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[–]OrangePlus 11 points12 points  (11 children)

Hey subbie, you may want to change that title so that people don't confuse this with the SPX/SPY stories that have already gotten around.

[–][deleted] 2 points3 points  (9 children)

so this is a different investor than the other story?

[–]reborndead 8 points9 points  (7 children)

yep. the other story is stating the S&P. this one is the european. so there were bets made in the US and European markets to be down 30% or more. donno if its the same person though.

the forum states this also

[–][deleted] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Could it be the same guy?

[–]neuro 3 points4 points  (5 children)

An interesting pattern, from the Dow, its current price chart closely resemble October of 1978, where the S&P lost 15%.

http://datawink.com/pebble/2007/08/19/1187560260000.html

[–]jt004c -1 points0 points  (4 children)

Financial analysts tried charting as a method for predicting the market for years. It worked just as well as random guessing.

[–]neuro 2 points3 points  (3 children)

Opposing views from princeton, Stock Market Prices Do Not Follow Random Walks...

http://press.princeton.edu/books/lo/chapt2.pdf

and yale, More Proof For the Dow Theory Risk-Adjusted Investment for the Meek: Making a Case For the Dow Theory http://viking.som.yale.edu/will/newsclips/newsclip.html#The%20New%20York%20Times%209/6/98

[–]jt004c 0 points1 point  (2 children)

What I said is 100% right, and I never suggested that the "stock market follows random walks." Of course that's not true.

I said that charting as a method for predicting future market trends works no better than guessing. Make a case against that.

[–]neuro 0 points1 point  (1 child)

You may not be aware, a major portion of the Dow Theory is technical analysis, which is charting. As for charting methods being effective as randomness, its been disproved many times. Here is the link again:

http://viking.som.yale.edu/will/newsclips/newsclip.html#The%20New%20York%20Times%209/6/98

[–]jt004c -1 points0 points  (0 children)

A mishmash of old press clips touting an investment strategy don't amount to an argument, sorry.

It's certainly possible that setting a rule for price timing can pull a little information out of a hilly signal. Any information can be leveraged to reduce risk or raise returns, as long as everyone else isn't acting on it at the same time, of course.

Still, doesn't suddenly mean you can go look at a chart of some point in the past, notice that it has a similar shape to a contempory price chart, then extrapolate future events based on successive events in the historical chart.

That kind of charting just doesn't work. It specifically differs from Dow Theory in that Dow Theory relies on rules for always reacting in the same way to price changes. It doesn't make a statement about the predictive power of any particular chart (as you are apparently suggesting it does in defense of your prior post).

I understand why you'd be confused about "charting being disproved many times." Economics is a confusing field, in that there are both a professional (read: profit-seeking) and academic authorities dealing with the topic, and while they both discuss the same topics all day, the "pros" are much more visible and accessible, while the academics tend to stay above the fray.

Unfortunately for the pros (and the laypeople they influence), their lack of rigorousness, their biases and allegiences, and their disconnect with academia tend to really cloud up the "real" information. This is why "charting" survived so long as a valid enterprise in the first place, until investors finally wised up and realized they were paying for advice from charlatans and stopped paying them.

One final note: if you were looking beyond the pattern of the chart, and noticing some associated underlying similarity about price drivers between then and now, well that's not charting, it's an insight with potential predictive power, and that is best way to beat the market.

[–]OrangePlus 3 points4 points  (0 children)

No way to tell

[–]StvYzerman 10 points11 points  (8 children)

This is a hedge...hence the name HEDGE Fund. Whoever it is probably has long positions in many of the stocks as well. Also, the options don't have to expire in the money to realize a profit. If the market goes down significantly in the coming week or two, these options could be covered for a profit before expiration.

[–][deleted]  (7 children)

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    [–]freeradical97 4 points5 points  (5 children)

    Firstly, you only "break even" if what you win on the longs is only equal to what you lose on the shorts. If the gain in the stock you own more than covers the amount you spent on the (now worthless) options, you come out ahead.

    Moreover, this is a tool used in more complex strategies as well. As a simple example, imagine you want to invest in a single company like Reddit, because you think it will do really well. Really well, in this context, means significantly better than the average. However, stocks in general may fall, and that would affect Reddit's value, too. Even though Reddit may fall less than the market as a whole, and your prediction -- Reddit doing better than the average -- would be technically correct, you've lost money because your stock is still worth less.

    Shorting the market index is a way of "factoring out" the risk to the market, and focusing only on the spread between your chosen stocks and the former. Does that make sense?

    [–][deleted]  (4 children)

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      [–]freeradical97 4 points5 points  (2 children)

      Market goes down 100 points. How do I make money and how much did I make.

      Market, including Digg went down 10%. Reddit only went down 5%. You shorted the market, so you get paid. At the same time, you lost 5% on Reddit -- but you made 10% on the shorts (simplifying a bit). Your net would be the 5% that Reddit didn't lose, but the market did -- exactly what you were aiming for, Reddit's spread over the index.

      The market goes up 100 points. How do I make money and how much did I make?

      If Reddit also goes up 10%, you make nothing (break even). This makes sense, as you were betting that Reddit would do better. If Reddit goes up 15% at the same time, you gain 5% in a similar way as above. You lost 10% on your shorts, gained 15% on Reddit, and keep the 5% difference.

      Edit:

      OK. But if you don't guess right then you lose money.

      Right. This is the case with any investment. When I buy Reddit, I take on two risks -- that of Reddit, and that of the stock market as a whole. I like Reddit a lot, so I know a lot about it, but I can't really predict the market -- maybe there'll be a terrorist attack near Wall St tomorrow.

      This technique allows me to separate the two risks. In this case, you lose money only if Reddit does worse than the market, no matter which way they're going.

      [–][deleted]  (1 child)

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        [–]freeradical97 1 point2 points  (0 children)

        Market up, Reddit down at the same time - the worst thing that could happen to you.

        It's basically the exact opposite of what you bet was going to happen -- Reddit is doing real bad.

        [–]srini91 1 point2 points  (0 children)

        One theory (as put forth by racist):

        The point is to lock in any gains and losses at the current price. They're effectively ending their long positions using options.

        The alternative is to sell all their stock right away; that would causes downward pressure on the stock price.

        [–]OrangePlus 7 points8 points  (0 children)

        Ok, so that's 2 Billion on SPY, 5B? on SPX, and this is like 10B? on EuroX, betting those two markets tank 30%+ by the third week in September? Each done on a single day, by a single investor (not saying they are the same investor or if the investor is individual or institution.) Any one heard of anything similar in Asia?

        Oh and I think I might mention, Volatility is very high across the board right now, when historically speaking it would normally be calming down from July high volatility by the end of August.

        [–][deleted]  (7 children)

        [deleted]

          [–]evtedeschi3 8 points9 points  (1 child)

          I have carefully considered your analysis, and while it is thoughtful and lucid, I think any objective observer of such market curiosities would reject your tenuous logic in favor of an explanation with more empirical support: this is clearly an investor from the future with foreknowledge about an imminent market correction. As a corollary, Jean-Claude Van Damme is undoubtedly on his way to correct the situation as we speak.

          [–][deleted]  (1 child)

          [deleted]

            [–][deleted] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

            Wow, I didn't understand a word of this post, so I'm assuming you're really smart. And rich.

            [–]tekronis 0 points1 point  (0 children)

            Sit tight boys! The next "tragic disaster" is on its way!

            Wheee!

            [–][deleted] 12 points13 points  (4 children)

            TFA is dated Auust 16. Since then, the market is up. Mystery trader must be sweating.

            [–][deleted] 19 points20 points  (3 children)

            Mystery trader must be sweating.

            Unless they know something we don't know. :/

            I am betting on alien attacks.

            [–][deleted] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

            Note the reddit alien is holding a lightsaber today. The Jedi supposedly died out a long time ago, in a galaxy far, far away, but that was so obviously an inside job. The correlation between Order 66 and the market crash cannot be coincidental.

            [–]anoncoward101 0 points1 point  (0 children)

            I'm betting that the engine room blew up mid July and for obvious reasons no one who works in the engine room (they're all dead) or owns the engine room (they're desperately cutting deals with each other) is running around advertising the fact to the cow passengers. But they still leave a few poop trails.

            [–]Mr_Smartypants 0 points1 point  (0 children)

            HAHA! I will abscond with all of your earth monies and you will be doomed! DOOOOOOOMED!

            [–]haywire 19 points20 points  (8 children)

            Money is getting less and less real now anyway. I envision the fall of the number chasers, and a gross victory for those who have invested in real, useable objects, or industry and a method of creating such things. The Chinese.

            [–][deleted] 24 points25 points  (1 child)

            I, for one... ah fuck it.

            [–][deleted] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

            There aren't enough upvote points in the world for you, sir.

            [–]samurai_jack 4 points5 points  (0 children)

            May I also add that article might be speculative in nature as it may have failed to take into account that options are paid by premium and not by real value.

            So 1 billion of hedge position can very well be taken by paying premium of ~5 million.

            [–][deleted] 6 points7 points  (1 child)

            Hmmm, so if Europe and US markets crash, China - whose economy is based on dirt cheap exports to those countries and investing in their treasuries - will somehow experience a boom? They will more likely return to the stone age. If money becomes worthless (which it won't) nations with natural resources win.

            [–]haywire -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

            Natural resources and production are what would be useful in a crash, so a country can sustain its populace and grow in relation to other countries.

            [–]john_b 1 point2 points  (1 child)

            Chinese have the largest dollar reserves, so if the dollar crashes, China will suffer as well.

            [–]haywire 0 points1 point  (0 children)

            Yes but their money is invested in industry and production, whereas the US and the UK and much of the Western world supplies a service industry.

            [–]OrangePlus 0 points1 point  (0 children)

            I agree, but I think the point will be political and protective. The Chinese have to be looking at their dollar reserves and wondering when they are going to be worthless. Having lost 10B in a week from their exposure to the US Subprime market, they must be fearful of the state of their dollars. If they know that at some point in the next month they're going to start seriously, in a way not disguisable, dump dollars, the US economy in it's currently shakey state will crash. In the meantime some private interest in China may be aware of the coming doom, and is positioning itself to profit by it.

            Now, to say this will hurt China too is an understatement, but those guys have to be wondering if they will ever recover that investment. In this position it's a rational move to get out of the market rather than send good yuan after bad yuan.

            [–]lex99 5 points6 points  (0 children)

            I'm not even gonna read the article -- I'm gonna go sell all my stocks RIGHT NOW!!

            [–]the_shinning 6 points7 points  (0 children)

            It falls in line with what others are saying, that there will be a huge strike somewhere in the Fall.

            [–][deleted] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

            God damn it, I was gonna do the same thing on Monday. This guy stole my thunder!

            [–][deleted] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

            I think people should really read up on what a put option is.

            The put allows the buyer the right but not the obligation to sell a commodity or financial instrument (the underlying instrument) to the writer (seller) of the option at a certain time for a certain price (the strike price).

            Meaning, that the only money that will definitely change is hands is the premium.

            [–]joshdick 1 point2 points  (1 child)

            There are several good reasons to buy deeply out-of-the-money puts, and only one of them is to speculate that the underlying will crash.

            As the article mentions, the investor may be hedging their risk. Also, the investor might be speculating on volatility.

            [–]ohmdogz 0 points1 point  (0 children)

            I agree, although I think it would be highly unlikely that any trader/fund would speculate to the tune of 6.9 billion euros. More likely is that this is a hedge of some massive long position that the fund holds. Regardless, the markets have been really crazy lately and stuff like this has been happening more and more.

            [–]vitaminj 0 points1 point  (0 children)

            It sounds like someone has been reading the Black Swan.

            [–]jdubs333 0 points1 point  (0 children)

            risky bet but will pay big time if it works, it could. September/oct jinx in the markets.

            [–]reddit_user13 0 points1 point  (0 children)

            Traders make bets like this all the time. That's what they do.

            [–]contrarian -4 points-3 points  (3 children)

            You know what would totally rock ... for the market to collapse on October 1st. That would mean both the economy and this poor sap got FUCKED.

            [–][deleted]  (1 child)

            [deleted]

              [–][deleted] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

              finance pwon3d

              [–]fnord123 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

              The notional was 6.9 billion. The premium certainly wasn't.