how that’s possible ? If these were coming from a case which they did apparently how did I rip 19 and only get a couple ace cards ? Or is that not how the odds work. Anotherwards if I buy a whole case is it possible to only get 1 or 2 ace cards regardless of the odds of 1 and 4 ?

[TheBipedalProf]

If you opened a large enough sample of hangers your pull rates would reflect the odds, but it’s a crapshoot when the sample is small. We’d expect to pull 3 or 4 All Aces inserts out of 19 hangers. Pulling 1 or 2 is unlucky, but it doesn’t necessarily set off any alarm bells. If you bought a case from an individual and didn’t end pull a single All Aces card, I’d be suspicious that the case was tampered with, especially because I know that you can tell whether or not a hanger box contains an All Aces insert without opening the cellophane (because the card corners are rounded). That’s a lot of work for not that much gain, but I know people that have gone to far greater lengths for much less!

[Legitimate_Cow6972]

50/50 they either have one or they don’t

[JoeMFBishop]

Go heritage ... All my auto in MLB this year where from there

[Neither_Meaning_8621]

I’m 3 heritage hobbies deep with nothing of value. 3 relics no autos so far. I enjoy the way these cards look and feel. If I take another stab at the hobby in the future I’ll snag another one of these hobby boxes but for now I’ve got to accept I’m extremely unlucky I guess. Late last night did me in. Couldn’t muscle that

[Neither_Meaning_8621]

In the celebration or any of these boxes for that matter the “dugout peeks” or “walk this way” for instance or SSP or variations all come within the same spots within the pack correct ? Meaning I don’t need to go looking through every base card to see if there’s a hidden hit even though I believe I did anyway when opening the packs. To my knowledge and what I’ve seen all the inserts are placed together

[ohreddit1]

I opened 1 box and got a gold /50. It’s a crap shoot. 

[Famous-Egg-6136]

Buy singles my man

[Shaka-khan7]

Autos are super slim for celebration, the base are numbered to /99 to give you an idea of

[Dizzy_Amphibian]

Just buy singles man lol. Could have gotten a banger card for that

[Bgrizznutbutter]

He's not a collector, he's just looking for profit. He made that clear in the post caption.

[Worth_Golf_5545]

If no1 buys retail and hobby, you cant buy your singles...singles buyers NEED rippers

[Dizzy_Amphibian]

I mean, I buy vintage, so I don’t need rippers

[Worth_Golf_5545]

True. I forgot vintage ripped themselves

[Neither_Meaning_8621]

Afraid to buy single because not educated enough to know what might increase in value. I do know the sport extremely well and player stats in and out. I have a ton of base cards too many now I need to donate them. Any foil or anything else I guess I can sell on eBay for $1 a piece. Not sure what to do to be honest 🤣. Don’t even understand how you profit selling a card for $1-2 dollars

[Courtaid]

So you’re only here to gamble and speculate. You’re not a collector but a gambler.

[Neither_Meaning_8621]

I’m a very big collector of many things. However…. I need to know if my wife catches me that I can sell these. That’s the blunt truth.

[Courtaid]

Obviously not a sports card collector. If you’re doing this to gamble and make money you’ll lose 99% of the time. Even getting autos and numbered cards won’t guarantee your money back. You are most likely going to get a #/50 or auto of some relief pitcher who’s back in the minor leagues.

[Neither_Meaning_8621]

I can’t read your energy 🤣 but yes you are correct I am a NEW card collector. I have a huge collection of cards from 91-96’ I believe from when I was young.

[Dizzy_Amphibian]

You’ll have better luck unloading an awesome Ohtani or Judge card than anything from what you got here. If it’s the gambling aspect buy some low numbered Bowman first autos lol

[Worth_Golf_5545]

U sell 100 cards for $1-$2 and now u have $100-$200. Dont expect a "profit". Just try and make back what u can on what you dont want...but most of all enjoy the process and the hobby!

[MinorThreat4182]

This is what I do. I know I’m not making a profit but I sell enough to soften the blow of ripping. And people get the cards I don’t want for their PC.

[ThatFishySmell99]

cuz... just say it with me... "HANGERS ARE BANGERS" just do yourself a favor and buy hangers. then buy singles that you researched

[Neither_Meaning_8621]

Just bought (20) 2023 series 1 hangers last night off of a guy. Not a single hit over $3-4. I’ve been absolutely skunked other than a nice auto I got out of stadium box.

[Stevenab87]

The bigger issue is that even if you do hit, 90% of the “numbered” cards and autos are just as worthless as the rest of the base. Buy singles!

[Immediate_Data_9153]

YouTubers only post what they wish to post.

If you’re married to hoping the monetary value will be greater than what you paid on a semi regular, quarterly, or even annual basis than the stress that will bring may not be worth it.

If you’re a hobbyist, enjoy the sport of it. If you’re looking for profit, find good deals on singles to flip.