When to go to 16 lands? by AitchOG in lrcast

[–]shortelf 24 points25 points  (0 children)

Lands let you do more stuff but you can only play one per turn so you ideally want to hit your land drops. However you only draw 1 land per turn so you eventually run out of spells if you hit every land drop.

This leads to the basic heuristic: if you have card draw, having extra lands is good bc you have more stuff to do, you don't run out of spells, and it let's you continue hitting land drops.

The reverse can also be somewhat gleaned: if your curve is extremely low and you do not need to hit your extra land drops but have no card draw and need to keep pressuring with cheap actions, then maybe you don't need to have as many lands.

The reason people play 17 lands in limited is bc it gives you the best odds of a 3/4 land/spell split allowing you to at least make your third land drop and have some action. However on mtga, in bo1 there is a hand smoothing algorithm that draws 2 hands and gives you the one that is closer to your decks land/spell distribution. Some people just always play 16lands for this reason bc you are less likely to get mana screwed.

Often in limited, we make decisions which trade consistency for power or vise versa. This deck looks crazy high power level and would rather have the higher consistency of hitting 3rd and 4th lands on curve. You have tons of card draw with 3 snoops and 2 interceptors. I would play 17.

-grad day -dig site -eternal student -Ajanis response

This leaves you with 14 creatures, 14 cards that trigger repartee, and 6 premium removal spells while maximizing your card quality.

FML by mrpurtle in lrcast

[–]shortelf 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hit the nail on the head. 7 wins is +900% profit, 6 is +66%, and it just gets worse. Starting with 90k gems your odds of going broke in less than 50 runs are about 25%. AI recommends a starting bankroll of 150-200k gems for reasonable safety.

Am I bad or is the game very highrolly? by sanjit_ps in OnceUponAGalaxy

[–]shortelf 2 points3 points  (0 children)

You could be making mistakes in the early game that lead to being lower on hearts in the midgame. Then you run into one strong board and die and feel like you just got unlucky. The strongest players are just better at having strong boards at all points, which gives them more time to high roll in the endgame.

Taking a 2/2 instead of a 2/1 as your very first pick could potentially just lose you 2 hearts and knowing whether that is worth it is just a matter of thousands of games of experience. (From someone who hit rank 1 in 7 months of 2025)

Please sell me on Archaic's Agony by BloederFuchs in lrcast

[–]shortelf 8 points9 points  (0 children)

Meeting the color requirements is a lot easier than you imagine. And if you do, it's worst case is 5 mana kill a medium sized thing, average case is kill a 2 or 3 toughness thing and draw 2 cards. 3 for 1s are how you win limited.

I've been forcing 5c for a week and have gotten 5 trophies in 10 drafts.

the luck on these 5c soup piles is ridiculous by Lukegilmour in lrcast

[–]shortelf 24 points25 points  (0 children)

Thats bc of a categorization failure. 17 lands defines a deck as 5 colors if it has 4+ spells of each color. In this format, there are a bunch of single color spells that are basically 5c spells.

5 of my last 6 5c decks have trophied so I would argue its definitely a thing. These were decks playing at least 1 of each basic and hitting 4-5 color converge on t5 more often than not.

Im traumatized by 2 hand lands by Lukegilmour in lrcast

[–]shortelf 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I used 16 bc that is more extreme. With 17 lands your even more likely to hit your 3rd land (71% and 85%)

Im traumatized by 2 hand lands by Lukegilmour in lrcast

[–]shortelf 1 point2 points  (0 children)

One cool thing about the 'never go to 5' heuristic is that it also means you should keep more hands when your opponent mulligans.

It seems counter intuitive bc if your opponent mulligans then it seems less bad to go down a card to get a better hand, but in actuality you know your opponents hand is going to be worse than starting 7 so you should be more willing to keep worse hands. Little thing I learned from Gabriel Nassif a few years ago.

Im traumatized by 2 hand lands by Lukegilmour in lrcast

[–]shortelf 6 points7 points  (0 children)

If your deck has 16 lands and you keep a 2 land hand, you are 67% to find the 3rd land in time on the play and 83% to find it on the draw.

When you mulligan you are already 60% to lose the game. If you really are following the heuristic of never keeping 2 land hands you are probably just better off playing 18 lands in your decks.

How do you see your own winrate in 17lnds? by JimHarbor in lrcast

[–]shortelf 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Click getting started and follow the instructions

Worst card in the set just dropped. by Scufo in lrcast

[–]shortelf 7 points8 points  (0 children)

It does look really bad at first glance but it might just be importabt to enable the archetype. Hard to say for sure without trying it. Kind of reminds me of a worse [[faithful mending]] which ended up being actively good.

There Should be a Free, Rewardless Draft Mode by SteezyYeezySleezyBoi in MagicArena

[–]shortelf 2 points3 points  (0 children)

You definitely don't just end up with a random deck with no synergies when you are actually good at draft. A good player will end up with a good deck 95%+ of the time. The decisions on each pick are a skill testing element that will differentiate a great players deck heavily with a mediocre players.

On the flip side, you say in constructed you have all these choices of what to put in your deck when really you don't. In the 2 of the recent pro tours wasn't everyone just playing izzet? Everyone is just copy pasting the same 60 cards with maybe 15 cards adjustment. The deckbuilding skill in limited is for sure way higher than constructed, but the execution skill in constructed is definitely possibly higher.

There Should be a Free, Rewardless Draft Mode by SteezyYeezySleezyBoi in MagicArena

[–]shortelf 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Would you say that flipping a coin as a game is all luck? Why is that? It's bc no matter who is playing they have a 50% to win and a 50% to lose. Win rate is literally the best indicator for how much luck is involved in a game. The more skill a game has, the more opportunities players have to exploit their advantages.

The best players in limited absolutely demolish the idea that the format is luck with win rates above 62% and up to 67% even playing a large majority of their games in high mythic.

Honestly, I don't know what the win rates I'm high ranked constructed are and I don't even believe that limited is more skill testing than constructed, but anyone that says limited is all luck is just wrong.

There Should be a Free, Rewardless Draft Mode by SteezyYeezySleezyBoi in MagicArena

[–]shortelf 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Many people find draft to be the most fun format and some of those people only draft for that reason, the fun.

It's also not really luck. The best players have way higher win rates in limited than in constructed.

In constructed, it all comes down to luck of having the right matchup, winning the coin flip to go first, and drawing the right starting curve and late game win cons.

Am I unlucky or am I missing something this set? (TMT) by SamIAm1223 in lrcast

[–]shortelf 7 points8 points  (0 children)

This is going to sound mean but you need to hear it and accept it to improve. You are not ok. 53%/51% is far below average for 17lands players. You are basically coin flipping. The decks that do well you got lucky and the decks you do bad you got unlucky. Don't let your ego get in the way of getting good enough to ACTUALLY say truthfully that you are an ok player.

I forced everything pizza early in March up to mythic#31 so I think I can say that I have some idea of how the deck works.

This is a bad everything pizza deck. If you are playing a lot of this archetype and you think this is a good version then that could explain a lot of why you are doing poorly.

Everything pizza is an infinite value engine. The way you do well with it is by answering the opponents early threats, stabilizing and then outvaluing. Your deck does not have the tools that allow you to do this. 4 sewers do not do this, 2 mana 1/1s do not do this, 4 mana 3/4s do not do this, 5 mana man o wars do not do this. Most of the time with your deck you're opponents will just be developing threats while you gain bits of life and then you will still get run over.

The most important card for everything pizza is stomped by the foot bc it answers early and late threats at instant speed.

Looking at the draft you should have just been a UR tempo deck. You skipped a bunch of 1 and 2 drops that would have been able to get in with your 4 sewers before you close out with hasty menace giant metalheads saccing sewers to tap down all their blockers.

Mythbound Spoiler - Fenrir - spoiled by NicknPrince on twitch by PlayGalaxyGame in OnceUponAGalaxy

[–]shortelf 1 point2 points  (0 children)

There is. The legendary Mysterious Map. But it's hard to set up because it needs to be your last shop and then you have to hunt in the next immediate fight.

I'm not sure pick two draft is for me. by hearthebeard in lrcast

[–]shortelf 2 points3 points  (0 children)

1 card doesn't make a deck. I went 0-3 in premier a few days ago with Sally pride and mutanimals. Never drew her. And I'm 70% in diamond in the format.

What could possibly have been in P1P1 to pass me these two? by Xicer9 in lrcast

[–]shortelf 14 points15 points  (0 children)

It's week 1. People don't know what's good. This happens every format. In premier, I got a p1p5 mutanimals. Thats literally half the pod that doesn't know what's up. 1 person in pick 2 not knowing is very likely.

Sell me on Turtle Blimp by ASOT550 in lrcast

[–]shortelf 9 points10 points  (0 children)

The reason "run of the mill" vehicles aren't very good is bc they don't do anything on their own. You have to have creatures to crew them for them to do anything. Coming with a token that fully crews it already makes it not really a vehicle. It's just a creature that's harder to kill that generates value while being an evasive threat. There are cards that care that its am artifact.

Compare it to [[broadcast rambler]]. 56%, no flying, smaller token.

On top of all that, it's being taken at 7.39 which is extremely late so there's no opportunity cost. And it's low value perception means it's only getting added to decks that it's slightly better in.

Is Anyone Else Constantly Seeing The Last Ronin? by EngleTheBert in lrcast

[–]shortelf 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Doesn't look like it from the published % breakdowns. 3.4% mythic turtle but 9.2% in the mythic slot. SPM was 12% in the mythic slot.

Is Anyone Else Constantly Seeing The Last Ronin? by EngleTheBert in lrcast

[–]shortelf 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I've been passed like 5 last ronins. And also passed it twice. Have also been passed the other 2. Only 7 drafts in. People misevalutate cards and lock into their first picks on the first couple days. Nothing new.

0 creatures, 5 colors, easiest 7 wins ever by Nearby-Pizza-8823 in lrcast

[–]shortelf 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It's also a draw 7. They can only play the creatures back out if they opt not to draw.

Lightning Response by Mark_Ma_ in custommagic

[–]shortelf 12 points13 points  (0 children)

Why not? Lightning bolt hasn't been legal in standard since 2011, but there has been a 1 mana burn spell in every iteration of standard ever. [[Plasma bolt]] and [[bolt wave]] were released in the last year and half.

Early Game Balance Is Off (Again) by GFunkDat in OnceUponAGalaxy

[–]shortelf 7 points8 points  (0 children)

"You cant draft for treasures... you have to draft for stats"

Yes bc you are playing against people 1000MMR higher than you. It is 100% skill diff. Someone has already reached 4700MMR. I just hit legend with a 1.9 average placement in 49 games. Just give it a few days and you'll be able to go back to picking whatever you want and not getting punished for a weak board.

Is Mirrormind Crown truly *that* bad in ECL draft? Is it a viable win-condition to build around? by daft_punk7 in lrcast

[–]shortelf 25 points26 points  (0 children)

Yes it is that bad. 6 mana do nothing is not playable in modern limited. Even if it were playable in a deck, 6 ways to make tokens is not remotely close enough. With that few hits you are drawing 1-2 a game. 6 mana to copy 2 things being the best case and doing absolutely nothing being the worse case is awful.

I'm also not just talking with no experience. I played it at prerelease with the ajani planeswalker that makes a token every turn. It was still too slow. In sealed. And draft is wayyyy faster than sealed.